Voting in the presidential election began in Romania at 7:00 a.m. on Sunday. The second round features George Simion, representative of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, and Nicușor Dăncilă, the incumbent mayor of the capital Bucharest, who received the most votes in the first round on May 4.
“We voted so that only Romanians decide our future, for Romanians and for Romania,“ Simion told reporters outside a polling station.
“We decide what kind of country we want to be: a country of hope, dialogue, and development,” Dănălescu wrote on Facebook.
According to Reuters, despite the fact that 38-year-old Simion won 41% of the vote in the first round and 55-year-old Dan only 21%, opinion polls show that they have almost equal chances of winning, or show a slight advantage for Simion. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis dedicated to the most important elections in the world in 2025. For more details, see here —
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of February 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the UN. Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, Maksim Urakhin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed signs of recovery despite the ongoing war and unstable geopolitical situation. According to updated data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3.3% in 2024, while nominal GDP amounted to approximately UAH 8.3 trillion. The deflator index was 11.6%.
“GDP growth demonstrates the resilience of the Ukrainian economy. Sectors focused on exports, domestic consumption, and infrastructure restoration have become the drivers of growth,” comments Maxim Urakin.
As of January 2025, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9%. Consumer prices rose by 1.2% in January compared to December, reflecting seasonal increases and currency stability.
According to the State Statistics Service, at the end of 2024, exports of goods amounted to $43.8 billion (+13.4%), imports to $67.4 billion (+5.7%), and the negative foreign trade balance to $23.6 billion.
“Despite high imports, primarily of energy and equipment, export activity is growing. Ukraine is strengthening its position in the agricultural and metallurgical markets,” says Maksim Urakyn.
As of February 1, 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to $146.7 billion, including $100.1 billion in external debt. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, international reserves reached $45.3 billion, increasing by $400 million in January thanks to inflows from the EU and the IMF.
“The record level of reserves strengthens the stability of the hryvnia and allows the NBU to control currency fluctuations,” the economist emphasizes.
Global economy
According to the IMF’s January update, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, with a forecast of 3.2% for 2025. Developing countries remain the main drivers, despite global instability.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy grew by 2.5% in 2024. In January 2025, inflation stood at 3.1% year-on-year, with the Fed keeping its rate at 5.25-5.5%.
According to revised Eurostat data, the eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4% in 2024, while inflation stood at 2.8% in January 2025. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, contracted by 0.1%, while Spain and Portugal made positive contributions to overall growth.
“Geopolitics, high borrowing costs, and weak demand in the G7 countries continue to hold back the recovery. Strong consumer demand is supporting the US economy. However, expensive credit is holding back investment activity, especially in real estate. The Chinese economy needs new stimulus, including tax reforms and support for small businesses, to offset the decline in investment in the construction sector,” Urakin explains.
The Indian economy continues to grow steadily: 8% in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Indian Ministry of Finance. The country is strengthening its position in global supply chains and increasing domestic production.
According to official statistics, China’s GDP grew by 5% in 2024. However, growth in the real estate sector remains weak and domestic demand is limited, which is holding back expansion potential.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic picture at the beginning of 2025 reflects a difficult but stable situation both in Ukraine and globally. Domestic GDP growth, slowing inflation, and strengthening reserves are positive signals for Ukraine. The global economy, in turn, is showing cautious growth amid continuing challenges.
“The key priorities for Ukraine remain ensuring macroeconomic stability, growing high value-added exports, accelerating digital transformation, and implementing structural reforms. This will enable the country to strengthen its position in the international economy as early as 2025,” concludes Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1072123.html
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, GEOPOLITICS, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
Iran has become the country with the highest level of negative attitudes among Ukrainians, according to a sociological survey conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center in April 2025.
According to the results, 60.9% of respondents rated Iran negatively (32.9% — mostly negative, 28.0% — completely negative). At the same time, only 5.0% of respondents expressed a positive attitude (2.8% — mostly positive, 2.2% — completely positive). Another 27.9% indicated a neutral attitude, and 6.2% abstained from answering.
“The high level of negativity towards Iran is explained by its foreign policy and alliance with Russia. These results reflect the geopolitical reality,” said Oleksandr Pozniy, co-founder of Active Group.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with the information and analytical center Experts Club, the vast majority of Ukrainians do not have a formed opinion about Guyana — 71.8% chose the neutral option.
A positive attitude was expressed by 8.8% of respondents: 6.2% said “mostly positive” and 2.6% said “completely positive.” In contrast, only 3.9% expressed a negative attitude (of which 3.2% said “mostly negative” and 0.7% said “completely negative”). At the same time, 15.5% of respondents were unable to answer this question at all.
“Such a high percentage of neutrality and ‘difficult to say’ responses indicates that Ukrainians are very poorly informed about Guyana. This country is almost absent from the Ukrainian information field and is therefore perceived without strong emotions,” comments Oleksandr Pozniy, co-founder of Active Group.
Ukrainians’ attitude toward Guyana remains largely neutral due to the country’s lack of media presence. This is a typical example of a “blank spot” on the geopolitical map in the mass consciousness.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
The results of a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club show that Ukrainians’ attitude toward Venezuela is generally more negative than positive.
19.6% of respondents rated their attitude as negative, of which 15.1% said it was “mostly negative” and 4.5% said it was “completely negative.” At the same time, 17.6% of respondents expressed a positive attitude, including 13.1% who said it was “mostly positive” and 4.5% who said it was “completely positive.” The largest share, 55.7%, took a neutral position, while another 7.1% abstained from answering.
“Negative associations with Venezuela are mainly related to the economic and political crisis in the country. It often appears in the news as an example of a country where the socio-economic situation has deteriorated due to populist decisions. This creates a wary attitude among Ukrainians,” says Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Ukrainians perceive Venezuela mainly through the prism of problems that have become known from international news. Although a significant proportion of respondents take a neutral position, the negative image prevails over the positive.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to the results of a joint survey conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center, most Ukrainians have a neutral or positive attitude towards Thailand.
Thus, 54.8% of respondents rated their attitude as neutral, while 36.4% responded positively (of which 28.4% said “mostly positive” and 8.0% said “completely positive”). Only 3.2% of respondents expressed a negative attitude, while 5.6% were unable to answer the question.
“Thailand has long been one of the favorite destinations for Ukrainian tourists, especially in winter. Tourism shapes a positive image of the country in the Ukrainian public consciousness,” comments Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Overall, more than a third of Ukrainians have a favorable attitude toward Thailand, and more than half are neutral. These data indicate a positive tourist image of the country among Ukrainians, which creates potential for further development of cultural and economic ties.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
