The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2026/27 season amid ongoing supply constraints from Ukraine.
In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on August 12, the forecast for U.S. corn exports was raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, or approximately 83.8 million metric tons. Compared to the July estimate, the increase amounts to about 1.9 million metric tons, or 2.3%.
The USDA explicitly attributes the increase in the U.S. export forecast to rising global demand and limited export capacity from Ukraine.
At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons—from 23 million to 22 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s corn harvest itself, on the contrary, was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—from 30 million to 31.8 million metric tons.
Thus, Ukraine may harvest more corn than the USDA expected just a month ago, but a smaller portion of the harvest will be able to reach foreign markets.
As a result, the forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks has been increased from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than 2.3 times the previous figure. At the same time, the USDA left its forecast for domestic consumption virtually unchanged.
The situation on the global market is different. The USDA raised its forecast for global corn trade in the 2026/27 season by 0.6 million metric tons—from 209.88 million to 210.48 million metric tons.
The United States is the main source of this additional supply. At the same time, the USDA lowered its export forecast not only for Ukraine but also for the European Union.
The U.S. agency also raised its forecast for EU corn imports, while estimates for purchases by China and Turkey were lowered.
The growth in U.S. exports is occurring against the backdrop of a virtually unchanged forecast for U.S. corn production. The harvest is expected to reach about 16 billion bushels and could be the second-largest in the country’s history. However, the increase in export demand will lead to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks by 137 million bushels—to 1.7 billion bushels.
The USDA also raised its forecast for the average corn price for U.S. farmers by $0.10 to $4.50 per bushel.
Consequently, difficulties with Ukrainian corn exports are already beginning to shift the global market in favor of competing suppliers. The U.S. stands to increase shipments by nearly 2 million metric tons compared to the previous forecast, while Ukraine risks accumulating significant additional domestic stockpiles.
In its August forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for soybean and soybean meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year (marketing year, September 2026–August 2027) by 0.25 million metric tons—to 2.15 million metric tons and 1.25 million metric tons, respectively.
The USDA attributes these changes to a reduction in planted acreage and a decline in this year’s soybean harvest.
Overall, the forecast for oilseed exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 MY has also been reduced by 0.25 million metric tons—to 4.85 million metric tons—but this is higher than the 4.24 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 MY, although significantly lower than the 7.39 million metric tons recorded the year before.
As for oilseed processing, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects it to reach 16.9 million metric tons in Ukraine during the 2026/2027 marketing year, which is 0.3 million metric tons less than in the July report. This is higher than the figures for both the 2025/2026 marketing year (14.8 million metric tons) and the 2024/2025 marketing year (15.7 million metric tons).
The USDA also lowered its estimate for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year by 0.275 million metric tons, to 4.1 million metric tons.
All other estimates for harvest, processing, production, and exports for the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 marketing years remain unchanged.
Thus, the overall forecast for vegetable oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year remains at 6.13 million metric tons, compared to 5.15 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, including, respectively, sunflower oil at 4.95 million metric tons versus 4.1 million metric tons, sunflower meal at 3.3 million metric tons compared to 2.9 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, and sunflower seeds at 0.1 million metric tons versus 0.04 million metric tons
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, sunflower processing in Ukraine this marketing year will increase to 12.775 million metric tons from 10.8 million metric tons a year earlier, domestic consumption of sunflower meal will rise to 1.875 million metric tons from 1.65 million metric tons, and oil consumption will increase to 0.47 million metric tons from 0.455 million metric tons.
The USDA forecasts this year’s sunflower harvest at 13 million metric tons, with sunflower oil production at 4.418 million metric tons and meal production at 5.204 million metric tons.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
In its July WASDE report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year to 24 million metric tons from 23.5 million metric tons, which had been expected a month earlier.
According to the WASDE report, released on July 10, 2026, the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year remained virtually unchanged at 819.97 million metric tons, compared to 820.06 million metric tons in June. At the same time, the USDA notes that the wheat production forecast was raised for Russia and Ukraine due to favorable conditions for winter wheat.
The USDA raised its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 14.5 million metric tons from 14 million metric tons a month earlier. According to the report, global wheat exports for the 2026/27 marketing year have been raised to 213.1 million metric tons due to increased shipments from Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine, which more than offset the downward revision to Canada’s export forecast.
In the WASDE tables for the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine’s wheat production is estimated at 24.1 million metric tons, with exports at 14 million metric tons. In the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the USDA, Ukraine produced 23.4 million metric tons of wheat and exported 15.75 million metric tons.
The revision of the Ukrainian forecast comes amid a tighter global supply-demand balance. The USDA lowered its forecast for global ending wheat stocks in the 2026/27 marketing year to 272.8 million metric tons, which is 2.6 million metric tons less than the June estimate. At the same time, the forecast for global consumption was raised to 826.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture had previously forecast the 2026 grain harvest at approximately 60.4 million metric tons, including about 22.4 million metric tons of wheat, about 4.7 million metric tons of barley, and about 31.6 million metric tons of corn.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2025, Ukraine’s wheat harvest increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million metric tons, and the corn harvest rose by 14.6% to 30.9 million metric tons, while barley production fell by 2.4% to 5.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine remains one of the key wheat exporters in the Black Sea region; however, export volumes in the 2026/27 marketing year will depend not only on the harvest but also on the operation of the maritime corridor, logistics via the Danube and western borders, ship insurance, and the security situation regarding port infrastructure.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) left its forecast for corn production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year unchanged at 30 million metric tons in its July WASDE report.
The forecast for Ukrainian corn exports also remained unchanged at 23 million metric tons. According to the WASDE tables, the July estimate for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year indicates production of 30 million metric tons, exports of 23 million metric tons, and ending stocks of 2.06 million metric tons.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s corn harvest at 30.9 million metric tons and exports at 23 million metric tons. Thus, compared to the current season, the new forecast suggests a slight decline in production but maintains export potential at the same level.
In its global corn balance sheet, the USDA lowered its production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year to 1.297 billion metric tons in July, down from 1.300 billion metric tons a month earlier. The main decline is attributed to the European Union and Kenya, while the forecast for Ukraine remained unchanged.
Global corn exports for the 2026/27 marketing year, on the other hand, were raised to 209.88 million metric tons from 207.61 million metric tons in June. The USDA also lowered its forecast for global ending corn stocks to 275.26 million metric tons, down from 281.22 million metric tons in the June report.
The WASDE summary notes that foreign corn production has been reduced due to deteriorating prospects in the EU and Kenya. For the EU, the reduction is primarily due to the heatwave in France and a lower forecast for Hungary.
The Ukrainian corn forecast remains sensitive to weather conditions in the second half of the summer. Corn is more heavily dependent on precipitation and temperatures in July and August, so the actual harvest may differ significantly from the USDA’s current estimate.
