In its June report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) to 23.5 million tons from 23 million tons, as projected a month earlier, and also increased its export estimate from 13 million tons to 14 million tons.
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA analysts attributed the forecast revision for Ukraine to favorable weather conditions in the spring.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the upward revision of the forecast for Ukraine was one of the factors behind the increase in the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year from 819.1 million tons to 820.1 million tons. Global wheat trade was also revised upward—from 211.7 million tons to 212.0 million tons.
In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s barley harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year by 300,000 tons—from 5.5 million tons to 5.8 million tons, as expected a month earlier.
The export estimate was also increased by the same 300,000 tons, which, together with other grains excluding wheat and corn, currently stands at 2.49 million tons.
As for the corn harvest forecast, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture left it unchanged at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. Corn exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 23 million tons, the same as a month earlier.
As reported, in its May report, the USDA published its first forecast for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year, estimating the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, exports at 13 million tons, and corn production and exports at 30 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively.
As reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture forecasts the 2026 grain harvest at around 60.4 million tons, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of key crops could amount to about 22.4 million tons of wheat, about 4.7 million tons of barley, and approximately 31.6 million tons of corn.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, the corn harvest by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
In its May report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its first forecast for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2026 marketing year (MY) – 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current MY.
According to USDA estimates, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the next MY will decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, but ending stocks for the year will increase by only 0.9 million tons—to 4.53 million tons—while this year they are expected to rise by 2.9 million tons.
As for the corn harvest, USDA analysts forecast it at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. The increase in exports is also expected to result from a decrease in ending stocks by 0.19 million tons, while this marketing year they are projected to increase by 1.91 million tons.
Taking other crops into account, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s forage grain harvest to decrease to 36.08 million tons from 37.22 million tons last year, but an increase in its exports next marketing year to 25.19 million tons from 24.30 million tons this marketing year, also due to carryover stocks accumulated this year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy forecasts a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tons in 2026, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of major crops may amount to: wheat – about 22.4 million tons, barley – about 4.7 million tons, and corn – about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, the wheat harvest in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while the barley harvest decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s wheat harvest to decrease to 819.06 million tons and its exports to 211.70 million tons, down from 843.84 million tons and 222.68 million tons, respectively, last year.
The USDA’s first forecast for global corn production this year is 1,295.38 million tons, with exports for the 2026/27 marketing year at 206.91 million tons, while last year’s harvest was 1,312.68 million tons, and exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to reach 213.59 million tons.
According to Serbian Economist, FAS/USDA forecasts corn production in Serbia for the 2025/2026 marketing year (beginning in October 2025) at 7.1 million tons, with a harvested area of 950,000 hectares.
Corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 2.5 million tons, domestic consumption at 4.25 million tons, and ending stocks at 827,000 tons. The report notes that demand for Serbian corn on FOB terms from Danube ports is being held back by strong competition from Ukraine and Russia.
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The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global corn exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year by 1.63 million tons to 205.10 million tons, despite the expected reduction in Ukrainian supplies.
According to the December report, with global exports growing, the estimate of global corn carryover stocks, on the contrary, has been reduced by 2.19 million tons to 279.15 million tons, reflecting more active use of grain and the maintenance of a fairly tight supply and demand balance.
For Ukraine, the USDA has lowered its corn harvest forecast from 32 million tons to 29 million tons due to a reduction in acreage and yields, as well as difficult weather conditions during harvesting. The export forecast has been lowered from 24.5 million tons to 23 million tons, domestic consumption from 7 million tons to 6 million tons, and carryover stocks from 1.55 million tons to 0.85 million tons. This means that additional growth in global corn exports will be provided by other major market players.
In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
