Business news from Ukraine

ZELENSKY: UKRAINE NEEDS $4-5 BLN TO STABILIZE ECONOMY

Ukraine will spend at least $4-5 billion to stabilize the economic situation, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
“To stabilize our economy, we will spend about $4-5 billion. I do not count on a smaller figure, this is the amount we need,” Zelensky said at a briefing with foreign media representatives in Kyiv on Friday.
The President said that the West, providing Ukraine with funding and assistance, gives an appropriate signal of support for the country.
“But the question is still not in the amount, but in the fact that they believe in the economy of Ukraine and send the appropriate signals,” Zelensky said.

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PRIME MINISTER OF UKRAINE: NO THREATS TO ECONOMY

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal says there are currently no threats to the functioning of the national economy, except for disinformation pressure.
“There are no threats to the functioning of the national economy, except for information, especially disinformation pressure. There are no other factors that can destabilize the national economy today,” Shmyhal said after the NSDC meeting on Monday evening.

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UKRAINE TO DEVELOP COOPERATION WITH JAPAN

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said that Ukraine expects to further develop cooperation with Japan in the spheres of economy, IT and culture, the press service of the government reported.
“I am sure that Japan, as one of the world’s largest investors, can also become one of the leaders in foreign direct investment in the Ukrainian economy,” Shmyhal said following a meeting with Japanese Ambassador to Ukraine Kuninori Matsuda.
According to the prime minister, the conclusion of a new intergovernmental convention on the avoidance of double taxation can contribute to attracting investments.
“The Prime Minister stressed the importance of effective implementation of joint projects, in particular, the reconstruction of the Bortnychi wastewater treatment plant, which was also noted by the Japanese Ambassador to Ukraine Kuninori Matsuda,” the press service said.

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN OCT-NOV

Oxford Economics has worsened its expectations for real GDP growth in Ukraine to 3.5% in 2021 from 4% in the August forecast, as well as the forecast for economic growth in 2022 – to 3.4% from 3.5%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021 at 3.5%, according to its November forecast released on Thursday.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.4% compared to the third quarter of 2020 after growing by 5.7% in the second quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such preliminary estimates.
The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2021, taking into account the preliminary data of the State Statistics Service for the third quarter, may turn out to be at the level of 3% against 4.6% set in the state budget for this year, which will mean the absence of payments on value recovery instruments (VRI) in 2023, according to experts interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP in January-September 2021 grew by 2% compared to the same period last year, Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said. J.P. Morgan has sharply downgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 4.5% to 2.3%, while maintaining its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 by 5%, according to the materials of the November EMEA Emerging Markets Research. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3% from 3.4% in the October outlook, the growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 3.5% from 4.2%, according to the outlook materials.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 may be lower than the 3.1% previously predicted by the central bank, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in the October forecast, according to Ukraine’s memorandum with the fund, released on November 24.
The surplus of the foreign trade of Ukraine for January-September 2021 increased by 95.7% compared to January-September 2020 – up to $440 million.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2021 decreased by 37.9% compared to January-September 2020, to $ 1.966 billion from $ 3.166 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine year-over-year in October 2021 decreased to 10.9% from 11% in September, the State Statistics Service reported.
The total public debt of Ukraine in October 2021 grew by 0.66% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.63 billion, while it decreased by 0.28% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.438 trillion.
After a 0.7% decline in September in October 2021, industrial production in Ukraine returned to growth and grew by 1.4% compared to October 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 4% in October 2021 y-o-y, and decreased by 2.2% compared to September of this year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN SEPT-OCT

Ukraine may receive a tranche of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of about $1.4 billion in October-December 2021, J.P. Morgan said in the October EMEA EM Emerging Markets research. The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January-August 2021 accelerated to 2.9% compared to 2.1% in January-July 2021, the Ministry of Economy has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened its estimate of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 from 3.8% to 3.1%, in 2022 – to 3.8% from 4%, the regulator said on its official website.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley have maintained an estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 at 3.4%, and 4.2% in 2022, according to the forecast materials available to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods over January-August 2021 decreased by 33.9% compared to the same period in 2020, to $1.731 billion from $2.619 billion.
The year-over-year growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in September 2021 accelerated to 11% from 10.2% in August, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in September 2021 amounted to UAH 26.5 billion, and the overall state budget – UAH 31.4 billion, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday.
The total public debt of Ukraine in September 2021 felll by 0.55% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.02 billion, while it decreased by 1.6% in hryvnia, to UAH 2.445 trillion.
Industrial production in Ukraine in September 2021 decreased by 0.7% compared to September 2020, while in August its growth was 0.6%, in July – 0.2%, in June – 1.1%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Real wages in Ukraine in September 2021 compared to September 2020 increased by 6.9%, and relative to August of this year – by 0.5%.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in September 2021 increased by 10% compared to September 2020. The total rental activity in Kyiv’s office real estate market in the first half of 2021 amounted to 43,000 square meters, which is 22% more than in the same period last year.
Ukraine since the beginning of this season and as of October 28 threshed 60.75 million tonnes of main grain and leguminous crops from a total area of 12.86 million hectares.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin