In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for feed grain production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 400,000 metric tons compared to October—to 39.49 million metric tons—primarily due to a revision of the barley harvest estimate.
According to data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report dated November 10, the previous forecast for forage grain production was 39.09 million metric tons.
Since the corn harvest estimate remained unchanged at 31.8 million metric tons, the USDA currently estimates production of other feed crops—including barley, rye, oats, sorghum, and millet—at 7.69 million metric tons, up from 7.29 million metric tons in the October forecast.
Thus, the increase in the forecast for feed grain production in Ukraine is specifically linked to crops other than corn.
In the November report, U.S. analysts specifically noted an upward revision to the estimate for barley production in Ukraine.
At the same time, the forecast for total feed grain exports from Ukraine was lowered from 23.77 million to 21.77 million metric tons, or by 2 million metric tons.
The bulk of the reduction is attributable to corn, with exports projected at 20 million metric tons, down from 22 million metric tons in October.
Accordingly, projected exports of other feed grains total about 1.77 million metric tons and remain unchanged from the previous forecast.
Meanwhile, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks of all feed grains in Ukraine from 8.7 million to 11.1 million metric tons.
Of this total, 7.53 million metric tons are corn, while stocks of other feed crops are estimated at about 3.57 million metric tons, compared to 3.17 million metric tons in the October forecast.
According to a separate USDA Grain and Feed Quarterly report released on November 2, 2026, the barley harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 6.6 million metric tons, and the rye harvest at 326,000 metric tons on a bin-weight basis.
Globally, the USDA has raised its forecast for barley production in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons, to 161.1 million metric tons.
Growth is expected primarily in Australia and Ukraine, while the production forecast for Russia has been lowered.
An increase in global barley trade is also projected, driven in part by a rise in Australian exports.
Barley is one of Ukraine’s major grain crops. It is used in livestock farming, the feed and malting industries, and is also exported to foreign markets.
The increase in the harvest creates additional supply of raw materials for domestic consumption and export; however, realizing export potential will depend on demand and the capacity of the transportation infrastructure.
Sources: USDA, WASDE, November 10, 2026, p. 21 (PDF); USDA, Grain and Feed Quarterly, November 2, 2026 (PDF).
In its November forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 2 million metric tons compared to October—to 20 million metric tons—while maintaining its production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons.
The relevant data is presented in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the report, the reduction in projected exports is accompanied by a significant increase in expected corn stocks in Ukraine.
Specifically, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year from 5.53 million to 7.53 million metric tons, or by 36.2%.
For comparison, corn stocks at the start of the current marketing year stood at 2.92 million metric tons. Thus, according to the USDA’s forecast, they could increase approximately 2.6-fold by the end of the season.
U.S. analysts estimate domestic consumption of Ukrainian corn at 7.2 million metric tons, including 5.5 million metric tons for feed purposes. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the October forecast.
The USDA cites restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to foreign markets as the main reason for the downward revision of its export estimate.
The report notes that the war in the Black Sea region and the associated logistical difficulties continue to affect international grain trade.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for corn trade in the 2026/27 marketing year from 210.72 million to 209.38 million metric tons.
In addition to Ukraine, export forecasts have been reduced for the United States and India. At the same time, an increase in shipments is expected from Argentina, for which the export estimate has been raised from 38 million to 40 million metric tons.
The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter with a projected volume of 83.19 million metric tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million metric tons.
With a forecast of 20 million metric tons, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading suppliers of this crop.
The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year at approximately 1.292 billion metric tons, with ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons.
The growth in corn stocks in Ukraine is occurring against the backdrop of a stable harvest forecast; however, actual export volumes will depend on the operation of seaports, rail and road logistics, as well as demand in international markets.
For corn, the marketing year in Ukraine runs from October to September of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 23 (PDF).
In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised downward its forecasts for soybean production and exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY), while increasing its estimate for global trade in this crop.
This is according to data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the USDA, the forecast for global soybean production was reduced by 200,000 metric tons compared to the October estimate—to 442.5 million metric tons.
The main reasons for the revision were deteriorating harvest forecasts in Ukraine, South Africa, European Union countries, and Mexico.
This reduction is partially offset by an increase in expected soybean production in the United States and Colombia.
In particular, the forecast for U.S. production has been raised to 124.48 million metric tons due to improved expected yields.
Despite the decline in global soybean production, the USDA raised its forecast for international soybean trade by 550,000 metric tons—to 192.55 million metric tons.
The increase in global exports is expected primarily from the United States and Argentina.
At the same time, forecasts for soybean shipments from Ukraine, Uruguay, and South Africa have been revised downward.
According to the USDA’s estimates, U.S. exporters could ship 46.81 million metric tons of soybeans to foreign markets, while Argentine exporters could ship 6.75 million metric tons.
Brazil remains the world’s largest exporter, with a projected shipment volume of 118 million metric tons.
At the same time, the U.S. agency expects an increase in demand for soybean processing, particularly in Algeria, Colombia, Thailand, and Japan.
The forecast for global ending soybean stocks in the 2026/27 marketing year has been reduced by 800,000 metric tons to 123.5 million metric tons, primarily due to lower-than-expected stocks in the United States and Argentina.
Overall, the USDA estimates global production of all oilseeds at 721.9 million metric tons, which is 300,000 metric tons less than the October forecast.
The reduction in production estimates for soybeans, sunflowers, and some other oilseeds is partially offset by an increase in the projected rapeseed harvest.
For Ukraine’s agricultural sector, soybeans are an important export and oilseed crop used to produce soybean oil, meal, and feed products.
Changes in the USDA’s forecasts are significant for both soybean exporters and Ukrainian processing enterprises that purchase raw materials to produce higher-value-added products.
However, the text of the USDA’s November report does not provide specific figures for the revision of soybean production and exports for Ukraine specifically; therefore, it is impossible to assess the extent of the reduction based on this part of the document.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, pp. 2–3 and 28 (PDF).
In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 1 million metric tons compared to the October estimate—to 11.5 million metric tons— while simultaneously raising its harvest forecast by 500,000 metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons.
According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on November 10, the previous estimate for Ukrainian wheat exports was 12.5 million metric tons, and for production, 26 million metric tons.
Thus, U.S. analysts expect an increase in wheat production in Ukraine but forecast a reduction in its export capacity to foreign markets.
The USDA attributes the revision of the export forecast to restrictions on maritime transport in the Black Sea region resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to the agency’s assessment, wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia remain below long-term averages, despite the use of alternative ports and transport routes.
Against the backdrop of reduced export projections and an upward revision of the harvest estimate, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat ending stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million to 7.3 million metric tons.
By comparison, wheat stocks in Ukraine were estimated at only 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
At the same time, U.S. experts raised their forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat from 9.5 million to 9.8 million metric tons, including feed use, which was increased from 4.5 million to 4.8 million metric tons.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year by 310,000 metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons.
The reduction in projected exports from Ukraine and Russia is partially offset by increased shipments from Australia and Argentina.
Specifically, the forecast for Russian wheat exports was lowered by 1 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons. At the same time, the forecast for Australia was raised to 24.5 million metric tons, and for Argentina to 16.5 million metric tons.
The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production to 827.51 million metric tons and for ending stocks to 280.82 million metric tons.
The marketing year for wheat in Ukraine runs from July to June of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 19 (PDF).
In its November forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 2 million metric tons compared to October—to 20 million metric tons—while maintaining its production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons.
The relevant data are presented in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the report, the reduction in projected exports is accompanied by a significant increase in expected corn stocks in Ukraine.
Specifically, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year from 5.53 million to 7.53 million metric tons, or by 36.2%.
For comparison, corn stocks at the start of the current marketing year stood at 2.92 million metric tons. Thus, according to the USDA’s forecast, they could increase approximately 2.6-fold by the end of the season.
U.S. analysts estimate domestic consumption of Ukrainian corn at 7.2 million metric tons, including 5.5 million metric tons for feed purposes. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the October forecast.
The USDA cites restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to foreign markets as the main reason for the downward revision of its export estimate.
The report notes that the war in the Black Sea region and the associated logistical difficulties continue to affect international grain trade.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for corn trade in the 2026/27 marketing year from 210.72 million to 209.38 million metric tons.
In addition to Ukraine, export forecasts have been reduced for the United States and India. At the same time, an increase in shipments is expected from Argentina, for which the export estimate has been raised from 38 million to 40 million metric tons.
The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter with a projected volume of 83.19 million metric tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million metric tons.
With a forecast of 20 million metric tons, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading suppliers of this crop.
The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year at approximately 1.292 billion metric tons, with ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons.
The growth in corn stocks in Ukraine is occurring against the backdrop of a stable harvest forecast; however, actual export volumes will depend on the operation of seaports, rail and road logistics, as well as demand in international markets.
For corn, the marketing year in Ukraine runs from October to September of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 23 (PDF).
As of November 10, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 10.71 million metric tons of sunflowers, which is 22.8% higher than the figure for the same date last year, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
According to the ministry, sunflowers were harvested from an area of 4.80 million hectares, or 91.6% of the projected area. The average yield is 22.3 centners per hectare, compared to 18.9 centners per hectare a year earlier.
Compared to November 7, 2025, the crop’s yield increased by 18%, while the area threshed rose by 4%.
Last year, as of the same date, Ukrainian farmers harvested 8.73 million metric tons of sunflowers from an area of 4.61 million hectares. Thus, this year’s gross harvest already exceeds the corresponding figure for the previous season by approximately 1.99 million metric tons.
The main factor behind the increase in production was higher yields, while the expansion of threshed acreage provided additional growth.
Sunflowers remain Ukraine’s primary oilseed crop and the main raw material for enterprises in the oil and fat industry. Sunflower oil production is one of the key sectors of Ukrainian agricultural exports.
The increase in the gross sunflower harvest creates an additional raw material base for oil extraction plants. At the same time, actual processing and export volumes will depend on plant capacity utilization, energy supply, logistics, and market conditions.
As of November 10, Ukrainian farmers had harvested a total of 17.91 million metric tons of major oilseeds—sunflower, soybeans, and rapeseed.
Original source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, November 10, 2026.
