The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 0.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons, and corn by 1.0 million tons to 21.0 million tons.
According to the U.S. agency’s December report, the improvement in the forecast for wheat exports was made by reducing the estimate of year-end carryover balances by the same 0.5 million tons, to 2.58 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA raised the forecast for its harvest also by 1 million tons – up to 30.5 million tons.
In addition, the U.S. analysts improved the estimate of transitional corn residues by 0.39 million tons both at the beginning of this MY (up to 2.8 million tons) and at its end (up to 6.82 million tons).
Overall, the updated world wheat crop forecast for 2023/24 is improved by 1.03 million tons to 783.01 million due to positive revisions to estimates for Australia and Canada, offsetting a worsening of the forecast for Brazil.
The estimate for global wheat consumption is raised by 1.82 million tons to 794.66 million, and global exports by 2.18 million tons to 207.19 million tons: in addition to Ukraine, the estimates for the United States, Australia and Canada are improved.
As for corn, the forecast for its harvest in December was raised by 1.28 million tons to 1 billion 222.07 million tons, and for exports by 1.84 million tons to 201.46 million tons.
forecast for wheat exports, forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its September review lowered its estimate of India’s rice exports next year to 17.5 million tons from 19 million tons in the August forecast. This year, exports are expected to reach 20 million tons.
World rice prices have soared to 15-year highs amid export restrictions imposed by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, the USDA said. In July, the country imposed a ban on the export of most rice varieties, followed by an export duty on steamed rice and a minimum export price for basmati. Importers switched to other major suppliers, such as Thailand and Vietnam, and as a result, their export prices rose to the highest levels since 2008.
At the same time, even before India’s restrictions, rice prices were rising amid strong demand from importers and declining production in a number of countries.
In 2008, India, at that time the second largest exporter of rice, also imposed export restrictions, which led to a sharp rise in prices. After the restrictions were lifted in 2011, the country increased supplies to the global market and became the largest exporter the following year, and has maintained this position since then. In 2022, India exported slightly more than the next four suppliers combined, accounting for about 40% of global supplies. Since 2020, the country has been supplying white rice at the lowest prices, especially to sub-Saharan Africa. The sharp rise in prices is expected to have a significant impact on these import-dependent countries.
Despite the significant increase in export prices, they have not reached the record levels of 2008, as export restrictions are less severe this time. In addition, Vietnam, which stopped exports in 2008, is now resuming shipments.
According to the USDA forecast, global rice exports this year will amount to 53.11 million tons (56.12 million tons last year). Next year, supplies may decline to 52.1 million tons (the forecast was lowered from 53 million tons, according to the August estimate).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the recently started 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 21 million tons to 22.5 million tons, and for corn from 27.5 million tons to 28 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second-highest yields on record.
In its September forecast, the agency also raised its wheat export estimates from 11 million tons to 11.5 million tons, while corn exports remained unchanged at 19.5 million tons.
The USDA raised its domestic consumption forecast for wheat from 8.1 million tons to 8.8 million tons, while maintaining its forecast for corn at 5.5 million tons, and at the same time raising its carryover forecast to 4.43 million tons from 3.89 million tons.
In general, the global wheat harvest forecast for 2023/24 MY has been lowered by 56 mln tonnes to 787.3 mln tonnes, which is 3.25 mln tonnes less than last year, due to the decrease in production in Australia, Canada, Argentina and the EU, which will not be compensated by the increased production of Ukraine.
The forecast of world wheat trade was also downgraded by 2.1 million tons to 207.3 million tons compared to 219.9 million tons last year due to the decline in production in the above countries, which is only partially offset by the growth of activity in Russia and Kazakhstan.
The USDA noted that such annual decline in the world wheat supplies is the first since 2018/19 MY. The agency also expects the reduction of the global carry-over stocks by 7 mln tonnes to 258.6 mln tonnes, which will be the lowest level since 2015/16 MY.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August forecast improved the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tons to 21 million tons, corn – from 25 million tons to 27.5 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second highest yield in history.
At the same time, the document notes, due to the discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast was kept unchanged at 10.5 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.
As a result, USDA for wheat raised the forecast for domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons, and transitional residues at the end of MY – from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons, while for corn, the entire crop growth forecast is balanced by an increase in expected transitional residues – from 1.89 million tons to 3.89 million tons.
Overall, the U.S. agency increased its forecast for this year’s feed grain harvest in Ukraine from 31.47 million tons to 33.97 million tons, estimating their exports at 21.37 million tons and raising the forecast for transitional residues from 2.27 million tons to 4.77 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop, the same as a month ago, at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier, and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, while reducing transitional residues from 5.27 million tons to 1.65 million tons.
The USDA sees the feed grain harvest falling to 33.93 million tons from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.80 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.69 million tons to 2.15 million tons.
Including the corn crop, last MY’s harvest fell to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports rose to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, also due to a reduction in transitional residue from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
USDA’s new forecast for the global wheat crop in MY 2023/24 is projected to reach 793.4 million tons, down 3.3 million tons from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are forecast at 209.4 million tons, 2.23 million tons less than previously expected. Analysts projected final world wheat stocks at the end of MY at 265.6 million tons, 0.92 million tons less than the previous forecast.
For corn, the estimate for this year’s world harvest was lowered by almost 11 million tons to 1 billion 213.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 2.07 million tons to 196.19 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat production by 0.13 million tons to 47.2 million tons. Exports are expected at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Corn harvest is down 5.71 million tons to 398.82 million tons and exports are down 1.27 million tons to 58.65 million tons.
In the EU, USDA worsened its wheat crop estimate by 3 million tons to 135 million tons, keeping exports at 38.5 million tons.
For coarse grains, the EU crop forecast has been worsened by 6.85 million tons to 136.45 million tons and exports by 2.21 million tons to 10.59 million tons, with the estimated corn crop now down 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons and exports down 0.9 million tons to 4.1 million tons.
For Russia, the forecast for wheat exports at the same crop estimate of 85 million tons is increased by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and coarse grains is kept at 8.91 million tons with the crop estimate lowered by 2.85 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Including corn, exports are still expected at the level of 4.2 million tons with a decrease in the harvest by 1.7 million tons – to 14.6 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July outlook released improved its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop in the early 2023/24 marketing year (MY) to 25 million tons from 24.5 million tons in the June release, and its export forecast to 19.5 million tons from 19 million tons.
Meanwhile, the overall forecast for feed grain exports in this MY is lowered to 21.33 million tons from 21.53 million tons due to a reduction in the crop estimate to 31.47 million tons from 31.67 million tons.
For wheat, the forecast is kept the same: harvest – 17.5 million tons, exports – 10.5 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, with transitional residues reduced from 5.27 million tons to 1.63 million tons.
According to the USDA, the feed grain harvest fell to 33.93 million tons last year from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.75 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.67 million tons to 2.16 million tons.
Including corn harvest in the past MY decreased to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, including due to a reduction in transitional residues from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
In its February report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 2 million tons, compared to January data, to 22.5 million tons from 20.5 million tons, and wheat exports by 0.5 million tons, to 13.5 million tons from 13 million tons.
According to a report on the U.S. Department of Agriculture website Thursday, the forecast for corn production in the current MY is maintained at 27 million tons and wheat at 21 million tons.
Also in the February forecast, the estimate of transitional corn balances in Ukraine at the end of 2022/2023 MY was reduced by 2 million tons to 3.39 million tons from 5.39 million tons, and by 0.5 million tons for wheat to 4.21 million tons from 4.71 million tons.
At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY remained at 5 million tons, and wheat – 4 million tons.
In general, the forecast of feed grain exports in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY in the February forecast was increased by 2 million tons – to 24.93 million tons from 22.93 million tons in January, and the forecast of its production was kept at 34.16 million tons.
As reported, Ukrainian agrarians by February 3, 2023 harvested 78.93 million tons of major crops from 18.46 million hectares, including 53.2 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. Wheat in 2022 harvested 20.2 million tons from 5 million hectares, and corn – 25.9 million tons from 3.9 million hectares.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY to February 3, exported 27.46 million tons of crops, which is 29.8% less than the same period of the previous MY. External markets supplied 15.68 million tons of corn (-2.1% compared to the same period last year), 9.84 million tons of wheat (1.75 times less), 1.83 million tons of barley (3 times less), 12.8 thousand tons of rye (12.3 times less) and 85 tons of flour (+33%).
