Ukrainian farmers will harvest about 56 million tons of early grain crops and 21 million tons of oilseeds in the 2025 season, according to Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky.
“In principle, in terms of early grain crops, production is expected to be around 26 million tons, which is slightly less than last year. The decrease is due to the fact that in the southeastern regions, the yield of winter wheat and rye is, unfortunately, lower due to drought,” he said on Ukrainian Radio.
Speaking about the corn harvest, which will begin in September, the deputy minister noted that the harvest is also expected to be good. At the same time, corn crops in the southeast — parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions — have been virtually lost. However, the main corn belt of Ukraine — Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kyiv regions and further west, despite late sowing and late emergence, thanks to precipitation and optimal temperature conditions, has produced good plants.
“Ultimately, the corn harvest will be quite good on a national scale. We can talk about about 28 million tons, which is more than last year,” Vysotsky said, adding that the final forecast figure of 56 million tons of gross grain harvest is in line with last year’s level.
According to him, farmers will receive about 21 million tons of oilseeds in 2025, which corresponds to the 2024 figure. The production structure will include slightly more sunflower and less soybeans.
The deputy minister also noted favorable purchase prices for agricultural products.
“From a farmer’s point of view, prices are high, really good. Even now, at the time of harvest, they are not falling and are holding steady. Where there were no force majeure circumstances and no losses, these prices are really worthy as a result of working the land,” he stressed.
Speaking about livestock products, Vysotsky noted the stable situation with the production of all types of meat, eggs, and milk.
He recalled that due to the cold spring, horticulture suffered losses in the 2025 season.
“Yes, there were losses in orchards, in the early group, but for late varieties, the indicators may be slightly better and at the level of last year. In the domestic market of Ukraine, a decrease in apple prices is expected in the near future. Currently, they are holding steady because last year’s harvest is being sold. The cost includes long-term storage. But starting in September, the situation will change and stabilize by the end of October. Depending on the final harvest, the prices will be completely different,“ Vysotsky said.
According to him, the situation with vegetables is similar.
”We are approaching the mass harvest (of vegetables – IF-U). We see that the price is reacting and will decline. But there are no prerequisites for it to fall below cost. Vegetables will be more affordable for consumers, but with a normal economic effect for the producer,” Vysotsky concluded.
Let’s track the prices as of the end of June 2025 for the main grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, as well as fluctuations in their value on the world market.
The price of wheat (France, FOB) was 235 USD/t, according to market operators on June 25, 2025. This is 1 USD less than last week, 6 USD more than the previous month, and 3 USD more than the previous year. The price of wheat (Ukraine, 2nd grade, CPT) for the central regions (June 26) was 192 USD/t. This figure remained unchanged during the week, decreased by 15 USD over the month, and increased by 45 USD over the year. For ports, the amount was 206 USD/t, which is 3 USD less than a week ago and 18 USD less than a month ago, but 19 USD more than a year ago.
According to the International Grains Council, the price of corn (USA, FOB) as of June 25 was 192 USD/t. This is USD 8 less per week and USD 16 less per month, but USD 3 more per year. The price of corn (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for the central regions was USD 204/t. It did not change during the week, but decreased by USD 4 per month and increased by USD 73 per year. For ports, it was 216 USD/t (also unchanged from the previous week, down 16 USD from the previous month, and up 3 USD from 2024).
“Let’s pay attention to the forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY. It has been reduced by 1 million tons to 1,276 million tons, compared to 1,225 million tons in the current season. However, the forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 1,269 million tons. Therefore, the estimate of final corn stocks has been lowered by 2 million tons (to 282 million tons). This will exceed the current season’s figure by 7 million tons,” said grain market analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
As for the price of barley (France, FOB) as of June 25, it stood at USD 216/t. This is USD 6 less than a week ago and USD 5 less than a month ago, but USD 11 more than a year ago. Let’s analyze the price changes for barley (Ukraine, CPT). As of June 26, the price was (central regions) – 171 USD/t. This is 3 USD more per week and 46 USD more per year, but 30 USD less per month. For ports, the price is 188 USD/t, which is 6 USD more per week, 40 USD more per year, but 2 USD less per month.
Prices for major grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, end of June 2025
According to Oleksandr Serhiyovych Korenitsyn, the price of sunflower seeds in the EU (Rotterdam, FOB) as of June 25 was USD 655/t. The changes are as follows: +5 USD per week, -14 USD per month, and +170 USD per year. The price of sunflower seeds (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 (central regions) was 509 USD/t. This is 8 USD less per week and 16 USD less per month, but 109 USD was added to the price per year. For ports, the cost is 507 USD/t. The price fell by 6 USD per week and rose by 9 USD per month and 148 USD per year. A ton of sunflower oil (Ukraine, FOB) costs 1,111 USD as of June 26.
The cost increased by $8 per week and by the same amount per month.
The calculation of price fluctuations for soybeans is based on its cost as of June 25 (Brazil, FOB) – $420/t. It decreased by $10 per week and by $16 per year, but increased by $15 per month.
“The price of soybeans (Ukraine, CPT) in the central regions was 349 USD/t on June 26, which is 8 USD less than a week ago, 4 USD less than a month ago, and 23 USD less than in 2024. The price for ports is 368 USD/t. It decreased by 14 USD, 13 USD, and 10 USD over the week, month, and year, respectively,” said analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
The price of rapeseed (France, FOB) on June 25 was $557/t. Price changes: down $9 per week, up $7 per month, and up $55 per year. The cost of rapeseed (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for central regions is 497 USD/t (up 106 USD per year), for ports – 531 USD/t (up 110 USD per year).
agricultural sector, COST, DOLLAR, EXPORT, HARVEST, Oleksandr Korenitsyn, PORT, PRICE, SOYBEANS
Consulting agency UkrAgroConsult forecasts a 5.7% decline in sunflower harvest in the 2025 season to 13.3 million tons from 14.1 million tons in the previous forecast due to drought in southern and eastern Ukraine, the agency’s press service reported.
“Crop losses are mainly observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly affected crops. In contrast, the situation is more favorable in the northern and western regions, where rains have been regular. Sunflower yields are expected to increase during harvesting in the northwestern belt, as was the case with wheat and barley,” the agency said.
Analysts added that market estimates of the sunflower harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 million tons. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult sticks to the upper end of the estimate due to the expansion of acreage in the west and north after the start of the war. However, seed quality is a concern due to diseases caused by rains during harvesting in these regions.
UkrAgroConsult has more optimistic forecasts for corn.
“The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and crops in the south account for a small share. This year’s pollination and grain filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to last year, and periodic rains contributed to crop development,” experts said.
Market estimates of the corn harvest range from 28 million tons to 35 million tons, but at the end of July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons, or 6.6%, which is one of the highest figures on the market.
UkrAgroConsult’s wheat harvest forecast remains stable at 22 million tons. As of August 7, almost 15 million tons had been harvested from 74% of the planted area. The remaining 26% is in regions with the highest yields, which gives grounds for optimism, the agency concluded.
In 2025, the apple harvest in Ukraine will decrease by 7.6% compared to last year, to about 1 million tons, according to the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) in its annual report Prognosfruit 2025.
The decline is primarily due to spring frosts that affected a number of European countries. In Europe, the most serious decline is expected in Greece (-51.5%), Romania (-39.5%), and Serbia (-26.7%).
At the same time, production is expected to increase in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Belgium, which will partially offset the decline in the affected countries.
According to WAPA estimates, total apple production in the European Union in 2025 will amount to 10.46 million tons, which is 7.5% below the average level of recent years but almost at the level of 2024. Among the varieties, the largest declines are expected for Red Delicious (-19.2%) and Idared (-8.8%), while Golden Delicious will decline by only 0.9% and Gala will maintain last year’s volumes.
Soybean exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) may decrease by more than a third and amount to about 2.7 million tons due to the expected reduction in crop production, the possible impact of export duties, and the continued attractiveness of processing, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Experts recalled that Ukraine exported 3.97 million tons of soybeans during September-July 2024-2025 MY, which is 28% more than in the same period last year and set a new record for the season.
“The significant increase in export rates was achieved primarily thanks to the record harvest of this crop in the country in 2024, as well as attractive prices and geographical proximity to key global importers,” analysts explained.
At the same time, in their opinion, the record pace of soybean shipments in the summer may be stimulated by the expected introduction of a 10% duty on soybeans from September 2025, if the Ukrainian president signs the relevant bill.
Among the top buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in the current season, experts named Turkey (968,600 tons, up 39% from the previous season), Egypt (673,000 tons, down 31%), and the Netherlands (546,000 tons, up 2.7 times).
“In total, in the 2024/25 season, soybean exports from Ukraine could reach about 4.1-4.2 million tons (+26%), which could be a new record for the industry,” APK-Inform concluded.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the 2025 vegetable harvest by 11.5% to 7.6 million tons, fruit and berry harvest by 11.1% to 1.8 million tons, and potato harvest by 3.4% to 19.4 million tons.
“Weather conditions in the spring of 2025 were unfavorable for harvests. Spring frosts covered a significant part of the country, causing particular damage to winter crops, fruit and berries, and vegetables,” the National Bank said in its updated Inflation Report published this week.
At the same time, compared to last year’s harvest, the National Bank estimates that this year’s vegetable harvest will be 11.5% higher, or 0.8 million tons, and potato harvest will be 10.7% higher, or 1.9 million tons.
However, the situation with fruits and berries is worse, and their harvest will be 12.4%, or 0.2 million tons, less than last year.
The National Bank also lowered its forecasts for vegetable crops in 2026 by 9.1% compared to the previous April Inflation Report, to 8.0 million tons, and for fruit and berries by 4.0%, to 1.9 million tons.
At the same time, the NBU slightly improved its expectations for next year’s potato harvest by 0.7% to 20.0 million tons.
