Soybean exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) may decrease by more than a third and amount to about 2.7 million tons due to the expected reduction in crop production, the possible impact of export duties, and the continued attractiveness of processing, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Experts recalled that Ukraine exported 3.97 million tons of soybeans during September-July 2024-2025 MY, which is 28% more than in the same period last year and set a new record for the season.
“The significant increase in export rates was achieved primarily thanks to the record harvest of this crop in the country in 2024, as well as attractive prices and geographical proximity to key global importers,” analysts explained.
At the same time, in their opinion, the record pace of soybean shipments in the summer may be stimulated by the expected introduction of a 10% duty on soybeans from September 2025, if the Ukrainian president signs the relevant bill.
Among the top buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in the current season, experts named Turkey (968,600 tons, up 39% from the previous season), Egypt (673,000 tons, down 31%), and the Netherlands (546,000 tons, up 2.7 times).
“In total, in the 2024/25 season, soybean exports from Ukraine could reach about 4.1-4.2 million tons (+26%), which could be a new record for the industry,” APK-Inform concluded.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the 2025 vegetable harvest by 11.5% to 7.6 million tons, fruit and berry harvest by 11.1% to 1.8 million tons, and potato harvest by 3.4% to 19.4 million tons.
“Weather conditions in the spring of 2025 were unfavorable for harvests. Spring frosts covered a significant part of the country, causing particular damage to winter crops, fruit and berries, and vegetables,” the National Bank said in its updated Inflation Report published this week.
At the same time, compared to last year’s harvest, the National Bank estimates that this year’s vegetable harvest will be 11.5% higher, or 0.8 million tons, and potato harvest will be 10.7% higher, or 1.9 million tons.
However, the situation with fruits and berries is worse, and their harvest will be 12.4%, or 0.2 million tons, less than last year.
The National Bank also lowered its forecasts for vegetable crops in 2026 by 9.1% compared to the previous April Inflation Report, to 8.0 million tons, and for fruit and berries by 4.0%, to 1.9 million tons.
At the same time, the NBU slightly improved its expectations for next year’s potato harvest by 0.7% to 20.0 million tons.
Agroholding Agrotrade has already threshed over 2,500 hectares, which is 14% of the total plan for early crops, with the largest areas processed in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, the agroholding’s press service reported on Facebook.
Agrotrade reminded that in the 2025 season, winter wheat accounts for 85% of the harvest structure, and winter rapeseed accounts for 15%.
“In the Kharkiv region, winter wheat yields have been reduced due to frosts, but the Sumy and Chernihiv regions are gradually evening out the overall picture. We started harvesting on drier plots and expect higher yields on later varieties. Overall, we expect to meet the plan with a slight overrun. Winter rapeseed yields average about 3.5 tons per hectare — despite the weather, the results are in line with expectations,” said Oleksandr Ovsyanyk, director of the agro-industrial department at Agrotrade.
According to him, the best results are in Chernihiv region, where rapeseed yields are 111% of the plan, and in Kharkiv region, where winter wheat yields in some fields are over 5.4 tons/ha, so the plan is being met at 106%.
The Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding company covering the entire agricultural cycle (production, processing, storage, and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70,000 hectares of land in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions. Its main crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a total storage capacity of 570,000 tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn, sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand, Agroseeds.
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
Sunflower production in Ukraine in 2025 will not exceed 13.6-13.7 million tons, which is only 7% higher than in 2024, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Analysts noted that weather conditions continue to reduce the yield potential of sunflower in Ukraine, particularly in the south and east of the country, where up to 50% of the total area under this oilseed crop is concentrated. Cool weather in the spring and critically low soil moisture reserves in these regions, combined with insufficient rainfall, have created unfavorable conditions for the development of oilseed crops.
According to their information, a number of farmers report that crops are in very poor condition: uneven plant growth in the field, delayed vegetation, small heads, as a result of which decisions are being made to disc these fields and prepare for winter sowing. In a number of regions, crops suffered from high temperatures in July, and hail was also reported locally.
Experts noted that crop losses in the south and east may be offset by expected better sunflower yields in the center, as well as in the west and north, where temperatures and precipitation were more favorable.
They are convinced that a significant increase in the cost of sunflower seeds in the new season should not be expected.
“First, many factories are changing their operating strategies to avoid losses and negative margins, as in the 2024/2025 season. Second, the low cost of sunflower oil, whose trade slowed in the 2024/2025 season due to lower production. Thirdly, plants will now have an advantage in the form of export duties on soybeans and rapeseed, which may contribute to an increase in the supply of oilseeds on the domestic market,” APK-Inform concluded.
In 2025-2026 marketing year (MY), the Association “Ukroliyaprom” forecasts the production of oilseeds in the amount of 22 mln tons of oilseeds, which can be fully processed at domestic oil extraction plants (OEP), the press service of the association reports.
According to the industry association, in the current season Ukraine can harvest 13.0 mln tons of sunflower, 3.0 mln tons of rapeseed and 6.0 mln tons of soybeans.
“With the current capacities in Ukraine (excluding the temporarily occupied territories and the war zone), the entire harvest can be processed domestically,” Ukroliyaprom emphasized and added that they are hopeful about this after the adoption of the soybean-rape amendments, which provide for the introduction of an export duty on rapeseed and soybeans.
At the same time, the association said that they do not expect farmers and cooperatives to send the entire soybean and rapeseed crop for processing at the first stage.
Ukroliyaprom predicts that in 2025/26 MY, the mills will be able to process 1.5-1.6 mln tons of rapeseed and 3-3.2 mln tons of soybeans.
On July 16, the EBA highly appreciated the adoption of the draft law No. 13157 “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine in connection with the adoption of the Law of Ukraine ”On Integrated Prevention and Control of Industrial Pollution“ in the second reading, which contained ”soybean-rape” amendments. They provide for the establishment of an export duty on rapeseed and soybean seeds in the amount of 10% from the 1st day of the month following the adoption of the law.
“The adoption of this draft law in terms of establishing an export duty on rapeseed and soybeans will increase their processing and increase exports of high value-added products. Finally, Ukraine has created conditions for maximum processing of major oilseeds (sunflower, soybean, rapeseed) at domestic facilities,” the business association emphasized.
Ukroliyaprom reminded that since 1998 it had considered the introduction of a duty on oilseed exports as its main goal, which has finally been achieved. From now on, the industry association proclaimed the main task to maximize the processing of rapeseed and soybean seeds starting from 2025/26 MY.
As reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasted the harvest of rapeseed at 3 mln tonnes, soybean – 5.7 mln tonnes, sunflower – 20 mln tonnes in 2025 MY.
The production acreage in Ukraine in the 2025 season will be identical to last year’s, plus 270,000 hectares of demined land, said First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky.
“Overall, the production areas will be the same as last year. An additional 270,000 hectares have been demined. But in terms of our total sowing area of 20 million hectares, this is 1%. So, for basic crops, to which we will add sugar beets and vegetables, farmers will have 20 million hectares. This confirms that we are working in all possible areas,” he said at a meeting of the Trend&Hedge Club on Wednesday.
According to Vysotsky, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food expects to harvest 21.2 million tons of wheat in 2025, compared to 22 million tons a year ago, which is 5% less. The ministry estimates wheat exports at 15-16 million tons.
According to him, the barley harvest will amount to approximately 4.5 million tons, which is 10% less than in 2024, with exports at 2.2-2.3 million tons.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy does not expect any problems with buckwheat and promises that the domestic market will be supplied and the surplus exported.
The ministry is not yet ready to make final forecasts for grain corn, as the active growing season is still underway. However, departmental analysts adhere to a conservative forecast of 26 million tons, which is also at least 5% less than last season.
“We see grain at around 54.5-53.5 million tons.
This is plus/minus 5%,” Vysotsky emphasized.
He added that the rapeseed harvest in the 2025 season is expected to be 3 million tons, compared to 5.7 million tons in 2024, soybeans – 5.7 million tons, compared to 6.6 million tons, and sunflowers – 20 million tons.
Vysotsky noted that the greatest doubts about harvest volumes currently concern sunflower, as the crop is suffering from drought in the south of the country, and these regions may lose up to 6% of their harvest, which could lead to a reduction in the gross harvest to 15 million tons or less.
In total, the oilseed harvest in Ukraine in 2025 will amount to 20.5 million tons, the first deputy minister of agricultural policy concluded.
