In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly lowered its forecast for the corn crop in Ukraine. The decrease compared to July is 1.8%, namely to 27.2 million tons (-0.5 million tons), exports – 24 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks increased to 0.73 million tons (+0.5 million tons).
World corn production is reduced to 1.219 billion tons (-0.005 billion tons), exports – to 191.47 million tons (-0.34 million tons), carry-over stocks – 310.17 million tons (-1.47 million tons).
Analysts have lowered their estimates of global corn production due to extreme heat and drought in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus regions of Russia in July, which affected crop yields. Corn production in Ukraine was reduced, as the expansion of corn production areas was offset by lower yield expectations.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August report raised its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by 10.8% to 21.6 million tons, and exports by 7.7% to 14 million tons
Analysts also revised upward the domestic consumption of wheat in Ukraine by 10.5% to 7.4 million tons. Ukraine will enter the season with starting residues of 770,000 tons, while a month earlier they amounted to 1.08 million tons. USDA expects that by the end of 2024/2025 MY the country will have 1.05 mln tons of wheat, which is 9.4% higher than the July forecast.
At the same time, USDA forecasts world wheat production for the 2024/2025 season at 798.28 (+ 2.18 million tons from last forecast) and world exports at 214.86 million tons (+ 1.98 million tons). The experts lowered the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world to 256.62 million tons (- 1.97 million tons).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast of wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 marketing year by another 1.5 mln tonnes to 16.5 mln tonnes.
According to the April report of the U.S. agency, at the same time, the estimate of carry-over stocks at the end of the MY was reduced from 3.28 mln tonnes to 1.58 mln tonnes, domestic consumption – from 7.7 mln tonnes to 7.3 mln tonnes, and carry-over stocks at the beginning of the MY – from 3.5 mln tonnes to 2.9 mln tonnes.
As for Ukrainian corn, the forecast of its exports after increasing by 1.5 mln tons in March, in April was kept at the same level – 24.5 mln tons.
At the same time, the overall forecast for Ukrainian feed grains was increased by 0.1 mln tonnes to 26.97 mln tonnes due to the same reduction of carry-over stocks at the end of this MY to 4.08 mln tonnes.
In general, the updated global wheat harvest forecast for 2023/24 MY has been improved by 0.66 mln tonnes to 787.36 mln tonnes, while the forecast for global wheat exports has been increased by 1.34 mln tonnes to 213.47 mln tonnes. On the contrary, experts revised the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world downward by 0.56 million tons to 258.27 million tons.
As for corn, the forecast for its global production in April was reduced by 2.38 million tons to 1 billion 227.86 million tons, while exports were reduced by only 0.47 million tons to 200.59 million tons. The USDA also lowered its estimate of carryover stocks by 2.35 million tons to 318.28 million tons.
As reported earlier, Ukraine attributed the improvement in grain export estimates for this marketing year to the increase in the volume of grain transportation through the new sea corridor under the control of the Ukrainian Navy.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for Ukrainian wheat production in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY, September 2023 – August 2024) by 0.9 million tons to 23.4 million tons and for exports by 1.5 million tons to 14 million tons.
According to the USDA’s January report, Ukraine’s ending stocks will also increase by 1.8 million tons to 4.38 million tons.
For corn, the USDA left the harvest, exports and ending stocks in Ukraine unchanged: 30.5 million tons, 21 million tons and 6.82 million tons respectively.
In general, the updated global wheat crop forecast for the 2023/24 grain year was improved by 1.9 million tons to 784.91 million tons, due to the positive revision of estimates for Ukraine and Russia, while the forecast for China was lowered. The forecast for global wheat exports was also raised by 2.35 million tons to 209.54 million tons. The experts also revised the forecast for global wheat ending stocks upwards by 1.83 million tons to 260.03 million tons.
For corn, the forecast for global production in January was raised by 0.0137 million tons to 1.235 million tons, while exports were lowered by 0.57 million tons to 200.89 million tons. Ending stocks will rise by 10 million tons to 325 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 0.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons, and corn by 1.0 million tons to 21.0 million tons.
According to the U.S. agency’s December report, the improvement in the forecast for wheat exports was made by reducing the estimate of year-end carryover balances by the same 0.5 million tons, to 2.58 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA raised the forecast for its harvest also by 1 million tons – up to 30.5 million tons.
In addition, the U.S. analysts improved the estimate of transitional corn residues by 0.39 million tons both at the beginning of this MY (up to 2.8 million tons) and at its end (up to 6.82 million tons).
Overall, the updated world wheat crop forecast for 2023/24 is improved by 1.03 million tons to 783.01 million due to positive revisions to estimates for Australia and Canada, offsetting a worsening of the forecast for Brazil.
The estimate for global wheat consumption is raised by 1.82 million tons to 794.66 million, and global exports by 2.18 million tons to 207.19 million tons: in addition to Ukraine, the estimates for the United States, Australia and Canada are improved.
As for corn, the forecast for its harvest in December was raised by 1.28 million tons to 1 billion 222.07 million tons, and for exports by 1.84 million tons to 201.46 million tons.
forecast for wheat exports, forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its September review lowered its estimate of India’s rice exports next year to 17.5 million tons from 19 million tons in the August forecast. This year, exports are expected to reach 20 million tons.
World rice prices have soared to 15-year highs amid export restrictions imposed by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, the USDA said. In July, the country imposed a ban on the export of most rice varieties, followed by an export duty on steamed rice and a minimum export price for basmati. Importers switched to other major suppliers, such as Thailand and Vietnam, and as a result, their export prices rose to the highest levels since 2008.
At the same time, even before India’s restrictions, rice prices were rising amid strong demand from importers and declining production in a number of countries.
In 2008, India, at that time the second largest exporter of rice, also imposed export restrictions, which led to a sharp rise in prices. After the restrictions were lifted in 2011, the country increased supplies to the global market and became the largest exporter the following year, and has maintained this position since then. In 2022, India exported slightly more than the next four suppliers combined, accounting for about 40% of global supplies. Since 2020, the country has been supplying white rice at the lowest prices, especially to sub-Saharan Africa. The sharp rise in prices is expected to have a significant impact on these import-dependent countries.
Despite the significant increase in export prices, they have not reached the record levels of 2008, as export restrictions are less severe this time. In addition, Vietnam, which stopped exports in 2008, is now resuming shipments.
According to the USDA forecast, global rice exports this year will amount to 53.11 million tons (56.12 million tons last year). Next year, supplies may decline to 52.1 million tons (the forecast was lowered from 53 million tons, according to the August estimate).
