As of August 12, 2026, Ukraine had exported, since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), 2.952 million metric tons of grains and legumes, which is 4.8% more than it exported by the same date last year, when the figure stood at 2.818 million metric tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service (SCS), total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 2.955 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago—an increase of 4.6%.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 18.3%—to 1.239 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively. Specifically, 175,000 metric tons of wheat were exported in August of this year, compared to 759,000 metric tons a year ago.
Barley exports fell by 28.1%, to 333 thousand metric tons from 463 thousand metric tons; specifically, 37 thousand metric tons of this product were shipped abroad in August, compared to 206 thousand metric tons in August 2025.
Corn exports as of the reporting date for the season increased by 66.4%, to 1.376 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year ago; in August, 68,000 metric tons of corn were shipped to other countries, compared to 184,000 metric tons in August of last year.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
Flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 54.1% to 2,800 metric tons. As of the same date last marketing year, they stood at 6.1 thousand metric tons. In grain equivalent, flour exports totaled 3.7 thousand metric tons, compared to 8.1 thousand metric tons a year earlier.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
Railway grain shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa during the first five days of August fell by 84.3% compared to the same period in July—to 40.8 thousand metric tons, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
According to its data, the total volume of agricultural exports from Ukraine for August 1–6 amounted to 312,900 metric tons, compared to 784,500 metric tons for the same period in July, a decrease of 60.1%. At the same time, export revenue decreased by 38.4%—to $201.5 million from $326.9 million.
The sharpest decline was seen in grains: wheat exports for the first six days of August totaled 93.2 thousand metric tons, compared to 294.9 thousand metric tons in early July, while corn exports totaled 33.5 thousand metric tons, compared to 293.7 thousand metric tons, respectively.
At the same time, a seasonal flow of rapeseed totaling 27,900 metric tons appeared in the structure of August exports, while shipments of soybean meal rose to 25,700 metric tons from 18,600 metric tons during the corresponding period in July. Sunflower oil exports fell to 30.7 thousand metric tons from 52.1 thousand metric tons.
During the first five days of August, a total of 182 thousand metric tons of grain and milled products were transported by rail, which is 44.1% less than during the same period in July.
“Data from Ukrainian Railways (UZ) for the first five days of the month show a sharp decline in rail grain shipments to seaports, while land-based rail crossings and road exports are operating at a relatively higher level,” the report states.
As for overland logistics channels, from August 1–6, 59,600 metric tons of agricultural products were exported through road border crossings, compared to 53,600 metric tons during the same period in July (an increase of 11.3%).
According to Spike Brokers, the average daily throughput of grain and meal shipments through border crossings during the first five days of August was 142 railcars, compared to 139 railcars in July.
Volumes increased the most on the Romanian route—to 31.2 railcars per day, or 29.3 railcars more than in July. Poland increased its shipments to 27.4 railcars per day (+13.8). In contrast, Hungary reduced this figure to 23 railcars per day (-15.9), and Slovakia to 14.2 railcars per day (-2.7). The backlog of grain railcars heading toward the border rose from 369 to 521 railcars, or by 41.2%.
“In contrast to the slower overall pace of agricultural exports, the road transport channel began August with greater activity than in July. However, its absolute capacity remains insufficient to compensate for the reduction in large-tonnage grain flows through seaports,” the report states.
An increase in activity was also recorded on the Danube route: the number of grain cars in transit rose to 1,296 (+155), and the average daily unloading rate increased to 157 cars (+106).
Over 1.4 million metric tons of grain have already been harvested in Vinnytsia Oblast, according to Natalia Zabolotna, head of the regional military administration.
“The harvest campaign in the region is ongoing. Farmers have already harvested 246,000 hectares of early grain and legume crops—that’s 60% of the planned area. The average yield is 59.6 centners per hectare—1.9 centners per hectare more than during the same period last year,” she wrote on Telegram on Saturday.
According to the Regional State Administration, winter wheat currently accounts for the largest portion of the harvest at 1.2 million metric tons. Its average yield is also higher than last year’s. The harvest of winter barley and peas has already been completed. The harvest of spring barley, spring wheat, and rye is in full swing. At the same time, farmers are finishing the harvest of winter rapeseed. 80% of the area has already been threshed.
As of August 4, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 4.01 million hectares—or 34% of the projected area—and harvested 17.59 million metric tons of grain from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Wheat was harvested from 2,736.5 thousand hectares (53% of the area), yielding 12.51 million metric tons with an average yield of 45.7 centners per hectare.
Barley was harvested from 1,015.0 thousand hectares (68%), yielding 4.42 million metric tons at a yield of 43.5 centners per hectare.
Peas: 261,700 hectares (88%) have been harvested, yielding 669,500 metric tons at a yield of 25.6 centners per hectare.
The Odesa region currently leads in terms of the volume of early grain and legume crops harvested, with 3.593 million metric tons harvested from an area of 857 thousand hectares (wheat—2.108 million metric tons, barley—1.252 million metric tons, peas – 232,5 thousand metric tons).
In the Mykolaiv region, 2.125 million metric tons have been harvested from an area of 606,2 thousand hectares (wheat – 1.440 million metric tons, barley – 577,9 thousand metric tons, peas – 106,8 thousand metric tons).
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 1.911 million metric tons were harvested from an area of 475,400 hectares (wheat – 1.421 million metric tons, barley – 455,600 metric tons, peas – 34,000 metric tons).
Winter rapeseed has already been harvested from 910,600 hectares (68% of the total area), yielding 2.39 million metric tons.
