In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated an increase in foreign trade, but there are still problems that limit its opportunities in international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics, and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, and Yevheniia Lytvynova, president of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, analyzed the trends of 2024 and assessed the development prospects for 2025.
Trade balance: export growth but large deficit
According to experts, the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 reached USD 113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.
Key figures:
Despite the growth in exports, the main problem remains a significant trade deficit. This indicates that the economy is dependent on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and requires finding new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.
“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine is still dependent on imports, especially in the field of technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany
Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s top 10 trading partners in terms of exports:
1. Poland – 4.7 billion dollars
2. Spain – 2.9 billion dollars
3. Germany – 2.8 billion dollars
4. China – 2.3 billion dollars
5. Turkey – 2.1 billion dollars
6. The Netherlands – 1.98 billion dollars
7. Italy – 1.93 billion dollars
8. Egypt – 1.6 billion dollars
9. India – 986 million dollars
10. Moldova – $935 million
“In 2024, Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products due to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be borne in mind that a significant portion of these exports is re-exported via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.
At the same time, China has traditionally been in the lead among Ukraine’s top 10 importers:
1. China – $14.4 billion
2. Poland – $7 billion
3. Germany – 5.4 billion dollars
4. Turkey – 4.72 billion dollars
5. USA – 2.86 billion dollars
6. Italy – 2.27 billion dollars
7. Bulgaria – 2.22 billion dollars
8. India – 1.88 billion dollars
9. Czech Republic – 1.78 billion dollars
10. France – 1.75 billion dollars
Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials
Food products account for the largest share of exports – about $25 billion. Other main products include metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion).
“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value remains abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” emphasized Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel
In 2024, the largest categories of imports were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemicals ($11.7 billion), and energy ($8.9 billion).
“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that companies are actively upgrading production and importing machinery,” explained Maksym Urakin.
New markets: opportunities and obstacles
In 2025, many Ukrainian companies are planning to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively. In particular, a free trade agreement is expected to be signed with Turkey, which will make the country an even more important trading partner.
“Turkey is already one of Ukraine’s top five partners. If the FTA is ratified, we will see an even greater increase in trade turnover,” emphasized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The United States has already begun to impose new duties on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.
“If the US imposes additional duties, it could lead to a chain reaction in global trade, and price increases will affect even Ukraine. Our companies should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” said Maksym Urakin.
What should Ukrainian businesses do?
When it comes to the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts identified the following areas:
1. It is necessary to diversify markets by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of high value-added products.
3. Increase competitiveness by adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.
4. Preparing for changes in global trade by adapting the strategy in response to possible duties and trade barriers.
“We have to learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for changes, the market will be quickly taken over by someone else,” summarized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTERS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
Greenland ‘s pro-independence supporters have won the local parliamentary elections held the day before, Danish Radio reported on Tuesday.
With 100% of the votes counted, the Demokraatit (Democrats) party became the largest party in the 31-seat parliament, winning ten seats. The party adheres to a liberal ideology and advocates gradual independence. The second place was taken by the Nalerak (“Aspiration”) party, which also advocates the island’s independence. It will be represented in the local parliament by eight deputies.
The left-wing socialist party Inuit Ataqvatigiit (Eskimo Union), which was in power in Greenland before the election, was defeated, receiving only seven seats. Their partners from the Social Democratic Party “Siumut” (“Forward”) will be represented in the new parliament of Greenland by four deputies.
Two more seats were won by representatives of the liberal conservatives from the Atassut (“Solidarity”) party.
Voter turnout in the elections was 70.9%.
Meanwhile, although the Democrats received the largest representation in the new parliament of Greenland, they failed to gain a parliamentary majority of 16 seats, so they will have to start coalition negotiations.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
Polling stations have opened in Greenland, where elections to the local parliament are taking place on Tuesday, the Associated Press reports. Approximately 41 thousand residents of the island are eligible to vote.
The voters will have to choose from several parties, the favorites of which are two – the left-wing socialist Inuit Atakatigiiit (Eskimo Union), which is currently in power, and the social democratic Siumut (Forward).
In addition to them, representatives of the liberal Demokraatit (“Democrats”) party, the centrist Nalerak (“Aspiration”) party, which supports the island’s independence, and the liberal conservatives from the Atassut (“Solidarity”) party are competing for seats in the local parliament.
According to the BBC, a coalition of the Inuit Atakatigiit and Siumut parties currently controls the majority in parliament – 21 out of 31 seats. Both are in favor of independence, but the largest Inuit Atakatigiiit is in no hurry to hold a referendum, while Siumut promises to hold one in the next four years.
The announcement of the initial election results will begin immediately after the polls close, but the situation may be complicated by weather conditions, as a large part of the island is located in the Arctic zone. The time of the announcement of the final election results will also depend on this.
Observers note that the results of these elections should also reveal which way the island’s residents prefer: to remain a self-governing territory of Denmark, to choose a direction towards independence, or to listen to the statements of US President Donald Trump, who suggested that the Danish authorities buy Greenland.
The results of recent pre-election polls conducted by the Verian research company and regional media show that 85% of voters oppose becoming part of the United States, 6% are in favor, and 9% are undecided.
In addition, 60% of respondents are in favor of Greenland’s possible accession to the EU; 40% share the opposite opinion. The same results were shown in the 2021 survey. However, compared to 2021, the percentage of those who support parties that advocate independence from Denmark has now decreased from 80% to 69%.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
The eurozone’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.1% compared to the previous three months, according to a report by the European Union’s statistical office, which presented revised data. Previously, it was reported that GDP remained unchanged. Experts on average expected the previous estimate to be confirmed, according to Trading Economics.
In annual terms, the eurozone economy grew by 0.9%, the fastest pace since the beginning of 2023. The dynamics of this indicator coincided with the previous estimate and the consensus forecast of analysts.
In the third quarter, eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.9% in annual terms.
In October-December, Germany’s economy declined by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, France’s by 0.1%, Spain’s by 0.8%, and Italy’s GDP remained unchanged.
In annual terms, Germany’s GDP also decreased by 0.2%, France’s by 0.7%, Spain’s by 3.5%, and Italy’s by 0.5%.
In the fourth quarter, the EU economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 1.1% in annual terms.
This is the second estimate of GDP dynamics for the fourth quarter out of three. The third estimate will be published on March 7. According to preliminary data, in 2024, the euro area’s GDP grew by 0.7%, and the EU’s by 0.9%.
Experts Club Analytical Center and Maksim Urakin released earlier video analysis about the economy of Ukraine and the world – https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=b_tVU8Zeg_-xZVEo.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/vvp-yevrozony-v-iv-kvartali-zris-na-01/
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global changes in trade flows continue to affect economic development. Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, noted that Ukraine is showing signs of gradual economic recovery despite the difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
– Agriculture: the recovery in exports and the expansion of sales markets provided an increase of 6.5%.
– IT sector: IT services remained a key source of foreign exchange earnings, showing an increase of 10.4%.
– Construction: thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Amid the ongoing war and global turmoil, Ukraine’s economy is showing both signs of recovery and certain problems that need attention,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, which is higher than in 2024 (12%). This is due to rising food and energy prices. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating between UAH 39-40 per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export earnings.
“The decline in inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but an important task remains to increase the level of household incomes to compensate for the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
In January 2025, Ukraine’s exports increased to $3.1 billion, driven by shipments of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy and equipment. The negative balance of foreign trade remains.
“Export dynamics show that Ukrainian companies are actively looking for new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin said.
In January 2025, the state budget revenues of Ukraine amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more than in January 2024, respectively. The main role in this was played by revenues from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international assistance. Ukraine’s international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. However, it is important to lay the foundation for independent economic growth now,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown are the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in the financial markets and a decline in global demand.
THE UNITED STATES: The economy is showing moderate growth at 2.3%, driven by robust domestic demand and investment in innovative industries.
European Union: The growth rate remains low at 1.1% due to the ongoing energy crisis and problems in the industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, due to the real estate crisis and a decline in exports.
India: Stable growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the fastest growing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are related to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies are better able to cope with these challenges,” – Mr. Urakin said.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to be under pressure, with an average gas price of €67 per MWh, due to persistent supply shortages.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export capacity of developing countries.
Central banks in major economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps to reduce inflation.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks associated with inflation, foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid remain. The global economy is slowing down, which creates additional challenges for emerging market countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential and strengthening its domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome the current difficulties and create the basis for long-term growth,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Ukraine’s economy demonstrates steady but uneven growth amid ongoing challenges caused by the war, inflationary risks, and global instability.
GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January-October 2024. The growth rate slowed slightly compared to the first months of the year due to the impact of external economic factors and a decline in exports.
“The Ukrainian economy demonstrates strength and adaptability even in the face of large-scale challenges. However, for sustainable development, it is necessary to continue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and supporting exports,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be one of the key issues. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, annual inflation was 9.1% in October, accelerating from 8.5% in September. The main factors behind the price increase were higher energy prices, hryvnia depreciation and high logistics costs.
“Inflation puts pressure on the consumer spending power of the population. It is important that the government pays more attention to tools to curb price growth, including support for national production and the development of the domestic market,” Urakin emphasized.
Foreign trade
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 6.4% over ten months compared to the same period last year and amounted to $22.1 billion. Exports decreased by 4.8%, especially for agricultural products and metallurgy, while imports increased by 3.2%, mainly due to purchases of fuel and industrial equipment.
“Ukraine needs to develop export channels more actively, diversify its sales markets and support its producers. This will help to balance the trade deficit and strengthen its position in international markets,” Urakin added.
State budget and reserves
State budget revenues in January-October amounted to UAH 1.91 trillion, which is 12% higher than in the same period of 2023. However, a significant portion of the revenues was provided by international financial assistance. In October, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 6.7% to $37.2 billion, due to the repayment of external liabilities and a decrease in foreign exchange earnings.
Global economic situation
The global economy continues to face uncertainty caused by high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the weakening of key economies.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is in line with forecasts but below the average of recent decades.
USA – the economy grew by 2.5%, supported by high domestic consumption and investment.
Eurozone – growth was 0.8%, due to the recession in Germany and a slowdown in industrial production.
China – GDP grew by 4.6%, but the economy is facing problems in the real estate sector and a decline in exports.
India – remains one of the leaders of growth, showing a 6.9% economic recovery.
“The global economy is balancing between recovery and new challenges. In the coming months, geopolitical instability, energy price fluctuations and financial constraints due to high interest rates will remain the main risks,” – Mr. Urakin noted.
Global trends:
1. Financial markets remain volatile as central banks in leading countries are in no hurry to cut rates.
2. The energy crisis in Europe continues to put pressure on the economy.
3. Rising commodity prices, including oil and gas, are affecting inflationary processes around the world.
Ukraine’s economy has shown moderate growth in the first ten months of 2024, but faces challenges in the form of inflation, trade imbalance, and pressure on the state budget. The global economy remains exposed to risks associated with the high cost of borrowed funds and the slowdown in key countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue reforms aimed at supporting business and attracting investment. This is the only way to ensure long-term economic stability and create a solid foundation for future growth,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
