The price of May Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $6.09 (6.62%) to $98.07 per barrel at 7:12 a.m. Earlier during the session, Brent again exceeded $100 per barrel. On Wednesday, the contract rose in price by $4.18 (4.8%) to $91.98 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are currently up $5.29 (6.06%) to $92.54 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts rose by $3.8 (4.6%) to $87.25 per barrel.
An Iranian underwater drone attacked two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf overnight, Iranian state television IRIB reported. Earlier, a source in the Iraqi security service in Basra told CNN that a ship loaded with explosives rammed into two tankers at once.
CNN specifies that the ships Zefyros, flying the Maltese flag, and Safesea Vishnu, flying the Marshall Islands flag, were on fire. The registered owner of the Safesea Vishnu is the American company Safesea Transport Inc., while the owner of the Zefyros is based in Greece.
Iraq’s oil ports have been suspended following the fire, according to Farhan al-Fartousi, head of the Iraqi Ports Authority. He said one person had died and 38 others had been rescued.
Meanwhile, Oman has ordered ships to leave the Mina al-Fahal export terminal as a precaution, Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources. According to Kpler, about 1 million barrels of oil were exported from the terminal daily.
Earlier, a representative of the Iranian armed forces said that the world should prepare for oil at $200 per barrel, as fuel prices depend on security in the region, and Israel and the US have violated this security with their actions.
“The only thing that could lead to a long-term decline in prices is the resumption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts wrote. “If this does not happen, we can expect new highs.”
Oil prices rose yesterday, despite the fact that OPEC member countries agreed to supply a record 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves to the world market. The timing of the release of reserves will depend on the circumstances in each individual country. The total strategic oil reserves of IEA member countries exceed 1.2 billion barrels, with another 600 million barrels in state-owned industrial reserves.
“The release of IEA oil reserves may only be a temporary solution, while supply disruptions and significant production cuts in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply shortage,” said Tina Teng of Moomoo ANZ.
On Wednesday, it was also reported that commercial oil reserves in the US rose by 3.824 million barrels last week to a maximum of 443.1 million barrels since May 2025. Experts had forecast an average increase of 1.1 million barrels, according to Trading Economics.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video dedicated to global oil production in 1900–2024 and the leading producing countries.
Brent, EXPERTS CLUB, IRAN, OIL, TANKER
The escalation of the war around Iran has already gone beyond a regional conflict and has become a factor in global inflation. On March 9, Brent rose above $119 per barrel intraday, its highest level since 2022, and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The scale of the risk is also explained by logistics: in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption.
For Ukraine, the fastest channel for transmitting such a shock is the fuel market. After losing a significant part of its own refining capacity, the country relies on imports: in 2024, Ukraine imported about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, and in January-September 2025, imports of petroleum products reached 5.67 million tons. Even before the current price surge, the market remained sensitive to logistics and external conditions: The NBU noted an acceleration in the growth of prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas due to supply disruptions, and Reuters reported that in January 2026, gasoline imports grew by 70% year-on-year due to a shortage of domestic production. This makes gasoline, diesel, and autogas the most likely first group of goods to react to a protracted oil shock.
“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through rising fuel costs, and then through higher logistics, import, and food prices. For our economy, this is not only an external shock, but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics and a high share of transport costs. In 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of agri-food products by 13% to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. The largest items in the procurement structure were fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), coffee, tea, and spices ($471 million), and vegetables ($467 million). It is these categories — from bananas and citrus fruits to coffee, chocolate, and seafood — that are most sensitive to increases in freight, fuel, refrigerated logistics, and dollar-denominated commodity prices.
“Consumers will feel the price increases most noticeably where there is a large share of imports and transportation costs. First and foremost, this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood, and fruit, and a little later, goods whose prices include more expensive fertilizers, gas, and packaging,” Urakin noted.
The third risk area is fertilizers and then Ukrainian-produced food. There has already been an increase in prices not only for oil and gas, but also for sugar, fertilizers, and soybeans following the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35-40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is doubly sensitive for Ukraine: the NBU previously estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tons.
According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports has already exceeded 60%. This means that if oil and gas prices remain high for a long time, in a few months the pressure may shift to the cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat, and other food products.
Products linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve special mention. Oil is a basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters has already noted that aluminum prices have risen to a four-year high amid the current conflict. This increases the risk of price increases for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain types of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials, and some construction products. The same applies to bitumen, a direct petroleum product, whose imports to Ukraine, according to industry estimates, will remain significant in 2026.
The currency factor could be an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of the war, investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven asset. This is important for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers, and a significant portion of other imports are denominated in dollars, and the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 50% of trade in goods. Even without a physical deficit, this increases the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia.
However, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products, where Ukraine remains a major producer — primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower oil — are less dependent on immediate imports, and the wheat and corn harvest in 2025 turned out to be better than early expectations.
Therefore, in the short term, fuel, imported fruits and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals, and some construction materials are likely to see the sharpest price increases. But if the energy shock drags on, the rise in logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of Ukrainian-made goods.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/
Azerbaijan has suspended transport across the state border with Iran and closed its airspace at the border. Earlier, Azerbaijan accused Iran of launching drone strikes on the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and said it reserved the right to take appropriate measures. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reported that one drone hit the Nakhchivan airport terminal, while another fell near a school building in the village of Shakarabad. Two civilians were injured in the attack, and the airport buildings were damaged.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry demanded that Tehran provide an explanation as soon as possible, conduct an investigation, and take measures to prevent similar incidents from recurring. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the ministry to receive a note of protest.
Against the backdrop of the incident, regional media and expert commentators are discussing the possibility of invoking the mechanisms provided for in the Shusha Declaration on Alliance Relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The document stipulates that in the event of a threat or act of aggression by a third state, the parties shall hold joint consultations and provide each other with the necessary assistance in accordance with the UN Charter.
At the time of publication, there was no official announcement of the start of formal consultations on the Shusha Declaration, but Ankara and Baku maintain constant coordination on regional security issues, including at the level of the foreign ministries.
Fuel prices in Ukraine on March 4, after yesterday’s increase amid the war in Iran, rose by another 2–3 UAH per liter per day, according to monitoring of offers from individual chains conducted by the Internet portal Energorforma.
According to the monitoring, A-95 and DP are showing the following growth rates: their prices range from 67.99 UAH/liter to 70.99 UAH/liter. Premium gasoline brands cost from 70.99 UAH/liter to 74.99 UAH/liter, and diesel fuel costs from 71.99 UAH/liter to 75.99 UAH/liter.
As reported, fuel prices also jumped by 2-3 UAH/liter between March 2 and March 3.
For his part, the head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy, Danylo Getmantsev, noted on his Telegram channel on Wednesday that the jump in fuel prices does not really depend on events in the Middle East, calling on gas station chains not to profit from consumer panic.
“I want to address the representatives of the fuel market… In a country where there is a war going on and half the country is running on generators, a powerful business like yours also has a certain social function that does not allow you to use panic to make super profits. Everyone understands that the jump in prices for the fuel you sell currently has a very limited causal link to the war in Iran, at least given the time lag,“ Getmantsev wrote.
”Come to your senses. Don’t force us to turn to the Antimonopoly Committee,” he added.
Fuel prices (average) as of the morning of March 4 compared to the morning of March 3 (based on the results of Energorforma’s monitoring of websites and network applications*).
It should be noted that not all networks publish prices on their websites and in their applications.
As reported, late in the evening on March 2, Sergey Kuyun, director of the consulting company A-95, predicted that fuel prices in Ukrainian networks could rise by 2-3 UAH per liter during the week amid the war in Iran, but there is no fuel shortage on the market, and none is expected in March.
Dmytro Petrenko, director of development at the UPG group of companies, also noted the absence of a shortage in a comment to Energorforma on Wednesday. According to him, the Ukrainian fuel market is capable of adapting to the most difficult conditions, which will allow it to avoid a shortage of resources amid the war in Iran, and it is too early to make predictions about prices.
The price of gold and other precious metals rose sharply on Monday due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
By 9:57 a.m. ET, April gold futures on the Comex exchange rose about 3.3% to $5,418 per ounce.
Silver futures rose 3.3% to $96.38 per ounce, and platinum futures rose 2% to $2,422 per ounce.
As reported, on Saturday, the US and Israel launched military action against Iran. They carried out more than a thousand missile strikes on Iranian cities, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and a number of Persian Gulf countries. In particular, residential areas of the capital of Bahrain were affected, and damage to a number of hotels and the airport in Dubai was reported.
Meanwhile, the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange jumped nearly 3% on Monday to $3,231 per ton. It is noted that Iran’s neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, are major aluminum producers. According to AZ China, the Middle East accounts for about 9% of global production of this metal.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
EXPERTS CLUB, GOLD, IRAN, ISRAEL, USA
According to Fixygen, the escalation around Iran, including strikes by the US and Israel and Tehran’s subsequent response, has been a factor in increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin fell below $64,000 on the news, while Ethereum fell even further.
At the same time, markets reassessed the risks to commodities and inflation expectations. In particular, Barclays allowed for Brent to rise to $80 per barrel in the event of significant supply disruptions amid tensions between the US and Iran. Against this backdrop, some investors shifted to defensive assets: some materials noted an increase in interest in tokenized gold amid a decline in BTC and ETH.
Possible scenarios: with further escalation and increased oil risks, the crypto market may remain in risk-off mode with increased volatility for longer; with de-escalation and a return of risk appetite, a rebound is likely; if sanctions and payment restrictions are expanded, demand for stablecoins may increase, but compliance risks for infrastructure will also grow.
