Number of refugees from Ukraine in selected countries as of 31.05.2024
Source: Open4Business.com.ua
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has raised more than $510 million from the private sector and international donors to support Ukrainian agricultural producers over two years as part of the Agricultural Resilience Initiative in Ukraine (AGRI-Ukraine), with the U.S. government contributing another $350 million to the program, the donor organization said.
“AGRI-Ukraine, founded in July 2022, has already helped more than 14 thousand Ukrainian farmers, which is 32% of registered agricultural producers in the country, to obtain the necessary resources, such as seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, access to storage facilities and financial resources. This made it possible to harvest crops and provide additional income of more than $90 million due to an increase in corn and sunflower production by 430 thousand tons,” the statement said.
When Russia tried to block the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea ports, AGRI-Ukraine helped to prepare alternative export routes, in particular through ports on the Danube River and land border crossings.
Thanks to these measures, 62 million tons of agricultural products were exported, bringing more than $17 billion to the Ukrainian economy, USAID stated.
According to the donor organization, contributions of $510 million provided by the private sector and international donors tripled the original target set by USAID.
“In 2023, AGRI-Ukraine expanded its circle of partners to include 26 Ukrainian agricultural companies, the American seed company Gowan Seed, international financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the governments of the Republic of Korea and Japan.
“USAID and its partners remain committed to supporting Ukraine’s agricultural sector and the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, which will help mitigate the global food crisis that is deepening as a result of the war unleashed by Russia,” the donor organization assured.
Ferrexpo, a mining company with assets in Ukraine, increased its total sales of iron ore products by 85% year-on-year to 3.8 million tons in January-June this year.
According to the company’s interim report, out of 3.8 million tons, 1.8 million tons were exported through Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
Total commercial production in the first six months of 2024 increased by 75% to 3.7 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of pellets and 0.4 million tons of commercial concentrate.
C1’s production cost in 1H2024 increased to $79/tonne due to higher energy costs, expansion of mining activities, maintenance and repairs, partially offset by the positive effect of currency devaluation and cost-saving measures, the report explains.
It also notes that due to difficulties with electricity supply, the company is addressing this issue. At the same time, electricity costs in June increased by about $11/tonne at C1’s cost compared to the previous month. “C1 Group’s costs increased to $78.8/tonne in H1 2024 due to higher electricity prices offset by a slight devaluation of the hryvnia and the effect of a more favorable fixed exchange rate and increased production volumes,” the report explains.
Total distribution expenses in the reporting period increased to $148 million compared to $74 million in the first half of the previous year due to sales growth. And it is noted that maritime logistics routes are usually the cheapest and most efficient way to deliver the group’s products to its customers. As a result, sea sales increased by 1.7 million tons to 2.1 million tons in the first half of 2024 compared to 0.4 million tons in the same period of 2023.
In 1H2024, Ferrexpo reduced its capex by 5% year-on-year to $55 million from $58 million as a result of a 64.2% increase in revenue to $548.535 million from $334.010 million. EBITDA increased by 24.1% to $79.043 million from $63.685 million. Cash at the end of the first half of this year amounted to $115.131 million compared to $134.903 million at the end of June 2023.
In January-June 2024, Ferrexpo doubled its net profit compared to the same period last year to $55.490 million from $27.009 million. Pre-tax profit for the period amounted to $75.671 million, while in January-June 2023 it was $35.446 million.
In 2023, Ferrexpo reduced its capital investments by 37.1% to $101.247 million compared to $161.010 million in 2022 and $361 million in 2021.
Ferrexpo is an iron ore company with assets in Ukraine. Ferrexpo owns 100% of shares in Poltava Mining, 100% of shares in Yeristovo Mining and 99.9% of shares in Bilanivsky Mining.
Investment banking firm Capital Times (Kyiv) has revised its macro forecast for 2024-2025, worsening its expectations of economic growth by 2.0 percentage points (pp) to 3.1% and inflation by 2.6 pp. – To 9.0%.
“We assume that the cooling economy will lead to negative real GDP in Ukraine in Q4 2024g and Q1 2025. Improvement of the forecast is possible subject to the implementation of mechanisms of budgetary stimulation of the economy, which was announced by representatives of the authorities,” the company said in a press release on Wednesday.
According to it, forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for next year are also worsened by 1.3 pp. – To 2.9% and 7.0% respectively.
It is indicated that Capital Times analysts record signs of economic slowdown and attribute them to a smaller flow of external financial assistance, as well as internal mobilization processes. Among other reasons were cited problems with electricity supply, strengthening trade and budget deficits.
The nominal GDP estimate was cut by 2.2% to $188.3 billion for this year and 1.8% to $205.7 billion for next year.
The company noted that while inflation reached its lowest levels in Q2 2024, there was a sharp acceleration in consumer and industrial inflation in June due to higher electricity prices.
“In the pre-war years, businesses gradually shifted the cost of utility bills to the consumer, but in wartime, there is not enough resource for businesses to cover the additional costs. Therefore, the business immediately lays the growth of production costs in the prices,” the analysts explained.
According to the updated forecast, Capital Times worsened expectations of the average official exchange rate for this year to UAH 40.5/$1 from UAH 39/$1 in the previous forecast, and for the end of the year – to UAH 42.5/$1 from the previously forecasted UAH 41/$1. Analysts are also more pessimistic about the possible trajectory of the hryvnia in 2025: the average annual official exchange rate is forecast at 43.7 UAH/$1, and 45.2 UAH/$1 at the end of the year, while earlier they expected the average exchange rate in 2025 at 42 UAH/$1.
“The accumulation of structural problems with budget financing and decreasing financial support from partners stipulate a gradual devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia during 2024. The devaluation trend is very strong and we anticipate hryvnia weakness in the second half of this year,” the release said.
At the same time, analysts improved their forecast for Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves for this year from $38 bln to $41.5 bln, worsening it for next year from $42 bln to $40 bln.
A positive aspect of the updated macro forecast is the gradual narrowing of the negative trade balance from $37.7bn last year to $36.8bn this year and $35.4bn next year.
Analysts believe that agreement on a plan to restructure external debt, agreements with European partners on the Ukraine Facility program, implementation of the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans mechanism of providing Ukraine with $50bn, secured by future revenues from frozen Russian assets, and full IMF support are factors that will reduce Ukraine’s dependence on US aid in the coming years, offsetting the risks of the US election results.
“No significant changes on the front, despite a palpable excess of enemy forces. In the second half of the year, we assume more positive news for Ukraine, including progress in the liberation of territories. However, we see 2027-2028 as the base scenario for the end of the war,” Capital Times summarized.
Capital Times, GDP, Ukraine
On the fourth day of the XXXIII Olympic Games in Paris, representatives of the Ukrainian national team competed in 9 sports, the National Olympic Committee (NOC) of Ukraine reported on its Facebook page on Wednesday.
It is reported that Ukraine ranks 35th in the medal standings with one bronze medal.
According to the results of the tournament day, Ukrainian athletes showed the following results.
Table tennis (singles): in the 1/16 finals, Margarita Pesotska lost in 5 games to Bernardet Soch from Romania (1:4) and ended her performance at the Games.
Badminton (singles): In the second round of the group stage, Polina Bugrova defeated Czech Teresa Schwabikova 1-2 (21:19, 19:21, 21:18). However, this is not enough to get out of the group.
Swimming: Denys Kesil finished 24th in the 200-meter butterfly qualifying round and did not qualify for the semifinals.
Archery: In the 1/32 finals, Mykhailo Usach lost to world ranking leader Marcus D’Almeida of Brazil (2:6).
Fencing (epee, team): in the 1/4 finals, Joan Fabi Bejura, Daria Varfolomeieva, Olena Kryvitska and Vlada Kharkiv failed to defeat the team from China (41:45).
In the tournament for the 5th-8th places, the Ukrainian team defeated Egypt (45:31) and lost to the second place in the world ranking, the South Korean team (38:45). Ukrainian fencers finished in 6th place at the Games.
Tennis: In the third round, Marta Kostiuk and Elina Svitolina played grueling three-set matches. While Marta’s match with Greece’s Maria Sakkari ended in a victory for the Ukrainian (6:4, 6:7 (5:7), 4:6), Elina was defeated by Barbara Krejcikova of the Czech Republic (6:7(5), 6:2 (4:6)).
Marta Kostiuk and Diana Yastremska withdrew from the doubles tournament in favor of the singles tournament, in which Marta is participating.
Rowing slalom (women’s single): Viktoriya Us finished 9th in the qualifiers and advanced to the semifinals.
Football (3rd round): Ukraine lost to Argentina (0:2) and ended its participation in the Olympics.
Boxing (weight category up to 80 kg): in the 1/8 finals, Oleksandr Khyzhnyak defeated ex-Ukrainian Philip Akilov, representing Hungary, by a split decision of the judges.
On July 31, Ukrainians will compete in 8 sports
Dynamics of reserves of Ukraine from 2012 to 2024, million USD
Source: Open4Business.com.ua
