Consulting agency UkrAgroConsult forecasts a 5.7% decline in sunflower harvest in the 2025 season to 13.3 million tons from 14.1 million tons in the previous forecast due to drought in southern and eastern Ukraine, the agency’s press service reported.
“Crop losses are mainly observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly affected crops. In contrast, the situation is more favorable in the northern and western regions, where rains have been regular. Sunflower yields are expected to increase during harvesting in the northwestern belt, as was the case with wheat and barley,” the agency said.
Analysts added that market estimates of the sunflower harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 million tons. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult sticks to the upper end of the estimate due to the expansion of acreage in the west and north after the start of the war. However, seed quality is a concern due to diseases caused by rains during harvesting in these regions.
UkrAgroConsult has more optimistic forecasts for corn.
“The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and crops in the south account for a small share. This year’s pollination and grain filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to last year, and periodic rains contributed to crop development,” experts said.
Market estimates of the corn harvest range from 28 million tons to 35 million tons, but at the end of July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons, or 6.6%, which is one of the highest figures on the market.
UkrAgroConsult’s wheat harvest forecast remains stable at 22 million tons. As of August 7, almost 15 million tons had been harvested from 74% of the planted area. The remaining 26% is in regions with the highest yields, which gives grounds for optimism, the agency concluded.
In 2025, the apple harvest in Ukraine will decrease by 7.6% compared to last year, to about 1 million tons, according to the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) in its annual report Prognosfruit 2025.
The decline is primarily due to spring frosts that affected a number of European countries. In Europe, the most serious decline is expected in Greece (-51.5%), Romania (-39.5%), and Serbia (-26.7%).
At the same time, production is expected to increase in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Belgium, which will partially offset the decline in the affected countries.
According to WAPA estimates, total apple production in the European Union in 2025 will amount to 10.46 million tons, which is 7.5% below the average level of recent years but almost at the level of 2024. Among the varieties, the largest declines are expected for Red Delicious (-19.2%) and Idared (-8.8%), while Golden Delicious will decline by only 0.9% and Gala will maintain last year’s volumes.
Soybean exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) may decrease by more than a third and amount to about 2.7 million tons due to the expected reduction in crop production, the possible impact of export duties, and the continued attractiveness of processing, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Experts recalled that Ukraine exported 3.97 million tons of soybeans during September-July 2024-2025 MY, which is 28% more than in the same period last year and set a new record for the season.
“The significant increase in export rates was achieved primarily thanks to the record harvest of this crop in the country in 2024, as well as attractive prices and geographical proximity to key global importers,” analysts explained.
At the same time, in their opinion, the record pace of soybean shipments in the summer may be stimulated by the expected introduction of a 10% duty on soybeans from September 2025, if the Ukrainian president signs the relevant bill.
Among the top buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in the current season, experts named Turkey (968,600 tons, up 39% from the previous season), Egypt (673,000 tons, down 31%), and the Netherlands (546,000 tons, up 2.7 times).
“In total, in the 2024/25 season, soybean exports from Ukraine could reach about 4.1-4.2 million tons (+26%), which could be a new record for the industry,” APK-Inform concluded.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the 2025 vegetable harvest by 11.5% to 7.6 million tons, fruit and berry harvest by 11.1% to 1.8 million tons, and potato harvest by 3.4% to 19.4 million tons.
“Weather conditions in the spring of 2025 were unfavorable for harvests. Spring frosts covered a significant part of the country, causing particular damage to winter crops, fruit and berries, and vegetables,” the National Bank said in its updated Inflation Report published this week.
At the same time, compared to last year’s harvest, the National Bank estimates that this year’s vegetable harvest will be 11.5% higher, or 0.8 million tons, and potato harvest will be 10.7% higher, or 1.9 million tons.
However, the situation with fruits and berries is worse, and their harvest will be 12.4%, or 0.2 million tons, less than last year.
The National Bank also lowered its forecasts for vegetable crops in 2026 by 9.1% compared to the previous April Inflation Report, to 8.0 million tons, and for fruit and berries by 4.0%, to 1.9 million tons.
At the same time, the NBU slightly improved its expectations for next year’s potato harvest by 0.7% to 20.0 million tons.
Agroholding Agrotrade has already threshed over 2,500 hectares, which is 14% of the total plan for early crops, with the largest areas processed in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, the agroholding’s press service reported on Facebook.
Agrotrade reminded that in the 2025 season, winter wheat accounts for 85% of the harvest structure, and winter rapeseed accounts for 15%.
“In the Kharkiv region, winter wheat yields have been reduced due to frosts, but the Sumy and Chernihiv regions are gradually evening out the overall picture. We started harvesting on drier plots and expect higher yields on later varieties. Overall, we expect to meet the plan with a slight overrun. Winter rapeseed yields average about 3.5 tons per hectare — despite the weather, the results are in line with expectations,” said Oleksandr Ovsyanyk, director of the agro-industrial department at Agrotrade.
According to him, the best results are in Chernihiv region, where rapeseed yields are 111% of the plan, and in Kharkiv region, where winter wheat yields in some fields are over 5.4 tons/ha, so the plan is being met at 106%.
The Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding company covering the entire agricultural cycle (production, processing, storage, and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70,000 hectares of land in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions. Its main crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a total storage capacity of 570,000 tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn, sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand, Agroseeds.
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
Sunflower production in Ukraine in 2025 will not exceed 13.6-13.7 million tons, which is only 7% higher than in 2024, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Analysts noted that weather conditions continue to reduce the yield potential of sunflower in Ukraine, particularly in the south and east of the country, where up to 50% of the total area under this oilseed crop is concentrated. Cool weather in the spring and critically low soil moisture reserves in these regions, combined with insufficient rainfall, have created unfavorable conditions for the development of oilseed crops.
According to their information, a number of farmers report that crops are in very poor condition: uneven plant growth in the field, delayed vegetation, small heads, as a result of which decisions are being made to disc these fields and prepare for winter sowing. In a number of regions, crops suffered from high temperatures in July, and hail was also reported locally.
Experts noted that crop losses in the south and east may be offset by expected better sunflower yields in the center, as well as in the west and north, where temperatures and precipitation were more favorable.
They are convinced that a significant increase in the cost of sunflower seeds in the new season should not be expected.
“First, many factories are changing their operating strategies to avoid losses and negative margins, as in the 2024/2025 season. Second, the low cost of sunflower oil, whose trade slowed in the 2024/2025 season due to lower production. Thirdly, plants will now have an advantage in the form of export duties on soybeans and rapeseed, which may contribute to an increase in the supply of oilseeds on the domestic market,” APK-Inform concluded.
