Six Ukrainian economic forecasters and analytical teams have been included in the international Best Economic Forecast Awards ranking, published annually by FocusEconomics, based on results for 2025.
Among the Ukrainian participants in the ranking are Dmytro Taranenko and Olena Belan from Dragon Capital, Oleksiy Blinov from Forbes Ukraine and Blinov Forecasting, Vitaliy Kravchuk and Oleksandra Betliy from the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), Hryhoriy Kukuruza from Ukraine Economic Outlook, and the ICU analytical team.
The FocusEconomics ranking covers more than 100 countries worldwide, and for Ukraine, it takes into account forecasts from 32 analytical teams at international banks, research centers, and rating agencies. The winners in each category are the participants whose forecasts proved to be the most accurate.
In the overall ranking for Ukraine, S&P Global Market Intelligence took first place, Dragon Capital second, and Alexey Blinov third. In the GDP forecasting category, Dmitry Taranenko and Elena Belan also took second place, while Vitaly Kravchuk and Alexandra Betliy took third.
In the inflation forecasting category, Taranenko and Belan took first place among analysts in Ukraine, Blinov took second, and S&P Global Market Intelligence took third. In the category of policy rate forecasting, first place went to Alexey Blinov. In the state budget balance forecast category, second place went to the ICU team, while in the balance of payments forecast category, first place went to Grigory Kukuruza, and third place again to Alexey Blinov.
In the exchange rate forecasting category, only foreign analytical centers were among the leaders. This shows that Ukrainian experts are particularly strong in assessing domestic macroeconomic indicators, while international players currently hold the leading positions in currency forecasts.
Industrial producer prices in Ukraine rose by 2.3% in March compared to the previous month of 2026, following a 22.3% increase in February and a 3.5% increase in January, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS).
“In March, the rise in prices was primarily driven by a 4.8% increase in costs in the mining and quarrying sector,” the State Statistics Service noted.
According to the agency’s data, on an annualized basis (compared to March 2025), industrial price growth accelerated to 36.6% by the end of March 2026, up from 34.5% in February and 11.2% in January.
As reported, industrial prices rose by 8.2% in 2025.
ECONOMY, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS, INDUSTRY, State Statistics Service
The global fuel crisis, which has unfolded against the backdrop of the war in Iran, is having a price impact on Ukraine’s economy; however, it will not significantly affect economic activity as long as there is no fuel shortage, according to Natalia Shpygotska, a senior analyst at Dragon Capital.
“We expect GDP growth this year to reach 1.5%. And specifically regarding the fuel crisis, we do not expect rising fuel prices to have a significant impact on economic activity until global turbulence leads to a significant fuel shortage in the country,” she noted during the Center for Economic Strategy’s April economic review, which featured the special topic “How is the fuel crisis affecting the Ukrainian economy?”
“As for inflation expectations, our current year-end inflation forecast is 7.1%. We revised it upward by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous forecast, in part to account for rising fuel prices, as well as our revision of the exchange rate,” Shpygotska added.
According to her, Dragon Capital’s forecast is based on the assumption that in the coming months, the war or hostilities regarding Iran will be suspended, allowing global oil prices to stabilize at a level closer to $70 per barrel. At the same time, if global oil prices remain high for longer and hover around $100 per barrel throughout the year, this will carry the risk of inflation in Ukraine rising by 2 percentage points, “that is, closer to 9%.”
Shpyhotska also noted that the transportation sector was the first to be directly affected by rising fuel prices, particularly the nearly 50% increase in diesel prices, resulting in higher transportation costs for both major economic players and companies providing transportation services.
Although, as the Dragon Capital analyst noted, the rise in prices for transportation services is not yet proportional to the rise in retail diesel prices, it is nevertheless present.
At the same time, she noted that in other sectors, particularly the agricultural sector, where transportation costs account for up to 10% of total expenses, the impact on financial results may not be as significant.
“However, if high oil prices persist longer and we begin to see second-order effects—such as rising prices for fertilizers and other components of production costs, as well as the passing on of higher transportation costs to other goods and services—the long-term impact could be more pronounced,” the analyst noted.
Natalia Kolisnichenko, a senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), reported that according to a survey of businesses and companies, 9% of them did not feel the impact of the fuel crisis, while 66% felt a significant or moderate impact, noting that it was primarily price-related.
“76% reported that their transportation and logistics costs had increased first and foremost, while 53% reported that they had not experienced any disruptions in their operations. This also confirms that the main factor for us right now is price-related. 20% of businesses have already passed on increased production costs to consumer prices, and the rest plan to do so in the near future, as businesses lack the resources to keep prices unchanged,” said the CES senior economist.
According to her, inflationary risks are rising for all goods and services, as they all have a fuel component.
She also added that 24% of the surveyed companies have not yet been able to assess the impact of the fuel crisis.
According to Serbian Economist, Montenegro is entering 2026 with relatively stable GDP growth, but with significant external imbalances and a growing role for fiscal policy as the main instrument of macroeconomic regulation. The country uses the euro as legal tender and is effectively deprived of standard monetary policy tools, so the key challenges for the economy lie in the budget, debt management, and structural reforms.
According to preliminary statistical data, Montenegro’s real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. Estimates from international organizations generally fall within a range of around 3%: the IMF mission, for example, indicated a baseline growth forecast of 3.2% for 2025, attributing this, in particular, to a moderate tourism season.
Prices rose moderately in 2025, but inflationary pressures intensified by the fall. According to MONSTAT, consumer prices in January–November 2025 were on average 3.9% higher than in the same period a year earlier, and in December 2025, inflation stood at 4.0% year-on-year.
According to MONSTAT’s labor force survey, the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2025 stood at 10.1% (with an employment rate of 56.0%). For an economy with a high share of services, this indicates a persistent structural gap between seasonal employment and stable jobs outside the tourist peak.
The IMF expected the general government deficit to widen to 3.6% of GDP in 2025 (after 2.9% of GDP in 2024). At the same time, the debt trajectory appeared manageable throughout the year: according to the Ministry of Finance, total public debt stood at €4.76 billion, or 58.59% of GDP, as of the end of September (compared to 61% of GDP at the end of 2024, according to the same source).
Tourism once again confirmed its status as a key generator of foreign exchange revenue.
The Central Bank reported that in January–November 2025, the number of tourist arrivals rose by 5% year-on-year to 2.67 million, and revenue from foreign tourists over the nine-month period reached €1.328 billion, slightly above the level of the previous year.
But it is the external environment that remains the main source of risk: the IMF expected the current account deficit to widen to approximately 18% of GDP in 2025, attributing this to a decline in electricity exports, signs of a weaker tourist season, and rising import demand.
The baseline scenario for 2026 is sustained moderate growth, provided that fiscal policy offsets external shocks and the economy begins to gradually shift from consumption to investment and diversification. Risks center on the external deficit and fiscal commitments, while opportunities lie in infrastructure projects, the energy sector, and the reforms necessary for European integration.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2441
Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
