During the temporary truce with the U.S., Iran exported about 70 million barrels of oil with an estimated value of $5–6 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported on July 19, citing data from analysts and tanker tracking. China is believed to have been the main end buyer of the crude.
According to the publication, after the U.S. naval blockade was lifted in mid-June, Tehran accelerated the shipment of its accumulated reserves. Starting in late June, about 20 Iranian tankers began arriving off the east coast of Malaysia. Among them, the WSJ names the vessels Diona, Hero II, Sonia 1, and Stream.
At sea, the oil was transshipped from Iranian vessels to other tankers. This ship-to-ship scheme makes it possible to conceal the cargo’s origin, alter accompanying documents, and make it difficult to track shipments subject to U.S. sanctions. After transshipment, the oil was primarily sent to small independent refineries in China.
The TankerTrackers platform previously reported that Iran had exported tens of millions of barrels of crude oil since June 15 alone. By June 24, the volume was estimated at approximately 40 million barrels, of which about 20 million barrels left the country in a single day—June 19.
The U.S. subsequently reinstated the blockade of Iran’s coastline, ports, and oil terminals. The new sanctions regime took effect on July 14 amid renewed hostilities between Washington and Tehran.
The estimate of $5–6 billion reflects the approximate market value of the exported oil. Iran’s actual revenue may have been lower due to discounts granted to Chinese buyers, transportation costs, and fees paid to intermediaries. There is no independent confirmation that the Iranian authorities received the full amount indicated.
The price of Brent crude oil rose on Tuesday afternoon following reports of new U.S. strikes on Iran.
July Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange were up $2.57 (2.67%) to $98.71 per barrel as of 2:32 p.m. local time.
Meanwhile, July WTI crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are currently down $4.26 (4.41%) to $92.34 per barrel. WTI trading was suspended the previous day due to a U.S. holiday.
Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), stated that the U.S. military carried out strikes in self-defense “to protect against the threat posed by Iranian forces.” He explained that the strikes targeted anti-aircraft missile launchers and boats that were attempting to lay mines.
In response, the Iranian military warned that a new U.S. attack would not go unanswered, according to the Fars news agency. A senior representative of the local armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, stated that any new aggression against Iran would face a “much harsher” response that would extend beyond the region.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that finalizing the wording of an agreement between Washington and Tehran could take several days. “Some talks took place in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress,” he told reporters in Jaipur during an official visit to India.
The Secretary of State reiterated that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to conclude an agreement with Iran, adding that it is important to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are still awaiting details of a potential deal,” noted Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. “At the same time, we are seeing rising tensions in the Middle East, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.”
The U.S. dollar is rising modestly against the euro, the pound sterling, and the yen on Tuesday morning amid increased demand for safe-haven assets.
The ICE DXY index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against six currencies (the euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling, and Swedish krona), is up 0.1%, while the broader WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.09%.
The U.S. military struck two boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and an anti-aircraft missile system position in Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin reported.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that negotiations with Iran in Qatar are ongoing, though finalizing the wording of the agreement between Washington and Tehran could take several days.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview with Reuters that the regulator will likely have to raise key interest rates in June, even if the U.S. and Iran manage to sign a peace agreement by then.
“Given the scale and duration of the shock we are seeing, it can no longer be ignored,” she said. “Based on the information available at this time, I believe a rate hike will be necessary in June.”
French Central Bank Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, who will step down at the end of May, told Le Figaro in an interview that the regulator will not hesitate to take measures to curb inflation and bring it back to the 2% target.
As of 9:19 a.m., the euro/dollar pair is trading at $1.1631, compared to $1.1643 at the close of the previous session; the single European currency is down about 0.1%.
The pound fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3474, compared to $1.3505 at the close of trading on Monday.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.1% against the yen to 159.06 yen, compared to 158.91 yen at the close of the previous session.
The dollar is stable against the offshore yuan at 6.7875 yuan.
According to Fixygen, Iran is seeking to include a payment mechanism for ships passing through this key energy route in future agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times reported that Tehran wants to charge fees to loaded oil tankers, and, according to the publication, the Iranian Union of Oil Exporters insists on payments in cryptocurrency.
However, an independent review shows that the parameters of such a mechanism remain unclear. Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that Iran does indeed intend to charge a fee for passage through the strait as part of a potential peace agreement; however, according to this information, the fee amount is expected to vary depending on the type of vessel, the nature of the cargo, and other conditions.
Reports of preparations for a protocol with Oman, which may provide for permits and licenses for passage through the strait, serve as an additional indication that Tehran is already attempting to institutionalize control over the passage.
About one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices fell sharply, but market participants continue to factor in the risk that even if shipping resumes, Iran will attempt to maintain economic and political control over the route through new fees and restrictions.
Global stock markets, including U.S. stock index futures, surged on Wednesday following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran in exchange for the full and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that Iran would also suspend its strikes. “This will be a bilateral ceasefire,” the U.S. president emphasized. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed its agreement to a ceasefire with the U.S., according to Abbas Arakchi, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister.
On this news, futures on U.S. stock indices are rising by more than 2%. As of 8:51 a.m., the Dow Jones futures index rose by 2.4%, S&P 500 futures rose by 2.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped by 3.3%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a composite stock index for the Asia-Pacific region, soared by more than 5%.
Amid expectations of increased Middle Eastern fuel supplies to the global market, June Brent futures had plummeted 14.3% to $93.69 per barrel by 8:52 a.m., while May WTI fell 15.3% to $95.71 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against six major global currencies, is down 1.17%. Analysts believe that cheaper oil, should a long-term peace be established in the Middle East, would exert less upward pressure on inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to continue its course of gradually lowering interest rates.
Amid expectations of a more dovish monetary policy in the U.S. than previously anticipated, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 5.5 basis points during trading to 4.245%.
The general trend in global markets on Wednesday is rising demand for risky assets and selling of so-called “safe-haven assets” amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. Gold proved to be a notable exception—the precious metal is rising in price amid a falling dollar, as the weak U.S. currency boosts gold’s investment appeal.
Gold futures are up 3.8% and trading near $4,864 per troy ounce.
The UAE insists that any political settlement of the conflict with Iran must include not only a ceasefire but also guarantees against new attacks, as well as a mechanism for reparations for strikes on civilian infrastructure and the populations of the Gulf states. This was stated by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president.
Gargash’s statement generally aligns with the broader position of the Arab Gulf states, previously articulated at the UN Human Rights Council. According to Reuters, the region’s countries accused Iran of striking energy and civilian infrastructure and supported a resolution condemning these attacks, demanding reparations, and mandating UN monitoring of the situation.
The Gulf states are also insisting that any agreement with Iran not be limited to a formal cessation of hostilities, but include a long-term reduction of its missile and drone capabilities, as well as the protection of the region’s energy and transportation infrastructure.
