In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
According to the 7SDA forecast, total milk production in Ukraine will decline even further in 2026 due to a decrease in the number of cows, problems with industrial production related to the war, and inefficient household production. This forecast was made by analysts of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Milk production in Ukraine in 2026 is estimated at 6.8 million tons, which is 4% less than this year (7.1 million tons).
At the same time, consumption of dairy products in the country is expected to grow slightly next year, while the growth of Ukrainians’ incomes is offset by the outflow of population.
USDA forecast for production and trade of certain types of products
Cheese
production: 139 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons)
exports: 20 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons)
imports: 45 thousand tons (+2 thousand tons)
Butter
production: 73 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
exports: 14 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
The growth was driven by expected high demand on international markets and good production profitability.
Skimmed milk powder
production: 33 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
exports: 24 thsd tonnes (+1 thsd tonnes).
“Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 call for increased supply, increased processing, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. (…) The biggest surprise came from Ukraine, where production was sharply increased by 1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This is not only higher than the previous forecast, but also exceeds last season’s record (7 million tons).Global soybean production has been increased due to an increase in the production forecast for Ukraine based on government data on the progress of sowing,” the report notes.
The forecast for global soybean production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 0.86 million tons to 427.7 million tons, exports have been reduced by 0.8 million tons to 187.6 million tons, and final global soybean stocks have been increased by 0.77 million tons to 126.07 million tons.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its July forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MG, July-June) by 1 million tons compared to the June forecast, to 22 million tons (by 4.35%), while leaving its forecast for corn unchanged and raising its forecast for soybeans by 1 million tons, to 7.6 million tons (by 15.15%).
According to the US agency’s forecast, published on its website, wheat exports from Ukraine have been reduced by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons, while final stocks have been increased by 0.1 million tons to 1.59 million tons.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for global wheat and corn production in the 2025-2026 marketing year, with no change to its harvest forecast for Ukraine.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, the wheat harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 23 million tons, exports at 16.5 million tons, and ending stocks at 1.49 million tons. The corn harvest is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, with exports at 24 million tons and final stocks at 0.6 million tons.
At the same time, global wheat production in 2025/2026 MY will amount to 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), exports – 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons), and final stocks – 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
USDA analysts forecast global corn production in 2025/2026 MY at 1,265.98 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous season), global exports at 195.81 million tons (+0.01 million tons), and ending stocks at 275.24 million tons (-2.6 million tons).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Corn: world market
– Production: the forecast is increased by 0.9 million tons to 1 215.1 million tons. Increased production in the EU (+1.3 mln tonnes to 59.3 mln tonnes) due to higher harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by lower production in Romania and Bulgaria.
– Trade: Exports are revised upward by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons, mainly due to higher exports from the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons).
– Stocks: World ending stocks are lowered by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting a decrease in US stocks and an increase in stocks in South Korea and Pakistan.
