According to the results of 2025, Ukraine’s national currency, the hryvnia, remained relatively stable overall, despite pressure from the war, high budget expenditures, and volatility in foreign markets, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Throughout the year, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate showed moderate fluctuations within the established corridor, remaining under the control of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The cash and interbank markets saw short-term surges in demand for foreign currency, mainly during periods of peak budget payments and increased import activity, but these were quickly smoothed out by the regulator’s currency interventions.
According to market participants, the key factors supporting the hryvnia in 2025 were regular inflows of international financial assistance, the preservation of administrative measures of currency regulation, and the NBU’s policy of supporting the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. International reserves also played a significant role, remaining at a level sufficient to cover short-term external obligations throughout the year.
At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate continued to be pressured by the structural external trade deficit, high military and social spending, and uncertainty related to the duration of hostilities and the volume of future external support.
Quotations on the interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH per USD, period from 01.01.2025 to 31.12.2025)
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center, notes that 2025 was a period of “managed stability” for the hryvnia.
“The hryvnia is ending the year without any sharp devaluation shocks, which, in the context of full-scale war and high budget dependence on external financing, can be considered a cautiously positive result. The key stabilizing factor remained the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy with the support of international partners,” he said.
According to him, maintaining control over the currency market has helped to avoid panic among the population and businesses, but in the medium term, the risks for the hryvnia remain high.
“The further dynamics of the exchange rate will directly depend on the volume of foreign aid, the situation on the front lines, and the pace of economic recovery,” Urakin stressed.
Inflationary processes in 2025 also remained one of the sensitive factors for the currency market. Rising consumer prices increased demand for currency from the population, but this effect was partially offset by monetary policy measures and the maintenance of capital movement restrictions.
The NBU has repeatedly emphasized that its exchange rate policy remains flexible and adaptive, and that the regulator’s priority is financial stability and inflation control, rather than achieving formal exchange rate targets.
Experts note that in 2026, the hryvnia’s dynamics will largely depend on the pace of economic recovery, the volume of international aid, and decisions on further currency liberalization.
Over the next two weeks, Ukraine and its partners will work out in detail what sources of funding can be allocated for the implementation of the Ukraine prosperity plan, which is being developed as part of the peace agreement, how much of this funding can come from public sources, and how much can be financed by the private sector, said Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Oleksiy Sobolev.
“The $800 billion (total amount of the Ukraine Prosperity Plan – IF-U) comes from both private and public sources. According to our estimates, about $500 billion should come primarily from public sources: in the form of grants, some concessionary loans – that is, both what needs to be repaid and what does not need to be repaid,” Sobolev said at a briefing following the results of the economic block of consultations held in Kyiv on January 3 with national security advisers from 15 partner countries, the European Council, the European Commission, and NATO.
The minister added that at the same time, work will be done to determine which sectors of the economy have enough projects for the next 10 years to attract the private sector, and through which instruments this capital can flow into Ukraine.
According to him, this work has been going on for a long time, with the involvement of the World Bank and the European Union, so preliminary calculations already exist.
“Now we need to agree with all countries on the figures for each sector and overall needs, as well as the sources that can be found over these 10 years,” Sobolev explained.
He noted that there is a desire to attract more funding from the private sector, as this provides additional investment in Ukraine and improves reforms.
“But the private sector comes after there is a security framework, a security guarantee, and macro-financial stability, which requires institutional funds, funds from countries. And when there are reforms, and when there is concession capital, which reduces the risks of working in Ukraine,” the Minister of Economy also noted.
He specified that the next meetings will be held in Paris on January 5 in order to develop a joint plan with the US, European countries, as well as Canada and Norway.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree enacting the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions against 95 individuals and 70 legal entities, most of whom are citizens and residents of the Russian Federation.
The relevant decree of the President of Ukraine No. 8/2026 of January 3, 2026, was published on the website of the Office of the President.
It is noted that the individuals and companies against whom sanctions have been imposed are associated with servicing Russia’s state defense orders and the activities of its defense-industrial complex. Among them are enterprises and their managers who manufacture and supply products in the fields of communications, electronic warfare, and microelectronics for the Russian defense-industrial complex and security forces.
Sanctions have been imposed on industrial enterprises in the chemical, mining, metallurgical, and fuel and energy sectors of the Russian Federation.
“The restrictions imposed should complicate the servicing of the Russian military-industrial complex and limit its capabilities in the production of weapons and military equipment used in the war against Ukraine. Our country will continue to work with partners to synchronize Ukrainian sanctions in the jurisdictions of partner countries. Some of the items will be included in the 20th package of EU sanctions, which is currently being prepared,” the statement said.
Ukraine managed to attract more than $45 billion in international security assistance in 2025, which is the highest figure since the start of the full-scale war, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“Our country managed to attract more than $45 billion in aid, which is the highest figure since the start of the full-scale war and almost 30% more than last year. The key areas of support in 2025 were: weapons and ammunition; development of air defense and missile defense; investments in joint production and procurement for the Ukrainian defense industry; training, repair, technical support, and logistics,” he wrote on Telegram.
According to him, more than $6 billion has been allocated to the development of the Ukrainian defense industry, in particular within the framework of the “Danish model.” Shmyhal noted that Ukraine received almost $3 billion from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets in the EU and the UK. These funds are being used to purchase weapons and develop the defense industry.
“International support for Ukraine is becoming long-term and systematic. This is a guarantee of deterring Russian aggression, strengthening our defense capabilities, and ensuring a just peace in Europe. I sincerely thank each of our partners for this extremely important support,” the head of the defense department emphasized.
From January 1, 2026, the allowance for the birth of the first and each subsequent child will be paid in a lump sum of 50,000 hryvnia.
In particular, on January 1, the law “On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding Support for Families with Children and the Creation of Conditions Conducive to Combining Motherhood (Fatherhood) with Professional Activity” comes into force.
According to the document, the allowance for the birth of the first and each subsequent child is paid as a one-time payment in the amount of 50,000 hryvnia.
Previously, childbirth assistance was set at UAH 41,280, with a one-time payment of UAH 10,320 and the remainder paid in equal installments over the next 36 months.
Earlier, the Ministry of Social Policy, Family, and Unity reported that the new procedure for paying childbirth benefits would only apply to mothers who gave birth after the new rules came into force, i.e., after January 1.
The law also stipulates that a one-time “baby package” benefit (in kind or in the form of monetary compensation) is provided at the woman’s request starting from the 36th week of pregnancy or at a healthcare facility – the day after the child’s birth, or no later than three months from the date of the child’s birth, and is not included in the amount of the benefit.
The transitional provisions of the law also stipulate that in 2026: assistance in connection with pregnancy and childbirth to women who are not insured in the compulsory state social insurance system shall be provided in the amount of UAH 7,000 per month; childcare assistance until the child reaches one year of age shall be provided in the amount of UAH 7,000, and in the case of such assistance being provided for the care of a child with a disability, in the amount of UAH 10,500; Childcare assistance “yeYasla” is provided in the amount of UAH 8,000, and in the case of such assistance being provided for the care of a child with a disability, in the amount of UAH 12,000. One-time cash assistance to first-grade students “school package” is provided in the amount of UAH 5,000.
State assistance to families with children, assigned before this law came into force, is paid in the manner and amount established on the date of assignment, until its full payment is completed.
As reported, on November 14, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law that provides for an increase in a number of payments related to the birth and care of a child. In particular, it provides for 7,000 hryvnia per month in pregnancy and childbirth assistance for women who are not insured and do not have insurance experience; 50,000 hryvnia in one-time assistance for the birth of a child. This is paid once for the first and each subsequent child; 7,000 hryvnia — monthly assistance for childcare until the child reaches 1 year of age.
The Ministry of Social Policy, Family, and Unity has announced that the “єЯсла” program will be launched on January 1, 2026, and the “єСадок” program will start in 2028.
On January 1, 2026, Ukrainian Law No. 4219-IX came into force, changing the procedure for employers to comply with the quota for employing persons with disabilities and introducing quarterly monitoring and a target contribution instead of administrative and economic sanctions.
According to the explanations, instead of an annual calculation, employers must determine the quota on a quarterly basis, and reports on its implementation will be submitted quarterly as part of tax calculations.
The job quota is set for a quarter based on the average number of full-time employees (SKShP): for an ATE of 8 to 25 people – 1 job, for an ATE of more than 25 – 4% of the ATE; for healthcare institutions, rehabilitation institutions, social service providers, and organizations involved in the rehabilitation or training of persons with disabilities, a specialized standard of 2% of the ATE is provided.
In order for an employee with a disability to be counted towards the quota from 2026, the following conditions must be met simultaneously: this must be their main place of work, their calculated salary must exceed the minimum wage, and their working hours must correspond to the normal or adapted duration.
Instead of the previous penalties for non-compliance with the quota, a targeted contribution to support the employment of persons with disabilities is being introduced, the administration of which is entrusted to the tax authorities. The explanations also indicate the financial consequences of violations, including a 7% penalty for late payment, 10% for additional charges (with restrictions), a 0.1% penalty for each day of delay, and a UAH 170 penalty for reporting violations.
