The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lowering the interest rates on loans, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency “Economic Monitoring”.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1028834.html
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksim Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Maksim Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
Ukraine’s economy is showing signs of recovery, despite significant challenges from internal and external factors. The global economy, in turn, is also facing uncertainty, but maintains positive growth rates. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Thus, this article provides a holistic view of the current economic situation in Ukraine and the world, based on the latest statistics and forecasts.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club/
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said the founder of Experts Club.
Maksym Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian economy and the global economy are facing uncertainty. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kiev-based information and analytical center Experts Club has published a rating of countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. The ranking considered both economic and political factors that could lead states to default.
As Maxim Urakin, the founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.
“The world economy is facing unprecedented challenges and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. Under such conditions, it is crucial to understand which states are at the greatest risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he emphasized.
State default is a situation when a country cannot fulfill its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maxim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we monitor the economic situation in various countries so closely,” Urakin added.
The Experts Club 2024 ranking of countries with the highest probability of default includes Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and several other countries already facing serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability and political crises.
Experts Club also identified several countries that are at risk in the medium term. Among them are Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high levels of debt, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.
|
Experts Club Rating |
Country |
Current international rating |
| 1. | Argentina | CCC- |
| 2. | Ghana | in default |
| 3. | Sri Lanka | in default |
| 4. | Lebanon | in default |
| 5. | Zambia | in default |
| 6. | Pakistan | CCC |
| 7. | Mozambique | CCC |
| 8. | Ukraine | CCC |
| 9. | Ethiopia | CCC |
| 10. | Cameroon | CCC+ |
| 11. | Bolivia | CCC+ |
| 12. | Burkina Faso | CCC+ |
| 13. | Suriname | in default |
| 14. | Tunisia | CCC |
| 15. | Egypt | B- |
| 16. | Nigeria | B- |
| 17. | El Salvador | B- |
| 18. | Honduras | B- |
| 19. | Laos | B- |
| 20. | Venezuela | in default |
“We see that countries like Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressures. Also of concern is the situation in Greece and Italy, which are highly dependent on international loans. The risk of default remains high in these countries,” commented Urakin.
Special attention this year is paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is “in a state of political and economic crisis, with extremely high debt to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to a possible default.
Maxim Urakin also elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he emphasized the high level of external debt relative to GDP, economic instability and dependence on external financing.
“Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100% are particularly vulnerable. Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece are examples. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that depend on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, could face difficulties if conditions in international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
In a commentary on the rating, Maxim Urakin noted that the consequences of a default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, lower credit rating and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, it turns into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment and lower living standards,” the expert explained.
Urakin also emphasized that default may lead to the growth of social discontent and political instability, which may aggravate the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the economic situation in the world and provide timely relevant data to help countries and investors to minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can learn more about defaults and the presented rating from the video on the YouTube channel of Experts Club:
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel by clicking here:
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2024 increased 1.2 times compared to the same period of 2023 – to $10.716 billion from $8.882 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine for the period increased by 1.7% to $16.832 billion compared to January-May 2023, while imports increased by 8.3% to $27.548 billion.
State Statistics Committee specified that in May compared to April this year, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 1.3% to $3.442bn, while imports decreased by 3.9% to $6.089bn.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in May-2024 was negative at $2.647bn, while in the previous month it was also negative at $2.850bn.
The export-import coverage ratio for the first five months of 2024 amounted to 0.61 (0.65 in January-May 2023).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 220 countries.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
In the Southeast Asian region, Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward Japan and South Korea. This is evidenced by the results of a joint study by the Experts Club think tank and the Active Group research company, presented at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“Our research has shown that in East Asia, Ukrainians are most supportive of Japan and South Korea. Attitudes toward these countries largely depend on their support for Ukraine after the war began. In the Caucasus region, a positive attitude toward Georgia remains. Also, more than 50% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards Kazakhstan. The lowest level of support was recorded for such countries as the DPRK, Syria, and Iraq,” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the Active Group research company.
According to the expert, the negative attitude of Ukrainians toward China is also quite eloquent.
“Only 4% of citizens have a positive attitude toward China, 16.7% have a mostly positive attitude, 58.8% have a negative attitude, and 20% have not decided. Currently, China’s position is not entirely unambiguous in relation to Ukraine, which is reflected in the attitude of Ukrainians,” Mr. Poznyi emphasized.
In his turn, Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank and deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, presented an analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade with a number of Asian countries based on data from the State Customs Service for 2023.
“The largest market for Ukrainian goods in Asia is China – more than $2 billion. India ranks second, followed by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Iraq, and Indonesia. As for imports, China is also the largest importer to Ukraine, with more than $10 billion. It is followed by India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. In terms of total trade between Ukraine and these countries, China is also the leader, with almost $13 billion. India ranks second – 2.5 billion, followed by Japan – almost a billion,” said Urakin.
According to him, the analysis of economic data shows that Ukraine has significant trade ties with the countries of the Middle East and East Asia. At the same time, China remains one of our country’s largest trading partners in terms of both exports and imports.
“The problem of trade deficit remains, as Ukraine spends a lot of money on imports, while earning little on exports. This is a real problem. In 2023, Ukraine’s trade deficit with all countries is over $27 billion. The deficit with China is $8 billion. Among the countries represented today, we have a positive balance only with Iraq – almost $200 million in favor of Ukraine, Georgia – $100 million, and Armenia – $54 million,” Urakin added.
Chairman of the Ukrainian-Arab Business Council, member of the Council of National Communities of Ukraine Dr. Emad Abu Alrub emphasized that the importance of Ukraine’s relations with the countries of Asia and the Arab world cannot be overestimated, and Ukraine is currently taking important steps to develop these relations.
“Ukraine has significant opportunities in the markets of Arab countries, which have a total population of over 550 million. Arab countries are a permanent market for our goods. After 2014, new markets opened up for our country, especially in Asia. The Ukrainian Arab Business Council is actively working to develop these relations. We need to create a strategic plan to improve relations at the level of economy, politics, and culture. We have significant chances for success, but we need better communication and marketing,” emphasized Dr. Abu Alrub.
He also added that Saudi Arabia is interested in cooperating with Ukraine by investing not only in trade, but also in agriculture, technology, and other projects. Other interesting countries are the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. All of them also have great potential for investment in Ukraine.
In conclusion, Maksym Urakin called on foreign embassies to be more active in establishing communication with Ukrainian society.
“If you can, please provide information to journalists about what you are doing here, how you are helping in the humanitarian sphere. Through these ties, we will deepen our cooperation, because the way Ukrainian citizens view your countries also depends on your work,” he concluded.
ACTIVE_GROUP, ALEXANDER_POZNYI, EAST_ASIA, ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, MAXIM_URAKIN, MIDDLE_EAST, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY
