The Ukrainian economy in 2026 maintains relative macrofinancial stability thanks to international support and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions. However, low GDP growth rates, an increasing foreign trade deficit and a shortage of labor resources remain the main obstacles to its recovery.
This is stated in an analytical review of the main economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, presented on November 6, 2026, by Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
The study mainly covers indicators for January-July 2026 and the second quarter, as well as certain statistical revisions published after the end of the reporting period.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, compared with the first quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, the economy grew by 0.3%.
Thus, after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, the Ukrainian economy returned to positive dynamics, but the pace of recovery remains insufficient for the rapid restoration of production potential.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, while for 2027-2028 it expected growth to accelerate to approximately 2.8-3% annually.
Foreign trade remains one of the main challenges. According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January-July 2026 amounted to $82.2 billion, including exports of $24.1 billion and imports of $58.1 billion. The merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $34 billion.
China remained the largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, with products worth $16.8 billion imported from the country. Poland ranked next with $5.5 billion, followed by Germany with $3.8 billion.
The main markets for Ukrainian products were Poland, Turkey and Germany. At the same time, food products accounted for approximately 58.5% of Ukraine’s total merchandise exports.
According to Urakin, to reduce the structural trade deficit, Ukraine needs to increase the production of high-value-added goods, develop the processing industry and create new export capacities.
International reserves remain an important factor in macrofinancial stability. As of August 1, 2026, their volume amounted to $51.2 billion, remaining virtually unchanged in July.
At the same time, the National Bank sold approximately $4.76 billion on the foreign exchange market during the month, indicating the economy’s significant need for foreign currency.
The inflation situation also remains difficult. In July, consumer prices increased by 7.7% year-on-year, compared with 7.2% in June. Core inflation stood at 8.1%, while services inflation reached 13.7%.
In the budgetary sphere, defense financing remained the main priority. Over seven months, UAH 1.63 trillion, or 63.2% of expenditures from the general fund of the state budget, was allocated to security and defense.
At the same time, international grant assistance credited to the general fund amounted to UAH 569.6 billion.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt reached UAH 9.57 trillion, or approximately $214.2 billion, at the end of July. At the same time, the predominance of concessional international financing helps contain the cost of servicing this debt.
Despite the difficult economic situation, certain sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. In particular, agricultural production in January-July increased by 17.2% compared with the same period in 2025.
The average nominal wage in July amounted to UAH 32,243, which was 21.7% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, employers continue to face a shortage of qualified workers, primarily in industry, construction and logistics.
The review also analyzes the economic situation in the United States, the European Union, China, India, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s July forecast, the global economy was expected to grow by 3% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027.
In the second quarter of 2026, the eurozone economy, according to revised data, increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, while the UK’s GDP grew by 0.4%.
China recorded economic growth of 4.7% in the first half of the year, while India’s GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year in April-June.
At the same time, annual inflation in Turkey remained at 31.75% in July, significantly exceeding the figures recorded in most other major economies.
According to the founder of Experts Club, global trends confirm the growing importance of technological development, industrial modernization and investment in production.
For Ukraine, the localization of production, development of the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, mechanical engineering, energy autonomy and digital technologies remain particularly important.
Urakin believes that Ukraine’s future economic policy should be aimed not only at covering current budgetary needs but also at creating new productive assets capable of ensuring long-term growth.
In his assessment, it is precisely the transition from dependence on external financing to the development of domestic production and exports of high-value-added products that should become the foundation for the sustainable postwar recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
Maksym Urakin’s full analytical review, “Main Economic Indicators of Ukraine and the World as of Late July – Early August,” was published on November 6, 2026, on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Source: Interfax-Ukraine, analytical review dated November 6, 2026.
Thailand has launched a new digital system for issuing Long-Term Resident (LTR) visas, which allow foreign investors, affluent retirees, and highly skilled professionals to reside in the country for up to ten years. Since the program’s launch in September 2022, authorities have approved more than 12,000 applications, estimating the total economic impact at $1.28 billion.
The system integrates the Department of Consular Affairs, the Immigration Bureau, the Department of Employment, and the Thai Revenue Department.
Previously, applicants had to interact with several government agencies, which complicated the process of obtaining visas and work permits.
The new platform, launched in September 2026, enables centralized document processing and information sharing among agencies.
Additionally, foreign investors and professionals can contact the Thailand Investment and Expat Services Center (TIESC), located in the One Bangkok business complex in Bangkok.
According to the BOI, 12,010 foreign nationals have been approved for an LTR over the four years the program has been in effect.
U.S. citizens rank first in terms of the number of approved applications—more than 2,400 people.
Japan ranks second with more than 1,300 approvals, and the United Kingdom ranks third with over 1,000.
A significant portion of Japanese participants are highly qualified specialists working in Thailand’s automotive, electronics, and other technology sectors.
The largest category of LTR recipients is wealthy retirees. According to published statistics, the breakdown of program participants is as follows:
Wealthy Pensioners—4,561 people.
Dependents of primary recipients—3,891.
Highly-Skilled Professionals—1,779.
Professionals working remotely for foreign companies (Work-from-Thailand Professionals) – 1,043.
Wealthy global citizens – 737.
Among visa recipients in the two professional categories, 54% hold executive positions, while another 36% are specialists in various fields.
However, the BOI’s published report does not provide specific data on the number of Ukrainian citizens participating in the program.
According to the Board of Investment’s estimates, over four years the LTR program has contributed approximately 43 billion baht, or $1.28 billion, to Thailand’s economy.
On average, each visa recipient accounts for more than 3.6 million baht, which is equivalent to approximately $107,000 in economic impact.
This calculation includes direct foreign investment, domestic living and consumption expenses, visa fees, and tax revenues from highly skilled professionals.
Thus, the figure of $1.28 billion does not mean that the entire amount entered Thailand exclusively in the form of foreign direct investment.
BOI Secretary-General Narit Therdsterasukdi noted that the program helps attract international specialists and corporate executives needed for the development of high-tech industries.
In particular, Thailand is interested in expanding semiconductor production and developing artificial intelligence, robotics, the aviation industry, biotechnology, and modern electronics.
The Long-Term Resident Program covers four main categories of foreign nationals: high-net-worth investors, affluent retirees, specialists working remotely for foreign companies, and highly skilled professionals.
Each category has specific requirements regarding income, net worth, investments, professional activities, and health insurance.
In January 2025, the Thai government had already relaxed a number of eligibility requirements for the program.
In particular, the mandatory requirement of at least five years of professional experience was eliminated for highly qualified professionals and remote workers.
For remote workers, the minimum revenue requirement for the foreign employer was lowered from $150 million to $50 million.
For high-net-worth investors, the focus shifted from a mandatory annual income of $80,000 to holding assets and making long-term investments in Thailand totaling at least $500,000.
These changes have expanded the pool of potential program participants; however, the new 2026 digital portal does not, in and of itself, waive the existing financial requirements.
The LTR visa grants the right to reside for up to ten years: the permit is initially granted for five years and may then be extended for another five years, provided the established conditions are met.
Among the program’s benefits are simplified immigration reporting procedures, the ability to obtain a digital work permit for eligible categories, and certain tax benefits.
The cost of processing an LTR in Thailand after approval is 50,000 baht. Submitting the application and its preliminary review are free of charge.
However, the LTR is a long-term visa and does not automatically grant permanent residency or Thai citizenship. In addition to the LTR, the country continues to use special visa programs for foreign company executives and technology entrepreneurs, including the BOI Visa and the Smart Visa.
The Thailand Board of Investment views these mechanisms as part of the government’s policy to attract foreign capital and skilled workers and to develop the country’s technology sectors.
Kyiv hotels are expanding their range of services for corporate clients by offering long-term accommodations for employees that ensure conditions for uninterrupted work. Against the backdrop of risks of power and water outages, companies are increasingly turning to hotels as an alternative to traditional offices.
In particular, the Kyiv hotels “Ukraine” and “Dnipro,” which are part of the ARS Capital investment holding, are developing a format that combines accommodations, workspace, and self-sufficient infrastructure. This model allows for the temporary accommodation of both individual specialists and entire corporate teams.
Both hotels are equipped with powerful generators, electric boilers for heating, autonomous water supplies, and fiber-optic internet. According to the holding company, this allows them to maintain the operation of essential life-support systems and create conditions for professional work even during disruptions in the centralized supply of utilities.
The new format is primarily aimed at companies for which stable access to electricity and the internet, as well as the ability to organize work processes in a single location, remain critically important.
Instead of renting separate office space and searching for housing for employees, companies can accommodate their teams in hotels, combining work and living needs. This is particularly relevant for businesses that require uninterrupted operations or are forced to temporarily relocate due to infrastructure issues.
ARS Capital reports growing interest in long-term accommodations from corporate clients. In particular, business representatives are considering the possibility of temporarily relocating entire teams to hotels.
“We are already seeing growing interest in this format from businesses seeking to provide their employees with stable, safe, and comfortable conditions for work and rest,” said Maxim Krippa, CEO of the investment holding company ARS Capital.
According to him, the development of this trend meets the new needs of the corporate segment amid the war, when infrastructure autonomy and the ability to quickly set up workspaces have come to the forefront.
The “Ukraine” and “Dnipro” hotels are open to long-term contracts with corporate clients. Accommodation conditions and workspace arrangements are expected to be determined on a case-by-case basis depending on the number of employees, the duration of stay, and the specific needs of each company.
The development of this format could become an additional source of occupancy for the capital’s hotel infrastructure. Alongside traditional temporary lodging services, hotels gain the opportunity to work with corporate clients who require comprehensive solutions for staff accommodation and work organization.
At the same time, for Ukrainian businesses, using hotel infrastructure as a temporary office could be one way to ensure business continuity amid energy and other infrastructure risks.
ARS Capital is an investment holding company that owns the “Ukraine” and “Dnipro” hotels in Kyiv. The company is developing a line of business focused on long-term accommodations for corporate clients using the self-contained infrastructure of its hotel complexes.
Switzerland is investing approximately $36 million (30 million Swiss francs) in the development of a competitive and sustainable private sector in Ukraine as part of the “CORE: Competitiveness for Ukraine’s Recovery 2026–2031” program, with Ukrainian businesses and organizations receiving the majority of these funds in the form of grants.
According to the Ministry of Economy and Environment of Ukraine following the program’s presentation in Kyiv on November 4, funding is provided through the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), and the program is implemented by a consortium of Helvetas and NIRAS in cooperation with the International Labor Organization (ILO).
Grant support is provided under four main components: the development of regulatory solutions and public-private dialogue; the development of priority economic sectors and business associations; co-investment grants for the modernization of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); and the improvement of labor policy and labor productivity.
In addition, the program provides for the launch of the “Strategic Advice Window,” which will provide the Ministry of Economy and Environment, business associations, and SMEs with access to international and Swiss experts. Most of the grant funds will be allocated based on the results of competitive selection processes following preliminary consultations with potential applicants.
As noted, the CORE program is part of a broader support package for Ukraine from Switzerland totaling 5 billion Swiss francs through 2036 (of which 1.5 billion francs are earmarked for 2025–2028). The parties signed a memorandum on the implementation of the initiative in Davos in January 2026.
Ukraine’s European integration could become one of the key factors in attracting investment in the restoration of infrastructure and the construction industry through access to specialized European Union development funds. At the same time, the state must already create conditions for Ukrainian building materials manufacturers and construction companies to participate in international reconstruction projects.
This was stated by Andriy Ozeychuk, director of the engineering and construction company Rauta, during the Infrastructure Forum, the company’s press service reported.
According to Ozeychuk, the main potential sources of financing for large-scale reconstruction projects in Ukraine are assistance from international partners, private investment and possible future reparations from Russia.
“Ukraine’s future European integration will become a powerful incentive for financing construction. It will open access to specialized EU development funds similar to those that transformed the infrastructure of Central and Eastern European countries after they joined the Union,” the Rauta director emphasized.
In his opinion, Ukraine’s integration into the European economic area will create additional opportunities for modernizing transport, energy, industrial and social infrastructure. At the same time, the effectiveness of using future financing will largely depend on the readiness of Ukrainian enterprises to compete with European companies.
Ozeychuk noted that, to increase the competitiveness of the domestic construction sector, it is necessary, first and foremost, to ensure access to long-term lending for investment projects and affordable financial resources for modernizing production facilities.
He also identified accelerating the implementation of European technical standards in construction and facilitating Ukrainian companies’ access to international financing programs as equally important tasks.
According to the Rauta executive, such mechanisms will enable Ukrainian building materials manufacturers and contractors to compete on equal terms with foreign participants in the implementation of reconstruction projects.
In particular, affordable financing for production modernization can contribute to upgrading equipment, increasing enterprise productivity and expanding the range of products needed to restore destroyed infrastructure.
The implementation of European standards, in turn, is an important prerequisite for Ukrainian manufacturers’ participation in international construction projects and the supply of products to the EU market.
The Infrastructure Forum, held on October 14, brought together industry representatives to discuss the development and modernization of Ukraine’s infrastructure. Issues of financing reconstruction and involving Ukrainian businesses in the implementation of major projects were discussed, in particular, during the event’s third session.
Rauta is a Ukrainian engineering and construction company specializing in the design and construction of industrial, commercial and residential facilities, as well as the supply of sandwich panels, steel frames, facade systems and prefabricated buildings. The company is the exclusive supplier to Ukraine of commercial construction products manufactured by the Finnish group Ruukki. Rauta director Andriy Ozeychuk also chairs the board of directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center association.
CONSTRUCTION, INFRASTRUCTURE, INVESTMENT, RECONSTRUCTION, UKRAINE
Direct-trade green coffee supplier LLC “!FEST COFFEE MISSION” (!FKM, !!! FEST Coffee Mission, Lviv) will launch a public offering of Series B bonds worth 200 million UAH on November 10, with an interest rate of 8.88% per annum for the first four interest periods, according to the company’s public offering prospectus.
The issue consists of 200,000 registered unsecured bonds with a par value of 1,000 UAH each. The offering on the PFTS stock exchange will run until February 10, 2027; Raiffeisen Bank and “Univer Capital” are acting as organizers without providing a guarantee.
Each of the 12 interest periods will last 91 days. The interest rate for the fifth through eighth and ninth through twelfth periods will be determined by the company’s director within the range of 5% to 15% per annum.
Interest payments will be indexed based on changes in the official hryvnia-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate compared to the rate on the placement start date. If the dollar appreciates, the payment amount will increase proportionally; if the exchange rate declines, the indexation factor will not be less than one.
The bonds’ trading period will end on November 5, 2029, and they are scheduled for redemption between November 6 and 12. Upon redemption, the company will pay the face value of the bonds, interest income for the most recent period, and additional income.
Bondholders will have the option to call the bonds for mandatory redemption after the fourth and eighth interest periods—in November 2027 and 2028, respectively.
The company plans to allocate 98% of the proceeds to the purchase of coffee beans, cocoa, and cane sugar, and another 2% to marketing activities aimed at expanding its sales markets.
As previously reported, in February 2024, the National Securities and Stock Market Commission registered !FKM’s debut Series A bond issue in the amount of 100 million UAH—100,000 bonds with a par value of 1,000 UAH each.
For the first nine months of 2026, !FKM’s net profit totaled 25.72 million UAH, which is 4.56 million UAH less than in the same period of 2025.
According to data from the company’s website, !FKM’s authorized capital is 100 million UAH. The sole owner of the company is “Holding of Emotions ‘!FEST’” LLC, and the ultimate beneficiaries with indirect controlling influence are listed as Andriy Khudo (37.5%), Dmytro Gerasimov (37.5%), and Yuriy Nazaruk (25%).
!ФКМ, bond, COFFEE, INVESTMENT, LVIV
