This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.8% in 2025, which is lower than the previous estimate of 2% by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) and the Ministry of Economy’s forecast of 2.2%.
According to the institute’s Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine (MEMU), economic growth was 5.2% in November, but slowed to 3.4% in December amid ongoing Russian attacks on energy and railway infrastructure. Positive dynamics at the end of the year were supported by the contribution of agriculture, where gross value added (GVA) growth was 54% in November and 35% in December, as well as the trade sector (GVA growth was 5.9%), business services, and public services.
“This growth was partly supported by the population’s continued efforts to adapt to regular planned and emergency power cuts,” the IER explains.
At the same time, December saw a significant drop in GVA in the extractive industry — by about 19% (compared to December 2024) due to the negative impact of Russian attacks on gas, ore, and coal production. Electricity and gas production and distribution fell by 18% (compared to December 2024) due to large-scale damage to generation facilities, which led to power outages in the Odesa, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost its external power supply again on January 2.
Real GDP in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.9% in December (compared to December 2024) due to problems with access to electricity, but the decline was mitigated by businesses adapting through the use of generators, cogeneration plants, and solar panels, as well as by defense purchases. In the transport sector, the decline in GDP accelerated to 10% due to massive shelling of ports and railway infrastructure.
In December, the energy sector showed a 53% increase in electricity imports compared to November, to 640,000 MWh, while there were no exports. In total, 762 MW of new gas generation was commissioned in Ukraine in 2025, and the capacity of qualified cogeneration plants exempt from excise tax reached 3.1 GW.
Consumer inflation in December fell to 8% compared to 2024, while compared to November 2025, the consumer price index rose by only 0.2%, which was one of the lowest figures for December since the country’s independence. According to the IER, the slowdown in inflation was facilitated by a good harvest, stable world food and oil prices, as well as moderate consumer demand and high competition among non-food products.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine estimates Ukraine’s real GDP growth for 2025 at 2.2%. According to its information, the economy is growing thanks to domestic trade, construction, thanks to reconstruction projects, as well as the processing industry, in particular, the production of defense products and metallurgy. On the other hand, economic growth was hampered by massive Russian missile attacks on power generation facilities and, for the first time in years of full-scale war, on gas production infrastructure; lower yields of certain crops due to unfavorable weather conditions – a 26.9% decrease in soybean yields, a 15.8% decrease in sunflower yields, a 7.6% decrease in rapeseed yields, and a nearly 14% decrease in sugar beet yields; however, grain yields increased by more than 3%.
The ICU investment group also lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, while in July 2025, the company predicted a 2.5% increase in GDP in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026 due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure, electricity shortages and complications with maritime exports, a gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as businesses delaying investments due to high security risks.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of August 2025. The analysis was prepared based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
For Ukraine, the first eight months of 2025 were characterized by the logic of “managed stability”: the economy remained efficient and gradually adapted to military restrictions, but without a qualitative leap in investment. In its review, the NBU noted that in the first half of the year, the economy grew by about 1% quarterly (Q/Q), meaning that the recovery continued but remained moderate.
“In January-August 2025, the key signal is not ”high rates” but the ability of the economy to operate under constant risks. We see a gradual recovery in demand and service sectors, but the investment component is still weak: businesses often choose to repair and replace rather than expand. This means that growth is not yet translating into modernization. The strategic task is to transfer external support and financial stability into long-term projects: energy, logistics, processing, defense technologies,” explains Maksym Urakin.
The inflationary background in the summer of 2025 showed a gradual easing. According to the State Statistics Service, in August 2025, consumer prices decreased by 0.2% mom, and annual inflation (up to August 2024) was 13.2%. Core inflation was estimated at 11.4% yoy; the consumer price index for January-August (to December of the previous year) was +6.0%.
Monetary policy in this period remained tight but predictable: The NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the importance of consolidating the disinflationary trend and controlling expectations. The discussion materials of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee explicitly state the logic behind the rate and the role of interest rate policy in reducing pressure on the foreign exchange market and reserves.
“Inflation in 2025 is not only a monetary story, but also a supply-side story: weather, harvests, logistics, energy restrictions, and the import component. That is why the 15.5% rate is more of a “confidence anchor” than a tool for accelerating growth. The NBU’s task is to prevent expectations from being inflated and people from fleeing to the currency, especially when the trade balance is weak. But at the same time, the government must do its part: stimulate production and competition, otherwise inflationary pressure will return in waves,” emphasizes Maxim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the main channels of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January-April 2025, exports of goods amounted to $13.31 billion (93.1% compared to the same period in 2024), while imports amounted to $24.82 billion (112.6%). This reflected a persistent gap between the need for imports (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves were a critical compensator for trade tensions and military risks. According to the NBU, as of September 1, 2025, the reserves amounted to $46.03 billion, and in August they increased by 7.0%, primarily due to significant receipts from international partners and lower net sales of foreign currency by the NBU.
The debt burden remained high. Public reviews based on the data of the Ministry of Finance stated that as of August 31, 2025, public and publicly guaranteed debt reached about UAH 7.95 trillion (≈ $192.7 billion). Additionally, the specialized resource of the Verkhovna Rada estimated the public debt as of 08/31/2025 at UAH 7.6572 trillion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy was on a low but relatively steady growth trajectory, with different speeds across regions and sensitivity to trade risks and financial conditions.
In the World Economic Outlook update (July 2025), the IMF forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, explaining the revision by better financial conditions and temporary “lead effects” in trade.
At the same time, the World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects (June 2025) estimated that the global economy is “consolidating” at a lower rate of about 2.7% in 2025-2026.
“Global growth in 2025 looks like a balance between resilience and vulnerability: financial conditions have become a little softer, but structural risks – protectionism, energy shocks, debt – have not disappeared. The US is supporting global demand, but remains sensitive to rates and the consumption cycle; Europe is adding slowly; China is keeping up the pace through industry and exports, but domestic demand is recovering unevenly. For Ukraine, this means that we should not rely on “strong external markets” alone. We need high value-added niches where we can be competitive even in a world of slow growth,” says Maksym Urakin.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that in the second quarter of 2025, U.S. real GDP grew by 3.0% at an annualized rate (advance estimate). Among the key factors, the BEA cited a decline in imports and an increase in consumer spending (partially offset by a decline in investment and exports).
Eurozone/EU. According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% qoq in the euro area and by 0.2% qoq in the EU. This reflected a very moderate recovery in economic activity compared to the previous quarter.
China. According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s GDP grew by 5.3% yoy in the first half of 2025, and by 5.2% yoy in the second quarter of 2025. Thus, China maintained its growth rate above 5% on an annualized basis.
India. According to the official press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) was estimated at +7.8% yoy. The indicator confirmed India’s high dynamics against the backdrop of generally moderate global growth.
Turkey. TurkStat reported that Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% yoy in the second quarter of 2025 (according to the chained volume index). This meant an acceleration of annual growth compared to previous quarters, although the structure of demand and foreign trade factors remained important for assessing sustainability.
Conclusion.
For Ukraine, January-August 2025 was a period of relative macrofinancial manageability: inflation slowed to 13.2% yoy in August, reserves grew to $46.03 billion as of September 1, and monetary policy remained tight, keeping the key policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks that can be mitigated not by “stabilization” but only by structural changes – investment, productivity, processing, and higher value-added exports.
“The end of August 2025 shows an important thing: financial stability in Ukraine is holding, but it does not yet guarantee an economic breakthrough. Reserves and international support are a time resource that must be converted into production and infrastructure, not just “plugging the gaps” with imports. If we do not increase our export capacity and domestic investment, external shocks will again become decisive. There is a window of opportunity, but it is measured in years, not months,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1136991.html
Participants in the panel discussion “Connecting Economies: Cross-border Infrastructure and the Power of Partnership” at the Ukraine Recovery Forum in Bucharest emphasized that the development of border infrastructure and joint projects is a key condition for unlocking the economic potential of Ukrainian-Romanian cooperation, especially in the border regions of Chernivtsi and Zakarpattia Oblasts.
The discussion was moderated by Bogdan Bernyage, senior associate expert at the New Strategy Center (Romania). The panel was attended by Gheorghe Șoldan, chairman of the Suceava County Council (Romania), Mykhailo Pavliuk, deputy chairman of the Chernivtsi Regional Council, and Andrii Sheketa, first deputy chairman of the Zakarpattia Regional Council.
According to the participants, the economic partnership between Chernivtsi region and Romania is of strategic importance: Romania accounts for over 20% of the region’s foreign trade turnover. There is significant potential for deepening cooperation in the woodworking industry, where Chernivtsi’s raw material base can be combined with the processing capacities of the Romanian side. Opportunities for the development of joint projects in the fields of IT, tourism, agriculture, and transport were also noted. “Our regions are already closely linked by trade, the next step is to move from simple exports of raw materials to joint production chains,” Pavliuk said.
With regard to Zakarpattia, the participants emphasized that the reconstruction of the region is closely linked to its long-term development and the deepening of ties with Romania. Despite the fact that the region has the longest section of the common border with this country, the border infrastructure remains underdeveloped, and a number of checkpoints operate below their potential capacity. According to Sheketa, targeted infrastructure investments—in roads, rail approaches, and the modernization of border crossing points—are a necessary condition for improving connections between Transcarpathia and Romania and for making fuller use of the opportunities for cross-border cooperation.
Following the discussion, the participants concluded that the development of joint projects and the modernization of border infrastructure could strengthen the economic integration of border regions and create additional opportunities for business and employment on both sides of the border.
Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter relative to the previous three months, according to final data from the country’s statistics office. The estimate matched preliminary data. Analysts on average also did not expect a revision, Trading Economics reported.
The downturn in the economy is being recorded for the first time since the fourth quarter of last year. Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter.
Mexico’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the third quarter. A contraction of 0.2% was previously reported.
The Experts Club analytical center has previously made a video analysis and forecast on the macroeconomy of Ukraine and major countries of the world.
https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=1StxlkcIzQlpF0_q
ECONOMY, economy macroeconomy, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMY, MAXIM URAKIN
The Experts Club analytical center analyzed Albania’s economy for the first 10 months of 2025 and presented its analysis and forecast. Based on the results of the first ten months of 2025, Albania continues to have one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with low inflation, stable currency reserves, and continued growth in tourism, but it faces a slowdown in industrial output and an expanding trade deficit.
According to IMF mission estimates and national statistics, Albania’s real GDP grew by approximately 3.4–3.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, which is comparable to 2024 figures and above the European average. The main drivers of growth remain the service sector, construction, and tourism: foreign tourists alone spent around €2.1 billion in the country in the first six months, which is 7–8% more than a year earlier.
International institutions expect the economy to grow by around 3.4-3.7% by the end of the year: after its autumn mission, the IMF raised its forecast to 3.5% for 2025, while the World Bank and the EBRD also expect growth of over 3%.
Inflation in the country remains low and close to the target level. According to the IMF and national statistics, annual consumer price inflation in 2025 is around 2–2.3%.
The labor market situation is improving moderately. The unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2025 fell to 8.5%, which is significantly below the historical average (around 14%).
Industry remains the most vulnerable sector. According to estimates by research centers and statistics, industrial production in Albania in the first quarter of 2025 declined by approximately 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, while in the second quarter the decline slowed to around 0.5%. Manufacturing output in June 2025 was 0.9% lower than a year ago. This reflects the problems of traditional export industries, primarily textiles and clothing, which are under pressure due to the strengthening of the national currency and demographic outflow.
The external sector remains a weak spot in the macroeconomy. According to Albanian think tanks and INSTAT, the trade deficit in goods widened to about 25.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025, despite high tourism revenues. Remittances from migrants grew by about 5% to €1.2 billion, remaining an important source of external revenue, while foreign direct investment stabilized at around €1.1 billion over the same period.
At the same time, external stability appears comfortable. According to Trading Economics, Albania’s international reserves reached $7.3 billion in September 2025. In its final Article IV statement, the IMF explicitly notes “strong reserves, declining public debt, and one of the highest growth rates in Europe” as a basis for further reforms and deeper integration with the EU.
