On April 19, early parliamentary elections will take place in Bulgaria — already the eighth since 2021. The vote is taking place against the backdrop of prolonged political instability, declining trust in institutions, protests at the end of 2025, and a new surge of struggle around the issue of corruption. According to the assessment of OSCE/ODIHR, the elections are being held under conditions of ongoing fragmentation of the political field and high polarization.
The information and analytical center Experts Club notes that the current campaign is particularly important for the region, as Bulgaria remains a member of the EU and NATO, controls part of the western coast of the Black Sea, and after joining the eurozone from January 1, 2026, has become even more deeply integrated into the European architecture. At the same time, Sofia currently appears to be one of the most politically vulnerable countries in Southeastern Europe.
The main intrigue of the campaign is whether former president Rumen Radev will be able to transform his personal popularity into a stable parliamentary majority. According to AP, his new coalition Progressive Bulgaria approaches the elections as the favorite and in most polls receives over 30% of the vote, ahead of its closest competitor by almost 10 percentage points. In a fresh survey by Gallup International Balkan, published on April 18, among decided voters Progressive Bulgaria receives 30.7%, GERB-UDF — 20.4%, and the pro-European coalition Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria — 10.4%. They are followed by MRF – New Beginning with 10.2% and Vazrazhdane with 6.6%; BSP-United Left is at the threshold with 3.9%.
Thus, the main players in these elections look as follows. First, “Progressive Bulgaria” of Rumen Radev — a new center-left coalition that builds its campaign on the promise to break the “oligarchic model” and relaunch governance of the country. Second, GERB-UDF of Boyko Borisov — a traditionally strong center-right force that has long dominated Bulgarian politics. Third, Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria, a centrist and pro-European bloc that focuses on an anti-corruption agenda. MRF — New Beginning, associated with the Turkish minority, and the nationalist Vazrazhdane, which a number of European sources characterize as a Eurosceptic and pro-Russian force, are also highly likely to enter parliament.
Preliminary results as of 12:00, according to the Bulgarian outlet “Dnevnik,” confirm the lead of Radev’s party.
The reason for the current vote was the collapse of the previous governing structure. According to OSCE/ODIHR, after the elections in October 2024, a minority government was formed headed by Rosen Zhelyazkov. Then a decision of the Constitutional Court in March 2025 changed the distribution of mandates, the coalition lost its margin of stability, and in December 2025 the cabinet resigned amid protests and corruption allegations. After unsuccessful attempts to form a new government, the presidential mandate cycle ended in failure, and the country went to new elections.
Even if Radev comes first, this does not automatically mean the emergence of a stable government. He has already ruled out an alliance with Borisov’s GERB and with DPS, and the most logical potential partner in terms of the domestic anti-corruption agenda could be the coalition “Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria.” However, this is where the main barrier arises: foreign policy. Radev condemns the war, but has opposed military aid to Ukraine and supported the resumption of dialogue with Moscow, while the pro-European bloc adheres to a much tougher line.
For the region, this makes the Bulgarian elections far more important than a typical domestic political campaign. In the event of a convincing victory for Radev, Sofia will of course not leave the EU and NATO, but may become more cautious and less predictable on issues of support for Ukraine, sanctions policy, and the overall line toward Russia. This is why Western media and analysts view Bulgaria as one of the potential pressure points on European unity following changes in the political landscape of neighboring countries.
A separate risk factor is the information environment. Euronews, citing the Center for the Study of Democracy, writes that Bulgaria remains one of the most vulnerable countries in the EU to malicious information manipulation, and the authorities have even engaged EU mechanisms to counter possible interference and disinformation ahead of the vote. Against this background, special attention is focused on the nationalist party Vazrazhdane, which has already figured in controversies around anti-Western and anti-eurozone narratives.
For the Balkans and the Black Sea region, three main scenarios are possible. The first is Radev’s victory followed by a complex but workable coalition agreement. In this case, Bulgaria may become a more autonomous and less ideologically pro-European actor, which will increase uncertainty for Ukraine and complicate coordination within the EU on security issues. The second is a victory without the ability to form a government. In that case, Bulgaria risks entering again a cycle of short-lived governing formulas and caretaker governments, which will weaken its role in regional projects and in Black Sea policy. The third is a weaker result for the favorite and an attempt by traditional pro-European forces to form an alternative coalition. Such a scenario would appear the most comfortable for Brussels, but for now is not considered the baseline scenario.
Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Bulgaria in March 2026 show a clear trend toward improvement. According to the results of a sociological survey conducted in March 2026 by the research company Active Group in collaboration with the Experts Club information and analytical center, 53.8% of respondents rate their attitude toward this country as positive, which is significantly higher compared to 44.3% in August 2025. At the same time, the share of negative assessments decreased from 3.7% to 2.3%, indicating a gradual strengthening of the country’s positive image.
In the breakdown of responses, 14.2% of respondents indicated a “completely positive” attitude toward Bulgaria, while another 39.6% described it as “mostly positive.” The share of neutral assessments remains significant at 42.4%, indicating a moderate or insufficiently formed perception among a significant portion of respondents. Negative assessments are limited in scope: 2.1% answered “mostly negative,” only 0.2% — “completely negative,” while 1.4% of respondents were undecided.
The trend is telling: the increase in positive assessments by more than 9 percentage points is accompanied by a simultaneous decline in the negative segment. This means that some respondents who previously held a reserved or critical stance are gradually shifting toward a positive perception.
At the same time, the high proportion of neutral responses indicates that Bulgaria’s image remains less distinct for a significant portion of Ukrainians compared to countries that have a more active presence in the public sphere or are associated with key political processes. In such cases, public opinion forms gradually and depends largely on the informational context and personal experience
An important feature is that even with a large neutral group, negative attitudes toward Bulgaria remain minimal. This creates a favorable foundation for further strengthening the country’s positive image in Ukrainian society.
“Ukrainians do not form their assessments in isolation—they react to the informational context and their own experience of interacting with countries. Where there are more signals and clear actions, we see an increase in positive assessments. Bulgaria is gradually moving into the group of countries with a consistently positive perception,” noted Oleksandr Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group.
Thus, the survey results indicate that Bulgaria is strengthening its position in the public opinion of Ukrainians. The growth of positive attitudes against a backdrop of low negative sentiment creates potential for the further development of bilateral relations at both the social and economic levels.
According to a study conducted by the Experts Club information and analytical center based on data from the State Customs Service, Bulgaria ranks twelfth in total trade volume of goods with Ukraine, with a figure of $2.99 billion. At the same time, imports of Bulgarian products exceed Ukrainian exports, resulting in a negative trade balance.
The study was presented at the Interfax-Ukraine press center; the video can be viewed on the agency’s YouTube channel. The full version of the study can be found at this link on the Experts Club analytical center’s website.
ACTIVE GROUP, BULGARIA, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY, UKRAINE, URAKIN
In early 2026, the Bulgarian housing market began to emerge from the frenzy associated with the country’s transition to the euro and is returning to a more stable demand pattern. The number of transactions fell by approximately 10%, while the supply increased by more than 25%, strengthening buyers’ bargaining power and extending the time properties remain on the market.
One of the main factors behind last year’s surge was the so-called “euro effect”—the expectation that housing prices would rise even faster after the currency change. However, judging by current trends, this driver has largely run its course. Bulgaria adopted the euro on January 1, 2026, and Central Bank Governor Dimitar Radev told Reuters that the inflationary effect of the transition turned out to be limited and largely one-time.
At the same time, the market does not appear weak in the classical sense of the word, as it continues to be supported by mortgage lending. Mortgage rates will remain low—around 2.47%—and official data from the Bulgarian National Bank, published via BTA, show that the volume of residential loans to households as of the end of February 2026 grew by 27.8% year-over-year—to €17.299 billion. This indicates that demand from end buyers remains strong, although the speculative component is noticeably weakening.
Thus, the Bulgarian real estate market is not entering a phase of sharp decline but is rather transitioning to a more realistic configuration: less hype, more supply, and a more cautious buyer. For investors, this marks the end of a period when the mere fact of joining the Eurozone automatically fueled expectations of rapid price growth, and for ordinary buyers, it signals the emergence of a more favorable window for selection and negotiation.
Source: https://relocation.com.ua/bulgarias-real-estate-market-is-shifting-from-a-boom-to-a-slowdown/
Starting May 20, 2026, the short-term rental market in Bulgaria will face stricter regulations: new EU-wide rules will require mandatory registration of properties and data sharing between platforms and the government, which could lead to the mass removal of illegal listings from Airbnb and Booking.com. The source of these changes is EU Regulation 2024/1028 on the collection and exchange of data regarding short-term rentals, which takes effect on May 20, 2026. Its goal is to increase transparency in the sector, simplify the identification of landlords, and provide national authorities with a tool to monitor compliance with local requirements.
According to Boris Pavlov, chairman of the Bulgarian Association of Tourism Real Estate and Innovation, about half of the current short-term rental listings in Bulgaria may disappear from platforms if owners do not register properly. This primarily concerns the shadow market segment, which has operated without full administrative and tax legalization.
Bulgarian law already requires that short-term rentals be registered as tourist accommodations rather than as ordinary private rentals. To do this, as industry guidelines indicate, municipal registration, submission of guest data via the ESTI system, and payment of tourist tax are typically required. New EU regulations are tightening controls specifically at the level of digital platforms, which will be required to work only with properly registered properties.
For the real estate and tourism markets, this has a dual effect. On the one hand, part of the supply may indeed leave the platforms in the coming months, which will support prices in the legal segment and strengthen the position of professional operators. On the other hand, stricter market filtering should increase the sector’s transparency, tax collection, and the predictability of rules for investors.
Against this backdrop, Bulgaria is entering a phase of a more formalized short-term rental market, where the key advantage will be not simply the availability of a property, but its full compliance with local and European regulations.
An analysis of the Bulgarian real estate market conducted by the Open4business portal showed that the growth in housing prices in Bulgaria has slowed, but foreign demand remains significant.
The pace of housing price growth in Bulgaria began to slow after a very strong surge throughout 2025, although the market itself remains in a growth phase. According to data from the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria (NSI), housing prices rose by 15.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, by 15.5% in the second quarter, and by 15.4% in the third quarter, indicating that the rate of price increases remains high but is no longer accelerating.
An additional factor driving growth in 2025 was the expectation of Bulgaria’s transition to the euro on January 1, 2026. As early as the end of 2025, Bulgarian media and market participants explicitly noted that some buyers were expediting their decisions specifically in anticipation of the currency change, which spurred activity in the housing market.
Foreigners continue to play a significant role in the Bulgarian real estate market, particularly in resort and coastal locations. However, it is important to note that complete official Bulgarian government statistics on homebuyers by citizenship for 2025–2026 are not publicly available. The most frequently cited recent breakdown of foreign demand is based on data from the Bulgarian Real Estate Association and market surveys. According to these estimates, in 2024–2025, the most active foreign buyers included citizens of the United Kingdom, Germany, Greece, Israel, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Russia, Ukraine, and Poland.
According to the same market data, Ukrainians rank among the top 10 foreign homebuyers in Bulgaria. Their demand is driven both by relocation due to the war and by investment interest, primarily in properties on the Black Sea coast and in tourist regions. Among the most sought-after destinations are Varna, Burgas, Nessebar, as well as the mountain resorts of Bansko and Pamporovo.
The market continues to be supported by a price base that is relatively low by EU standards. Even after the recent growth, Bulgaria remains one of the most affordable housing markets in the European Union, which continues to attract foreign capital and sustain demand for apartments both for personal use and for rental purposes.
In the near term, the most likely scenario appears to be a further slowdown in price growth rather than a sharp decline. While the market grew at double-digit rates in 2025, a transition to moderate growth—roughly in the range of 5–7% per year—seems more realistic for 2026. This forecast is based on the already noticeable slowdown in growth rates, the high-base effect, and the fact that the euro has already been introduced and a significant portion of speculative demand was likely realized in advance.
On February 1, Bulgaria ended its transition period for currency change, during which it was possible to pay in both Bulgarian levs and euros. Now, payments are made exclusively in euros, according to the Bulgarian service of Radio Liberty.
“At midnight on January 31, the one-month period during which the euro and the lev were in simultaneous circulation in Bulgaria ended. From February 1, merchants no longer accept payments in levs and must give change only in the single European currency,” according to a statement on the publication’s website.
People who still have cash levs can exchange them for euros at commercial banks and Bulgarian Post offices until June 30. After that date, commercial banks may set a certain exchange rate, but the Bulgarian National Bank will continue to offer cash lev-euro exchanges free of charge and without a deadline.
Retail chains will have to display prices for goods in both euros and levs for another six months, until August 8, “for transparency and to prevent speculative practices.”
Although the law prohibits sellers of goods and services from raising prices during the first six months of the euro’s introduction, hundreds of complaints about possible violations have already been received.
Bulgaria joined the eurozone on January 1, 2026, 18 years after joining the EU. January was a transition period when the lev and the euro were in circulation simultaneously.
