The survey, conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, revealed citizens’ attitudes to various aspects of social and economic life in Ukraine, including the initiative to refund part of the cost of Ukrainian goods, the government’s influence on business, the level of trust in law enforcement, financial stability of citizens, and forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate.
A significant proportion of respondents (44%) have heard of the initiative to refund the cost of purchasing Ukrainian goods, with opinions divided on its impact on living standards. Most respondents believe that the government will increase taxes to finance this initiative.
According to Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the sociological research company Active Group, this raises concerns among the population, as most are not ready for an increase in the fiscal burden.
The study also revealed a deep distrust of government institutions (57% of citizens) and law enforcement agencies (62%) in the context of relations with business, in particular due to the lack of transparency and efficiency of their work. The majority of respondents believe that the state hinders rather than helps business to develop, and this trend has increased compared to previous months.
A significant number of Ukrainians (up to 60%) are experiencing financial difficulties, including increased debt and lack of savings for a rainy day. Respondents also expressed concern about the future of the hryvnia exchange rate, with the majority (55%) expecting it to fall.
In the context of utility bills, the vast majority (67%) of respondents believe that the level of tariffs is too high, which further emphasizes the general dissatisfaction with the financial situation and government policy in this area.
According to Oleksandr Poznyi, Director of Active Group, these results demonstrate the serious challenges faced by Ukrainian society in the context of the war and the current economic situation.
Earlier, Maksym Urakin, the founder of the Experts Club think tank, noted that in 2024 Ukraine’s public debt may exceed GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability in the country.
For more details, please see the video at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hkvHhyzGLQ
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here:
ACTIVE_GROUP, ANDRIY_EREMENKO, ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, OLEXANDR_POZNYI, POLITICS, SOCIOLOGY, TAXES, URAKIN
Germany’s economy will avoid recession in 2024, but will grow by only 0.1% due to declining exports and weak domestic demand, according to leading German research institutes.
The previous forecast, prepared by the Munich-based Institute for Economic Research (IFO), the Kiel-based Institute for World Economics (IfW), the Rhineland-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research in Essen (RWI) and the Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), predicted German GDP growth of 1.3%.
In 2023, the German economy shrank by 0.3%.
The economists warned that domestic demand is growing more slowly than expected, and exports are suffering due to high electricity prices, which reduce the competitiveness of German energy-intensive goods.
“Cyclical and structural factors are leading to a weakening of economic growth,” said Stefan Koots, head of economic research at the IfW. – “A recovery may begin in the spring, but overall, the growth momentum will not be very strong.
In 2025, according to experts, Germany’s GDP growth will accelerate to 1.4%.
The forecast for inflation for 2024 is 2.3%, for 2025 – 1.8%.
Earlier, Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of GDP changes in major countries, the video is available at https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=EpL-_EmhIGfMURGl
PJSC National Depository of Ukraine, trader Univer Capital LLC, custodian Management Treasure Trading Limited LLC and five more asset management companies (AMCs) have been identified as critical for the functioning of the economy and ensuring life support in a special period, which increases their ability to armor employees from mobilization.
The National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) made the relevant decisions and published them on its website, establishing that these companies meet the requirements previously defined by the Commission.
In particular, it is about AMC-APF Apinvest, AMC Univer Management, AMC Diamant Invest Management, AMC Klever Capital and AMC Aktiv (all – LLC).
Earlier, in February, BTS Broker LLC, Investment Capital of Ukraine (ICU) LLC, Dragon Capital JV LLC and First Global Initiative Securities Trader (FGI) LLC also received such status from the NCSSM
In addition, a similar decision was made in respect of the state institution “Agency for Development of Stock Market Infrastructure” as the only company in the market, which is still engaged in the provision of information services.
As reported, the list of criteria for classifying professional market participants as important for the market NCSSM approved the decision № 24 of January 10 this year. According to it, investment firms that have carried out at their own expense or at the expense of clients purchase and sale transactions of government bonds in 2023 in the amount of UAH 100 million and asset management companies (AMCs), whose funds invested in government bonds in 2023 from UAH 30 million, may receive the status of critical and additional opportunities to book their employees from mobilization.
Alternatively, AMCs can make loans of UAH 100 million or more to defense-related entities in 2023 by the funds it manages.
The Commission also recognizes as important for the market property managers for financing construction projects or real estate transactions, if their activities are related to the construction of housing for the needs of the Ministry of Defense or war veterans and their families (subject to confirmation by the relevant state body).
In addition, the list of important professional participants that ensure the formation and functioning of the securities depository system, the formation and functioning of organized capital markets or organized commodity markets will be included in the list of important ones.
An enterprise will also be defined as important for the market if it provides clearing and settlements (organization of settlements) on completed transactions in financial instruments or products or provides functioning of the non-state pension provision system.
Finally, enterprises that are issuers participating in the fulfillment of military orders (subject to confirmation of the relevant state body) are defined as important.
ECONOMY, life activity reservation from mobilization, Management Trezhe Trading Limited, National Depository of Ukraine, Univer Capital
In his analytical video published on the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maxim Urakin, founder of the project and PhD in Economics, focuses on the key indicator of global macroeconomics – gross domestic product (GDP), which plays a central role in analyzing the economic well-being of countries. GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. This indicator helps to assess how productive a country’s economy is and is an important indicator of its overall economic well-being.
Analyzing GDP dynamics on a global scale
According to Urakin, analyzing the last decades shows significant changes in the global economy.
“In the 1990s to 2000s, first of all, there was significant economic growth in countries such as the US and China, as well as in developing countries such as India. It was a time of economic prosperity for developed countries and a period of rapid growth for some emerging markets,” explained the founder of Experts Club.
But then the world economy was rocked by crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent European debt crisis. These events, according to Expert Club, slowed global GDP growth and exposed the vulnerability of many economies previously considered promising.
“In recent years, we have faced new challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a significant downturn in the global economy, and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine. These events have re-emphasized the interconnectedness and interdependence in the global economy,” said Urakin.
GDP and geopolitical changes
Urakin notes that in the context of geopolitics, GDP serves not only as a measure of economic development but also as an indicator of international influence.
“India, surpassing the UK, has become the fifth largest economy in the world, which emphasizes the shift of global economic forces to the Asian region. This is also confirmed by the fact that China, having overtaken the US in terms of purchasing power, has confirmed its status as a global economic power,” the economist emphasized.
Future trends
Analysis of global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage.
To learn more about global GDP, check out the video on the Experts Club channel at the link:
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https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time (usually a year). It measures a country’s total output and economic activity, being one of the key indicators of its economic health.
Nominal GDP is an estimate of gross domestic product expressed in current market prices, not adjusted for inflation or deflation. This means that when measuring nominal GDP, current prices of goods and services are taken into account, which can lead to higher GDP when prices rise (inflation), even if actual output has not increased.
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) GDP is a method of estimating GDP that takes into account differences in the cost of living and price level between countries. The PPP GDP calculation uses prices adjusted to reflect real purchasing power in different countries. This allows for a more accurate comparison of living standards and economic activity between countries because it takes into account differences in the cost of goods and services in different places.
In 2023, Ukraine received external financing totaling $42.5 billion, of which $11.6 billion (27%) was non-repayable grant aid, the Ministry of Finance reported.
“Long-term concessional loan financing totaling $30.9 billion was attracted, in particular from the EU ($19.5 billion), the IMF ($4.5 billion), Japan ($3.4 billion), Canada ($1.8 billion), the UK ($1 billion), the World Bank ($660 million), and Spain ($50 million),” the report cites statistics on revenues.
Grant assistance was provided by the United States, Japan, Norway, Germany, Spain, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium, and Iceland.
“Funds from the EU were raised as part of macro-financial assistance. Loans under the EU macro-financial assistance programs have a 35-year maturity (including a 10-year grace period), and the costs of servicing them are reimbursed by the EU,” the Ministry of Finance said.
As of the end of 2023, the weighted average cost of public and publicly guaranteed debt was 6.24%, which is 1.4 percentage points less than in the previous year, the Ministry added.
At the same time, the weighted average term to maturity of Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by more than two years to 10.56 years last year.
In total, in 2023, the total amount of Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by UAH 1,444 billion in hryvnia equivalent and by $33.9 billion in dollar equivalent, mainly due to an increase in long-term concessional financing from international partners.
As of December 31, 2023, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 5.5 trillion, or $145.3 billion.
A detailed video analysis of the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/byJnfmie7bM?si=ZI410qh5NBA-jcpi
The German economy may enter recession in the first quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank said in its monthly report. According to the German central bank, the country’s GDP is likely to decline slightly again in January-March.
It contracted by 0.3% in quarterly terms in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The final data will be presented on Friday.
As negative factors for the German economy, the Bundesbank notes a significant decline in demand for industrial exports, the likely continued restraint of consumers in spending, increased uncertainty about climate policy, a decrease in order books in industry and construction, as well as strikes, including in rail transport and aviation.
