In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
In January 2026, Ukraine exported 5.0 million tons of agricultural products, which is 0.8% less than in the previous month, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
According to analysts, in the first month of the year, there was an increase in exports only in the grain segment, while all other types of products saw a decline. Corn remains the main export item at present.
According to experts, in the structure of agribusiness exports in January 2026, grain crops increased by 13% compared to the previous month and amounted to 3.4 million tons (corn – 83%, wheat – 16%), oilseeds decreased by 32% to 351.7 thousand tons (soybeans – 63%, rapeseed – 35%, and sunflower – 1%), vegetable oils – by 6% to 479.7 thousand tons (sunflower oil – 82%, rapeseed oil – 10%, and soybean oil – 7%), oilcake after extraction of vegetable oils decreased by 32% to 411.0 thousand tons (sunflower – 73%, soybean – 27%), other types of agricultural products decreased by 15% to 349.9 thousand tons.
Elevator equipment manufacturer KMZ Industries (Karlivsky Machine Building Plant, Poltava region) has signed an agreement to manufacture silos and transport equipment for an agricultural enterprise in Chernihiv region, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
According to the report, the customer, which specializes in corn cultivation and dairy farming, plans to increase its grain storage capacity for more flexible inventory management.
Under the agreement, KMZ Industries will manufacture three flat-bottom silos with a total capacity of 21,950 cubic meters, an operational silo for truck loading with a volume of 90 cubic meters, and transport equipment (bucket elevators and chain conveyors) with a capacity of 50 and 100 tons/hour.
To implement the project, the farm plans to take advantage of a state program that provides 25% compensation for the cost of domestically produced agricultural machinery and equipment.
Vladislav Perehodko, head of the regional representative office of KMZ Industries, noted that this case illustrates the trend of agricultural producers investing in the expansion of existing elevator sites with a focus on energy efficiency.
KMZ Industries is the largest manufacturer of elevator equipment in Ukraine and produces a full range of products, including silos, grain dryers, transport equipment, and separators, as well as providing automation and installation services.
According to the company, it has built more than 5,000 facilities. KMZ Industries silos with a total volume of more than 12.5 million cubic meters are in operation.
Albania’s dependence on grain imports has increased in 2025 amid a decline in domestic production and an increase in abandoned farmland, with Serbia becoming the main supplier of grain, the Serbian Economist reports, according to Pamfleti website.
Albania imported more than 374,000 tons of grain in 2025, almost 40,000 tons more than in 2024, with wheat and corn being the main imports.
Agro-economist Zef Gjeta linked the increase in imports to the lack of real reforms and public funding of the agro-sector, emphasizing that without support for farmers, the country loses its production potential and becomes more dependent on external supplies.
The structure of supplies has changed – Serbia has become the first exporter of grain to Albania, while previously significant volumes came from Russia and Romania. At the same time, procurement costs, according to the source’s assessment, remained close to 2024 levels due to shorter logistics and the strengthening of Albania’s national currency, despite the increase in physical volumes.
Albania also exported 248 tons of grain worth about 28 million lek, almost double the amount from a year earlier, but these volumes remain small. The country’s farmland area is estimated at about 700,000 hectares, with the area under cereal crops shrinking and the area of abandoned land growing, experts warned.
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Kernel, one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, processed 995,000 tons of oilseeds in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (FY, October-December 2025), which is 2% more than in the same period last year and 78% more than in the previous quarter, the agricultural holding reported in its quarterly report.
It specified that sunflower seeds accounted for 85% of the total volume, with the remainder being soybeans, which were processed to partially offset the impact of limited availability of sunflower seeds on the domestic market.
According to the agricultural holding, oilseed processing volumes in July-December 2025 decreased by 6% compared to the same period last year, to 1.6 million tons, which is a result of a decrease in processing volumes under tolling agreements compared to the corresponding figure a year ago.
Sales of Kernel edible oil in the second quarter of 2026 amounted to 411 thousand tons, which is at the level of the same period last year, but the total figure for the first half of the year exceeded the result for the same period a year ago by 30% due to higher oilseed processing volumes. Bottled sunflower oil accounted for 17 thousand tons of total sales.
Silos received 2.3 million tons in the second quarter of 2026 FY, reaching 3.5 million tons in the first six months of 2026 FY.
“The 35% increase on an annualized basis was supported by higher overall grain availability due to increased corn yields in the group’s own agricultural segment, as well as increased grain consumption from third-party suppliers,” the agricultural holding explained.
Kernel’s grain exports reached 1.5 million tons in the second quarter of FY 2026, up 21% from the previous quarter. On an annualized basis, volumes increased by 10%, mainly reflecting the low comparative base of the previous year. The agricultural holding added that overall export rates remained limited due to delays in the harvesting campaign and continued slow sales to farmers.
The throughput capacity of Kernel’s export terminal in the second quarter of 2026 FY was 2.5 million tons, up 35% compared to the previous quarter. Grain crops accounted for 71% of total shipments, edible oils for 16%, and vegetable meal for the rest.
“At the same time, over the six months, the throughput capacity of the terminals decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year amid intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Danube in the Odesa region, which led to prolonged disturbances and disruptions in the operation of the group’s terminals,” the agricultural holding stated.
Kernel recalled that in October-December 2025, Russian drones twice damaged the group’s port infrastructure in the Odesa region, including vegetable oil storage tanks and a number of production facilities. Preliminary estimates indicate a loss of approximately 500 tons of sunflower oil.
Before the war, Kernel was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (about 7% of global production) and its exporter (about 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. It is also involved in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
The elevators of the Zakhidny Bug group of companies received over 320,000 tons of grain in 2025, according to a Facebook post by the agricultural holding’s press service.
According to the report, the Zakhidny Bug seed plant produced over 13,000 tons of seeds in 2025.
In total, the group’s fields harvested 82,700 tons of winter wheat, 77,500 tons of corn, 26,700 tons of barley, 70,000 tons of soybeans, and 22,300 tons of rapeseed in 2025. The company also harvested hard wheat varieties: 18,200 tons of winter wheat and 3,450 tons of spring wheat.
PP “Zakhidny Bug” was founded in 2003 and specializes in growing grain and industrial crops. It owns a land bank of 65,000 hectares in the Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, and Volyn regions.
The company is building Ukraine’s first mill to process durum wheat, as well as a pasta factory. The projected capacity of the first stage of the mill is 80 tons per day for durum wheat and 150 tons per day for soft wheat varieties. The second stage will increase the capacity by another 200 tons for durum wheat and 300 tons for soft varieties. The total investment in the project is UAH 1 billion.
The beneficiaries of the enterprise are Oksana Drul (30%), Valery Ovcharuk (30%), and Yuriy Gladun (30%).
