Ukraine’s export logistics entered 2026 in a new configuration, where Ukrzaliznytsia’s transition to a fixed tariff for grain car rental reduced cost volatility, according to the information and analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.
According to analysts, the main cargo flows are currently concentrated in the direction of the ports of Greater Odessa, where terminal utilization has stabilized at 50%. In early February, the number of grain cars heading for ports exceeded 9,000 units, which is associated with the active fulfillment of contracts and the need for working capital for farmers before spring field work.
“The dynamics of grain car traffic demonstrates continued pressure on infrastructure capacity. This situation indicates a resumption of activity by exporters, but at the same time leaves minimal margin for the logistics system,” experts noted.
The agency noted a shift in the competitive balance between modes of transport: railways retain a key role in mass shipments, while road transport is increasing its share due to faster turnover.
“This model of coexistence will become a long-term reality for Ukrainian exports,” UkrAgroConsult predicts.
EXPORTS, GRAIN, LOGISTICS, RAILWAYS, ROAD TRANSPORT, TARIFFS, УЗ
Agroholding Agrotrade exported over 333,000 tons of grains and oilseeds in 2025, according to the company’s press service on Facebook.
According to the report, 187,000 tons were produced in-house, while another 146,000 tons were supplied by third-party producers. The main export destinations remained Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and other countries in the Mediterranean region.
“The 2025 season has once again confirmed that flexibility and reputation are crucial in conditions of increased risk. Despite the difficult security situation, logistical constraints, and downtime, the Agrotrade Group’s export program was carried out without disruption throughout the year. Even when infrastructure comes to a standstill and risks for shipowners increase, our task is to fulfill our commitments. This is what allows us to maintain the trust of our international partners and continue our work,” said Andriy But, director of the agroholding’s foreign economic activity department.
Corn and wheat accounted for the bulk of exports. At the same time, there was a decline in soybean exports due to changes in the regulatory environment and the reorientation of part of the market toward domestic processing.
The agricultural holding also predicts that low export rates from Ukraine in the current season may lead to the formation of significant transitional stocks, which will affect the prices of the future harvest.
The Agrotrade Group of Companies is a vertically integrated holding company covering the entire agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage, and trade in agricultural products). It cultivates over 70,000 hectares of land. Its core crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a one-time storage capacity of 570,000 tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn, sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region).
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
In January 2026, Ukraine exported 5.0 million tons of agricultural products, which is 0.8% less than in the previous month, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
According to analysts, in the first month of the year, there was an increase in exports only in the grain segment, while all other types of products saw a decline. Corn remains the main export item at present.
According to experts, in the structure of agribusiness exports in January 2026, grain crops increased by 13% compared to the previous month and amounted to 3.4 million tons (corn – 83%, wheat – 16%), oilseeds decreased by 32% to 351.7 thousand tons (soybeans – 63%, rapeseed – 35%, and sunflower – 1%), vegetable oils – by 6% to 479.7 thousand tons (sunflower oil – 82%, rapeseed oil – 10%, and soybean oil – 7%), oilcake after extraction of vegetable oils decreased by 32% to 411.0 thousand tons (sunflower – 73%, soybean – 27%), other types of agricultural products decreased by 15% to 349.9 thousand tons.
Elevator equipment manufacturer KMZ Industries (Karlivsky Machine Building Plant, Poltava region) has signed an agreement to manufacture silos and transport equipment for an agricultural enterprise in Chernihiv region, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
According to the report, the customer, which specializes in corn cultivation and dairy farming, plans to increase its grain storage capacity for more flexible inventory management.
Under the agreement, KMZ Industries will manufacture three flat-bottom silos with a total capacity of 21,950 cubic meters, an operational silo for truck loading with a volume of 90 cubic meters, and transport equipment (bucket elevators and chain conveyors) with a capacity of 50 and 100 tons/hour.
To implement the project, the farm plans to take advantage of a state program that provides 25% compensation for the cost of domestically produced agricultural machinery and equipment.
Vladislav Perehodko, head of the regional representative office of KMZ Industries, noted that this case illustrates the trend of agricultural producers investing in the expansion of existing elevator sites with a focus on energy efficiency.
KMZ Industries is the largest manufacturer of elevator equipment in Ukraine and produces a full range of products, including silos, grain dryers, transport equipment, and separators, as well as providing automation and installation services.
According to the company, it has built more than 5,000 facilities. KMZ Industries silos with a total volume of more than 12.5 million cubic meters are in operation.
Albania’s dependence on grain imports has increased in 2025 amid a decline in domestic production and an increase in abandoned farmland, with Serbia becoming the main supplier of grain, the Serbian Economist reports, according to Pamfleti website.
Albania imported more than 374,000 tons of grain in 2025, almost 40,000 tons more than in 2024, with wheat and corn being the main imports.
Agro-economist Zef Gjeta linked the increase in imports to the lack of real reforms and public funding of the agro-sector, emphasizing that without support for farmers, the country loses its production potential and becomes more dependent on external supplies.
The structure of supplies has changed – Serbia has become the first exporter of grain to Albania, while previously significant volumes came from Russia and Romania. At the same time, procurement costs, according to the source’s assessment, remained close to 2024 levels due to shorter logistics and the strengthening of Albania’s national currency, despite the increase in physical volumes.
Albania also exported 248 tons of grain worth about 28 million lek, almost double the amount from a year earlier, but these volumes remain small. The country’s farmland area is estimated at about 700,000 hectares, with the area under cereal crops shrinking and the area of abandoned land growing, experts warned.
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