During its spring offensive, Russian forces took control of one of Ukraine’s most promising lithium deposits — the Shevchenkivske site in Donetsk region. Previously under development by an American critical minerals company, the site was seen as a key asset in the growing economic partnership between Kyiv and Washington in the field of strategic resources. Its capture now poses serious risks to future joint projects and has already raised concerns among Western investors.
The Shevchenkivske deposit contains significant reserves of spodumene — a mineral from which lithium is extracted. Lithium is essential for manufacturing batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Ukraine had earlier signed a framework agreement with the United States on cooperation in the field of critical raw materials, including the development of domestic lithium, titanium, and rare earth element extraction — crucial for the West’s green energy transition. The agreement envisioned attracting investment into Ukrainian subsoil resources. However, with Shevchenkivske now under Russian control, the feasibility of that cooperation is under threat.
Myroslav Zhernov, the director of the company holding the license for the site, confirmed the loss in a comment to The New York Times. According to him, the battle for the deposit lasted several weeks: “It was very hot. They were bombing with everything they had. And now they’re there.” Zhernov warned that this may not be the end: “If the Russians advance farther, they will control more and more deposits.”
The New York Times reports that signs of activity have already been observed on the occupied territory: an assessment of reserves is underway, and preparations for future extraction may be in progress. In this way, control over lithium could give the Kremlin not only military but also geoeconomic advantages. The article notes that Russia is already leveraging its influence in global raw materials supply chains, particularly in uranium markets.
Although Ukraine still possesses two other major lithium deposits in its western regions, Shevchenkivske was considered the most promising due to its high spodumene concentration — up to 90%. In peacetime, the development of this site could have become not only a source of revenue, but a strategic lever for integrating Ukraine into Western critical materials markets.
Former head of the State Service of Geology and Mineral Resources, Roman Opimakh, explained that such investments are subject to enormous risks during wartime: “Security and control over a deposit is the main prerequisite. The military threat scares away investors, and the loss of such a site effectively nullifies any near-term development plans.”
Observers note that the war is increasingly taking on characteristics of economic conflict. Russia is not only destroying infrastructure but is actively targeting resources that could be useful to itself or potentially strengthen Ukraine. Gaining control over lithium assets allows for pressure on Western corporations and contributes to reshaping global dependencies.
Despite the loss, Zhernov said his company is not giving up on investing in Ukraine and is exploring other options. However, he admitted the situation has fundamentally changed risk assessments: “Before, we saw this project as a driver of economic growth. Now — it’s just another front in the war.”
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analysis center produced a detailed video analysis of the prospects for rare earth element mining in Ukraine.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of March 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The beginning of 2025 for Ukraine was marked by the continuation of complex but controllable economic dynamics. Amid the ongoing war, uncertainty in external markets, and a growing trade deficit, the Ukrainian economy is demonstrating resilience and gradual adaptation. As Maxim Urakine notes, at the end of 2024, the Ukrainian economy maintained a positive trajectory, although growth rates were more modest than expected:
“Real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024 is, on the one hand, a positive sign of recovery, but on the other hand, it signals that the structure of the economy remains vulnerable. This growth is not based on profound investment changes or technological breakthroughs, but rather is the result of adaptation to extraordinary conditions. We are dealing with an economy that is surviving but not developing in the full sense of the word,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In January–February 2025, consumer inflation remained high. In annual terms, it stood at around 12.6%, remaining close to the level seen at the end of 2024. According to the NBU, price pressures are driven by seasonal factors, higher energy prices, and a weak hryvnia.
Commenting on this trend, Urakin notes that the current level of inflation is not catastrophic, but it does not allow for economic maneuvering. High consumer prices are not only a macroeconomic problem, but also a daily challenge for millions of households. The National Bank is forced to balance between the need to maintain the hryvnia and the impossibility of sharply tightening monetary policy due to the vulnerability of the economy.
The external economic situation at the beginning of 2025 revealed a serious imbalance. In January–February, Ukraine exported $6.29 billion worth of goods, 13% less than in the same period of 2024. Imports, on the other hand, rose to $11.3 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year. As a result, the foreign trade deficit reached $5.01 billion, increasing by more than 76%. The ratio of exports to imports, at only 56%, reveals the economy’s critical dependence on foreign goods and energy resources.
“This gap between exports and imports is not just a figure. It is a symptom of structural fatigue. We are too dependent on imports: this applies to fuel, equipment, and industrial components. And until we start investing seriously in local production and processing, this deficit will only grow. On the other hand, exports are currently sustained mainly by agricultural products. But this is not enough to ensure currency stability and financial autonomy,” emphasized the founder of Experts Club.
Despite trade difficulties, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $40.15 billion at the beginning of March 2025. Although this figure is 6.7% lower than in January, the main reasons for the decline were currency interventions by the NBU and servicing of public debt. The total amount of public and guaranteed debt at the end of February exceeded $147 billion, of which more than $100 billion was external debt.
Maksym Urakyn believes that the government currently remains capable of meeting its debt obligations, controlling the currency market, and pursuing a balanced macrofinancial policy. However, this achievement is fragile. Without further reforms and without the real sector getting back on track, these reserves could quickly melt away.
Global economy
According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, and the forecast for 2025 is 3.2%. However, these figures mask significant regional differences.
According to BEA estimates, the US economy contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since early 2022. The main factor was rapid growth in imports amid fears of new tariffs, which significantly increased the trade surplus. Inflation, according to the latest data, stood at 2.3% (CPI) and 2.6% (core PCE) in April, the lowest levels in recent years. The Federal Reserve is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5%, waiting to see if things calm down before easing.
The IMF forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.0% for 2025, although the official target is around 5%. The current low inflation indicates weak domestic demand and the need for structural reforms. In March, at the session of the National People’s Congress, the government announced plans to stimulate the economy through consumer support and reforms, but no clear impetus for the real estate market has yet been provided.
According to the EC’s spring forecast, GDP growth in the European Union will be 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in the eurozone. Official statistics for the first quarter showed growth of +0.6% compared to the previous quarter, the best result since 2022. Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline, standing at 1.9% year-on-year in May.
The British economy is showing signs of recovery: GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter and by 1.2% compared to a year earlier, with a slight increase of 0.2% in March. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that inflation will reach 3.2–3.5% in 2025, falling to the target of 2% only in 2027. The Bank of England has already lowered its base rate from 5.25% to 4.25% and is expected to take two more steps during the year.
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Turkey’s economic growth is estimated at 2.3%, with annual growth of around 3.0%. Inflation fell to 38–39% in March but remains extremely high and continues to be a priority issue for the Turkish Central Bank.
The Indian economy is showing one of the highest growth rates: GDP in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 7.4% year-on-year, confirming that India remains one of the leaders among large countries. Inflation remains under control: in February, CPI was 3.6% and core CPI was 4.1%.
The Brazilian economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace: in March, activity was +3.5% y/y, and in the first quarter, +1.3% q/q, the highest figure in two years. BBVA and OECD forecasts point to a slowdown in growth to 1.6–2.1% in 2025. Inflation in March was 5.48%, the highest level since February 2023, raising concerns about the stability of economic policy.
“The global economy is showing a clear divide: the US is on the brink of recession due to imports and trade uncertainty, but inflation is falling. The EU is struggling with low growth and deflationary risks. The UK is trying to avoid stagnation, although inflationary risks remain. China is in a phase of structural decline and needs reforms. India is a striking example of rapid growth thanks to rural demand and industry. Turkey is once again on the brink of crisis due to inflation. Brazil is stable but vulnerable to inflationary pressures. Ukraine needs to choose a strategy against the backdrop of these global trends: either adapt or risk remaining on a marginal trajectory,” Maxim Urakin concludes.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 is one of cautious stability against a backdrop of growing external challenges. Moderate GDP growth, high inflation, worsening trade imbalances, and stable reserves all contribute to a complex but manageable landscape. Meanwhile, the global economy is showing mixed dynamics, opening up new opportunities for countries that are able to quickly adapt and modernize their economic models.
“For Ukraine, 2025 is a time of transition from mobilization to transformation. If we focus on industrial revival, digitalization, export-oriented clusters, and protection of domestic producers, then the country will be able to embark on a new trajectory of sustainable growth,” concludes Maxim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080355.html
Ukraine’s negative foreign trade balance in goods in January-April 2025 increased by 48.5% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching $11.512 billion from $7.755 billion, according to the State Statistics Service (Gosstat).
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine during the specified period compared to January-April 2024 decreased by 6.9% to $13.312 billion, while imports increased by 12.6% to $24.824 billion.
The statistics agency specified that in April 2025, compared to March 2025, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 4.4% to $3.369 billion, and imports decreased by 2.3% to $6.529 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in April 2025 was negative at $3.161 billion, as it was in the previous month at $3.163 billion.
The export-to-import coverage ratio in January-February 2025 was 0.54 (in January-April 2024, it was 0.65).
The State Statistics Service reported that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 217 countries around the world.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video analysis of the Ukrainian and global economies, more details here –
https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=0Cstf1AY9xZ4Dxxx
Karol Nawrocki, candidate from the Law and Justice party, has won the second round of the presidential election in Poland, according to Gazeta Wyborcza.
According to the Polish National Electoral Commission, after 100% of the votes were counted, he received 50.89%.
It is noted that his opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, received 49.1% of the vote.
A week before the election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called presidential candidate Nawrocki’s statement that Poland would never support Ukraine’s accession to NATO treason.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis dedicated to the most important elections in the world in 2025. For more details, see here — https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=6L76qeuNamxg6py1
ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, Karol Navrotsky, POLITICS, PRESIDENT OF POLAND, URAKIN
Voting in the presidential election began in Romania at 7:00 a.m. on Sunday. The second round features George Simion, representative of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, and Nicușor Dăncilă, the incumbent mayor of the capital Bucharest, who received the most votes in the first round on May 4.
“We voted so that only Romanians decide our future, for Romanians and for Romania,“ Simion told reporters outside a polling station.
“We decide what kind of country we want to be: a country of hope, dialogue, and development,” Dănălescu wrote on Facebook.
According to Reuters, despite the fact that 38-year-old Simion won 41% of the vote in the first round and 55-year-old Dan only 21%, opinion polls show that they have almost equal chances of winning, or show a slight advantage for Simion. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis dedicated to the most important elections in the world in 2025. For more details, see here —
Following the signing of a cooperation agreement between Ukraine and the US in the field of mineral resources, the world community’s attention has been focused on Ukraine’s potential for rare earth element (REE) extraction. These elements are critical for modern technologies, including the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense equipment. However, experts caution against excessive optimism about the rapid realization of this potential.
Volodymyr Khaustov, scientific secretary of the State Institution “Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,” honored economist of Ukraine, and candidate of technical sciences, shared his vision of the prospects for REE mining in Ukraine.
“Ukraine does indeed have certain reserves of rare earth elements, but most of them were explored during the Soviet era, and this data needs to be updated. In addition, a significant portion of potential deposits are located in areas currently under Russian control or near the combat zone,” Khaustov noted.
The expert also highlighted the technological and infrastructural challenges associated with the extraction and processing of REEs.
“Even if we can gain access to these deposits, the question of their economic viability arises. REE extraction is a complex and expensive process that requires modern technology and significant investment. At present, Ukraine does not have the necessary infrastructure for the full cycle of extraction and processing of these elements,” he explained.
It should be noted that, according to research, only one of the six known REE deposits in Ukraine — Novopoltavskoye in the Zaporizhzhia region — has confirmed reserves and is open for licensing. However, even this deposit requires an investment of about $300 million for full development.
In addition, the global REE processing market is currently dominated by China, which controls about 90% of the world’s capacity for the purification and processing of these elements. This creates additional challenges for countries seeking to develop their own REE production.
“For Ukraine to become competitive in the global REE market, it is necessary not only to develop deposits, but also to create a complete value chain — from extraction to processing and manufacturing of end products. This requires strategic planning, significant investment, and time,” Khaustov emphasized.
In conclusion, although Ukraine has potential in the field of rare earth element extraction, realizing this potential requires a comprehensive approach, significant resources, and time. Experts call for cautious optimism and strategic planning to achieve success in this industry.
For more details on the prospects for rare earth extraction in Ukraine, watch the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHeBfpywpQc&t
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ECONOMY, EXPERT, EXPERTS CLUB, INDUSTRY, rare earth elements, rare earths, Volodymyr Khaustov
