The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s grain production by 13% and exports by 26% due to the country’s depleted stocks.
According to the February forecast, the country’s ending grain stocks in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) are estimated at 1.8 million tons, up 19% from last year, but significantly lower than before the large-scale invasion in February 2022.
The EU will remain an important destination for Ukraine given its liberalized trade policy and geographical proximity. At the same time, Ukrainian exporters continue to regain their traditional markets, made possible by the efficient operation of the Black Sea ports, the report says.
According to the USDA, the wheat harvest in 2024/25 MY in Ukraine will amount to 22.9 mln tons, which is the same as last year, but its exports will decrease by 19% to 15 mln tons. The barley harvest will be 3% lower than in the season-2023/24, and is estimated at 5.9 million tons, while exports will amount to 2.6 million tons. The forecast for rye production was lowered by 18% to 190 thousand tons.
Rye has become a niche crop for Ukrainian farmers, so its production and exports can vary significantly from year to year, the USDA said.
The USDA forecasts the largest reduction in corn, the production of which will decrease by 24% compared to 2023/24 MY – to 24.6 mln tons, while exports will fall by 33% – to 19.6 mln tons. The ending stocks of the grain are forecasted at 722 thsd tonnes, up slightly from the previous year, but significantly lower than the 2.8 mln tonnes that were in reserve at the end of the 2022/23 season.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by another 1 million tons to 16.0 million tons.
As stated in the October USDA report on Friday evening, such revision was made due to an increase in the crop estimate from 22.3 million tons to 22.9 million tons, as well as a decrease in the estimate of domestic consumption from 7.0 million tons to 6.7 million tons and transitional residues from 1.09 million tons to 0.99 million tons.
The U.S. agency recalls that last MY the wheat harvest in Ukraine amounted to 23.0 million tons, exports – 18.58 million tons, while corn – 32.5 million tons and 29.6 million tons, respectively.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in the 2024/2025 season at 794.08 (-2.8 million tons to September forecast) and world exports at 215.82 million tons (-0.69 million tons).
The estimate of both world corn production to 1 billion 217.19 (-1.38 million tons to the September forecast) and world exports to 190.50 million tons (-0.87 million tons) has also been downgraded.
In the August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast of global oilseeds production in 2024/2025 MY by 4.5 mln tonnes to 690.5 mln tonnes due to the growth of soybean and rapeseed production, which partially offset the decline in sunflower, cotton, peanuts and palm kernel production.
Analysts increased global rapeseed production by 0.9 million tons to 88.8 million, mainly due to the expansion of rapeseed production in Russia. World sunflower production was reduced by 2.3 million tons to 52.5 million due to unfavorable weather conditions that affected yields in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Serbia and Moldova.
The USDA’s global soybean production in 2024/2025 is increased by 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million tons due to higher production in the US, Ukraine, Russia, India and Benin. Exports are increased by 1.0 million tons to 181.2 million due to higher exports to the US, Ukraine, Russia and Benin, partially offsetting lower shipments from Argentina. Soybean imports were increased for Egypt, the EU, Iran and Turkey. Global ending stocks of soybeans in 2024/25 MY increased by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million, mainly due to higher stocks in China, the United States and Argentina, partially offset by lower stocks in Brazil.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly lowered its forecast for the corn crop in Ukraine. The decrease compared to July is 1.8%, namely to 27.2 million tons (-0.5 million tons), exports – 24 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks increased to 0.73 million tons (+0.5 million tons).
World corn production is reduced to 1.219 billion tons (-0.005 billion tons), exports – to 191.47 million tons (-0.34 million tons), carry-over stocks – 310.17 million tons (-1.47 million tons).
Analysts have lowered their estimates of global corn production due to extreme heat and drought in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus regions of Russia in July, which affected crop yields. Corn production in Ukraine was reduced, as the expansion of corn production areas was offset by lower yield expectations.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August report raised its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by 10.8% to 21.6 million tons, and exports by 7.7% to 14 million tons
Analysts also revised upward the domestic consumption of wheat in Ukraine by 10.5% to 7.4 million tons. Ukraine will enter the season with starting residues of 770,000 tons, while a month earlier they amounted to 1.08 million tons. USDA expects that by the end of 2024/2025 MY the country will have 1.05 mln tons of wheat, which is 9.4% higher than the July forecast.
At the same time, USDA forecasts world wheat production for the 2024/2025 season at 798.28 (+ 2.18 million tons from last forecast) and world exports at 214.86 million tons (+ 1.98 million tons). The experts lowered the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world to 256.62 million tons (- 1.97 million tons).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast of wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 marketing year by another 1.5 mln tonnes to 16.5 mln tonnes.
According to the April report of the U.S. agency, at the same time, the estimate of carry-over stocks at the end of the MY was reduced from 3.28 mln tonnes to 1.58 mln tonnes, domestic consumption – from 7.7 mln tonnes to 7.3 mln tonnes, and carry-over stocks at the beginning of the MY – from 3.5 mln tonnes to 2.9 mln tonnes.
As for Ukrainian corn, the forecast of its exports after increasing by 1.5 mln tons in March, in April was kept at the same level – 24.5 mln tons.
At the same time, the overall forecast for Ukrainian feed grains was increased by 0.1 mln tonnes to 26.97 mln tonnes due to the same reduction of carry-over stocks at the end of this MY to 4.08 mln tonnes.
In general, the updated global wheat harvest forecast for 2023/24 MY has been improved by 0.66 mln tonnes to 787.36 mln tonnes, while the forecast for global wheat exports has been increased by 1.34 mln tonnes to 213.47 mln tonnes. On the contrary, experts revised the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world downward by 0.56 million tons to 258.27 million tons.
As for corn, the forecast for its global production in April was reduced by 2.38 million tons to 1 billion 227.86 million tons, while exports were reduced by only 0.47 million tons to 200.59 million tons. The USDA also lowered its estimate of carryover stocks by 2.35 million tons to 318.28 million tons.
As reported earlier, Ukraine attributed the improvement in grain export estimates for this marketing year to the increase in the volume of grain transportation through the new sea corridor under the control of the Ukrainian Navy.
