According to Serbian Economist, the Hungarian opposition’s victory in the parliamentary elections and the upcoming change of government in Budapest have added uncertainty to the deal regarding the exit of Russian shareholders from NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije)—the company that operates Serbia’s only oil refinery in Pančevo and, according to estimates, supplies about 80% of the country’s fuel needs.
This refers to negotiations regarding the acquisition by Hungary’s MOL of a 56.15% stake in NIS, which is owned by Gazprom entities (44.9% by Gazprom Neft and 11.3% by Gazprom). In January, MOL announced the signing of a Heads of Agreement regarding this deal, as well as that it is considering the participation of ADNOC (UAE) as a minority partner.
A key factor is the deadlines set by the U.S. OFAC. In March, MOL reported that it had received an extension from OFAC on its license to negotiate until May 22, 2026. At the same time, MOL is seeking extensions of specific permits allowing it to continue operations and import raw materials during the negotiations.
The issue of price remains sensitive: the terms of the deal have not been officially disclosed. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić previously mentioned a range of up to €1 billion for the 56.15% stake, while a number of media outlets and analytical publications cited higher estimates.
Why the Hungarian elections have become a risk factor
The deal itself is corporate in nature and requires regulatory approvals, specifically from OFAC and Serbia. However, the change in government in Hungary affects the political backdrop and the pace of decision-making. The new leader, Péter Magyar, has publicly stated his intention to form a government quickly (specifically citing May 5 as the start date), meaning just a few weeks before the May 22 deadline. In this scenario, any additional government-level reviews, disputes over the transparency of terms, or simply the restructuring of interagency coordination could cause delays.
The most likely baseline scenario is that the parties will try to meet the deadline or request an additional license extension from OFAC if they are close to the final closing. Market participants have already seen extensions in this situation.
The negative scenario is a protracted negotiation process without a clear resolution. In that case, the risks for NIS become not a legal abstraction but a matter of supply stability: the U.S. sanctions regime is specifically aimed at the exit of Russian majority owners, and any disruptions with licenses complicate the logistics and financing of raw material procurement and operations.
For Belgrade, this turns the issue into one of energy security. Serbian authorities have previously signaled their interest in increasing the state’s stake in NIS, and if the situation worsens, tougher decisions regarding the ownership structure may be necessary to remove the company from under sanctions pressure and prevent a shock to the fuel market.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2628
According to the results of the April 12 parliamentary elections, the Tisza Party, led by Péter Mátyás, has secured 138 seats in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament, giving it a constitutional majority, according to international media and regional sources.
The previously ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition has secured 55 seats, while Mi Hazánk has become the third-largest force with 6 seats. Thus, the new parliament effectively consists of three parliamentary groups, while a number of smaller parties failed to clear the electoral threshold.
A constitutional majority in Hungary traditionally means the ability to pass decisions requiring 2-3-thirds of the deputies’ votes, including amendments to fundamental laws. In this configuration, Tisza formally does not need coalition partners to form a government.
Mátyás’s campaign was built around the themes of changing the political model, fighting corruption, and restoring relations with the EU. In public speeches, he used phrases such as “Ennek a rendszernek vége van” (“This system is over”), and also spoke of a “regime change” and returning the country to a more pro-European trajectory. Reuters reports that among the stated priorities are strengthening the rule of law and anti-corruption measures, including alignment with European standards and an attempt to unblock frozen EU funds.
Separately, the name TISZA has become established in Hungarian political symbolism, interpreted as “Respect” and “Freedom” (Tisztelet and Szabadság).
Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Hungary in March 2026 retain a clearly negative character, although the dynamics of recent months indicate a slight improvement in certain indicators. According to the results of a study conducted in March 2026 by the research company Active Group in cooperation with the information and analytical center Experts Club, the share of positive assessments increased to 18.6%, compared to 16.0% in August 2025, while the level of negative attitudes slightly decreased—from 55.7% to 52.2%.
Despite this dynamic, the overall structure of responses demonstrates the dominance of negative evaluations. The largest share consists of respondents who assess their attitude toward Hungary as “mostly negative” — 34.3%, while another 17.9% chose “completely negative.” Thus, the total level of negative perception exceeds half of all responses.
Positive assessments remain significantly lower: only 4.9% of respondents chose the option “completely positive,” and 13.8% selected “mostly positive.” At the same time, 27.3% of Ukrainians hold a neutral position, indicating the presence of an audience segment that does not have a formed or clearly expressed attitude toward this country. Another 1.9% of respondents were unable to provide an answer.
A comparison with August 2025 shows that the changes are evolutionary rather than radical in nature. The increase in positive assessments and the decrease in negative ones are relatively minor, indicating the persistence of a formed negative image of Hungary in Ukrainian society. At the same time, the trend toward improvement may indicate a gradual softening of perceptions or the influence of certain factors that are changing the information background.
An important feature is that even with some growth in positive sentiment, Hungary remains one of the few countries where negative assessments significantly outweigh positive ones. This distinguishes it from most other states in the region, where the balance is either positive or at least close to neutral.
At the same time, the presence of a significant share of neutral responses—more than a quarter of respondents—indicates potential for a shift in public opinion. A portion of Ukrainians does not have a clearly formed attitude, which creates opportunities for improving the country’s image through more active communication, economic cooperation, and public diplomacy.
“We conducted the survey at the beginning of March, and it is already evident that the political context surrounding certain countries can quickly influence evaluations. In the case of Hungary, this factor remains decisive in shaping negative perception. At the same time, even a slight increase in positive sentiment shows that these assessments are not entirely static,” said Oleksandr Pozniy, Director of the research company Active Group.
Thus, the results of the study demonstrate that Hungary is currently perceived by Ukrainians as a country with a predominantly negative image that has a systemic nature. Despite minor positive shifts, the balance of evaluations remains significantly tilted toward critical perception, which defines the specifics of public opinion regarding this state.
According to a study conducted by the Experts Club information and analytical center based on data from the State Customs Service, Hungary ranks ninth in terms of total trade in goods with Ukraine, with a figure of $3.30 billion. Imports of Hungarian goods exceed Ukrainian exports, creating a negative balance for Ukraine.
The study was presented at the Interfax-Ukraine press center; the video can be viewed on the agency’s YouTube channel. The full version of the study can be found via a link on the Experts Club analytical center’s website.
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, HUNGARY, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY, UKRAINE, URAKIN
Hungary has decided to strengthen security around its section of the TurkStream gas pipeline and place it under military control following an incident on Serbian territory, according to the Telegram channel “Serbian Economist”.
According to the report, the decision was made after an emergency meeting of the defence council convened by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said the military would guard the entire Hungarian section of the pipeline — from the border with Serbia to the border with Slovakia.
The move followed an incident in Serbia, where, according to Serbian and Hungarian authorities, powerful explosive devices were found near gas infrastructure through which Russian gas is delivered to Hungary and further into the region.
At the same time, the episode has already triggered political debate. Some publications and commentary in the region question the official version of events and suggest the story may have a political dimension, particularly against the backdrop of the election campaign in Hungary.
Ukraine, for its part, has officially rejected any attempts to link it to the incident in Serbia.
According to Serbian Economist, the Hungarian government has designated the “Hungary–Serbia” oil pipeline and related infrastructure as a priority investment project, which is expected to speed up administrative procedures and construction work. Budapest views the project as part of a broader strategy to better coordinate the energy and fuel markets of Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia. The Hungarian side believes this will enhance the resilience of regional energy supplies and reduce dependence on external risks.
Hungarian media reports state that the government’s goal is to bring the system into full operation in 2027 or 2028. The new route is intended to create an additional foundation for oil supplies to the region amid the continued vulnerability of existing supply lines.
The issue is particularly sensitive for the region following supply problems with the Druzhba pipeline, a section of which on Ukrainian territory was damaged in January. Against this backdrop, Budapest has in recent weeks linked energy security issues to broader regional policy.
For Serbia, accelerating the project is important both in terms of diversifying supply routes and in the context of ongoing uncertainty surrounding NIS and oil imports. The new pipeline could become one of the country’s key energy infrastructure projects.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2509
According to Serbian Economist, Romania has prepared a strategic study on the creation of a 781.9-km railway corridor from Constanța to the Hungarian border, which will combine modernized sections with speeds of 160–200 km/h and new double-track sections designed for speeds of up to 250 km/h. This is reported by Romanian business publications.
According to the study, the most suitable route is the Constanta–Bucharest–Brasov–Sighisoara–Târgu Mureș–Cluj-Napoca–Zaleu–Oradea–Hungarian border corridor. The project is estimated at €14.93 billion, with an average investment cost of approximately €19 million per kilometer.
The first phase involves the construction of a new double-track line between Bucharest and Cimpina with a design speed of 250 km/h, while the Cimpina–Brasov section is proposed to be upgraded to 200 km/h. The second phase covers the new Brasov–Cluj-Napoca line via Targu Mures, the third—Cluj-Napoca–Oradea via Zalau, and both of these new lines are also designed for 250 km/h. The fourth phase includes upgrading the Bucharest–Fetești section to 200 km/h and constructing a new double-track section between Fetești and Constanța for speeds of 250 km/h.
The document examines the technical, investment, operational, and institutional parameters of the project and recommends phased financing after 2027 through European funds, the state budget, and, potentially, public-private partnership mechanisms.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2476
