According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat production in 2025 is forecast to reach around 809.7 million tons, which is 1.3% higher than in 2024.
The growth is expected to be driven by increased yields in Canada, Kazakhstan, China, and India, while southern Europe and North Africa remain at risk of lower production due to drought.
“The outlook for the global wheat market remains generally positive, and global stocks at the end of the season will remain stable despite active exports from the Black Sea region,” the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief notes in its October review.
Top 20 countries in the world by wheat production in 2025 (FAO and USDA estimates)
These twenty countries produce more than 90% of the world’s wheat.
Despite overall growth in yields, global wheat stocks could decline by 1.6% to around 312 million tons by the end of 2025. This is due to increased domestic consumption in Asia and the Middle East, as well as active exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Average global wheat prices remain volatile, but FAO analysts predict their relative stabilization while maintaining harvest and stock volumes.
Despite the war, Ukraine retains its status as one of the largest grain exporters. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the 2024–2025 marketing year, the country exported about 15 million tons of wheat, supplying it to Egypt, Indonesia, Spain, Turkey, and Tunisia.
Ukraine ranks 11th–12th in the world in wheat production and is among the top five global exporters thanks to its high yields and logistics routes through the Danube and Baltic ports.
A detailed overview of the world’s major wheat producers from 1970 to 2024 can be found in the Experts Club analytical video: Watch on YouTube
JSC “NAEK ”Energoatom” will be profitable in all three scenarios during 2025-2028, with profits in 2028 expected to be twice as high as in 2026-2027, due in particular to the expected rise in electricity prices.
This forecast is contained in the annual information on fiscal risks prepared by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine based on data from 12 state-owned companies as part of the adoption of the 2026 state budget. Within the document, basic, alternative, and negative scenarios are modeled for each company based on macroeconomic scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s economy.
“Net revenues from NAEK Energoatom to the state budget are expected in all scenarios and will grow as the company’s profitability increases,” the document says.
As noted by its authors, NAEK plans to build new power units in the long term and has plans in the medium term to attract sufficient debt financing to fund investments. However, construction will continue after the end of the medium-term period, and if such construction is financed through debt obligations, high costs are expected to increase the company’s obligations to a level that it may not be able to service.
“Fiscal risks may materialize if the government has to provide funding to cover part of these costs, or if the government has to service Energoatom’s debts,” the Ministry of Finance concluded.
Under the baseline scenario, Energoatom’s capital expenditures will average about UAH 59 billion per year from 2025 without budget financing, while expenditures on PSO for tariff compensation for the population will decrease by an average of 2.3% in the period 2026-2028.
In addition, the baseline scenario assumes an average increase in electricity prices of 7.9% per year, as well as a slight decrease in the company’s electricity production in 2026-2027, followed by an increase in 2028.
As the Ministry of Finance noted, NAEK received a net profit of UAH 1.3 billion in 2024, compared to a loss of UAH 11.3 billion in 2023. Last year, the company demonstrated a 35% increase in revenue due to a 33.5% increase in the weighted average price of electricity.
According to the results of 2024, the volume of PSO in Energoatom amounted to UAH 109.3 billion, or 53% of the company’s net income for that year.
Consulting agency UkrAgroConsult forecasts a 5.7% decline in sunflower harvest in the 2025 season to 13.3 million tons from 14.1 million tons in the previous forecast due to drought in southern and eastern Ukraine, the agency’s press service reported.
“Crop losses are mainly observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly affected crops. In contrast, the situation is more favorable in the northern and western regions, where rains have been regular. Sunflower yields are expected to increase during harvesting in the northwestern belt, as was the case with wheat and barley,” the agency said.
Analysts added that market estimates of the sunflower harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 million tons. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult sticks to the upper end of the estimate due to the expansion of acreage in the west and north after the start of the war. However, seed quality is a concern due to diseases caused by rains during harvesting in these regions.
UkrAgroConsult has more optimistic forecasts for corn.
“The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and crops in the south account for a small share. This year’s pollination and grain filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to last year, and periodic rains contributed to crop development,” experts said.
Market estimates of the corn harvest range from 28 million tons to 35 million tons, but at the end of July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons, or 6.6%, which is one of the highest figures on the market.
UkrAgroConsult’s wheat harvest forecast remains stable at 22 million tons. As of August 7, almost 15 million tons had been harvested from 74% of the planted area. The remaining 26% is in regions with the highest yields, which gives grounds for optimism, the agency concluded.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the 2025 vegetable harvest by 11.5% to 7.6 million tons, fruit and berry harvest by 11.1% to 1.8 million tons, and potato harvest by 3.4% to 19.4 million tons.
“Weather conditions in the spring of 2025 were unfavorable for harvests. Spring frosts covered a significant part of the country, causing particular damage to winter crops, fruit and berries, and vegetables,” the National Bank said in its updated Inflation Report published this week.
At the same time, compared to last year’s harvest, the National Bank estimates that this year’s vegetable harvest will be 11.5% higher, or 0.8 million tons, and potato harvest will be 10.7% higher, or 1.9 million tons.
However, the situation with fruits and berries is worse, and their harvest will be 12.4%, or 0.2 million tons, less than last year.
The National Bank also lowered its forecasts for vegetable crops in 2026 by 9.1% compared to the previous April Inflation Report, to 8.0 million tons, and for fruit and berries by 4.0%, to 1.9 million tons.
At the same time, the NBU slightly improved its expectations for next year’s potato harvest by 0.7% to 20.0 million tons.
Experts predict coffee prices to rise by up to 40% in 2025. The main reasons cited are drought in Brazil and abnormal rains in Vietnam, the largest coffee-producing countries, according to the FAO and the International Coffee Organization.
In 2024, the price of Arabica rose by 69%, reaching record levels and exceeding $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange in early 2025. Drought in Brazil led to a 10-11% drop in harvest, causing a shortage, while in Vietnam, the harvest fell by 10-20% due to droughts and heavy rains. The International Coffee Organization warns that market stabilization should not be expected until 2026-2028.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise by 10-20%, leading to higher prices in cafes and retail packaging. This will increase inflationary pressure, as rising coffee prices complement rising food prices. Experts note that producers will have to invest in drought-resistant varieties and new irrigation systems. There is also an increase in costs in the supply chain, including higher prices for fertilizers, logistics, and credit resources.
According to the FAO, global coffee production in 2023 amounted to about 11 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 31%, Vietnam for 18%, and Indonesia for about 7%. Global coffee consumption is growing by about 2% annually and is estimated at 177 million bags per year.
According to open data, the leaders in per capita coffee consumption are Finland (about 12-13 kg per year), Norway (about 10 kg), Iceland (9.8 kg), Denmark (8.7 kg), the Netherlands (8.4 kg), Sweden (8.2 kg), Switzerland (7.9 kg), Belgium (6.8 kg), Luxembourg (6.5 kg), and Canada (6.5 kg).
Rising coffee prices in 2025 could pose a serious challenge for both producers and consumers, and will increase interest in sustainable production and expansion of supply in order to stabilize the market in the face of a changing climate.
The Greek residential real estate market 2025 continues to show steady growth despite global economic challenges. Demand for housing remains high among both local residents and foreign investors, which contributes to higher prices and the development of new projects.
