Business news from Ukraine

IMF RESIDENT REP IN UKRAINE: ONCE ECONOMY RECOVERS, FISCAL DEFICIT SHOULD RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine should fiscal deficit will need to return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as the economy recovers and the pandemic dissipates, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman told Interfax-Ukraine.
“Once the pandemic dissipates and the economy recovers, the fiscal deficit will need to return to pre-pandemic levels. This is important to instill confidence in Ukraine’s economy and reduce Ukraine’s borrowing needs,” he said.
Ljungman said that a strong fiscal position also gives Ukraine room to provide fiscal stimulus in the case of a future downturn.
“So the question should not be if Ukraine should reduce the fiscal deficit, but when. And in order to do so, there needs to be already a good plan for how that would happen, including through well-designed tax measures,” Ljungman said.

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN JAN-FEB 2021

The Ministry of Economy estimates the drop in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2020 at 4.2%, which is associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, Minister of Economy Ihor Petrashko has said while discussing the economic strategy until 2030.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture has improved its estimate of the contraction of the Ukrainian economy in October-December to 1%, while at the end of last year the ministry expected the economy to fall by 3% in the fourth quarter.
MPs of Ukraine should use all opportunities to create the basis for economic growth next year, First Deputy Head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction and leader of the eponymous party Oleksandr Korniyenko has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to increase the share of mortgage from the current 0.7% to 2% of GDP by 2024, NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko has said.
The price of Ukraine’s VRIs (value recovery instruments) may rise by up to 140-170% thanks to the recovery of the Ukrainian economy compared to the current market price of 113%, analysts at Deutsche Bank believe.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 slowed down to 0.7% from 3.5% in the third quarter and 11.4% in the second quarter, the State Statistics Service has said.
After a 4.1% decline last year, Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4.2% this year, with inflation rising from 5% to 7.2%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Concorde Capital investment company, forwarded to Interfax-Ukraine.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, the agency said on its website.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in January 2021 amounted to $3.93 billion, which is $270 million, or 5.6% less than in the same period in 2020 and is associated with a decrease in exports of corn, wheat, soybeans and meal, Deputy Economy Minister, Trade Representative Taras Kachka said on Facebook on Tuesday.
In 2020, Ukraine doubled its export of goods to China compared to 2019, to $7.1 billion with imports from China at $8.3 billion, while imports from the Russian Federation decreased 35%, to $2.7 billion with exports being $4.5 billion, Deputy Minister of Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture, Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka has said.
Ukraine in 2020 imported 531,400 vehicles worth more than $ 4.2 billion, including 486,300 passenger cars for almost $ 3.5 billion, Ukrautoprom reported.
Inflation in 2021 will warm the economy, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 6.1% from 5% in December and 3.8% in November, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after keeping the refinancing rate at 6% per annum for nine months, on March 4 will increase it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.), to 6.5%, most bankers interviewed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency are inclined to this opinion.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2021, according to preliminary data, fell to $28.821 billion (equivalent), which is $279 million less than at the beginning of January this year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
The total public debt of Ukraine in January 2021 expanded by 0.53% in U.S. dollars, to $90.74 billion and by 0.25% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.558 trillion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Prices in Ukrainian industry in January 2021 compared to January 2020 grew by 17.6%, the State Statistics Service said on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2021, which was subject to stricter quarantine, fell by 4% compared to the pre-COVID-19 January 2020, and adjusted to the effect of calendar days the decline was even smaller – 2.7%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO area) in January 2021 reduced carriage of goods by 2.2% compared to January 2020, to 42.8 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukrainian transport companiestransported 187.1 million people in January 2021, which is 44.7% less than in the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January 2021 at comparable prices increased by 3.5% compared to January 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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UKRAINIAN ECONOMY COULD GROW BY 4.3% IN 2021

Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by 4.3% in 2021, according to the economic forecast of the German Economic Team (GET) and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
“In 2021, we expect a recovery of the economy thanks to the growth of private consumption in relation to demand and increased production in industry, transport, as well as in agriculture in relation to supply. This will be facilitated by the recovery of the economy in partner countries and an increase in trade flows,” the experts said.
At the same time, they note the uncertainty about the future situation with the pandemic, cooperation with the IMF and political risks as early elections.
At the same time, the experts said that quarantine restrictions could last until the end of spring, and cooperation with the IMF would be unblocked, and the funds could be received in April-June, as well as in the second half of 2021.
The analysts also expect inflation to slightly exceed the National Bank’s target range in the short term.

MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN DEC 2020 – JAN 2021

The World Bank revised upward its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 to 3%, while early October it estimated the prospects for recovery to be twice as modest – at 1.5%.
The Ministry for the Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine estimates the drop in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in January-March 2021 at 3%, according to the Economic Activity Review posted on the ministry’s website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimated the fall of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 at 4.4% and kept the forecast for its growth by 4.2% in 2021, according to the NBU website.
The implementation of the National Economic Strategy 2030 will allow Ukraine to double its GDP in 10 years, the head of the working group on developing the strategy, Kyrylo Kryvolap, has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2020 decreased 58.6% compared to January-November 2019, to $3.897 billion from $9.417 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2020 accelerated to 5% from 4.1% in 2019, being in the center of the inflation target of the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the key policy rate from 7.5% to 7% by the end of 2021, Deputy Head of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said.
The deficit of the General Fund of the state budget in 2020 amounted to UAH 215.5 billion with the target being UAH 274.5 billion, the Ministry of Finance said with reference to the recent data of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Prices in the Ukrainian industry in December 2020 increased by 14.5% compared to December 2019, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukrainian manufacturers of vehicles in 2020 reduced their production by 32% compared to 2019, to 4,952 units, according to the website of the Ukrautoprom association.
Agricultural enterprises spent all budgetary funds of government support, the total amount of which was UAH 4 billion, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko has said.
Ukrainian transport companies reduced the cargotransportation by 11.2% in 2020 compared to 2019, to 600 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service said.
Ukrainian transport companies carried 2.569 billion passengers in 2020, which is 39.7% less than in the same period in 2019, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in 2020 increased by 8.4% compared to 2019 in comparable prices, the State Statistics Service said.

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN OCT-NOV

Fitch Ratings has assigned the City of Kyiv’s upcoming domestic bond issue an expected Long-Term Rating of ‘B(EXP)’, Fitch said on its website.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine estimates the decline in the gross domestic product of Ukraine (GDP) in the third quarter of 2020 at 3.6%, and in January-September of this year – by 5.5%, according to the Economic Activity Survey released on the ministry’s website on Thursday.
Ukraine should show much faster increase the development of mineral deposits in the next 10 years, which can additionally bring $400 billion of additional GDP over this period, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has said.
Ukraine plans to increase the annual flow of foreign tourists to 30 million people, domestic to 60 million by 2030, and also intends to increase the industry’s share in GDP to 10%, according to the National Economic Strategy 2030, presented by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
The Cabinet of Ministers plans to increase Ukraine’s dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from $136 billion at the end of 2019 to $300-460 billion by 2030, according to the “Vectors of Economic Development until 2030,” published on the government portal on Friday.
The drop in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the third quarter of 2020 was 3.5% compared to the same period in 2019, while in the second quarter the decline was 11.4%, and in the first 1.3%, this preliminary estimate was published by the State Statistics Service.
The fall of the Ukrainian economy amid a strict quarantine will amount to 5.4% of GDP in 2020, and amid a moderate one 5.1% of GDP, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
The drop in GDP in Ukraine by the end of 2020 should not exceed 5%, Yulia Kovaliv, the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2020 halved compared to the same period in 2019, to $3.93 billion from $8.15 billion, in November the foreign trade deficit amounted to $590 million compared to $360 million in deficit in October and $860 million in deficit in November last year.
Growth in consumer prices in Ukraine in October 2020 accelerated to 1% from 0.5% in September after falling 0.2% in August and 0.6% in July, the State Statistics Service reported on Monday.
National budget receipts in October 2020 amounted to UAH 77.2 billion, which is 9.8% higher than the planned figure and 8.5% higher than last year’s level, according to data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Keeping the key policy rate at 6% was supported by nine out of 10 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at the meeting on October 21, given the heightened uncertainty and the symmetrical balance of inflation risks, the regulator said on Monday on its website.
The total public debt of Ukraine in October 2020 increased by 0.46% in dollars, to $83.27 billion and by 0.96% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.368 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The prices of industrial producers in Ukraine in October 2020 grew by 3.8%, while in September by 1.7%, in August – by 2.3%, in July – by 0.4%, and in June and in May, their decline was recorded by 2% and 0.6%, respectively, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in October 2020 compared to October 2019 decreased by 5%, while in September the drop was 4.4%, in August 5.3%, in July 4.2%, June 5.6%, May 12.2% and April 16.2%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
As of November 26, Ukrainian agricultural producers harvested 80.3 million tonnes of basic crops from an area of 23.5 million ha, in particular, 61.9 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops were harvested from an area of about 14.9 million ha (97% forecast).
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in October 2020 increased by 13.3% compared to October 2019, while in September compared to September a year earlier – by 11.8%.
The retail trade turnover of Ukraine in October 2020 grew by 15.2% compared to the same month in 2019 in comparable prices, while in the previous month the growth was 11.6%, the State Statistics Service said.

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DEUTSCHE BANK EXPECTS UKRAINE’S ECONOMY TO FALL BY 5.5% OF GDP IN 2020

The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 may amount to 5.5% of GDP with a further recovery of growth by 3.5-4% in the next two years, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect.
According to the materials of Emerging Markets Outlook 2021, experts admit that the next tranche of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be allocated to Ukraine in early 2021, which will pave the way for obtaining funding from other international partners.
At the same time, the central bank will leave the discount rate at 6% per annum, according to the review.

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