Issue No. 1 – June 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
The first half of June 2025 saw a continuation of the trend of relative stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of sharp shocks, significant changes, or unexpected exchange rate jumps. At the same time, the market remains in a mode of cautious anticipation on the part of both consumers and operators.
The US dollar exchange rate remains within a controlled range, showing minimal changes within the so-called floating stability. This was made possible by the systemic influence of key factors: high foreign exchange reserves, subdued consumer demand, moderate business activity, and predictable foreign exchange supply.
The euro continued its wave-like dynamics in June, with a tendency to return to growth after a slight correction in May. High sensitivity to the global context, structural demand for the euro in business operations, as well as intensified discussions in Europe on enhancing the role of the euro in the global dimension as a counterweight to the dollar, all keep the EUR/UAH pair in a zone of increased volatility and force us to monitor the EUR/USD pair.
Global context
The first significant signal in June was the European Central Bank’s 25 basis point cut in its base interest rate — the first easing since the start of its tight anti-inflation cycle. The decision was expected and had already been partially priced in, which explains the lack of immediate impact on the euro exchange rate.
At the same time, this move could open a potential cycle of rate cuts in the EU, which could affect the euro’s position in the longer term, especially if the US Federal Reserve remains more conservative. This could create a yield differential in favor of the dollar, potentially reducing the euro’s attractiveness to investors and putting pressure on its exchange rate against the dollar. In such a scenario, the euro risks losing some of its gains in the longer term.
At the same time, the Fed’s key rate remains unchanged in the US, and the institution itself is not giving any clear signals of a cut before the end of the summer. The market perceives this as a sign of internal uncertainty. Forecasting is complicated by the so-called Donald Trump factor, who often makes controversial statements or takes actions that are met with legal opposition, although the general direction of his political approach is already clear, which is a source of new risk expectations: the preservation of a protectionist course, the weakening of the institutional independence of the Fed, and radical financial initiatives. All of these factors, including internal socio-political opposition in the US to the new president’s policies, are fueling a long-term trend of gradual erosion of unconditional trust in the dollar.
Thus, despite the absence of immediate consequences, the positional struggle between the world’s two key currencies, the dollar and the euro, is entering a new phase of strategic review.
Internal context
The National Bank of Ukraine continued its gradual currency liberalization, expanding the list of permitted transactions for banks and businesses. This is evidence of the stabilisation of the domestic currency market, but the real effect of these changes will be assessed not only by the volume of repatriated income, but also by the reaction of potential investors — whether they consider such changes a signal to return capital to Ukraine.
On the other hand, the streamlining of transactions with foreign currency-denominated government bonds, which allowed businesses to circumvent the NBU’s restrictions on currency purchases, is a clear indication of the national regulator’s desire to maintain control over currency transactions and close loopholes for its quasi-legal flow through various channels.
The structure and volume of international support for 2026 remain a key factor of long-term uncertainty. The lack of guarantees of long-term international financing and Ukraine’s unclear implementation of its commitments or their questionable effectiveness could create a dangerous mix of fiscal risks and put pressure on exchange rate expectations. The market and players are naturally beginning to factor these factors into their scenarios.
This may be reflected not only in currency forecasts, but also in the pricing of importers and producers, taking into account the further devaluation of the hryvnia and the desire of the population and businesses to accumulate foreign currency, which will have a wide range of long-term consequences for the stability of the national currency and macroeconomic indicators.
Overall, the situation on the currency market remains calm, but the role of forecast factors is growing, primarily global political risks and long-term expectations regarding financial support. The Ukrainian market is increasingly living in a format of strategic balancing between current stability and future uncertainty.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia remained stable with a slight downward trend. Over the past 30 days, the average selling rate of the dollar in banks remained at 41.75–41.78 UAH/USD. The buying rate fluctuated around 41.15–41.22 UAH/USD, while the official NBU rate was around 41.50–41.55 UAH/USD.
Over the past week, there has been a slight decline in all three key indicators: the official exchange rate returned to 41.447 UAH/USD, the buying rate to 41.16 UAH/USD, and the selling rate to 41.70 UAH/USD.
The main focus is on spreads: the selling rate has been “pressed” against the official NBU rate for most of the last period, while the buying rate shows greater deviation from it and is moving lower. This indicates that stable demand for cash currency from the population and businesses remains, while operators are reluctant to buy dollars at a higher price. This is evidence that currency market operators do not expect the exchange rate to rise beyond the usual small fluctuations and are not factoring a risk or panic premium into the dollar price. This market behavior signals calm and balance, moderate liquidity, and the absence of psychological pressure factors.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the euro continued its clear upward trend against the hryvnia, remaining the most volatile currency pair on the Ukrainian market. Over the last 30 calendar days, the euro has grown steadily: the average selling rate in banks rose from 46.90 UAH to 48.20–48.30 UAH/EUR as of mid-June. The sharpest movement occurred between June 12 and 13, when the market selling rate jumped by more than 50 kopecks at once and was “caught up” by the official NBU rate the next day. This phenomenon indicates the synchronization of the market and the regulator not only in expectations regarding the further strengthening of the euro, but also in setting prices on the market and the official exchange rate indicator. At the same time, the euro purchase rate by currency market operators showed a more gradual dynamic and did not repeat the growth rate of the selling rate.
As a result, there was a noticeable widening of the spread between buying and selling: from 60–70 kopecks to over 1 UAH. This gap is an indicator of increased nervousness among market operators: in conditions of volatility, financial institutions are trying to protect themselves from exchange rate risks by setting an additional margin as an indicator of expected instability.
Forecast:
• Short term (2–4 weeks): high chances of consolidation within 47.80–48.50 UAH/EUR with situational fluctuations depending on the actions of the NBU, external news, and market sentiment.
• Medium term (2–4 months): in the absence of external shocks, the euro has the potential to grow to 49.00–49.50 UAH/EUR, especially given the structural demand in Ukraine, the transition of many contracts to the euro, and the population’s focus on the new El Dorado, which may bring an exchange rate premium and justify expectations for long-term growth in savings.
• Long term (6+ months): The euro retains its potential for further strengthening, especially in the context of a global restructuring of currency priorities and the internal reorientation of Ukrainian business. However, volatility will remain high, so it is recommended to constantly monitor the share of this currency in portfolios. Given the combination of many factors of uncertainty, we are not publishing a long-term forecast for the euro exchange rate.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
The first half of June shows continued stability in the currency market in the dollar segment and a return to wave-like dynamics in the euro/hryvnia pair. All this is happening against the backdrop of gradual currency liberalization in Ukraine and a new phase of global investor confidence shifting between the dollar and the euro. In such an environment, currency strategy should remain flexible, adaptable, and calculated for several different scenarios.
Liquidity is paramount. All currency assets should be held in instruments that allow for quick response. Term deposits, bonds without early exit options, or pegs to a single currency are potential traps. In the coming months, the focus should be on preserving the ability to maneuver quickly rather than on returns.
The euro — rapid growth has given way to cautious turbulence. After a noticeable jump in June, the market has already factored in most of the news and events significant for the eurozone. If you need to reformat the share of this currency in your portfolio, it is better to do so gradually as spreads narrow.
The dollar remains an important element of protection. Current stability does not mean that the dollar has lost its functions and appeal. On the contrary, in the medium and long term, it is worth keeping it in your portfolio: in the fall or winter, a devaluation trend is likely for the hryvnia, which will reward patient dollar holders with strong nerves.
Spreads are the main marker for decisions. If spreads are stable in the USD/UAH pair, they are widening again in the EUR/UAH pair. This indicates a return of nervousness and uncertainty: when operators build additional margins into the exchange rate, it is a signal not to rush. When the spread narrows, it is time to analyze the entry point.
Fixed currency benchmarks are prohibited. The exchange rate predictability of recent weeks is not a basis for routine actions or excessive optimism. Continue to work with 3–4 exchange rate scenarios and test how your asset structure will perform under each of them.
Hryvnia — do not hold more than necessary. It is stable for now, but excessive accumulation of hryvnia creates risks. Hryvnia holdings in excess of operating reserves should be converted into any of the reliable currencies or instruments pegged to them.
Currency liberalization is more of a signal than a call to action. The NBU’s signals about easing restrictions are important, but so far this is more of a symbolic step. The real effect will be noticeable closer to the fall. Investors and businesses should not only monitor liberalization steps but also bear in mind the possibility of the regulator reversing its actions if the exchange rate scenario forces it to return to restrictions. It may be worth considering switching to currency instruments that are least dependent on government actions, such as cash or stablecoins based on reliable currencies.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information.
All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, commitment to timeliness, or updates or additions. Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified.
Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the National Bank of Ukraine. KYT Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into other European countries.
The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has granted permission to Cliff Capital Growth Aif V.C.I.C. Ltd, a Cyprus-based company affiliated with the Kovalskaya Group, to acquire control over Unit B04 LLC. The relevant decision was made by the committee on June 12.
“The company has indeed received permission from the AMCU to acquire a stake in Unit B04 with the aim of establishing full corporate control over the facility, in accordance with preliminary agreements with partners,” the group’s press service told Interfax-Ukraine on Friday.
A similar deal was already implemented in early 2025, when Kovalskaya gained 100% control over the Unit B06 facility, the group added. Construction of these facilities was completed in 2023 and 2024.
“Work is currently underway on the interior finishing of the premises,” the press service added.
As reported, the Kovalskaya group planned to invest $70 million in the construction of five business centers in Unit.City – B01, B02, B03, B04, B06.
The investment fund Cliff Capital Growth is managed by Guardo Assets Management, which also manages the funds Aksioma, A Realty, AC Real, and Vingis.
The Kovalskaya industrial and construction group has been operating in the Ukrainian construction market since 1956. It unites more than 20 enterprises in the fields of raw materials extraction, manufacturing, and construction. Its products are sold under the brands Beton ot Kovalskaya, Avenue, and Siltek. Kovalskaya’s enterprises operate in the Kiev, Zhytomyr, Lviv, and Chernihiv regions. The aerated concrete plant in the Kherson region has not been operating since the beginning of the occupation.
The group also includes Kovalskaya Real Estate, which is engaged in the construction of residential properties in Kyiv. Its portfolio includes more than 20 completed residential projects.
Last Friday, June 6, the international agricultural forum Agro Ukraine Summit was held in Kyiv for the second year in a row.
The agricultural sector is the driving force of Ukraine’s economy, and the summit is an important platform for exchanging ideas, analyzing challenges, and developing strategies to increase productivity, sustainable development, and international trade in agricultural products with a focus on European integration.
This year’s summit was prepared as a large-scale event on the Ukrainian market with the broad involvement of European partners, international organizations, and companies with the aim of not only bringing together all key stakeholders in the agricultural and food sectors, but also creating a dynamic platform for inclusive national dialogue, cooperation, and growth.
One of the key achievements of the event was that, together with ProAgro Group, leading agricultural associations of Ukraine joined the organization, including the Ukrainian Grain Association, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, the Ukrkharcheprom industry association, the Ukrainian Bean and Soybean Association, the Ukrainian Dairy Association, the All-Ukrainian Farmers’ Congress, as well as Aggeek, Ukraine Facility Platform, the Solar Energy Association, and the Ukrainian-European Business Hub. Preparing for such a large-scale event really required the involvement of a large number of specialized organizations, which demonstrated through their example that the combined efforts of experts can yield remarkable results.
In addition, the summit was held with the active support of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. The event was attended by Minister Vitaliy Koval and his deputies, as well as the heads and specialists of the ministry’s leading departments, who took an active part in the discussions and debates. And the former acting Minister of Agrarian Policy, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences Olga Trofimtseva, not only headed the summit’s program committee, but also became its co-host and moderator of several discussion panels.
The night of June 6 in Ukraine was once again restless due to massive attacks by Russian forces. The capital was again under fire, and in the morning, Kyiv residents and visitors to the city faced serious logistical problems, which prevented some participants of the Agro Ukraine Summit from arriving on time for its opening. However, the vast majority eventually made it to the Parkovy Exhibition Center, where the event was held, and within an hour more than 2,000 people had registered—a record number for an agricultural event in the country, not only during the war but also in peacetime.
The summit began with the Ukrainian national anthem, which is our unbreakable tradition, designed to show who we are, what country is in our hearts, and for whose prosperity we live, work, and fight. This was followed by a minute of silence to honor those who died in the war with Russian occupiers—this tribute to their memory has also become a tradition.
Oleg Klymenko, director of ProAgro Group, addressed the participants and guests of the Agro Ukraine Summit with a welcoming speech. Olga Trofimtseva officially opened the summit, emphasizing that the agricultural sector is the driving force of Ukraine’s economy and that the summit is an important platform for exchanging ideas, analyzing challenges, and developing strategies to improve the efficiency and sustainable development of Ukrainian agriculture as a guarantor of food security for the country and the world.
Pierre Bascu, Deputy Director-General of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture, sent his best wishes for fruitful work to the summit participants from Brussels. He emphasized the EU government’s unwavering support for Ukraine and its readiness to provide maximum assistance to Ukrainian agricultural producers on their path to European integration.
In addition to the main conference, summit participants had the opportunity to attend five industry conferences that ran throughout the day:
Due to the large number of conferences, we are unable to cover each one in a single publication, otherwise it would be a very long article. To summarize, each conference featured 6-7 thematic panels with over 140 speakers, each of whom spoke about the most important issues in their field, discussed with the audience, and answered questions from moderators and participants. You can watch recordings of all the speakers’ presentations on the official YouTube page of Proagro Information Company.
However, we will still focus on the main topic of the Agro Ukraine Summit. It was unintentional, but the summit took place on the second day after the expiry of the EU’s autonomous trade preferences with Ukraine. At the same time, agricultural products are one of Ukraine’s main exports, and thanks to the preferences introduced by the European Commission at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, agricultural exports to the EU have accounted for more than half of Ukraine’s total agricultural exports in recent years.
Is there life after the ATM, when exports to the EU will return to pre-war rules, along with their duties and quotas on a number of Ukrainian goods? This question was answered by Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitaliy Koval and his first deputy Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka, Advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olena Sotnyk, and the aforementioned representative of the EC Directorate-General for Agriculture Pierre Bascu. Arno Peti, Executive Director of the International Grains Council, Iliana Axiotia, Secretary General of the European Association of Agricultural Producers COCERAL, Mykola Gorbachev, President of the UGA, and Nazar Bobytsky, Head of the European Office of the UCA, also spoke on this issue.
Vitaliy Koval managed to partially calm the situation by announcing that work under the previous trade rules, already dubbed 7/12, would continue until the end of July. By that time, negotiations between the Ukrainian delegation and representatives of the European Commission should be completed, resulting in updated trade rules between Ukraine and the EU within the framework of the Association Agreement. They will not be as liberal as the ATM, but the Ukrainian side is currently making every effort to ensure that they are as fair as possible for Ukraine as an official candidate for EU membership and as a country waging a brutal war, defending not only itself but also the entire eastern flank of the European Union.
In a short interview at the Agro Ukraine Summit, Vitaliy Koval also answered several other questions, including those asked from the conference hall. One participant asked what the minister’s most ambitious goal for 2025 was. “My main goal is to lead Ukraine past the point of no return from a raw materials-based economy to an agro-industrial state and to see January 1, 2026, in a peaceful country where farmers have contributed to victory no less than anyone else,” he replied.
At each Agro Ukraine Summit conference, and indeed at each panel, there were topical issues, interesting questions, and answers. But perhaps the most were at the Agro Ukraine Expo, which was held as part of the summit and featured more than 110 companies with stands where they showcased their cutting-edge products and services for the agricultural industry, as well as the latest technologies and solutions.
The summit also featured two large lounge areas with comfortable places for networking. At times, it seemed that they were even more crowded than the conference rooms. But this is understandable, since one of the main values and advantages of such events is the opportunity for participants to meet, exchange business contacts, and conduct business negotiations. Therefore, at the Agro Ukraine Summit, we try to facilitate these opportunities as much as possible, including through a relaxed atmosphere, pleasant live music, and delicious refreshments. As one of the summit guests noted, “More contacts mean more contracts.” We couldn’t agree more, which is why we strive to achieve this.
The day of the summit ended on a high note with a performance by the National Academic Orchestra of Folk Instruments of Ukraine, which caused an explosion of emotions with its incredible sound and unique combination of traditional Ukrainian music and the most famous hits of the world stage, as well as an almost hour-long concert by Ukrainian singer Jamala, winner of Eurovision 2016.
It is also worth noting that this year’s Agro Ukraine Summit was the 200th anniversary conference for the organizing company, ProAgro Group. This means that, with over 2,000 participants at this year’s summit, the total number of people who have attended the company’s events over the past 20 years has reached 50,000!
To mark this event and thank all participants, ProAgro Group raffled off a certificate for an exhibition stand at the company’s next events. Five winners of the raffle also received a pass for free admission to all conferences over the next 20 years!
After all the celebrations, the director of ProAgro Group announced that next year’s event will no longer be called Agro Ukraine Summit, but Agro Ukraine Week, a multi-day event that aims to become not only the largest agricultural event in Ukraine, but also one of the leading events in Europe. Incidentally, this idea has already been approved and supported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. So, preparations are already underway!
Finally, ProAgro Group would like to express its sincere gratitude to the title partners of this year’s Agro Ukraine Summit – AgriGo, GRECO group, and VITAGRO; general partners – ERIDON and TOKMAK DIESEL; exclusive partners – A. TOM and VOLTAGE, as well as over 100 partner companies.
We would also like to thank all media outlets that became information partners of the Agro Ukraine Summit, led by the general media partner, the TV channel “MY – UKRAINE.” We would like to take this opportunity to congratulate all journalists on their professional holiday, Journalist Day, which was celebrated in parallel with the summit on June 6.
Interfax-Ukraine is an information partner.
The average time taken to decide on buying an apartment in 2025 has increased to 67 days, which is more than three times longer than in pre-war 2021 (21 days), according to the press service of the development company DIM, citing internal CRM analytics and market analysis over the past four years.
“We are no longer dealing with emotional demand. The buyer of 2025 is a person who thinks, doubts, compares, consults, and chooses a balance between emotions and rational preferences. Selling has become a process of mutual decision-making, not just a demonstration of advantages,” comments DIM junior partner Arseny Nasirovsky.
According to the company, the number of points of contact before a purchase has increased 2.3 times since 2021, from 5-6 times to at least 13. Today’s buyers research the project online (website, digital cases, video reviews), visit the sales department at least once with a companion or relative, monitor the construction progress for some time, and even request a legal review of documents or a contract template for review.
At the same time, in 2021, 62% of transactions took place at the foundation stage or when the property was up to 30% complete. In 2025, such cases will account for just under 18%. On the other hand, 77% of purchases are properties that are more than 60% complete or have recently completed previous phases, demonstrating that the developer is continuing to build and is doing so systematically.
As for neighboring markets, this figure ranges from 60 to 120 days in European countries. In particular, in Spain, the average cycle for deciding to buy an apartment is 90-120 days, in Germany – 75 days, and in Poland – about 60.
“The market must adapt to a new behavioral model. If earlier it was a race for square meters and discounts, today it is a test of reputation, documents, and the logic of development. A new norm is emerging that is quite capable of changing the logic and structure of the new-build market: a thoughtful, rational purchase with elements of financial planning,” Nasikovsky concludes.
The portfolio of the development company DIM consists of real estate in Kiev and the surrounding area with a total area of more than 900,000 square meters. More than 3,600 apartments have been commissioned, and more than 356,000 square meters of residential and commercial space has been built. Six projects with a total area of more than 346,000 square meters are under construction.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/
Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border during the week of June 7-13, with the onset of summer, the end of the school year, and the start of the vacation season, increased by another 3% to 590,000, according to data from the State Border Service on Facebook.
According to the data, the outbound flow increased from 311,000 to 324,000, while the inbound flow increased from 262,000 to 266,000.
The number of vehicles that passed through checkpoints this week increased from 125,000 to 127,000, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo remained at 514.
During the week, the State Border Service reported an increase in passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border and the resulting queues.
“The heaviest traffic is observed at the end of the week and on weekends,” the agency said.
According to the State Border Service, at noon on Sunday, the longest queue of passenger cars at the Polish border was at the Ustyluh checkpoint, with 80 vehicles, while 15 cars were waiting to cross the border at Uzhgorod and Shehyni, and 10 at Krakivets.
At the border with Hungary, there were queues of 20-25 cars at all crossing points – Vylok, Luzhanka, Tisa, Dzvinove, and Kosino.
At the border with Slovakia, 40 cars were waiting to pass inspection at the Uzhgorod checkpoint, and 15 at Maly Berezny.
At the border with Romania, there was a queue of 50 cars at the main crossing point “Porubne.”
The total number of people crossing the border this year is higher than last year: during the same seven days last year, 306,000 people left Ukraine and 268,000 entered, and the flow of cars was also lower – 119,000.
Last year, a significant summer increase in passenger traffic began in the first week of June and lasted for five weeks in a row.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving exceeded the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 137,000.
As Deputy Minister of Economy Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its April inflation report, the National Bank again estimated the outflow from Ukraine in 2024 at 0.5 million (according to the State Border Service – 0.315 million). In absolute terms, this means an increase in the number of migrants remaining abroad to 6.8 million in 2024. The NBU also maintained its forecast for the outflow in 2025 at 0.2 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of May 31, 2025, was estimated at 5.059 million (as of April 17 – 6.358 million), and worldwide – at 5.620 million (6.918 million).
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data at the end of last year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).
In June, Ukraine saw a significant increase in meat prices, while the cost of young vegetables and eggs decreased, according to the food monitoring report by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
Analysts noted that prices for vegetables from the previous harvest continue to rise. The borscht index fell by 12% over the month, but rose by 27% over the year, reaching UAH 196. This is UAH 26 cheaper than last month, when the cost of the dish was UAH 222.
“Vegetable prices are showing seasonal dynamics: new harvest products are becoming cheaper, while old ones are becoming more expensive,” the UACB emphasized.
The retail price of onions reached 40 UAH/kg, which is 33% more than a month ago and 32% more than last year. Old potatoes on supermarket shelves rose in price by an average of 10% over the month, to 38 UAH/kg (+33% over the year). At the same time, new harvest vegetables are appearing on the market, putting pressure on prices. For example, young cabbage fell in price by 66% over the month to 25 UAH/kg (but +64% compared to last year). Cucumber prices continue to fall, down 18% over the month and averaging 65 UAH/kg, which is also 11% cheaper than last year. Tomatoes remain stable at around 99 UAH/kg, but are 12% more expensive than a year ago.
Experts drew attention to the meat market, where changes are most noticeable and prices have risen sharply. In particular, beef (goulash) rose in price by 6% over the month, to 336 UAH/kg (+20% year-on-year). Chicken showed even more rapid growth: fillets rose in price by 11% to 222 UAH/kg (+39% year-on-year), thighs by 28% to 154 UAH/kg (+39%), and carcasses by 25% to 110 UAH/kg (+42%). In contrast, the price of pork neck remained stable at 330 UAH/kg, which is, however, 31% higher than a year ago.
“The significant increase in chicken prices is partly explained by higher feed costs, while beef is becoming more expensive amid limited supply,” the business association explained.
At the same time, the dairy segment has shown stable price dynamics over the past month, which is explained by an increase in the supply of raw materials. For example, milk fell by 2% to 54.3 UAH per 900 ml, cream by 6% to 33.3 UAH per 200 g, and hard cheese rose slightly in price (+1%) to 631 UAH/kg.
According to analysts, prices for groceries also remain stable thanks to sufficient volumes of products on the market and steady demand. For example, sunflower oil fell by 2% to UAH 75.3 per 850 ml, and sugar by 1% to UAH 32.7 per kg.
In addition, there has been a slight decrease in prices for chicken eggs, which in category C1, in particular, fell by 5% over the month to 68.9 UAH per dozen, although in annual terms their cost remains 79% higher.
