IC “Euroins Ukraine”, a subsidiary of the European insurance group Euroins Insurance Group (EIG), in January-June 2025 collected UAH 638,9 mln of insurance premiums, which is by UAH 334,7 mln or 2,1 times more than in the same period of 2024. According to the press-release of the insurer, the largest volume of premiums came to the key direction of the company’s business, automobile insurance – UAH 541,8 mln. According to the MTSBU, in the first half of the year “Euroins Ukraine” took the 4th place in the MTPL market by the number of issued policies (216 thousand).
The volume of indemnities paid to the clients of Euroins Ukraine for 6 months of 2025 amounted to UAH 188,4 mln. On average, the company paid out about UAH 1 mln per day on insured events in the first half of the year.
According to the Chairman of the Board of “Euroins Ukraine” Andriy Yakovenko, good results are the work of the company’s representative offices throughout the country.
IC “Euroins Ukraine” is a universal non-life insurer, working in the Ukrainian market since 1992. The company has 75 representative offices all over the country, has a license for insurance in 16 classes. It actively operates in the segments of auto insurance, medical insurance, property, liability and cargo insurance for private and corporate clients.
IC “Euroins Ukraine” is a member of the Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine, League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine (LIOU) and EBA (European Business Association).
In January-July of this year, Ukrainian mining companies reduced exports of iron ore raw materials (IORM) in physical terms by 8% compared to the same period last year, to 19 million 145,471 thousand tons from 20 million 803,661 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Tuesday, foreign currency earnings from exports of iron ore raw materials decreased by 20.3% during this period, to $1 billion 460.316 million from $1 billion 831.314 million.
Raw materials were exported mainly to China (43.67% of shipments in monetary terms), Slovakia (17.9%), and Poland (16.82%).
In addition, in January-July 2025, Ukraine imported raw materials worth $58 thousand in the amount of 86 tons from Italy (40.35%), the Netherlands (36.84%), and Norway (22.81%), while in the same period last year it imported 771 tons worth $208 thousand.
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine increased its exports of raw materials by 89.8% compared to 2023, to 33 million 699.722 thousand tons, and foreign exchange earnings grew by 58.7%, to $2 billion 803.223 million.
In 2024, Ukraine imported mineral resources worth $414,000 in a total volume of 2,042 tons, while in 2023, 250 tons of these raw materials were imported worth $135,000.
In 2023, Ukraine reduced exports of raw materials in physical terms by 26% compared to 2022, to 17 million 753.165 thousand tons. Foreign exchange earnings amounted to $1 billion 766.906 million (a decrease of 39.3%).
Raw materials worth $135,000 were imported, totaling 250 tons.
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The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) fined the pharmaceutical company Gledfarm LTD (Kyiv) UAH 5.421 million for providing false information about the dietary supplement Sakhnil. According to the AMCU, the information in question claimed that the dietary supplement helps normalize high blood sugar levels and improve carbohydrate metabolism, metabolism, and reproductive function.
The AMCU noted that Gledfarm LTD, while the committee was still conducting its control measures, partially changed the packaging of the dietary supplement Sakhnil, withdrew from circulation the packaging on which the disputed properties were indicated, and also appealed to pharmacies (pharmacy chains) with a request to remove this dietary supplement in this form.
At the same time, the company continued to sell the dietary supplement “Sakhnil” in packaging with the information: “helps improve carbohydrate metabolism,” which is also classified as a violation.
The Ministry of Health of Ukraine, for its part, reported that the above properties are characteristic of medicinal products, not dietary supplements.
Gledfarm LDT LLC is engaged in the wholesale trade and manufacture of pharmaceutical products. The company’s production facility, certified to GMP standards, is located in Sumy. In 2025, the company opened a logistics and production complex in the Kyiv region.
The ultimate beneficiary of the company is Radživ Gupta, co-owner of the pharmaceutical company Kusum Farm.
The number of Ukrainians under temporary protection in Poland increased by 5,600 in June 2025 to 992,500, which is the largest monthly increase among all EU countries (+0.6% per month), according to the analytical center of the international employment company Gremi Personal.
“Over the year, the number of Ukrainians per thousand Poles has increased from 26 to 27. These data indicate that Poland remains attractive to Ukrainians as a place of temporary or even long-term residence. In addition, the European Council’s decision to extend temporary protection until March 4, 2027, gives Ukrainians in Poland more confidence in the future, as well as the opportunity to plan their education, work, or integration into local communities,” said Yuriy Grygorenko, director of the Gremi Personal analytical center.
It is noted that the growth rate of the Ukrainian community has slowed down, but Poland remains in second place in the EU in terms of the number of Ukrainians with this status after Germany (about 1.2 million people) and remains home to 23% of all Ukrainians who have received temporary protection in Europe. In total, according to Eurostat, as of June 30, more than 4.3 million Ukrainian citizens were under temporary protection in the EU.
The center’s analysts also note a decrease in the share of women in the structure of Ukrainian refugees in EU countries from 45.6% to 44.7%, while the share of men, on the contrary, increased from 22.0% to 24.1%.
“The increase in the proportion of men in EU countries may be related to the fact that after the first years of the war, Ukrainian men who were eligible to leave (large families, people with disabilities, elderly men) are more likely to join their families in the EU. In addition, while the first waves of departure were mainly forced and protective in nature (women with children fleeing danger), now more Ukrainians are leaving for economic reasons—to find work or stable living conditions,” Hryhorenko noted.
He also drew attention to the fact that children still account for a high proportion of temporary refugees (over 31%), which in the long term could create risks of some families not returning to Ukraine after the war. “The prolonged presence of a significant number of women and children abroad creates risks of depopulation and the loss of a generation. A gradual increase in the proportion of men may indicate that families are settling in the EU and that their chances of returning to Ukraine after the war are potentially decreasing,” Hryhorenko concluded.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/
Issue No. 1 – August 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
The first ten days of August and the beginning of the second were marked by a number of data and decisions that set the tone for the exchange rate in the coming weeks. As before, external factors dominate, while internal factors mostly generate situational impulses and slight volatility without changing the long-term trend.
International context
UNITED STATES. July inflation slowed to within expectations, with prices rising by 2.7% yoy and core inflation (excluding food and fuel) by 3.1%, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and giving the dollar a brief respite after strong macro statistics in previous periods. The labor market has also cooled: nonfarm payrolls were weaker and unemployment rose, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish scenario for the Fed. Taken together, these factors reduce the so-called USD tightening premium over the next few weeks, at least until the Fed makes clear signals about its future policy.
Eurozone. The flash estimate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) published by Eurostat for July was 2.0% y/y (stable), which preserves the ECB’s argument for gradual cautious easing later this year. The final GDP estimates for the two quarters confirmed weak but still positive growth. For the euro’s future trajectory, this is more of a neutral or moderately negative signal in isolation from other drivers, as there was no hawkish surprise.
The UK sent its own signal to the global currency tone – its central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bp to 4.0%, signaling the start of monetary policy rebalancing by other major economies outside the US and the euro area and creating expectations for a broader rate review, provided that other macro indicators confirm this policy. In general, such processes soften the dollar’s advantage in the basket of global currencies over the next 1-2 months, if the Fed moves in the same direction.
The global energy factor has not yet provided any impetus for key economies to revise their policies. Market expectations for oil prices have not changed dramatically, and current quotes fully reflect the news background of recent weeks: the supply/demand balance does not add to inflationary tensions in the EU, so it is not a factor that would force the ECB to tighten its policy. This will also work against further euro appreciation. The expected trajectory is for a neutral or moderately downward impact on the euro, provided there are no other signals or data that could restrain or reverse the current trend.
Thus, given the current international backdrop, the USD has fewer reasons and drivers to strengthen in the short term, while the EUR is more likely to experience a sideways move.
The key factors in the near term will be the September Fed rate decision and further actions by the central banks of the world’s major economies: the expected convergence of rates in the leading economies reduces the US yield advantage, which means that the dollar’s advantage is melting away, but the euro is not getting its new driver either.
Domestic Ukrainian context
Reserves and interventions. The National Bank of Ukraine’s international reserves remain high, despite the NBU’s significant foreign currency sales and debt repayments. Despite the decline, the reserve cushion remains sufficient to smooth out fluctuations and maintain a controlled exchange rate dynamic.
Inflation. In July, inflation slowed to 14.1% year-on-year (yoy), and for the first time in two years, deflation was recorded at -0.2% on a monthly basis. This reduces short-term price risks and inflationary premiums in the pricing of importers/retailers. For the hryvnia exchange rate, these factors are neutral or moderately calming, as they eliminate the arguments for a sharp “insurance” demand for the currency.
External support is coming in as expected, which supports the basic set of factors for a stable hryvnia scenario. The EU Council’s decision to disburse another fourth tranche of more than €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Facility is an important reinforcement of fiscal stability and FX liquidity for the fall months. This indirectly reduces the risks of hryvnia volatility in the foreign exchange market.
A new step in currency liberalization by the NBU is a positive signal of stable expectations of the market and the regulator. In early August, the NBU allowed the repatriation of dividends and expanded hedging instruments, as well as simplified a number of technical FX transactions. Structurally, this reduces market risks and improves predictability for businesses without a sharp additional demand for foreign currency, which also removes pressure on the exchange rate.
The Ukrainian market is entering the second half of August with a preserved exchange rate consensus: reserves are sufficient, external financing is confirmed, inflation has cooled, and liberalization is dosed and managed. Domestic factors will continue to give short bursts, but the overall direction will still be determined outside Ukraine – by international data and decisions, primarily those of the US and the EU.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior – calm and narrow corridor
In general, the Ukrainian FX market is in a calm phase: international factors do not provide drivers for sharp changes, while the NBU’s measured interventions and liberalization keep market volatility and manageability low. Domestic demand is not driven by hype or accumulative drivers, importers act as planned without provoking abnormal surges, and market operators’ “insurance” margins are smaller or practically absent in the UAH/USD quotes.
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior – reflection of the euro to hryvnia exchange rate on external factors
After a long, smooth slide in the buy range of 47.85 to 47.75 and sell range of 48.65 to 48.45, the exchange rate rebounded sharply on 13-14 October: buy range of 47.90 to 48.20 and sell range of 48.50 to 48.85. The official NBU exchange rate rose by a one-day jump from 48.0758 to 48.6472, up UAH 0.58.
A steady downward trend was observed for thirty days, which was interrupted by a corrective recovery on August 13-14.
For most of the period, market rates were equidistant from the official one (the classic corridor), and the bid/ask spread remained at ~0.50-0.70 UAH/€, a sign of stable expectations and lack of nervousness.
The recorded rebound was the result of an external impulse (movement in the EUR/USD pair on the global market after the US statistics) and was quickly reflected in the EUR/UAH market quotes.
Such episodes do not indicate an imbalance, but only the expected technical alignment between the external and internal markets without changing the overall trend – data from the US and eurozone statistics allowed the EUR to make a technical rebound, but the market has already played off this momentum, so without new significant data from the US or the EU, we should not expect further growth in the euro against the hryvnia.
Domestic demand will also not be able to drive the growth of quotations due to the speculative component of setting rates by market participants – after the overheating of June and July and the exhaustion of effective demand, interest in cash euros has cooled. Importers are acting in a planned manner, which smooths out the overall pressure on the market and helps to normalize spreads.
Forecast.
Recommendations: act in ranges, keep liquidity, hedge risks
Key universal ideas:
– On the short term: USD has fewer reasons to strengthen, EUR is more likely to be sideways with technical bounces.
– Liquidity over profitability: keep a stock of free currency for current needs, term instruments only with the option of early access with minimal losses.
– A universal strategy for everyone – flexibility, trenching, hedging.
– Plan in ranges, not points: include exchange rate corridors in your calculations and forecasts, not fixed numbers.
– Keep an eye on spreads: this is now a more important indicator than the exchange rate. Narrowing is the moment to optimize purchases/sales, while widening is a signal to slow down.
– Risk management: Avoid large transactions and fixed commitments, avoid decisions based on emotions after news/social media – in the context of exchange rate calm, the media are trying to “squeeze clickbait out of nothing.”
For private investors and savers:
For speculative operations on USD/UAH & EUR/UAH:
– It’s time for short positions and quick action: record profits regularly in “small portions” and cut losses quickly.
– Watch out for “intersections” between the official and the market: a sudden jump in the official rate and narrowing spreads usually mean a technical lag and a quick “catching up” of the market – an opportunity for short positions / profit taking.
– Take care of liquidity: refrain from transactions or make smaller trades in an illiquid market (narrow choice of profitable offers, wide spreads), do not hold large positions before the release of important news.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to the EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
