According to its annual report, the Astarta agricultural holding achieved a gross harvest of grain and oilseed crops of approximately 0.6 million tons in 2025, matching the previous year’s result.
“Climate instability, logistical constraints, and rising costs prompted the Company to increase acreage for crops with predictable sales and stable economics, such as corn and sunflower. However, unfavorable weather put significant pressure on crops, reducing productivity,” the company’s report noted.
The holding revised its crop rotation structure in response to climatic and logistical factors. Corn acreage more than doubled—to 12,000 hectares—resulting in a harvest of 94,000 tons of grain (+134% compared to 2024), while sunflower production increased by 32%—to 61,000 tons.
The soybean harvest decreased by 27%—to 122,000 tons (including the 2026 harvest), and the rapeseed harvest by 23%—to 31,000 tons due to weather anomalies. The sugar beet harvest amounted to 1.8 million tons, which is only 2% less than the previous year thanks to a 12.2% increase in yield, which almost completely offset the 13% reduction in acreage. Wheat production fell by 9% to 237,000 tons amid a reduction in acreage and a slight decline in productivity.
Yields for the holding’s main crops generally exceeded the national average. The yield for corn was 7.6 t/ha compared to 7.2 t/ha nationwide, and for wheat, 5.2 t/ha compared to 4.5 t/ha. A gap was also recorded for sunflowers—2.1 t/ha versus 1.9 t/ha—and rapeseed—2.8 t/ha versus 2.7 t/ha—while sugar beet yields stood at 55 t/ha.
In 2026, Astarta plans to expand its corn acreage by 66%, to 20,000 ha, and increase winter rapeseed acreage by 36%, to 15,000 ha, compared to last year. A reduction in acreage is expected for sunflowers by 20% to 23,000 ha, wheat by 15% to 39,000 ha, and sugar beets by 6% to 32,000 ha. The area under soybeans will remain stable at 56,000 hectares, which is 1.7 times less than the peak figure of 70,000 hectares in 2024.
“The condition of winter crops is generally satisfactory, as the insulating snow cover protects the plants from severe cold. Significant moisture reserves also create the potential for higher yields of spring crops,“ the agricultural holding noted.
”Astarta” is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in seven regions of Ukraine and is the country’s largest sugar producer. The company’s portfolio includes five sugar refineries, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 214,000 hectares (including 129,000 hectares in Poltava, 42,000 hectares in Khmelnytskyi, and 16,000 hectares in Vinnytsia regions) and dairy farms with 30,000 head of cattle. The holding also operates a soybean processing plant and a bioenergy complex in Poltava Oblast, as well as a network of six grain elevators.
Astarta’s net profit for 2025 fell 4.2-fold to $19.94 million, while consolidated revenue decreased by 23% to $472 million. The agriholding’s EBITDA fell by 37% to $100 million, with a margin of 21%. The company’s net debt doubled over the past year and stood at $226 million at the end of the period.
According to Serbian Economist, FAS/USDA forecasts corn production in Serbia for the 2025/2026 marketing year (beginning in October 2025) at 7.1 million tons, with a harvested area of 950,000 hectares.
Corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 2.5 million tons, domestic consumption at 4.25 million tons, and ending stocks at 827,000 tons. The report notes that demand for Serbian corn on FOB terms from Danube ports is being held back by strong competition from Ukraine and Russia.
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Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY) are projected at 4.1 million tons. This is 14% less than the previous season’s figure, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) reported on Facebook.
According to analysts, the main reason for the decline was a reduction in raw material volumes. Specifically, in the current season, the total area planted with sunflowers was 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous MY. Difficult weather conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, led to a decrease in yield to 2.0 t/ha.
“As a result, the seed harvest is expected to reach 10.1 million tons. This is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years,” experts predict.
Due to the smaller harvest, UCAB estimates processing volumes at 10.1 million tons, meaning oil production will drop by 13.1% to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the domestic market will consume only about 240,000 tons of the product.
“Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population migration, and military operations. Therefore, the vast majority of the product will be exported,” explained UCAB, noting that in 2025, sunflower oil alone generated the highest foreign exchange revenue among the entire agricultural sector.
The association expressed confidence that despite the negative production trends, Ukrainian sunflower oil retains its position as a key export commodity in the EU, Middle East, and Asian markets.
The gross grain harvest in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 marketing year (MY, July-June) is forecast at 58.7 million tons, which is 4% lower than the current season’s figures, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to analysts’ March estimates, the wheat harvest is expected to reach almost 20 million tons, which is 14% less than in the current season. Barley harvest may amount to 5.1 million tons (-5%), while corn production is forecast at 31.8 million tons, which is 3% higher than last year.
“This forecast is based on the reduction in the area sown with winter crops due to the drought in the fall and unfavorable weather conditions in February this year, which may lead to the partial destruction of winter crops in some regions, as well as a possible slight increase in the area sown with corn due to the replanting of winter crops amid high demand for this grain,” the agency explains.
At the same time, despite the expected decline in gross harvest, experts estimated the export potential of grains in 2026/27 MY at 42 million tons, which is 4% more than in 2025/26 MY. The growth in supplies to foreign markets will be facilitated by high carryover stocks from the current season, which may amount to 11.4 million tons, APK-Inform concluded.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
Coffee prices fell on Thursday amid expectations of a high harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee supplier.
Arabica futures fell 0.2% to $3.0785 per pound at the end of trading in New York yesterday. This is the lowest price in five months.
Brazil’s new coffee crop, which will begin harvesting in a couple of months, could reach a record 75.8 million bags, Reuters reports, citing a forecast by EISA. One bag weighs 60 kg.
EISA expects the Arabica coffee harvest to amount to 48 million bags and the Robusta harvest to amount to 27.8 million bags.
