Heavy rains in Brazil have degraded the quality of the new coffee crop and could lead to a shortage of high-quality Arabica beans on the global market, while futures for this variety have risen by approximately 35% since June, according to Bloomberg.
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of Arabica and accounts for about 45% of global production, so problems with harvest quality could affect the supply of premium coffee far beyond the country’s borders.
The main problem was extremely heavy rainfall during the harvest. In June, rains knocked a large number of ripe coffee cherries off the trees, after which they lay on waterlogged ground for several days, increasing the risk of fermentation, mold, and undesirable flavors.
According to Simao de Lima, president of the Expocacer cooperative—which unites more than 800 producers in the Cerrado Mineiro region in southeastern Brazil—the rains knocked down an average of about 20% of the coffee cherries, compared to the usual 5–7%.
Thus, this does not represent a 20% loss of Brazil’s entire harvest, but rather significant damage to the crop in one of the most important regions for the production of high-quality Arabica.
The situation was exacerbated by a second wave of rainfall in July. The rains fell on beans that had already been harvested and laid out to dry, forcing some producers to start the drying process all over again.
According to data from the meteorological company Vaisala, rainfall in certain areas of Brazil’s coffee belt in June and July reached 250–500% of the climate norm, and in some places, up to eight times more rain fell than usual.
Quality issues are already affecting the market. Arabica futures have risen by about 35% since June, offsetting a significant portion of the price decline since the beginning of the year.
In the physical market, high-quality Brazilian coffee is selling at a premium of up to 15 cents per pound compared to futures in New York.
The reduction in the volume of coffee meeting the delivery standards for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) certified warehouses in the U.S. and Europe could prove particularly significant.
In a typical year, approximately 30–35% of the Cerrado Mineiro region’s production meets ICE requirements. Following this year’s rains, de Lima estimates that this share could drop to 10–15%. Meanwhile, coffee stocks in ICE-certified warehouses are already approaching their lowest levels of this century.
This could intensify competition among international roasters for high-quality beans. Bloomberg notes that Brazilian Arabica is used, in particular, by companies such as Starbucks, Lavazza, and Illy.
However, it is still too early to speak of a general coffee shortage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects that in the season beginning in October, global coffee supply will exceed consumption by approximately 10 million bags, which would be the largest surplus in six years. One of the main factors is expected to be record production in Brazil itself.
Therefore, the market’s main problem lies not so much in the total volume of coffee as in the availability of high-quality Arabica. Major producers can partially offset the shortage by adjusting the composition of their coffee blends and sourcing beans from other regions; however, for the premium segment, the situation could lead to further increases in purchasing and retail prices.
Weather remains an additional risk for the market. Reuters notes the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, which in the 2026–2027 season could further increase volatility in the markets for coffee, cocoa, and other tropical agricultural commodities.
As of August 25, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 6.76 million hectares, or 58% of the projected area, and harvested 31.73 million metric tons of grain from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Wheat was harvested from 5 million hectares, yielding 24.61 million metric tons, with an average yield of 49.2 centners per hectare; barley was harvested from 1.46 million hectares, yielding 6.33 million metric tons, with an average yield of 43.4 centners per hectare. Peas were harvested from 297,000 hectares, yielding 786,900 metric tons, with a yield of 26.5 ts/ha.
Farmers in the Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk regions currently lead in terms of the gross harvest volume of grain and legume crops.
In the Odesa region, 4.82 million metric tons were harvested from an area of 1.19 million hectares, specifically: 3.22 million metric tons of wheat, 1.31 million metric tons of barley, and 285,000 metric tons of peas.
In the Kirovohrad region, 2.42 million metric tons have been harvested from an area of 556,000 hectares: 1.92 million metric tons of wheat, 412,000 metric tons of barley, and 82,000 metric tons of peas.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—2.63 million metric tons from an area of 634,000 hectares: wheat—2.02 million metric tons, barley—568,000 metric tons, and peas—37,000 metric tons.
The highest grain yields are currently recorded in the Khmelnytskyi (70.8 ts/ha), Sumy (60.1 ts/ha), and Vinnytsia (59.7 ts/ha) regions.
The rapeseed harvest is nearly complete—1.32 million hectares have been threshed, or 99% of the projected area, yielding 3.79 million metric tons of seed with an average yield of 28.6 centners per hectare.
In some regions, the harvest of buckwheat and millet has begun. For buckwheat, 0.65 thousand hectares have been threshed, yielding 0.9 thousand metric tons at a yield of 13.8 centners per hectare; for millet, 3.6 thousand hectares have been harvested, yielding 7.84 thousand metric tons at a yield of 21.8 centners per hectare.
The agricultural holding company “Astarta” has completed the harvest of early grain crops and winter rapeseed across an area of 54,000 hectares, yielding approximately 256,000 metric tons, the company reported.
According to the report, the agricultural holding harvested over 210,000 metric tons of wheat and 43,000 metric tons of winter rapeseed.
The average yield of winter wheat at Astarta was 5.4 metric tons per hectare, and that of winter rapeseed was 3.1 metric tons per hectare. The highest yields were recorded at Khmilnytske LLC in the Vinnytsia region—7.7 metric tons per hectare of winter wheat and 3.8 metric tons per hectare of winter rapeseed.
Andriy Zagorulko, Director of the Agricultural Holding’s Department of Crop Production, Logistics, and Mechanization, noted that the season was challenging due to unfavorable weather conditions and diseases affecting winter rapeseed.
Astarta has already begun preparing the soil for the winter crop planting season.
Astarta is a vertically integrated agribusiness holding company operating in seven regions of Ukraine and is the country’s largest sugar producer. The company’s portfolio includes five sugar refineries, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 214,000 hectares (including 129,000 hectares in the Poltava region, 42,000 hectares in the Khmelnytskyi region, and 16,000 hectares in the Vinnytsia region), and dairy farms with 30,000 head of cattle. The holding company also operates a soybean processing plant and a bioenergy complex in the Poltava region, as well as a network of six grain elevators.
Astarta’s net profit for 2025 fell 4.2-fold to $19.94 million, while consolidated revenue decreased by 23% to $472 million.
As of August 18, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 6.6 million hectares, or 56% of the projected area, and harvested over 30.8 million metric tons of grain from the new harvest, with an average yield of 46.8 centners per hectare, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
As of the same date in 2025, 6.18 million hectares had been threshed, the statement noted.
Wheat was threshed from 4,855.25 thousand hectares, yielding 23,822.36 thousand metric tons, with an average yield of 49.1 centners per hectare. Barley was threshed from 1,437.17 thousand hectares, yielding 6,239.99 thousand metric tons, with an average yield of 44 centners per hectare. Peas have been harvested from 295,66 thousand hectares, with 779,02 thousand metric tons collected and an average yield of 26.3 centners per hectare. Millet has been harvested from 1.2 thousand hectares, with 2.7 thousand metric tons collected and an average yield of 22.5 centners per hectare.
In terms of harvest volumes of early grain and legume crops, the Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv regions are currently leading.
In Odesa Oblast, 4,819.70 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 1,188.8 thousand hectares (wheat—3,223.30 thousand metric tons; barley—1,311.50 thousand metric tons; peas—284.90 thousand metric tons).
In the Kirovohrad region, 2,418.30 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 555.7 thousand hectares (wheat—1,923.80 thousand metric tons; barley—412.50 thousand metric tons; peas—82.0 thousand metric tons).
In the Mykolaiv region, 2,326,10 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 653.8 thousand hectares (wheat – 1,631,80 thousand metric tons, barley – 587.5 thousand metric tons, peas – 106.80 thousand metric tons).
The highest grain yields are currently being recorded in the Khmelnytskyi (69.9 centners per hectare), Sumy (59.8 centners per hectare), and Vinnytsia (59.5 centners per hectare) regions.
Rapeseed has already been threshed from 1,318.64 thousand hectares, yielding 3.7 million metric tons of seeds with an average yield of 28.5 centners per hectare.
The “Agrain” Group of Companies has begun sowing winter rapeseed for the 2027 harvest, for which it has allocated over 18,000 hectares this season, the company’s press service reported.
The farms in the Chernihiv cluster were the first to begin planting—work there started in early August. In the Odesa and Kharkiv clusters, they are waiting for sufficient productive moisture to accumulate in the soil.
“We only plant when there is sufficient moisture in the topsoil. We constantly monitor weather conditions and adjust the pace of work depending on the situation in each region. Our goal is to complete sowing within the optimal timeframe, ensure uniform emergence, and create the right conditions for plant development before winter sets in,” the press service quotes Chief Agronomist Taras Korniyenko as saying.
“Agrain” is engaged in the cultivation and storage of grain and oilseed crops, as well as livestock farming. Prior to the full-scale Russian invasion, the agricultural holding comprised 11 agricultural enterprises; that number has now grown to 13. The group of companies cultivates approximately 110,000 hectares in the Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy regions.
The group includes two large grain elevators and two mini-elevators, with a combined capacity of 320,000 metric tons. The agricultural division comprises nine enterprises. Four enterprises are engaged in livestock farming. The beef cattle herd numbers 5,500 head, and the dairy herd numbers 1,750 head, including over 800 milking cows.
The holding company is owned by SAS Investcompagnie (France).
AGRICULTURAL HOLDING, GRAIN, HARVEST, planting season, RAPESEED
The “TAS Agro” agricultural holding has completed the harvest of early grain and oilseed crops on a total area of 33,500 hectares, the company’s press service reported.
Winter wheat was harvested from 21,000 hectares with an average yield of 5.8 metric tons per hectare. Winter rapeseed was harvested from 12,500 hectares with an average yield of 3.6 metric tons per hectare.
“This year’s rapeseed harvest was one of the most impressive results of the season. The company used strip-till technology across all its fields, which—combined with precise planning, high-quality crop protection, and the team’s prompt decision-making—enabled us to achieve high yield figures,” the statement noted.
As the company clarified, part of the rapeseed harvest has already been sold in western markets, while another portion will be sent for processing and subsequent export. TAS Agro plans to sell wheat using a flexible model depending on the price ratio between crops and market conditions.
The company has already begun preparations for planting winter rapeseed.
The “TAS Agro” agricultural holding is part of the “TAS” Group, which was founded in 1998. Its business interests span the financial sector (banking and insurance segments) and the pharmaceutical industry, as well as manufacturing, real estate, and venture capital projects.
Serhiy Tihipko is the founder of “TAS” and the beneficial owner of the “TAS Agro” agricultural holding.
