Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 822.43 million metric tons, which is 3.13 million metric tons higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the September USDA report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in the crop outlook in Australia. The forecast for the country was raised by 3 million tonnes at once — from 28 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tonnes — to 36 million tonnes, and for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tonnes, to 26 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tonnes — to 15 million tonnes, and for Russia — by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes.
Despite the increase in production, the forecast for global wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tonnes — to 211.77 million tonnes.
USDA cut its estimates for Russia’s exports from 46 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes, Ukraine’s — from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as Kazakhstan’s. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The U.S. agency explained the deterioration in the outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports by weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
Global wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by approximately 3 million tonnes — to 276.29 million tonnes. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
According to Experts Club, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 31.8 million metric tons, despite a significant revision to the global corn harvest estimate.
According to the USDA’s September WASDE report, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports has also remained unchanged at 22 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons, of which 5.5 million metric tons will be used for feed.
At the same time, the U.S. agency raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks by 0.6 million metric tons—from 4.86 million metric tons in August to 5.46 million metric tons in September.
Opening stocks were also revised upward—from 2.25 million metric tons to 2.85 million metric tons. Corn imports are expected to be minimal—about 10,000 metric tons.
The situation on the global market is unfolding differently. The USDA has lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year by nearly 8 million metric tons—from 1,298.88 million metric tons to 1,290.95 million metric tons.
The forecast for global corn trade was reduced by a much smaller margin—from 210.48 million metric tons to 210.08 million metric tons—and the forecast for ending stocks was lowered from 274.66 million metric tons to 272.10 million metric tons.
The main decline in production is linked, in particular, to worsening forecasts for the United States, India, Kenya, and Russia. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were raised.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA September Report
From September 1 to 9, Ukraine exported 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and products derived from them, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Friday.
“From September 1 to 9, 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported. As of today, this represents 40% of what we could have exported. We ended August at 33%. Our forecast remains unchanged—to reach 50% of the target for September–October,” Vysotsky said.
According to him, 380,000 metric tons of grains were exported (35% of demand), 94,000 metric tons of oilseeds (64%), 97,000 metric tons of oil (66%), and 60,000 metric tons of meal (33%).
Vysotsky noted that compared to 2025, exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products have decreased by 60%.
Ukrainian farmers have begun harvesting late-season oilseeds, and as of September 8, 89.3 thousand metric tons of sunflower seeds have been harvested from the first 56 thousand hectares—representing 1% of the projected area—with an average yield of 15.9 centners per hectare.
A total of 79.9 thousand metric tons of soybeans have been harvested from 45.3 thousand hectares (3% of the forecast) at a yield of 17.6 centners per hectare, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
As of September 8, farmers across all regions had threshed 6.85 million hectares, or 59% of the projected area. The gross harvest of grain and legume crops reached 32.2 million metric tons, with an average yield of 47 ts/ha.
Farmers have nearly completed the wheat harvest and have fully finished harvesting barley and peas. Specifically, 24.91 million metric tons of wheat were harvested from an area of 5.04 million hectares (98% of the target) with an average yield of 49.4 centners per hectare.
The barley harvest is 100% complete across the entire area, or 1.48 million hectares. The gross harvest amounts to 6.4 million metric tons, with a yield of 43.4 tsentners per hectare.
The pea harvest is also complete—795.2 thousand metric tons were harvested from 298.2 thousand hectares, with a yield of 26.7 tsentners per hectare.
Millet yields totaled 34,000 metric tons, with 14,500 hectares (35% of the area) threshed at a yield of 23.4 centners per hectare. Buckwheat yields totaled 10,900 metric tons from 7,700 hectares (16% of the area) at a yield of 14.2 centners per hectare. The first 43.2 thousand metric tons of corn were harvested from 12.1 thousand hectares, with a yield of 35.9 centners per hectare.
Farmers in the southern and central regions lead in terms of gross grain harvest volumes.
In the Odesa region, a total of 4.82 million metric tons of grain was harvested from an area of 1.19 million hectares. Specifically, 3.22 million metric tons of wheat, 1.31 million metric tons of barley, and 284,900 metric tons of peas.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 2.69 million metric tons of grain were harvested from 650,600 hectares. This included 2.04 million metric tons of wheat, 574,600 metric tons of barley, and 37,000 metric tons of peas.
The Kirovohrad region harvested 2.42 million metric tons of grain from an area of 559,000 hectares. The harvest included 1.92 million metric tons of wheat, 412,500 metric tons of barley, and 82,000 metric tons of peas.
The highest yields were recorded in the Khmelnytskyi region—70.8 ts/ha, the Sumy region—59.7 ts/ha, and the Vinnytsia region—59.6 ts/ha.
The rapeseed harvest is complete, with a total volume of 3.8286 million metric tons.
Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.
The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.
The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.
The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.
In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—at $185 and $175 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers in its weekly market review.
According to the broker, Ukraine exported approximately 612,700 metric tons of wheat in August. The top destinations were Spain (118,200 metric tons), Egypt (116,100 metric tons), and Algeria (78,100 metric tons). These three countries accounted for about 51% of August’s exports.
From September 1–3, Ukraine exported about 116,800 metric tons of wheat, or nearly 39,000 metric tons per day, compared to an average of about 20,000 metric tons per day in August. Destinations included Tunisia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Israel.
The price of corn also remained unchanged over the week: on a CPT Odessa basis, it stood at $185 per metric ton, and on an FCA Chop basis, at $225 per metric ton.
In August, Ukraine exported about 300,000 metric tons of corn. During the first three days of September, corn exports totaled about 69,200 metric tons. The main export destinations were Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands.
