Ukraine’s construction market is showing mixed trends at the start of 2026: infrastructure and engineering construction remains the main driver, while the residential and part of the commercial segments continue to face pressure from rising costs, limited effective demand, and military risks. However, complete official statistics for January–March 2026 have not yet been published: according to the statistical agencies’ calendar, construction data for January–March is expected to be released in late April, so the current picture as of April 10 is based primarily on January–February results and related first-quarter indicators.
After a 12% increase in the volume of completed construction work in 2025—to UAH 248.1 billion—the market entered 2026 with a higher base, but growth rates began to level off as early as the first few months. In January, the volume of construction work grew by 3.3% year-over-year to UAH 11.254 billion, while building construction declined by 6.5%—including residential construction by 12% and non-residential construction by 4%—while civil engineering added 15.5%. Based on the results for January–February, the market already showed a 1.8% year-over-year decline to UAH 23.04 billion: the residential segment fell by 11.5%, the non-residential segment by 9.5%, while civil engineering structures, conversely, grew by 8.5%.
Rising construction costs remain a separate factor putting pressure on the market. According to the State Statistics Service, in February 2026, prices for construction and installation work rose by 7.2% compared to February of last year, and by 6.5% for the January-February period. In residential construction, price growth over two months was 6.1%, in non-residential construction—6.9%, and in civil engineering—6.4%. This means that even if certain growth areas remain stable, the profit margins of developers and contractors remain under pressure, especially in projects where sales prices or budget limits cannot keep pace with rising construction costs.
The residential segment, meanwhile, continues to present a mixed picture. On the one hand, the National Bank noted in its January inflation report that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of projects where construction began rose by 19% year-over-year, including a 77% increase in residential projects, and the number of buildings commissioned increased by 21%, including residential housing—by 40%. On the other hand, the NBU noted in its December Financial Stability Review that sales in unfinished projects remain sluggish, especially in the early stages of construction and in less secure regions, and housing prices in most regions are changing only slightly, indicating subdued demand.
Preferential mortgages remain a key support mechanism for the primary market. As of early April 2026, banks had issued 2,152 loans totaling 4.19 billion UAH under the “eOselya” program since the start of the year, and a total of 24,765 families have purchased housing since the program’s inception, for a total of 43.1 billion UAH. At the same time, in just one of the latest weekly reports, 101 out of 158 loans were for “first-sale” housing, including 48 loans for apartments in buildings under construction. This confirms that part of the demand for new housing in 2026 continues to be driven by state-subsidized mortgages.
According to Maksim Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, in January–March 2026, the Ukrainian construction market entered a phase of more complex but more mature growth. “It is no longer possible to speak of a single construction boom. Ukraine is effectively operating in three parallel markets: the first is reconstruction and engineering infrastructure, where demand remains stable; the second is the locally active residential segment in relatively safe regions; the third consists of frozen or very slow-moving projects in high-risk zones. The main trend at the start of 2026 is not simply volume growth, but a redistribution of capital toward infrastructure, logistics, industrial, and social real estate,” Urakin believes.
In his assessment, the market will depend on three factors in the coming months: continued funding for reconstruction, the sustainability of the “eOselya” program, and companies’ ability to maintain construction costs. “If state and international reconstruction programs maintain their pace, and mortgage instruments continue to support primary demand, the construction sector will be able to remain in positive territory in 2026. But without an expansion of long-term financing and a reduction in military risks, the housing market will grow in isolated pockets rather than across the board,” noted the founder of Experts Club.
Overall, the start of 2026 shows that Ukraine’s construction market remains vibrant and adaptable, though its growth is becoming increasingly segmented. Infrastructure, logistics, and restoration projects are performing the most steadily, while mass residential construction still depends on security, affordable mortgages, and developers’ ability to finance projects amid rising costs.
CONSTRUCTION MARKET, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, URAKIN
In the fourth quarter of 2025, housing prices in the European Union rose by 5.5% year-on-year, and by 5.1% in the eurozone. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, growth stood at 0.8% for the EU and 0.6% for the eurozone. Eurostat released the latest data on April 7.
Among EU countries, an annual price decline was recorded only in Finland, at 3.1%. The highest growth rates were seen in Hungary, where housing prices rose by 21.2%, Portugal, by 18.9%, and Croatia, by 16.1%. On a quarterly basis, prices rose the most in Slovenia (5.1%), Hungary (4.2%), and Portugal (4.0%), while declines were observed in France, Finland, and Estonia.
New statistics confirm that the European housing market remains in a phase of sustained price appreciation following the 2023 correction. According to Eurostat, after negative trends in the second and third quarters of 2023, price growth in the EU resumed and by 2025 had once again settled above the 5% mark on an annual basis.
A broader analysis of Eurostat’s housing data shows that this is not a short-term spike but part of a long-term trend. By the end of 2024, housing prices in the EU were 53% higher than in 2010, while rents rose by 25% over the same period, and inflation stood at 39%. Separately, in its statistical review for Q4 2025, Eurostat notes that from 2015 to the end of 2025, housing prices in the EU rose by 64.9%, while rental rates increased by 21.8%.
For the market, this means that real estate in the EU is appreciating faster than both consumer prices and rents, and the main pressure is now shifting to countries in Central and Southern Europe, where growth rates are significantly higher than the European average. Against this backdrop, investors and developers are likely to continue focusing on markets with double-digit price growth, primarily in Hungary, Portugal, and Croatia.
An analysis of the Bulgarian real estate market conducted by the Open4business portal showed that the growth in housing prices in Bulgaria has slowed, but foreign demand remains significant.
The pace of housing price growth in Bulgaria began to slow after a very strong surge throughout 2025, although the market itself remains in a growth phase. According to data from the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria (NSI), housing prices rose by 15.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, by 15.5% in the second quarter, and by 15.4% in the third quarter, indicating that the rate of price increases remains high but is no longer accelerating.
An additional factor driving growth in 2025 was the expectation of Bulgaria’s transition to the euro on January 1, 2026. As early as the end of 2025, Bulgarian media and market participants explicitly noted that some buyers were expediting their decisions specifically in anticipation of the currency change, which spurred activity in the housing market.
Foreigners continue to play a significant role in the Bulgarian real estate market, particularly in resort and coastal locations. However, it is important to note that complete official Bulgarian government statistics on homebuyers by citizenship for 2025–2026 are not publicly available. The most frequently cited recent breakdown of foreign demand is based on data from the Bulgarian Real Estate Association and market surveys. According to these estimates, in 2024–2025, the most active foreign buyers included citizens of the United Kingdom, Germany, Greece, Israel, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Russia, Ukraine, and Poland.
According to the same market data, Ukrainians rank among the top 10 foreign homebuyers in Bulgaria. Their demand is driven both by relocation due to the war and by investment interest, primarily in properties on the Black Sea coast and in tourist regions. Among the most sought-after destinations are Varna, Burgas, Nessebar, as well as the mountain resorts of Bansko and Pamporovo.
The market continues to be supported by a price base that is relatively low by EU standards. Even after the recent growth, Bulgaria remains one of the most affordable housing markets in the European Union, which continues to attract foreign capital and sustain demand for apartments both for personal use and for rental purposes.
In the near term, the most likely scenario appears to be a further slowdown in price growth rather than a sharp decline. While the market grew at double-digit rates in 2025, a transition to moderate growth—roughly in the range of 5–7% per year—seems more realistic for 2026. This forecast is based on the already noticeable slowdown in growth rates, the high-base effect, and the fact that the euro has already been introduced and a significant portion of speculative demand was likely realized in advance.
According to Serbian Economist, Serbia’s real estate market continued to grow through the end of 2025: in the fourth quarter, the total volume of transactions reached €2.4 billion, marking the highest quarterly level since the Real Estate Price Register was established. This was reported by the Republic Geodetic Institute of Serbia (RGZ).
According to RGZ, in October–December 2025, the market value rose by 9% year-over-year, and the number of purchase and sale agreements increased by 6.9%, to 37,386. Apartments accounted for €1.4 billion, or 61% of the total value of all transactions.
Regionally, the number of transactions in the fourth quarter rose by 10.9% in Belgrade and by 5.8% in Kragujevac, while a decline of 6.5% was recorded in Niš and 8.7% in Novi Sad. A total of €768.5 million was spent on apartment purchases in Belgrade alone during this period.
The most expensive apartment of the quarter was sold in the municipality of Savski Venac for €1.4 million, with an area of 90 square meters, while the maximum price per square meter in the same municipality reached €15,298. The most expensive house was also sold in Savski Venac for €1 million, and a parking space for €60,000.
Earlier, RGZ reported that as early as the first quarter of 2025, the market showed a 9.3% increase in value alongside a 2.4% decline in the number of transactions, indicating further appreciation of assets. By the end of the year, this trend persisted, but the market simultaneously returned to growth in the number of transactions.
Vera Yegorova-Tolsta, owner of the real estate agency VIDOVSTAN, also noted the market’s growth in her review. Overall, RGZ data show that even with local fluctuations in individual cities, Serbia’s real estate market remained one of the most stable segments of the country’s economy through the end of 2025.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2490
Administrative barriers are one of the key factors slowing down the entry of new housing into the market, said Yevhen Favorov, head of the Ukrainian Association of Developers, during a roundtable discussion.
According to him, the government has now become one of the key drivers of housing demand in Ukraine: programs offering subsidized mortgages, compensation for destroyed housing, programs for military personnel, and other government initiatives are generating significant effective demand. However, the market cannot respond to demand immediately, since by the time a building is commissioned, 80–90% of the most liquid apartments have usually already been sold.
“If the government wants to secure additional housing stock for its programs, it will take time—at least 2–4 years, a significant portion of which is devoted to the administrative preparation of the project,” Favorov noted.
According to him, the association he heads conducted its first annual industry survey of developers, in which 120 respondents participated—owners, executives, and specialists from development companies, who collectively account for one-third of the total supply in the primary residential construction market. According to the survey results, the average duration of administrative project preparation—from land registration to obtaining a construction permit—is approximately 14.4 months; land rights registration takes 13.3 months; and obtaining urban planning conditions and restrictions (UPC) takes an additional 9.78 months.
Respondents cited problems with obtaining UCRs (35%), difficulties in the area of land and property relations (30%), instability of permits and their revocation (24%), difficulties in obtaining technical specifications (22%), as well as constant changes to rules, requirements, and legislation (20%).
Among the procedures that, according to developers, most need optimization at the state level, the top priorities are cultural heritage protection (49%), cadastral and land procedures (29%), access to urban planning information (28%), and digital services and registries (26%).
During the discussion, Olena Shulyak, Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on the Organization of State Power, Local Self-Government, Regional Development, and Urban Planning, emphasized that the problem with administrative permits is much deeper than simply a matter of administration or the speed of document issuance.
“Urban planning permits have effectively become a quasi-licensing tool that creates corruption risks, reinforces the monopoly of local authorities, and in some cases places developers in a dependent position,” Shulyak believes.
At the same time, she believes a systemic solution to this problem is impossible without up-to-date urban planning documentation—digitized and made public at the national level—so that the market has access to clear and transparent rules. The MP also called for a resolution to be submitted to the government as soon as possible, one that establishes a mechanism to address unjustified refusals by local authorities to issue building permits and empowers the State Architecture and Urban Planning Inspectorate (DIAM) to act as an arbitrator in such situations.
Oleksandr Novytskyi, Head of the State Architecture and Urban Planning Inspectorate (DIAM), added that the set of technical specifications and utility connections requires separate reengineering—with a transition to a unified digital process and a “single window” for the client.
Market representatives, in turn, confirmed that the absence or long-standing rejection of urban planning documentation has not only regulatory but also direct economic consequences: land plots are not being developed, investments are being postponed, and housing supply is not reaching the market in the necessary volume.
The survey results will serve as the basis for the association’s future advocacy work in collaboration with the government and the professional community.
According to the project Relocation.com.ua, citing data from idealista with reference to Banco de Portugal, foreigners invested €3.905 billion in Portuguese real estate in 2025, setting a new record and exceeding the 2024 level by 10.4%. Against this backdrop, the total inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Portugal, conversely, fell by 34.9% to €8.51 billion, while the share of real estate in total FDI rose to 45.9%, or nearly half of all foreign capital.
The geography of this capital remains fairly predictable. The largest volume of accumulated foreign investment in Portugal is concentrated in Greater Lisbon—€113.2 billion, followed by the North of the country—€37.2 billion, and the Algarve—€21.7 billion; together, these three regions account for 80.5% of the total foreign investment stock.
Among the countries from which capital flowed in 2025, Luxembourg stood out—€1.1 billion, the United Kingdom—about €900 million, and Germany—€800 million. At the same time, Banco de Portugal itself notes that jurisdictions such as Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain often serve as intermediary platforms, so the ultimate sources of funds may differ from the country of the direct counterparty.
But if we look not at investment capital but at actual real estate transactions, the picture becomes clearer. The latest detailed official breakdown from INE shows that in 2024, foreign families purchased 38,552 houses and apartments in Portugal, which is 6.7% more than in 2023 and 19.2% higher than the 2019 level. That said, foreigners still remained a minority in the market: in total, families purchased 134,540 properties, of which 95,988 were bought by buyers of Portuguese origin. Among foreign buyers, Brazilians led the way with 7,694 transactions, followed by Angolans with 4,054 and the French with 4,016. Separately, INE noted a rapid increase in the number of Americans: the number of their purchases rose from 537 in 2019 to 1,707 in 2024.
If we broaden the picture and look at all major foreign groups residing in Portugal, it becomes clear that the market demand is much broader than just traditional buyers from Brazil, France, or the United Kingdom. According to AIMA, 1,543,697 foreigners were residing in Portugal as of the end of 2024.
The largest community was Brazilians—484,596 people, followed by Indians—98,616, Ukrainians—79,232, Nepalese—58,086, and British—48,238.
The mortgage market adds a distinct dimension to this picture. According to Banco de Portugal, in 2024, 10.1% of people who took out a mortgage for their primary residence were foreigners. Brazilians again led the way, accounting for 38% of all foreign borrowers; they were followed by Angolans and British nationals. In terms of loan amounts, Brazilians accounted for 30% of foreign mortgage volume, the British for 7%, Americans for 6%, and the French and Italians for 5% each. This shows that in Portugal, foreign demand has long been driven not only by purchases with personal funds but also by full-scale lending.
That is precisely why the Portuguese market should now be viewed from two perspectives. In the first, foreign capital has indeed set a record and continues to fuel the real estate market even after the abolition of “golden visas” for housing. Second, the composition of actual foreign demand is becoming increasingly diverse: as before, Brazilians, Angolans, French, British, and Americans are the most active buyers, but within the country’s demographic structure, the role of Ukrainians, Indians, Nepalese, and other new communities is becoming increasingly prominent. For the market, this means one thing: the foreign presence in the Portuguese housing market is not weakening, but changing form.
https://relocation.com.ua/foreigners-break-record-in-portugals-housing-market/
