UBS analysts expect copper prices to rise next year due to reduced supply amid ongoing mine disruptions.
In addition, the rise will be supported by high long-term demand associated with the transition to clean energy and increased investment in this area, the bank said in a statement.
UBS raised its copper price forecast for the end of the first quarter of 2026 by $750 to $11,500 per ton. Expectations for June and September were raised by $1,000 to $12,000 and $12,500 per ton, respectively. Experts also set a target level for December next year at $13,000 per ton.
Analysts now believe that the copper deficit in the global market this year will be about 230,000 tons, compared to the previously expected 53,000 tons, and in 2026 – 407,000 tons, compared to 87,000 tons. In their opinion, declining inventories and ongoing supply risks will keep the market tight.
Disruptions at mines this year, including production problems at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower recovery of production in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru, highlight structural supply constraints that are likely to persist until 2026, the bank said in a statement.
Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to resume production at the Grasberg copper and gold mine by July after operations were suspended two months ago due to a fatal accident.
UBS lowered its forecast for refined copper production growth to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% next year, citing deteriorating ore quality and operational problems. Analysts expect global demand for the metal to increase by 2.8% both this year and next due to the development of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, investments in power grids, and data centers.
The bank’s experts believe that any price decline will be short-lived and recommend maintaining long positions in copper.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video dedicated to global copper production and leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
In January-October 2025, Ukraine increased imports of copper and copper products by 27.4% compared to the same period last year, to $148.05 million.
Copper exports during this period increased by 15.1%, reaching $84.02 million, according to the State Customs Service.
In October, imports amounted to $14.46 million, while exports amounted to $12.91 million.
For comparison: in 2024, copper imports remained almost unchanged at $140.8 million, while exports increased by 22.4% to $88.24 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, in the production of pipes, in the creation of alloys, in medicine, and in other industries.
The Experts Club Information and Analytical Center has presented a video analysis of global copper production from 1970 to 2024. Chile continues to confidently maintain its leadership in the global copper market, smelting 5.3 million tons of metal in 2024. This is evidenced by data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) published in the Experts Club analytical video.
The Democratic Republic of Congo ranks second with 3.3 million tons, followed by Peru (2.6 million tons), China (1.8 million tons), and Indonesia (1.1 million tons).
The top ten copper producers also include the United States (1.1 million tons), Russia (930,000 tons), Australia (800,000 tons), Kazakhstan (740,000 tons), and Mexico (700,000 tons).
The list of the world’s 20 leading producers also includes countries such as Zambia, Canada, Poland, Brazil, Panama, Mongolia, Iran, Armenia, Serbia, and Bolivia.
Experts note that the distribution of copper production by country has become more diversified in recent decades. In addition to the traditional leaders in Latin America, African and Asian countries are playing an increasingly important role.
Copper remains one of the most important industrial metals in the world, used in construction, power generation, telecommunications, and especially in the production of “green technologies” — electric vehicles, solar and wind power plants.
The Experts Club video analysis is available at link
In January-August 2025, Ukraine increased imports of copper and copper products by 32.2% year-on-year – to $122.747 million.
Exports during this period increased by 5.7% to $61.542 million.
In August, imports amounted to $12.759 million, while exports amounted to $6.105 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, in the manufacture of pipes, in the creation of alloys, in medicine, and in other industries.
In January-July of this year, Ukrainian enterprises increased imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 29.1% compared to the same period last year, to $109.984 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine on Tuesday, exports of copper and copper products during the period increased by 12.7% to $55.437 million.
In July, copper imports amounted to $16.821 million, while exports amounted to $9.357 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, pipe manufacturing, alloy production, medicine, and other industries.
In January-May 2025, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products by 20% compared to the same period last year, to $77.971 million. This is evidenced by the data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
Copper exports also increased by 17.8% to $38.762 million over the same period. In May, the volume of imports amounted to $16.245 million, and exports – $9.635 million.
For comparison, in 2024, the volume of copper imports remained virtually unchanged compared to 2023 and amounted to $140.797 million. At the same time, exports increased by 22.4% to $88.237 million.
In 2023, despite the war, Ukraine doubled its copper imports to $140.795 million (+120% yoy), while exports decreased by 20.1% to $72.078 million. The upward trend in copper trade in 2025 indicates a recovery in demand for the metal from both the domestic market and foreign buyers.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, pipe manufacturing, alloys, medicine and other industries.
imports, exports, copper
