In Ukraine, in 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024 – June 2025), the harvest of seeds of major oilseeds will amount to 22.5 mln tonnes, up 3.8% compared to the previous season and higher than the forecast of 21.686 mln tonnes by the State Statistics Service, the industry association Ukroliyaprom said.
According to the industry association’s forecast, sunflower and soybean production is expected to grow this season, while the gross harvest of rapeseed may decline.
The largest increase in 2023/24 MY is expected for soybeans – 5.1 mln tonnes, up 7.5% compared to last year’s figure of 4.743 mln tonnes.
This growth is due to the increase in the planted area by 7.4% to 1.97 mln ha, while the oilseed yield will remain at the level of the previous season and amount to 25.9 c/ha, the experts explained.
According to the analysts’ forecast, the sunflower production in 2024 is expected to reach 13 mln tonnes, up 2% compared to 12.76 mln tonnes in the previous year. The yield of the oilseed will not change and will amount to 24.5 c/ha, while its area will expand to 5.3 mln hectares (+2%).
Ukroliyaprom forecasts the rapeseed harvest at 4.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower than in 2023/24 (4.184 mln tonnes). The projected decline in production will be due to a 4.3% decrease in oilseeds acreage to 1.37 mln ha, while rapeseed yield will remain at the level of last year and amount to 29.2 c/ha.
World grain production in 2023-2024 will be 1.2% higher than a year earlier, amounting to 2.846 billion tons, taking into account the increase in barley, rice and sorghum production, FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) predicts.
According to its review, global production of corn and wheat will decline, while barley, rice and sorghum production will increase. In addition, the recent unfavorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region are likely to lead to a decline in global wheat production, but this possibility is not yet reflected in the forecast.
At the same time, global grain stocks are likely to increase by 1.5% compared to the initial level and reach a record high of 897 million tons. Corn, barley, sorghum, and rice stocks are expected to increase, while wheat stocks may decline. The global stocks-to-use ratio is likely to remain at 30.9%.
In addition, the FAO revised its forecast for global cereal consumption in 2024-2025 by 0.5% to a new record level of 2.851 billion tons, which it explained by an increase in food consumption, especially rice.
Global grain trade will decline by 1.3% compared to the previous year to 481 million tons, due to lower prospects for corn trade. International trade in rice is expected to grow strongly, FAO predicts.
As of May 30, Ukraine sowed 5.5 million hectares with grains and legumes, and more than 7 million hectares with oilseeds, which is 98.3% of the forecast, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, 252.5 thousand hectares were planted with wheat (249 thousand hectares a week earlier), which is 102.6% of the plan, barley – 782.2 thousand hectares (781.6 thousand hectares) or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thousand hectares (162.1 thousand hectares) or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thousand hectares (162.1 thousand hectares) or 95.6%. or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thou hectares (162.1 thou hectares) or 95.6%. hectares (162.1 thou hectares) or 101.6%, oats – 163.7 thou hectares (162.7 thou hectares) or 100.7%, millet – 60 thou hectares (43.1 thou hectares) or 70%, buckwheat – 85.5 thou hectares (48.1 thou hectares) or 68%, corn – 3.809 million hectares.
According to the report, wheat was planted on 252.5 thou hectares, which corresponds to the previous week’s figure and is 102.6% of the plan, barley – 782.6 thou hectares (782.2 thou hectares) or 95.7%, peas – 162.5 thou hectares (101.6%), oats – 163.7 thou hectares (100.7%). The total area under wheat planted is 63.6 thou hectares (60 thou hectares), or 75%, buckwheat – 97.7 thou hectares (85.5 thou hectares), or 78%, corn – 3.895 mln ha (3.809 mln ha), or 100% of the plan, other grains and legumes – 87.3 thou hectares (84.4 thou hectares), or 94% of the plan.
Last week, the agrarians sowed 104.8 thou hectares of spring crops. A week earlier, this figure was 311.7 thou hectares, and 784.7 thou hectares the week before.
In addition, sunflower was sown on 5.124 mln ha, or 97% of the plan (a week earlier the figure was 4.958 mln ha), soybeans – on 1.932 mln ha, or 97% (1.83 mln ha), sugar beets – on 250.1 thou ha, or 97%.
Agrarians in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Kirovograd, Odesa, Poltava, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia regions have fully completed sowing of spring crops.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 74.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service reports.
According to the report, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer may make adjustments.
“The potential decline in the harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics) and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country,” the UGA explained and added that under such conditions, exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year will amount to 43.5 million tons.
According to the forecast of the UGA, in the ending season, exports of grains and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds.
The UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks will be about 2.4 mln tonnes.
According to the UGA, barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.6 mln tonnes (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at around 2 mln tonnes (this season barley exports are forecasted at 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage and dry conditions in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year’s 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 20.5 mln tons (in the current season, exports are expected to reach 26 mln tons).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 to reach 13.7 mln tons (in 2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes in the current season), while sunflower processing for vegetable oil could reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes. In the current season, processing will reach 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 mln tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 mln tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 mln tonnes).
As for soybeans, this is the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. The soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 mln tons in 2024 (4.9 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tons (in the current season it is expected to reach 3.3 mln tons).
As reported, the UGA estimated the harvest in 2023 at 82.8 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
As of May 23, Ukraine sowed 5.4 million hectares with grains and legumes, which is 96.4% of the forecasted spring crops for 2024, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, 252.5 thou hectares were planted with wheat (249 thou hectares a week earlier), which is 102.6% of the plan, 782.2 thou hectares with barley (781.6 thou hectares) or 95.6%, 162.5 thou hectares with peas (162.1 thou hectares) or 101.6%, 163.7 thou hectares with oats (162.7 thou hectares) or 100.7%. hectares) or 100.7%, millet – 60 thou hectares (43.1 thou hectares) or 70%, buckwheat – 85.5 thou hectares (48.1 thou hectares) or 68%, corn – 3.809 mln ha (3.57 mln ha) or 97% of the plan, other grains and legumes – 84.4 thou hectares or 91% of the plan.
Last week, the farmers sowed 311.7 thou hectares of spring crops. A week earlier, this figure was 784.7 thou hectares, and 912.9 thou hectares the week before.
In addition, sunflower was sown on 4.958 mln ha, or 94% of the plan (a week earlier the figure was 4.605 mln ha), soybeans – on 1.83 mln ha, or 92% (1640.9 mln ha), sugar beet – on 250.1 thou ha.
Ukraine will be able to harvest more than 4 mln tonnes of rapeseed in the season-2024, UkrAgroConsult analytical agency forecasts.
“The State Statistics Service released the official data on the rapeseed harvest in 2023 – 4.2 mln tonnes (+26% compared to 2022/2023 MY), but the export and domestic processing rates prove that the official statistics need to be reassessed,” the analysts said.
They reminded that the export of rapeseed and processed products continues to be at the record pace even in the last months of the season. During the 10 months of the season, the country exported 3586.2 thsd tonnes of rapeseed (+5% compared to 2022/23 MY), 134.1 thsd tonnes in April; 406.1 thsd tonnes of rapeseed oil; 351.9 thsd tonnes of rapeseed meal.
Experts believe that the 2024 rapeseed harvest can also be forecasted on the basis of the revised estimates, according to which it may reach more than 4 mln tonnes.
“Weather remains the key factor in the yield formation. The impact of the cold wave and night frosts on the soil in early May is yet to be assessed, so in the future, the forecast of rapeseed harvest may be reduced,” UkrAgroConsult said.
