The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
Fixygen identifies three basic scenarios for the cryptocurrency market in 2026. The baseline scenario for the cryptocurrency market at the beginning of the year looks like broad consolidation with periodic “spikes” on news about rates, ETF flows, and regulation.
A more positive scenario is the acceleration of institutional integration (access via ETP/ETF and platforms), the growth of stablecoin adoption and asset tokenization, as reported by Grayscale and Coinbase Institutional.
A negative scenario would be tightening financial conditions, risk-off sentiment in global markets, and increased regulatory risks, which could put pressure on high-risk assets even with strong fundamentals.
Global crypto market capitalization at the beginning of 2026 fluctuates around $3.1-3.2 trillion, with Bitcoin trading at around $90-91 thousand and Ethereum at around $3.1 thousand, according to industry aggregators and current quotes.
Expectations of rising storage prices are growing in the memory market: TrendForce predicts that contract prices for NAND Flash will increase by 33-38% in Q1 2026 compared to the previous quarter amid shortages and a shift in capacity toward server segment demand.
Separately, for the corporate segment, Nomura Securities (according to industry media reports) admits that SanDisk may raise prices for high-capacity 3D NAND for enterprise SSDs by more than 100% quarter-on-quarter in March 2026, which effectively means a doubling. However, a direct transfer of this dynamic to retail SSDs for PCs is not guaranteed — the segments are linked by production chains but differ in terms of contract structure and retail inventories.
There are no confirmed open sources confirming statements that hard drives will become “virtually unavailable” by March 2026. However, the HDD market is also becoming more tense: there have been reports of a rise in HDD contract prices of approximately 4% q/q in Q4 2025 and expectations of further pressure due to demand from data centers.
In Europe, the premium Samsung 990 Pro 1TB NVMe SSD is listed on price aggregators at around €153.99 in January 2026, while the mass-market WD Blue SN5000 1TB is listed at €119.99. If the “x2” scenario partially reaches the consumer segment, these levels could shift to around €240-320 per 1TB, depending on the model and supply channels.
In the US, the Samsung 990 PRO 1TB was priced at around $139.99 at major retailers, and the 8TB Seagate IronWolf HDD was priced at $199.99 on Newegg (higher at some retailers). With memory costs doubling and a persistent shortage, the upper price levels may become the “new normal,” but the speed of transfer to retail will depend on inventory levels and promotional activity.
In China, according to public displays and promotional materials, the WD Blue SN580 1TB was priced at around 405 yuan, and the Seagate IronWolf Pro 8TB was priced at around 1975 yuan at the end of December 2025. As the shortage intensifies, a growth scenario of tens of percent seems more realistic as a “base case,” while “x2” is more of a risk for individual corporate positions and periods of peak demand.
Hotel occupancy in the Carpathians in winter 2026 is expected to be 85-95%, and in cities — 50-65%, according to a study by the Ribas Hotels Group.
According to analysts, an increase in average hotel occupancy is expected in mountainous regions. With normal snow cover, peak occupancy in Bukovel will be 85-95%.
In cities, according to Ribas Hotels Group forecasts, hotel occupancy will be approximately 50-65%. Winter hotel occupancy in Odesa will reach 45-65% depending on the concept of the enterprise.
According to a survey conducted by the company, this year people prefer aparthotels and cottages that satisfy their need for privacy and autonomy. City business hotels are also in stable demand, allowing guests to work comfortably thanks to quiet areas and uninterrupted internet.
Among the trends is an increase in group bookings among different population groups. Stable demand in December and February comes from corporate groups. An increase in interest among families and friends is expected, with the number of family bookings likely to grow by 10–15% and the size of “groups of friends” from 4–6 to 6–8 people. This is why there is a growing need for family rooms, two-room apartments, and cottages, which necessitates booking rooms for groups in advance during peak dates. In 2026, a significant increase in the “booking window” is predicted — from 7–14 days to 21–35 days.
“Guests are taking vacation planning more seriously. In search of more favorable offers, they prefer early bookings with a fixed price,” the company’s analytics note.
This winter, there has been a 25-30% increase in direct bookings through the website. At the same time, although OTA platforms such as Booking, Expedia, etc. provide stable demand, their share is declining to 10-20% this winter season. The most effective booking channels are currently social networks (especially Instagram/Telegram) and quick sales through administrators and chatbots (up to 60%). This is due to their convenience, transparent special offers, more active advertising, and bonuses for repeat guests.
“For the first half of 2026, we predict the rise of major trends: guests’ desire for comfort and privacy, hyper-personalization of service, and the workation format (combining leisure with work). Due to affordability, people are traveling more often within Ukraine and spending more time on travel. A partial return of deferred demand is expected this winter season,” the study notes.
A number of factors influence the dynamics of domestic tourism: transportation prices, stability of energy supply in hotels, and healthy lifestyle trends. That is why the number of wellness hotels is actively growing in Ukraine.
Ribas Hotels Group is an international management company founded in 2014 in Odesa, whose flagship service is the operational management of hotel and restaurant complexes. The company also provides services in concept development, design, support for all stages of project implementation, consulting, and franchising for developers.
The company comprehensively manages and exclusively books 28 city, beach, and ski hotels under the Ribas Hotels, Ribas Rooms, WOL home + hotel, and Mandra Glampings brands. The operator’s total room capacity is over 1,000 rooms. In total, the portfolio includes more than 50 projects, including those in the design and construction stages. The company is also currently developing properties in Poland and Indonesia.
ICU Investment Group forecasts a slowdown in Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, while in July the company forecast GDP growth of 2.5% this year and 2.8% next year.
“Macroeconomic risks are under control, but economic recovery is slow,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast released on Tuesday.
ICU noted that the European Union’s (EU) decision to grant Ukraine a loan should provide the preconditions for macroeconomic stability, financing the budget deficit, and supporting the National Bank’s reserves in 2026-2027, as well as creating the basis for the implementation of a new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund for at least the next two years.
At the same time, according to the investment group, Ukraine will need additional bilateral loans and grants to fully cover its defense needs.
ICU expects economic growth to slow down primarily due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure from Russian attacks, electricity shortages, and complications with maritime exports, which will cause temporary downtime for large manufacturers.
Additional restraining factors include a gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as business hesitation to invest due to high security risks. Private consumption will remain the key driver of growth.
According to ICU’s forecast, annual inflation at the end of 2026 will be 6-7%, and the National Bank of Ukraine will move to ease monetary policy at the end of January with a cumulative reduction in the discount rate by 200 basis points during the year to 13.5%.
According to the company, the National Bank will slightly weaken the hryvnia in 2026 amid slowing inflation and growing external imbalances, and forecasts the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate at the end of next year at UAH 44.3/$1, which is slightly better than the July forecast of UAH 44.9/$1. Reserves, according to the investment group’s estimates, will remain at record levels thanks to EU funding.
According to ICU estimates, at the end of 2025, inflation will be 8.3%, the hryvnia exchange rate will be 42.4 UAH/USD, international reserves will be $53.1 billion, the current account deficit will be 18.2% of GDP, the budget deficit (before official grants) will be 22% of GDP, and public debt will be 101% of GDP.
For 2026, the company forecasts inflation at 6.3%, international reserves at $52.3 billion, a current account deficit of 16.8% of GDP, a budget deficit of 19% of GDP, and public debt of 109% of GDP.As reported, at the end of October, the National Bank downgraded its forecast for the country’s economic growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.9% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production facilities, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%.
Weather conditions may complicate the work of energy, construction, and utility companies, as well as transportation on Monday, December 29, according to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
“On December 29, there will be icy roads, on the right bank, except for Zakarpattia, wind gusts of 15-20 m/s, blizzard (level I danger, yellow),” the report says.
blizzard, FORECAST, icy roads, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
