This year, China plans to complete construction and commission seven nuclear power units, according to the annual report of the China Nuclear Energy Association.
Currently, there are 60 nuclear power units in operation in the country, providing a stable foundation for the transition to clean energy, according to the report “Development of China’s Nuclear Energy.”
Thirty-six units are under construction, with construction on two of them having begun this year. China accounts for more than half of the total number of nuclear power plants under construction worldwide.
Plans for another 16 nuclear power units have been officially approved and are awaiting the start of construction, according to data from the report cited by China Daily.
The total installed capacity of China’s nuclear power plants is 125 GW, making the country the world leader in this category.
According to Serbian Economist, Ukraine has resumed negotiations with Serbia on establishing a free trade area, as the current level of trade between the two countries remains relatively low. Ukrainian Ambassador to Serbia Oleksandr Litvinenko stated this in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine. According to him, a free trade zone could revitalize bilateral economic ties and, at the same time, fit naturally into the European integration of both countries. Among the promising sectors, the diplomat cited mechanical engineering, particularly agricultural machinery.
For the Serbian Economist, what matters in this story is not only the political signal but also the plain arithmetic. According to official data from the Statistical Office of Serbia, in 2025, Serbian exports to Ukraine amounted to €179.6 million, imports from Ukraine to €212.2 million, and total trade turnover reached approximately €391.8 million. At the same time, Ukraine’s share of Serbian exports and imports remains at only about 0.5%, which indeed confirms the thesis that the scale of trade is still limited.
The current range of trade between the countries still appears rather narrow and largely consists of raw materials. According to data from the Ukrainian Embassy in Serbia, the main items of Ukrainian exports to Serbia are iron ore and ferrous metals, wood and wood products, as well as plastics and polymer materials. More detailed product statistics show that among the largest Ukrainian shipments to Serbia were iron ore worth $61.6 million, hot-rolled iron products worth $11.9 million, and semi-finished iron products worth $8.92 million.
From the Serbian side, exports to Ukraine currently consist mainly of fertilizers, plastics and polymer materials, electrical machinery, ferrous metals, soap, and rubber.
If we look at the potential impact of the FTA in practical terms, the most logical outcome appears to be an expansion of trade in those niches where one side can offer the other either cheaper or scarcer goods. For Ukraine, in addition to the metallurgical and raw material products already being exported to Serbia, these could include agricultural machinery, certain types of metal products, wood processing, value-added food products, and niche consumer goods.
For Serbia, the most potentially attractive goods on the Ukrainian market in the event of an FTA could be fertilizers, polymers, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, rubber products, tires, and auto parts. In other words, an FTA could theoretically shift trade from a narrow exchange of raw materials toward a greater number of processed goods on both sides.
A separate sensitive issue is Serbia’s status in the WTO. Serbia is still not a member of the World Trade Organization. The latest European Commission report on Serbia explicitly states that the process has stalled primarily due to the lack of a WTO-compliant law on GMOs and due to unfinished market access negotiations with a small number of WTO members. Belgrade has not concluded some of the bilateral negotiations required for WTO accession, and older Serbian documents listed Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, and the United States among the problematic partners.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2646
According to the Interfax-Ukraine Culture project, the 15th anniversary ceremony of the YUNA-2026 National Music Award took place on April 15 at the Ukraine National Palace of Arts, during which the winners were announced, reports a journalist from the “Culture” department of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“Fifteen years is not enough. We plan to continue at least until the ‘golden’ anniversary—50 years. It’s expensive, and we’re actually losing money, but we’re supporting Ukrainian music,” said the award’s founder, Mohammad Zahur, in an exclusive comment to the agency.
According to him, the award focuses exclusively on Ukrainian music released after 2014, and especially after 2022, having completely abandoned Russian-language content.
“We focus only on Ukrainian music. There used to be Russian-language music as well, but we’ve moved away from that,” he added.
Jamala opened the ceremony. The Armed Forces of Ukraine Ensemble also performed on stage with a medley of the year’s hits, and Tina Karol presented a special performance. Additionally, there was a premiere—Anna Trincher performed her new track “Your Mom.”
The event was interrupted by an air raid alert that lasted 1 hour and 33 minutes, prompting the audience and participants to evacuate the venue in accordance with safety protocols.
Among the winners were Artem Pivovarov, ADAM & Sasha Norova, Alena Omargalieva, The Maneken, Jerry Heil, MONATIK, TVORCHI, Ziferblat, and others.
The YUNA Award was established in 2011 and annually recognizes the achievements of Ukrainian artists and representatives of the music industry.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/culture/1159581.html
Issue No. 1 – April 2026
Analysis of the current situation in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market
In the first half of April, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market saw sustained elevated demand; however, the National Bank of Ukraine regularly supports the market through currency interventions, which curbs fluctuations toward hryvnia devaluation.
However, key factors putting pressure on the hryvnia remain, as high demand for foreign currency is fueled by importers’ contracts for fuel, which is becoming significantly more expensive due to the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the planting season has been proceeding at a brisk pace since the last ten days of March and continues to do so now, which also fuels demand for fuel and, accordingly, partly explains the specific dynamics of pricing in the fuel market. Contrary to analysts’ expectations, the war between Israel and the U.S. against Iran has not yet brought the parties to the negotiating table, but hopes for this in April are quite high, which is influencing the trajectory of oil prices and also putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Global Context
In April, the dollar is losing ground against the euro, and the DXY index shows that the US currency has depreciated by 2.2% over the past month.
Regarding Fed rates, the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for late April. Recall that at the March meeting, the benchmark rate was left unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. At the upcoming April meeting, no surprises are expected, and thus rates are expected to remain at the same level. And this is despite the fact that it is already clear: the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in energy prices and worsened economic prospects. However, Fed officials are waiting to assess how the economy reacts to the war in Iran. Consequently, financial markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the April meeting. Currently, the financial world is concerned about who will become the next Fed chair, as Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May. The issue of the regulator’s independence is very important, as there are known attempts by the Donald Trump administration to pressure the Fed to lower rates in order to stimulate economic activity.
One of the most significant factors affecting the economy (both in the US and the EU) is the situation in the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund has already revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 downward: expected global GDP growth will be 3.1% instead of the previously projected 3.3%.
The war in Iran is having a significant impact on the oil market—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is having a serious effect. Oil prices began to fall only in mid-April: over the past two weeks, the price of Brent has dropped from around $108 per barrel to $95 per barrel. The reason is optimism amid potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran: the U.S. president announced that Tehran had contacted Washington regarding a possible agreement. However, the problems in the oil market remain unresolved, and in its latest monthly report, the IEA stated that global oil supplies suffered “the largest disruption in history”: in March, they were reduced by 10.1 million barrels per day—to 97 million barrels per day.
Due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar is experiencing high volatility. In mid-April, the EUR/USD exchange rate reached 1.1786, although it stood at 1.1520 as recently as late March. Meanwhile, the outlook for the pair’s future trajectory depends not only on the war but also on the inflationary spike expected in Europe due to rising oil prices and, consequently, fuel costs. There is a high probability that the ECB will raise interest rates as early as this summer. Although ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the European Central Bank has not yet decided on the issue of raising interest rates, as the consequences of the war with Iran for the eurozone economy remain unclear.
The Domestic Ukrainian Context
In April, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market continues to be dominated by excess demand over supply. Fuel importers, whose prices continue to rise, have the greatest impact on demand. Earlier in March, the National Bank sold a fairly significant amount of currency on the interbank market—over $4.4 billion—while in February, for example, it sold $2.99 billion. However, interventions decreased somewhat in April: between April 6 and 10, they totaled $765.87 million. Thanks to the NBU’s participation in trading throughout March and then in the first half of April, the hryvnia managed to strengthen, and the exchange rate did not cross the psychological threshold of 44 UAH/USD.
In the cash market in April, demand for dollars and euros remained steady but declined significantly compared to the peak growth in March. Last month, cash currency purchases rose to $2.39 billion, while net cash currency purchases by the public in March amounted to $968 million. In April, thanks to a fairly stable exchange rate situation, there is no rush at cash desks and exchange offices, nor is there a shortage of cash dollars and euros.
In the macroeconomic sphere, Ukraine is in a rather difficult period of waiting. The first review of the International Monetary Fund program is scheduled for June 2026, and provided the review is successful, the fund will disburse the first tranche of $686 million. Meanwhile, the European Union has yet to resolve the issue of disbursing funds to Ukraine under a €90 billion loan program. These resources are critically important for the stability of the Ukrainian economy and for financing the budget deficit. However, the decision to grant the loan was previously blocked by the position of Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Recently, Péter Magyar, who became Hungary’s new prime minister, stated that the country would lift its veto on the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine as soon as oil supplies from Ukraine to Hungary via the pipeline are restored. Oil supplies are expected to resume in May, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that repair work on the pipeline would be completed by the end of April.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
In the first half of April, the hryvnia strengthened: while the NBU’s official exchange rate stood at 43.91 UAH/USD at the beginning of the month, it was 43.51 UAH/USD as of April 16. However, the interbank market was still influenced by increased demand, while supply was primarily shaped by interventions from the National Bank of Ukraine. The interbank rate stood at 43.85 UAH per dollar in early April and reached 43.44–43.5 UAH/dollar by mid-month.
In April, exchange rate fluctuations in the cash market stabilized, and the exchange rate moved toward a strengthening of the hryvnia. Overall, the buying rate for cash dollars in mid-April stood at 43.10–43.35 UAH/USD, whereas at the beginning of the month the buying rate was in the range of 43.40–43.60 UAH/USD. The selling rate for cash dollars in mid-April was 43.7–43.8 UAH/USD, while at the beginning of April, the selling rate at bank teller windows and currency exchange offices was in the range of 43.99–44.15 UAH/USD. As for the spreads between the buying and selling rates, they narrowed slightly—to 0.3–0.55 UAH/USD—which indicates a stabilization of the situation and a reduction in currency risk for institutions, and also suggests a positive outlook regarding the absence of panic demand for cash currency in the coming weeks.
Key influencing factors:
· Reduction in the volume of currency interventions by the NBU: The National Bank remains the main market maker in the foreign exchange market; however, in April, the regulator’s dollar sales volumes were already lower than in March, and exchange rate fluctuations were smoother.
· Strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate in April: this was facilitated by a temporary decline in demand for foreign currency from importing companies, as well as a noticeable drop in demand in the cash market.
· International factors: The dollar is losing ground in the global market amid the complex situation in the Middle East and expectations of de-escalation between Iran and the U.S., which is driving investors back to euro-denominated assets.
· Market behavioral expectations: The dollar remains a stable, liquid asset in the domestic market, and the hryvnia’s short-term strengthening provides an incentive for active investment in this currency.
Forecast
· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 43.70–44.20 UAH/USD, with likely fluctuations toward hryvnia depreciation, though rebounds toward the national currency’s strengthening are also possible.
· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.20–44.85 UAH/USD. On the international market, fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate will be influenced by the situation in the Middle East and potential negotiations between Tehran and Washington. There is a high probability that the Fed will not change rates at least until summer, which will give investors confidence in the growth potential of the U.S. economy despite all the risks caused by the war in Iran. A trend toward dollar strengthening is possible, especially after the situation in the Middle East stabilizes.
· Long-term (6+ months): the baseline scenario is a devaluation of the hryvnia to 44.5–45.5 UAH/$. The national currency will remain under pressure from both external and internal factors, with the most significant being signals from partners regarding continued support for Ukraine, the receipt of a tranche from the IMF, and the $90 billion loan program from the EU.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In April, the euro’s exchange rate against the hryvnia rose due to the global trend of the euro strengthening and the U.S. dollar weakening, which correspondingly affected the euro’s exchange rate in Ukraine. April began with the official euro exchange rate at 50.45 UAH/EUR, and as of April 16, the rate reached 51.27 UAH/EUR.
Meanwhile, there was no increased demand for the euro in Ukraine’s cash market in April, as the stabilization of the dollar’s exchange rate on the interbank and cash markets dampened the frenzy. At currency exchange offices and bank teller windows, the euro exchange rate fluctuated as follows during the first half of April: in early April, the buying rate was 50.0–50.7 UAH/EUR and the selling rate was 51.0–51.2 UAH/EUR, while in mid-April, the buying rate rose to 50.85–51.0 UAH/EUR. The strengthening of the euro on the global market was also reflected in the selling rate for cash euros—the rate reached 51.5–51.8 UAH/EUR.
Spreads between exchange rates widened again in mid-April amid continued uncertainty regarding the euro’s trajectory on the global market; consequently, banks have again set spreads at 0.5–1 UAH/EUR instead of the previous 0.5–0.6 UAH/EUR.
Key influencing factors:
· The euro is strengthening on the international market amid a decline in the US dollar: the euro-dollar exchange rate rose to 1.1786 in April, which influenced the exchange rate trajectory on Ukraine’s domestic market.
· Investors are returning to euro-denominated assets as they lose confidence in the US dollar: the conflict in the Middle East is not over, and the ECB may raise rates as early as this summer due to inflationary pressures.
· Declining demand for the euro in Ukraine: The public bought a large amount of currency in March, and in early April, ahead of Easter celebrations, currency sales predominated as people made necessary preparations for the holiday. The stable hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate fostered expectations of no turmoil in the currency market, and demand for the euro fell.
Forecast:
· Short term (2–4 weeks): if the euro continues to strengthen on the global market, the euro may remain within the 51.0–51.90 UAH/€ range on the Ukrainian market.
· Medium term (2–4 months): the euro may appreciate to 52.5 UAH/€. Falling oil prices and updated data from the ECB on eurozone inflation could strengthen the euro’s position.
· Long term (6+ months): if negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are successful and following the Fed’s decision on the next rate cut, the exchange rate may settle within the range of 52.80–53.60 UAH/€.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
Geopolitical turbulence influences financial decisions and confidence in currency assets. Key directions of change will be determined by the negotiation track between Tehran and Washington. Investors need to monitor the news, especially statements from Iran.
Fed rates will influence the future exchange rate trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. Currently, traders are confident in rate stability, but Jerome Powell’s departure from the chairmanship in May could throw a wrench in the works.
The U.S. labor market as an indicator. Investors should study official publications from the U.S. Department of Labor to react in a timely manner to the high probability of another round of Fed rate cuts.
Oil prices move in tandem with currency quotes. A significant drop in oil prices would signal improved prospects for the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the potential for a slight decline in the euro’s exchange rate.
Focus on safe-haven assets. Geopolitical conflicts and high risks of a slowdown in the growth rates of the world’s major economies are making it increasingly relevant to invest in straightforward instruments, including the dollar and the euro.
ECB decisions will influence the euro exchange rate. As inflation rises in Europe, the ECB may raise base rates. This could weaken the euro’s position.
The key requirement is high liquidity. Investors can build their portfolios in various currencies, but given liquidity, the dollar and the euro remain the core assets. Other currencies that can be used in your strategy include the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Polish zloty.
The US dollar is at the center of the currency strategy. Despite the uneven fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate on the global market, dollar holdings in a portfolio can range from 40% to 70%, as the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and the devaluation trends regarding hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine determine the absolute importance of dollar holdings.
The NBU’s discount rate as a signal for a short-term shift to the hryvnia. If the NBU raises the discount rate, a small portion of holdings can be reallocated to hryvnia-denominated assets—short-term deposits or government bonds. However, this involves investing approximately 10–15% of the portfolio.
What’s important in the news. First and foremost, information on negotiations between Iran and the U.S., oil market prices, new decisions by the Fed and the ECB, as well as analysis of inflation levels in Europe and the U.S. In Ukraine, the main drivers of currency market behavior will be the situation on the fuel market, possible large-scale shelling of infrastructure facilities by the aggressor, as well as news regarding the receipt of tranches from partners and creditors.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.
Users of this material must independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
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The Business Expectations Index (BEI) for enterprises rose to 105.8% in January–March 2026, compared to 102.1% in October–December 2025, breaking a three-quarter downward trend, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) based on the results of a survey of company executives.
“In Q1 2026, businesses expected a revival in business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents forecast growth in the volume of goods and services produced and strengthened their positive assessments of their own companies’ development. Inflation expectations remained unchanged, while exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly,” the regulator noted in a press release.
The NBU notes that military operations and their consequences remain the dominant factor (83%) limiting enterprises’ ability to increase production volumes. The shortage of skilled workers continues to have a significant impact. More than any other factor, the influence of excessively high energy prices was expected to intensify.
According to the published data, businesses have significantly improved their assessments of production volumes in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 0.6% compared to -1.8% in Q4 2025. Optimistic sentiment was demonstrated by enterprises in the energy and water supply, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, and communications sectors. Negative sentiment was demonstrated by enterprises in the trade sector, small businesses, as well as those engaged solely in import/export operations.
According to the survey results, business inflation expectations stabilized: projected annual inflation stood at 11.1%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly—to 45.00 UAH/$1 (in Q4 2025—44.27 UAH/$1). Respondents also provided a forecast for the EUR exchange rate in 12 months for the first time, with an average value of 54.00 UAH/EUR.
The assessment of the current financial and economic condition of enterprises remains subdued, though the balance of responses improved slightly to -4.7% (-5.8% in Q4 2025). Expectations regarding changes in the financial condition of their own companies next year rose to 2.0% (in Q4 2025 – 0.8%). It is noted that transport and communications enterprises, as well as those in other sectors, have optimistic expectations, while representatives of construction and trade expect the future financial and economic condition of their own enterprises to remain at the current level.
Respondents are more confident in expecting growth in product sales volumes: the balance of responses rose to 14.5% (from 9.6% a quarter earlier), and for sales in foreign markets—from 11.7% in Q4 2025 to 15.8% in Q1 2026. Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery and equipment improved—from 7% to 12.8%—while expectations regarding construction work turned positive for the first time in a year—1.6% (Q4 2025 recorded -2.9%).
Companies attracting foreign investment maintained their expectations regarding growth in foreign investment volumes next year: the balance of responses was 11.6% (15.5% in Q4 2025). Expectations were highest among energy and water supply companies. The share of respondents planning to attract foreign investment in the next 12 months stood at 20.9%, compared to 21.5% in the previous survey.
In the labor market, the trend toward a softening of negative assessments regarding the number of employees continues: the balance of responses was -1.8%, compared to -3.8% in Q4 2025. Energy and water supply companies expected to increase their workforce. In contrast, respondents from agriculture, the extractive and processing industries, trade, and other sectors had negative expectations, with agriculture showing the most negative outlook.
Respondents raised their assessments of the need for borrowed funds in the near future: the balance of responses stood at 34.7% compared to 31.7% in Q4 2025. The share of respondents planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged: 35.6% compared to 35.7% in Q4 2025. Those planning to take out loans traditionally prefer loans in the national currency—83.5% (80.9% in Q4 2025). Excessively high interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing remain the most significant obstacles to new loans—44% and 43.4%, respectively. Additionally, the influence of the factor “significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate against foreign currencies” has increased by 4.3 percentage points, to 17.8%.
The NBU notes that respondents slightly softened their assessments regarding the strictness of conditions for accessing bank loans: the balance of responses was 11.4% (11.6% in Q4 2025). 6.6% of respondents planned to raise funds abroad, compared to 7.1% in the previous quarter.
The quarterly survey was conducted from January 29 to February 27, 2026, among executives of 664 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine. An index value above 100 indicates a predominance of positive economic sentiment.
Among those surveyed, 21.1% were trading companies, 19.1% were in the manufacturing industry, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.9% in transportation and communications, 5.9% were in the extractive industry, 4.8% in energy and water supply, and 3.2% in construction. In terms of size, 30.4% of respondents were large enterprises, 37.7% were medium-sized, and 31.9% were small.
Over the past month, the Ukrainian Energy Exchange held 152 trading sessions on the BETS, 84 auctions for the purchase and sale of electricity on the BETS in the “Electric Power” version, and four trading sessions each day on the short-term natural gas market.
As a result, 3,164.28 thousand MWh of electricity, 174.53 thousand tons of crude oil and gas condensate, 14.37 thousand tons of liquefied gas and petroleum products, 37.1 million cubic meters of natural gas, and 297.73 tons of raw materials were sold. In addition, 297 auctions were held in March in the “Raw Timber and Lumber” category. The total sales volume for this category amounted to 481,830 cubic meters.
“Transparent market mechanisms are the foundation for the development of the energy sector and economic stability. We strictly adhere to the principles of equality, objectivity, and impartiality, implementing modern software solutions to achieve our clients’ strategic goals,” noted UEB CEO Oleksandr Kovalenko.
