In its new video, the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” analyzed the situation in the Ukrainian economy before the start of the Russian aggression. As you know, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has temporarily suspended the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021, as well as for the period January-February 2022.
If we return to the indicators of the beginning of the year, at that time we could talk about economic growth and recovery after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says the founder of the Club of Experts, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin.
“Officially, the number of unemployed in the country, according to the State Employment Center, as of January 2022, was just over 358,000 people. In this direction, there was a positive trend and the recovery of jobs after the labor market crisis that was caused by the pandemic,” he explained.
In addition, the expert noted that according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 grew by 3.4% after a decline of 3.8% a year earlier. At the same time, there was an increase in industrial production and retail trade within the country.
“Industrial production in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 1.1% after a 5% drop in 2020. At the same time, in 2021, compared to the twentieth, the retail trade turnover increased significantly, by more than ten percent and amounted to more than one trillion four hundred forty-three billion hryvnia,” Urakin added.
All this, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, may indicate that in the pre-war period the country’s economy showed positive indicators of development.
The full video can be viewed on the YouTube channel “Expert Club” at the link:
Foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine in the iii quarter of 2021 (operations, $ million)
The total amount of direct documented damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure as a result of the Russian military invasion has reached almost $88 billion, Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak said in a telegram.
“Over the past week, direct losses to the Ukrainian economy due to destruction and damage to civilian and military infrastructure have increased by $3.1 billion,” he wrote, referring to the “Russia will pay” project implemented by the KSE Institute with the support of the Office of the President of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Reintegration and the Ministry of Infrastructure.
Yermak noted that the total losses of the Ukrainian economy – direct and indirect – due to the war range from $564 billion to $600 billion.
“Russia must be responsible for all crimes and destruction in our state, and it is at the expense of the aggressor, in addition to international assistance and money from our budget, that Ukraine must be restored,” the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine stressed.
He clarified that this estimate of the cost of losses from the ongoing war has so far been made only on the basis of public sources.
According to the data he cited, as of today, at least 23 thousand km of roads, 277 bridges and bridge crossings, 11 military airfields, 1 airport have been destroyed or seized.
In addition, 535 kindergartens, 866 institutions of secondary, higher and higher education, 231 medical institutions, 173 factories and enterprises, at least 75 administrative buildings were damaged or destroyed.
Foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine in the III quarter of 2021 (operations, $ million)
The amount of direct losses incurred by Ukraine’s infrastructure from full-scale Russian military aggression has already reached $119 billion, work is underway to compensate for them at the expense of the seized gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Denys Kudin has said.
“When the president’s office yesterday or the day before yesterday announced over $100 billion, this figure is somewhat clarified. It is $119 billion. Unfortunately, it will grow with every next day of the war,” he said on Ukrainian TV channels.
According to Kudin, one of the ways to compensate for losses and restore infrastructure is to work through cooperation with Western governments. “Western governments have already seized the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia in the amount of $415 billion. In fact, this amount is almost enough to cover these direct one-time losses,” the first deputy minister said.
According to him, the Ministry of Economy expects that in the near future, together with partner governments of other countries, a legal mechanism will be found, how this money can go to Ukraine for further recovery.
The first deputy minister said that the Ministry of Economy from the first day began to count the losses that the state suffered due to Russian aggression. According to him, in addition to the direct approach to determining the damage (how much it will cost to restore bridges, roads, infrastructure facilities, hospitals, kindergartens, schools destroyed by Russia), there is a second approach – the amount of GDP losses.
“We see that in cities and towns where active hostilities are taking place, economic activity has decreased by 75%. In the rest of Ukraine, only every second business operates. This is a loss of 50% of economic activity,” Kudin said.
He added that most of the metallurgical plants, most of which are located in the east of the country, have ceased their activities. “The blocking of sea routes by the Russians, of course, does not make it possible to fully export corn, wheat, sunflower oil – traditional agricultural export products,” the first deputy head of the Ministry of Economy said.
According to him, among other ways for Russia to compensate for these losses is the judicial, claims work of the government of Ukraine against the Russian Federation in international courts. “We are talking about the International Criminal Court, and about the ECHR, and about commercial arbitrations around the world. In each of these courts, Ukraine files lawsuits against the Russian Federation,” Kudin said.
He said that the collection of evidence from Ukrainians about the destruction has begun in electronic form, since it is important to document every fact of destruction jointly by all the people so that this becomes the material basis for claims.
The first deputy head of the Ministry of Economy also named a third way to receive compensation for damage from the aggressor – “the way of reparations after the signing of a peace treaty and the actual surrender of the enemy.” “They [reparations] can be in two forms – in cash and in kind. In the form of reparations, they could receive energy resources and other types of material values that Ukraine needs,” Kudin said.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 for the first time amounted to about $200 billion.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to 3.2%, which won’t compensate for the 4% economic decline in 2020, head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 3.2%, and in 2023 to 3.5%, while in October last year it expected it to increase accordingly by 3.5% and 3.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its estimate of the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 from 3.8% to 3.4%, in 2021 – to 3% from 3.1%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2021 fell by 13.2% compared to January-November 2020, to $3.607 billion from $4.158 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2021 accelerated to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019.
Inflation in the raw food group of goods in 2022 may range from 10% to 20%, which will lead to an inflationary jump to 8-10% and, in turn, will require anti-crisis measures, adviser to the Ukrainian president Oleh Ustenko has said.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in 2021 amounted to UAH 166.8 billion, while the plan was UAH 220.9 billion, and in December the deficit of the general fund was UAH 109.1 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported with reference to the operational data of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total state debt of Ukraine in December grew by 4.04% in U.S. dollars to $97.95 billion, in hryvnias by 4.43%, to UAH 2.671 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, released on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine grew by 1.1% in 2021, while a 5.2% decline was recorded in 2020.
Ukraine in January-November 2021 sold industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 3.185 trillion, which is 44.2% more than in January-November 2020 (UAH 2.209 trillion), including outside the country in the amount of UAH 920.471 billion.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 5.1% compared to 2020, while the growth rate in 2020 compared to 2019, according to updated data, was 5.6%.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
Since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of January 21, Ukraine has exported 36.08 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 27.6% more than the figures for the same date of the previous marketing year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
Previously Experts Business Club created a video summary dedicated to macroeconomics.
Full video watch here