Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Ukraine’s agricultural exports in early September fell by 60% year-over-year

From September 1 to 9, Ukraine exported 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and products derived from them, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Friday.

“From September 1 to 9, 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported. As of today, this represents 40% of what we could have exported. We ended August at 33%. Our forecast remains unchanged—to reach 50% of the target for September–October,” Vysotsky said.

According to him, 380,000 metric tons of grains were exported (35% of demand), 94,000 metric tons of oilseeds (64%), 97,000 metric tons of oil (66%), and 60,000 metric tons of meal (33%).

Vysotsky noted that compared to 2025, exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products have decreased by 60%.

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Ukraine has begun harvesting sunflowers and soybeans for 2026 crop

Ukrainian farmers have begun harvesting late-season oilseeds, and as of September 8, 89.3 thousand metric tons of sunflower seeds have been harvested from the first 56 thousand hectares—representing 1% of the projected area—with an average yield of 15.9 centners per hectare.

A total of 79.9 thousand metric tons of soybeans have been harvested from 45.3 thousand hectares (3% of the forecast) at a yield of 17.6 centners per hectare, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
As of September 8, farmers across all regions had threshed 6.85 million hectares, or 59% of the projected area. The gross harvest of grain and legume crops reached 32.2 million metric tons, with an average yield of 47 ts/ha.

Farmers have nearly completed the wheat harvest and have fully finished harvesting barley and peas. Specifically, 24.91 million metric tons of wheat were harvested from an area of 5.04 million hectares (98% of the target) with an average yield of 49.4 centners per hectare.
The barley harvest is 100% complete across the entire area, or 1.48 million hectares. The gross harvest amounts to 6.4 million metric tons, with a yield of 43.4 tsentners per hectare.

The pea harvest is also complete—795.2 thousand metric tons were harvested from 298.2 thousand hectares, with a yield of 26.7 tsentners per hectare.

Millet yields totaled 34,000 metric tons, with 14,500 hectares (35% of the area) threshed at a yield of 23.4 centners per hectare. Buckwheat yields totaled 10,900 metric tons from 7,700 hectares (16% of the area) at a yield of 14.2 centners per hectare. The first 43.2 thousand metric tons of corn were harvested from 12.1 thousand hectares, with a yield of 35.9 centners per hectare.

Farmers in the southern and central regions lead in terms of gross grain harvest volumes.
In the Odesa region, a total of 4.82 million metric tons of grain was harvested from an area of 1.19 million hectares. Specifically, 3.22 million metric tons of wheat, 1.31 million metric tons of barley, and 284,900 metric tons of peas.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 2.69 million metric tons of grain were harvested from 650,600 hectares. This included 2.04 million metric tons of wheat, 574,600 metric tons of barley, and 37,000 metric tons of peas.
The Kirovohrad region harvested 2.42 million metric tons of grain from an area of 559,000 hectares. The harvest included 1.92 million metric tons of wheat, 412,500 metric tons of barley, and 82,000 metric tons of peas.

The highest yields were recorded in the Khmelnytskyi region—70.8 ts/ha, the Sumy region—59.7 ts/ha, and the Vinnytsia region—59.6 ts/ha.
The rapeseed harvest is complete, with a total volume of 3.8286 million metric tons.

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FAO has lowered its forecast for global grain production in 2026 to 2.98 bln metric tons

Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).

Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.

The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.

The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.

The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.

In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.

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Ukrainian wheat exports nearly doubled in early September

Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—at $185 and $175 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers in its weekly market review.

According to the broker, Ukraine exported approximately 612,700 metric tons of wheat in August. The top destinations were Spain (118,200 metric tons), Egypt (116,100 metric tons), and Algeria (78,100 metric tons). These three countries accounted for about 51% of August’s exports.

From September 1–3, Ukraine exported about 116,800 metric tons of wheat, or nearly 39,000 metric tons per day, compared to an average of about 20,000 metric tons per day in August. Destinations included Tunisia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Israel.

The price of corn also remained unchanged over the week: on a CPT Odessa basis, it stood at $185 per metric ton, and on an FCA Chop basis, at $225 per metric ton.

In August, Ukraine exported about 300,000 metric tons of corn. During the first three days of September, corn exports totaled about 69,200 metric tons. The main export destinations were Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands.

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Grain shipments to Danube ports nearly tripled in August

Rail shipments of grain to Danube ports in August 2026 nearly tripled compared to July—reaching 248.8 thousand metric tons, while shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by 94.9%—to 68.5 thousand metric tons, according to a weekly review by the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.

Overall, rail grain shipments to seaports, including domestic shipments to Izmail, totaled approximately 317,300 metric tons in August, compared to 1.440 million metric tons in July. According to the brokerage firm, there was a sharp shift in cargo flows from the Greater Odessa region to the Danube.
In August, 1.297 million metric tons of grain were transported by rail—34.7% less than in July and 53.9% less than in August 2025. The average daily load amounted to 39.2 thousand metric tons, which is 22.5% lower than in July and 55% lower than in August 2025.

Exports of grain and milled products totaled 672.2 thousand metric tons, down 58.5% month-over-month and approximately 74% year-over-year. A total of 113,000 metric tons of vegetable oil were transported—15.4% more than in July and 54.7% more than in August 2025. Transportation of oilcake and meal totaled 167.1 thousand metric tons, down 9.3% month-over-month and 7.4% year-over-year.

In August, 501.8 thousand metric tons were transported via land crossings, compared to 208.8 thousand metric tons in July—a 2.4-fold increase.
The average daily throughput of grain cars through the main western border crossings in August was 192.8 cars, compared to 71.3 cars in July. The highest average daily figure was on the Polish route—56.6 cars. Through Hungary, 49.4 cars were transported per day; through Romania, 45.5; and through Slovakia, 41.4 cars.

Unlike in July, the August flow was distributed much more evenly among the four corridors.
As of September 3, there were 8,221 railcars en route to border crossings, of which 1,346 were loaded with grain, compared to 9,273 and 1,414 railcars, respectively, at the end of August. During the first days of the month, the total backlog decreased by approximately 11%, while the grain backlog decreased by 5%.

In August, 325,000 metric tons of agricultural products were exported via road border crossings, compared to 289,200 metric tons in July—an increase of 12.4%. Compared to August 2025, the volume was 23.7% higher.

Nearly half of August’s road freight traffic was destined for Poland—150,100 metric tons, or 46.2%. Among the largest categories in August were poultry meat—30,200 metric tons, sunflower oil—24,800 metric tons, ethyl alcohol—23,100 metric tons, sugar—18,600 metric tons, fruits and nuts—16.9 thousand metric tons, and soybean meal—15 thousand metric tons.

During the first three days of September, 33 thousand metric tons were exported by road, or about 11 thousand metric tons per day, compared to an average of 10.5 thousand metric tons per day in August.

In August, Ukraine exported 2.146 million metric tons of agricultural products in UKT ZED groups 01–24, worth $1.280 billion. The grain segment accounted for 987,100 metric tons, or 46% of the total volume, in the final August statistics: 612,700 metric tons of wheat, 305,700 metric tons of corn, and 68,700 metric tons of barley were shipped. Rapeseed accounted for another 292,600 metric tons, or 13.6% of exports. The three main vegetable oils totaled 279,100 metric tons, while sunflower and soybean meal totaled 187,200 metric tons.

The largest physical volumes went to Germany—227.1 thousand metric tons, Turkey—203.8 thousand metric tons, Italy—188.1 thousand metric tons, Poland—179.3 thousand metric tons, and the Netherlands—171.7 thousand metric tons. Together, these five countries accounted for about 45% of August’s exports.
From September 1–3, Ukraine exported 331.4 thousand metric tons of agricultural products worth $167.7 million, or about 110.5 thousand metric tons per day.

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Global Grain Prices Rose 2.2% in August — FAO

Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).

According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.

Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”

Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.

Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.

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