The European Council has published the conclusions of the meeting regarding granting Ukraine the status of a candidate member of the European Union.
“The European Council recognizes the European perspective of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia. The future of these countries and their citizens lies in the European Union. The European Council has decided to grant the status of a candidate country to Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova,” says the third section of the conclusions entitled “Application for membership of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia”.
The conclusions note that the European Commission is requested to report to the Council on “the fulfillment of the conditions specified in the Commission’s opinions on relevant applications for membership under its regular enlargement package”. “The Council will decide on further steps once all these conditions are fully met,” the document says.
With regard to Georgia, it is stated that the European Council is “ready to grant the status of a candidate country to Georgia after the priorities indicated in the Commission’s opinion on Georgia’s application for membership are resolved.”
“Each country’s progress towards the European Union will depend on its own merit in meeting the Copenhagen criteria, including the EU’s ability to admit new members,” the conclusions said.
The total amount of indirect (indirect) losses inflicted on the agricultural industry of Ukraine as a result of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation amounted to $ 23.3 billion for the period from February 24 to June 9, while the country suffered the largest losses (51%) due to the blockade of its seaports to reduce the cost of agricultural products – $ 11.9 billion.
The relevant data was published on Wednesday in the analytical study “Overview of indirect losses from the war in agriculture in Ukraine”, prepared by the Center for Food and Land Use Studies of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE Institute) in cooperation with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
The organization recalled that the day before it presented a study estimating the direct losses of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine due to Russian aggression at $4.3 billion. According to the document, direct losses reflect the complete or partial destruction of tangible assets, while costs that producers are forced to bear because of the war.
It is noted that half of the indirect losses of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex fell on the reduction in the cost of agricultural products due to its accumulation in the country caused by the blockade of Ukrainian seaports by the Russian fleet – $ 11.9 billion. Other factors were the reduction in crop production – $ 9.6 billion (43% of total losses) , an increase in the cost of production factors – $ 0.86 billion (4%), a reduction in the livestock sector – $ 0.68 billion (3%) and a reduction in the yield of perennial crops – $ 0.09 billion (> 1%).
“Due to the blockade of ports by the Russian Navy, Ukraine faced an oversaturation of the domestic market of export-oriented products and an almost fourfold increase in the cost of export logistics. This led to a decrease in prices within the country for the main export-oriented crops by more than 30%,” the statement says. in the KSE study.
As an example, the organization cites food wheat, the price of which in Ukraine on the terms of EXW (self-delivery) during the war with the Russian Federation decreased by 35% – from $297/ton to $192/ton, while over the same price period the world price for it increased post twice.
According to the study, the reduction in the wheat crop in 2022 is expected to be 33% compared to the baseline scenario, which corresponds to $2.03 billion of indirect losses, the reduction in the sunflower crop – 32% ($2.43 billion of indirect losses), barley – 31% ($0 .56 billion), corn – 18% ($1.29 billion). Lost income due to a reduction in the harvest of other crops is estimated at about $3.3 billion.
“With the start of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian agricultural producers also faced higher cost of production factors, including higher prices for fertilizers and fuel. The cost of fertilizers has increased by 37% since the beginning of the Russian invasion, while the price of diesel fuel has increased by about $0.39/liter. Total losses due to increased production costs are estimated at $859 million,” KSE stressed in the study.
According to her, the losses due to the reduction in the yield of perennial crops in 2022 are estimated at $89 million. Considering that it takes an average of five years before the fruiting period of new perennial plantations, indirect losses from the destruction of perennial plantations will amount to $222.4 million over five years.
“Calculation of indirect losses helps to understand not only the scale of the industry’s decline, but also the need for a full resumption of production. A significant part of the lost income was used to cover the costs of the subsequent sowing campaign and the purchase of feed for livestock. Without partial compensation for losses, farmers in the regions most affected by war, will not be able to resume production,” KSE quotes its expert Roman Neiter.
Ukraine may need up to EUR1 trillion in foreign aid to repair the damage caused by the Russian invasion, Bloomberg reports the words of the head of the European Investment Bank, Werner Hoyer, at a press conference in Frankfurt on Tuesday.
“I put (estimate) a trillion because I saw numbers in the public space that I consider completely unrealistic when I see the level of destruction in Ukraine,” Hoyer said.
In his opinion, Europe will have to play the biggest role in these efforts.
The head of the EIB also said that he is currently trying to redistribute the bank’s liabilities in the amount of EUR1 to EUR1.5 billion to restore Ukraine. According to him, the corresponding approval can be obtained as early as this week.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmygal, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine at the end of March, also said that Ukraine’s losses from Russia’s full-scale military aggression, taking into account both the destruction already inflicted on infrastructure and the economy, and future losses in subsequent years, exceed $1 trillion.
According to him, its first component is direct infrastructure damage, which at that time was estimated at about $120 billion, and taking into account military infrastructure and other civilian expenses, more than $270 billion.
The prime minister added that the second component is the calculation of the losses of the Ukrainian economy: the fall in GDP during the war, lost profits and investments – more than $ 290 billion, and the third – the losses received by the state as a result of a decrease in GDP in the future.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2021, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 3.4% after a 3.8% decline in 2020, its nominal volume amounted to about $200 billion. This year, the fall in GDP is predicted by various experts in the range of 30-45%.
Switzerland will hold an international conference on the restoration of Ukraine on July 4-5, the EFE news agency reported on Monday.
The conference, which will be held in Lugano, will be organized by the Swiss government together with Ukrainian representatives. It is expected that the discussion of the restoration of Ukraine will be held in four main directions: social, economic, environmental and infrastructural.
It is expected that the meeting will be attended by delegations from European countries, as well as from Canada and the USA. Representatives of international organizations, including the World Bank, are expected to attend the event.
In parallel with the conference, a cultural program is planned: concerts of classical and jazz music with musicians and artists from Ukraine.
During the UK-Ukrainian infrastructure summit in London, Ukraine and the UK, as well as representatives of UK business, signed a Memorandum on Ukraine’s infrastructure restoration.
The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine said in a report on its website on Saturday that this memorandum provides an opportunity for UK business to fully participate in the restoration of Ukraine’s infrastructure destroyed by Russia.
In partnership with UK business, a working group has been created that will work on the restoration of the critical infrastructure of Kyiv city and the region.
“The Ministry of Infrastructure is already developing a public register of damaged infrastructure and, together with colleagues in the government and international partners, is developing solutions for digital recovery management,” Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was quoted as saying.
According to him, now about 30% of the infrastructure in Ukraine has been destroyed.
At the same time, in the course of work on the restoration of transport communication, 41 temporary crossings have already been installed, almost 1,000 km of roads have been cleared.
The Ministry of Infrastructure said that the government of the UK, in particular, Secretary of State for Transport Grant Shapps, from the start of a full-scale invasion of Russia, provided full support in repelling aggression, restoring destroyed infrastructure and establishing supply chains in the condition of the war.
The supply of weapons to Ukraine from the United States under the lend-lease procedure has not yet begun and may start in a few months, says Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov.
“Lend-lease hasn’t started yet. But the adoption of the lend-lease law itself is a very positive decision for us. And lend-lease will be, the question is when. Here we come back to the fact that everyone’s clocks work differently in the war. For some, a day is like a day, but for us it’s completely different dimensions,” Danilov said in an interview with the League published on Saturday morning.
To a clarifying question when lend-lease arms deliveries are expected, he replied: “it could be July-August, maybe September.”
At the same time, Danilov said that there were “almost no Soviet-made ammunition of 122 and 155 mm caliber left.”
When asked how he assesses the results of Rammstein-3, the NSDC secretary replied: “We need to ask ourselves: who owes us something? To do this, we need to have a slightly different relationship with those countries that commit themselves. If our country were a member of NATO, it would be a completely different conversation.”
“Today we have to thank the countries that are helping us. There are a lot of them. We don’t know about all of them. A lot of countries ask not to voice the military weapons that they transfer to us. Time will pass and there will be our victory – we will thank everyone,” he said.
“No one will defend our country except us. Will they help us with weapons? They will. Will this weapon be enough? There are never enough weapons. But in this war, each country has its own tasks and visions for itself,” Danilov stressed.
