The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its forecast for the vegetable harvest in 2026 from 8 million to 7 million tonnes, which is 12.5% below the previous estimate.
As noted in a report by the Experts Club information and analytical center, based on the NBU’s October Inflation Report published on November 6, 2026, lower potato and vegetable harvests negatively affected agricultural performance indicators.
Compared with 2025, when Ukraine harvested 8.2 million tonnes of vegetables, the projected decline in production amounts to 1.2 million tonnes, or 14.6%.
For comparison, the gross vegetable harvest amounted to 6.8 million tonnes in 2024 and 9.9 million tonnes in the pre-war year of 2021.
Thus, expected production in 2026 remains 2.9 million tonnes, or 29.3%, below the pre-war level.
At the same time, the NBU’s updated forecast for 2027 also envisages lower production volumes than previously expected.
In particular, the vegetable harvest forecast for next year has been reduced from 8.1 million to 7.4 million tonnes, or by 8.6%.
Compared with 2026, this would mean a possible increase in production of 400,000 tonnes, although the harvest volume would still remain significantly below the 2021 level.
A reduction in vegetable production may create additional risks for the food market, particularly given the highly seasonal nature of supplies and the need for long-term storage of some products.
At the same time, the impact on prices of individual types of vegetables may vary significantly depending on the harvest of a particular crop, its quality, the availability of stocks, and import volumes.
According to the State Statistics Service, vegetable prices fell by 2.3% in September 2026 compared with August, demonstrating the impact of a seasonal increase in supply on consumer prices.
For Ukrainian vegetable producers, the main areas for improving resilience remain the development of irrigation, modernization of vegetable storage facilities, expansion of greenhouse production, and processing.
At the same time, the final results of the 2026 vegetable season will depend on the outcomes of harvesting and the revision of official agricultural statistics.
agricultural sector, EXPERTS CLUB, HARVEST, PRODUCTION, UKRAINE, VEGETABLES
Ukrainian farmers have completed the wheat harvest, yielding 26.26 million metric tons of grain from an area of 5.12 million hectares, which is 15.3% higher than the 2025 harvest, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported on November 3.
The average wheat yield in 2026 was 51.3 centners per hectare, compared to 45.1 centners per hectare last year, an increase of 13.7%.
At the same time, the area harvested for wheat increased by only 1.4%, or approximately 70,700 hectares. Thus, the main factor behind the increase in gross production was higher yields.
Barley also showed positive growth. Its gross harvest reached 6.60 million metric tons from an area of 1.48 million hectares, which is approximately 22.8% more than the figure at the end of October last year.
The average barley yield increased from 39.7 to 44.5 centners per hectare. At the same time, the area under cultivation expanded by approximately 9.8%.
The pea harvest has also been completed. According to the ministry, 834,100 metric tons were harvested from 302,200 hectares, with an average yield of 27.6 centners per hectare.
Compared to 2025, the gross harvest of peas increased by 26.2%, and the yield increased by approximately 13%.
In total, the harvest of the three main early grain and legume crops—wheat, barley, and peas—amounted to about 33.69 million metric tons.
The increase in yields for these crops is important for securing the domestic food market, supporting the flour milling and animal feed industries, and building Ukraine’s export reserves.
At the same time, wheat remains Ukraine’s largest grain crop in terms of gross volume already harvested in 2026, although the ongoing corn harvest may alter the ratio between crops.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, data as of November 3, 2026; official statistics on the 2025 harvest.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 10.78 million metric tons of corn from 1.72 million hectares, representing 37.5% of the projected area, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
According to the ministry, the average corn yield reached 62.8 centners per hectare. At the same stage of last year’s harvest campaign, based on preliminary data as of October 31, 2025, it stood at 61.5 centners per hectare.
Thus, the corn yield increased by approximately 2.1%.
At the same time, the pace of the harvest remains slower than last year. By the end of October 2025, corn had been harvested from 40% of the planted area, whereas as of November 3 of this year, only 37.5% had been harvested.
Over the past week, farmers increased the gross corn harvest by approximately 2.9 million metric tons. As of October 27, 7.89 million metric tons had been harvested, while by early November, this figure had risen to 10.78 million metric tons.
The weekly increase in the gross harvest was about 36.6%.
At the same time, more than 2.86 million hectares of corn, or 62.5% of the projected area, remain unharvested.
Further results of this crop’s harvest will have a decisive impact on Ukraine’s total grain harvest in 2026, as the harvests of wheat, barley, and peas have already been completed.
Corn remains one of Ukraine’s main export grain crops. It is used in the production of compound feed, in the food industry, and as a raw material for industrial processing.
As of November 3, the gross harvest of grain and legume crops in Ukraine stood at 44.62 million metric tons, or 75.1% of the projected area.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, report dated November 3, 2026; Ministry of Economy, harvest results as of October 31, 2025.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 10.78 million tonnes of corn from an area of 1.72 million hectares, representing 37.5% of the projected area, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported.
According to the ministry, the average corn yield reached 62.8 centners per hectare. At a comparable stage of last year’s harvesting campaign, according to preliminary data as of October 31, 2025, it stood at 61.5 centners per hectare.
Thus, corn yields increased by approximately 2.1%.
At the same time, the pace of harvesting remains slower than last year. By the end of October 2025, corn had been harvested from 40% of the area, whereas as of November 3 this year, only 37.5% had been harvested.
Over the past week, farmers increased the gross corn harvest by approximately 2.9 million tonnes. As of October 27, 7.89 million tonnes had been harvested, while by the beginning of November this figure had risen to 10.78 million tonnes.
The weekly increase in the gross harvest amounted to approximately 36.6%.
Meanwhile, more than 2.86 million hectares of corn, or 62.5% of the projected area, remain unharvested.
The subsequent results of harvesting this crop will have a decisive impact on Ukraine’s total grain harvest in 2026, as the harvesting of wheat, barley and peas has already been completed.
Corn remains one of Ukraine’s main export grain crops. It is used in compound feed production, the food industry and as a raw material for industrial processing.
The gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine as of November 3 amounted to 44.62 million tonnes, with harvesting completed on 75.1% of the projected area.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, report dated November 3, 2026; Ministry of Economy, harvest results as of October 31, 2025.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 5.07 million tonnes of sugar beets from an area of 102,200 hectares, which is 25.4% less than the preliminary figure recorded on October 31, 2025, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported.
According to the ministry, by the beginning of November, sugar beet harvesting had been completed on 59.8% of the projected area.
For comparison, as of October 31, 2025, 6.79 million tonnes of root crops had been harvested from 130,000 hectares, or 66% of the area projected at that time.
Thus, the current gross sugar beet harvest is approximately 1.73 million tonnes lower than last year’s figure.
One reason for the lower production volumes is the smaller harvested area. At the beginning of November this year, it stood at 102,200 hectares compared with 130,000 hectares a year earlier, a decline of 21.4%.
Meanwhile, the average sugar beet yield in 2026 stands at 496.1 centners per hectare, compared with 522.6 centners per hectare according to comparable preliminary data for 2025.
The decline in yield is approximately 5.1%.
According to current figures, around 68,700 hectares, or 40.2% of the projected area, remain to be harvested before the sugar beet harvesting campaign is completed.
Sugar beets are the main raw material for Ukraine’s sugar industry. Their production volumes directly affect the capacity utilization of sugar factories, processing costs and the formation of sugar supply in the domestic market.
At the same time, the current decline in the gross harvest does not mean a corresponding decrease in finished sugar production, as its volumes also depend on the sugar content of the root crops, processing efficiency and the completion of the season.
The final results of sugar beet production in 2026 will become known after the harvesting campaign is completed.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 60.6 thousand metric tons of buckwheat, which is 26.5% less than the corresponding preliminary figure from late October 2025. At the same time, the gross millet harvest increased by 46.2%, to 89,900 metric tons, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
According to the ministry, buckwheat has been threshed on an area of 46,600 hectares, or 95.9% of the projected area. The average yield is 13.0 centners per hectare.
For comparison, as of October 31, 2025, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 82.5 thousand metric tons of buckwheat.
Thus, the current production volume of this crop is approximately 21.9 thousand metric tons lower.
The 2026 millet harvest was conducted on an area of 38.8 thousand hectares, representing 94.9% of the projected area. The average yield reached 23.2 centners per hectare.
A total of 89.9 thousand metric tons of millet were harvested, compared to 61.5 thousand metric tons according to preliminary data as of October 31, 2025.
Thus, millet production exceeds last year’s figure by 28.4 thousand metric tons.
Buckwheat and millet are among the main cereal crops used for food production in Ukraine’s domestic market.
Buckwheat serves as the raw material for buckwheat groats, while millet is used primarily for the production of millet groats, as well as in the feed industry.
The decline in the buckwheat harvest may affect the supply balance for grain processing enterprises; however, the actual market situation will also depend on carryover stocks, imports, and consumer demand.
At the same time, the increase in millet production creates the conditions for a rise in its supply on the domestic market.
According to the ministry, the harvest campaign for both crops is nearing completion, so further changes in the gross harvest are expected to be relatively minor.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, press release dated November 3, 2026.
