Unlike most other EU countries, Spain’s economy is showing steady growth in 2025, despite external challenges and internal structural constraints.
Key macroeconomic indicators for 2025
GDP growth: According to the European Commission’s forecast, GDP is expected to increase by 2.3%.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to decline to 2.2%.
Unemployment rate: Unemployment is forecast to decline to 11.0%.
Budget deficit: The deficit is expected to fall to 2.6% of GDP.
Public debt: Debt is expected to fall to 101.3% of GDP.
Spain’s economic growth in 2025 is supported by the following factors:
Domestic demand: Increased consumer spending and investment are contributing to economic growth.
Tourism: The tourism sector continues to recover, contributing positively to GDP.
Investment: Improved financing conditions and the implementation of projects under the Recovery and Sustainability Plan are stimulating investment activity.
Risks and challenges
Despite the positive trends, certain risks remain:
Geopolitical instability: Trade tensions, particularly with the US, could have a negative impact on exports.
Political fragmentation: Domestic political instability could slow down the adoption of necessary economic reforms.
Structural problems: High unemployment, especially among young people, and low labor productivity remain pressing issues.
Forecast for the end of 2025
The Spanish economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a more moderate pace. Key forecasts for the end of the year:
GDP growth: Around 2.3%.
Inflation: Decline to 2.0%.
Unemployment: Decline to 10.7%.
Thus, despite the existing challenges, the Spanish economy is demonstrating its ability to grow sustainably and adapt to changing conditions.
The Experts Club think tank has analyzed the state of the French economy and provided its forecasts for the whole of 2025. At the beginning of 2025, the French economy is showing signs of slowing down due to internal and external factors, including the escalation of trade disputes with the United States.
Current economic indicators
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), France’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. This modest growth was mainly driven by inventory accumulation in the chemical, pharmaceutical, and agro-industrial sectors, which added 0.5 percentage points to GDP. However, domestic demand remains weak, with consumer spending stagnating and business investment declining by 0.1%. Foreign trade also had a negative impact, reducing growth by 0.4 percentage points due to a 0.7% decline in exports and a 0.4% increase in imports.
Impact of US trade tariffs
The introduction of new tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump, including a 25% duty on cars, steel, and aluminum, is putting significant pressure on France’s export-oriented industries. Companies such as Airbus are looking for ways to circumvent these tariffs, for example by delivering aircraft to US airlines via third countries.
The French government has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing uncertainty in global trade. The Bank of France has also confirmed this forecast, noting that growth remains positive but is slowing compared to previous years.
Forecast for the end of 2025
Economists expect France’s economic growth to remain weak in the second half of 2025, with a possible improvement in 2026. The main risk factors remain ongoing trade disputes with the US and domestic political uncertainties. However, France is committed to maintaining economic stability through fiscal measures and stimulating domestic demand.
In 2025, Germany’s economy continues to face serious challenges. After two consecutive years of GDP decline (0.3% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024), the current year is characterized by stagnation, with GDP growth forecast at 0.0%. This makes Germany the only G7 country that has not shown economic growth in the last three years.
The new government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is due to take office on May 6, is expected to present a package of measures to stimulate the economy. These include
Economists predict a moderate recovery of the German economy in 2026 with GDP growth of around 1.0%. However, the successful implementation of these forecasts will depend on the new government’s ability to effectively address internal and external challenges.
In January-March 2025, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine grew by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Monthly Economic Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The indicators for GDP, industry, construction and a number of other sectors of the economy published by the State Statistics Service allowed the IER experts to refine the estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to our estimates, real GDP grew by 1.2% in January and 0.7% in February,” the IER press service said on Tuesday.
It is noted that better access to electricity in March and a gradual increase in demand were the main reasons for a certain improvement in the economic situation in March. According to the IER, real GDP grew by 1.3% in March.
Value added in agriculture declined by about 3% y-o-y in March, which is in line with the revised estimate for February. The IER explained that this was mainly due to a decline in livestock production in households. As before, the advance of Russian troops led to a decrease in production near the front line.
“According to our estimates, real gross value added (GVA) in industry grew by 2.5% yoy in March, slightly faster than the revised 1.8% in February. Moderate growth in domestic demand and exports supported the increase in production, although Russian attacks continued to have a negative impact on economic activity. For example, in March, attacks on such major cities as Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Kharkiv intensified,” the Institute added.
Production in the mining industry in March, according to the IER, decreased by more than 3% compared to March 2024, primarily due to the temporary occupation of several coal mines in Donetsk region by Russian troops and attacks on gas production. Real GVA in the electricity sector decreased by almost 5%, due to Russian attacks.
The IER emphasized that it also revised its estimate of growth in trade to 0.7% in February (compared to February-2024). The organization hopes that in March, growth will remain close to the same level – 1.2%.
“This will continue to reflect the trend of increasing the share of direct sales in trade, which leads to a decrease in wholesale turnover. According to our estimates, real GVA in transportation in March declined by 6%, which is close to our revised estimate for February. A deeper slowdown in rail freight transportation due to cyberattacks offset slightly faster growth in other transportation segments. The impact of the suspension of gas transit also remained,” the IER emphasized.
As for inflation, the IER estimates its growth at 14.6% yoy in March compared to 13.4% in February. One of the main factors behind this acceleration was a 45% increase in average egg prices compared to the low base of last year, while in February prices were close to last year’s levels (2% higher than in the previous year). However, inflationary pressures were also supported by traditional factors, such as rising labor costs, higher costs of stable energy supplies, last year’s poor harvest, and the approximation of domestic prices for a number of agricultural products to world prices (due to the removal of export barriers that previously kept domestic prices lower).
As reported, the NBU has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth this year to 3.1% from 3.6% in its previous January macroeconomic forecast, next year from 4.0% to 3.7%, and in 2027 from 4.2% to 3.9%.
According to First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko on March 18, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in January-February 2025 is estimated at 1.1%.
Earlier, on February 28, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.) from its previous forecast to 2-3%. Also, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecasts for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2025 from 4.7% to 3.5%, the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%, and the National Bank of Ukraine from 4.1% to 3.6%, but the state budget for 2025 is based on a 2.7% GDP growth forecast.
In addition, ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth from 3.4% to 3% in 2025.
The Index of Economic Expectations of Investors and Analysts in Germany for the next six months, calculated by the ZEW Research Institute, fell to the lowest since July 2023 of minus 14 points in April from the highest since February 2022 of 51.6 points a month earlier. This is the most significant drop since March 2022. Analysts on average expected it to decline to 9.5 points in April, according to Trading Economics.
“Global uncertainty has increased dramatically, not only because of the possible effects of the [US] mirror duties on world trade, but also because of the dynamic nature of their changes,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. ”This is especially affecting export-intensive industries such as the automotive and chemical industries, as well as the production of metals, machinery and steel, which have recently seen significant improvements.
Meanwhile, the indicator of attitudes toward the current situation in Germany increased to minus 81.2 points this month from minus 87.6 points in March.
In the eurozone, the index of economic expectations in April fell to the lowest since December 2022, minus 18.5 points from 39.8 points a month earlier. The experts’ forecast for this indicator was 14.2 points.
The indicator for assessing the current economic situation in the currency bloc decreased by 5.7 percentage points to minus 50.9 points.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/index-ekonomichnyh-ochikuvan-investoriv/
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy for January-December 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Such key aspects as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends were considered.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance
Ukraine’s economy showed moderate growth in 2024 despite ongoing challenges related to war and external economic factors. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year . Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 7.66 trillion, with a deflator at 12.3%.
“Despite the challenges associated with the war and unstable geopolitical situation, Ukraine has managed to hold macroeconomic stability. GDP growth of 2.9% is a signal of economic recovery and investor confidence,” Maksim Urakin noted.
Inflation remains a significant problem for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 11.2% in November . Consumer prices rose by 1.4% in December compared to November.
“The rise in inflation is a worrying signal. It is the result not only of internal factors, but also of external pressures: rising import prices, energy risks, as well as exchange rate fluctuations. The policy of the National Bank will play a crucial role in stabilizing the situation,” the expert explained.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period of 2023, reaching $25.239 billion . Exports rose 16.5% to $38.423 billion and imports rose 11% to $63.662 billion.
“The increase in the negative trade balance suggests that imports are outpacing exports. Ukraine should focus on expanding its export potential and supporting strategic industries: agro-industrial complex, IT and machine building,” Urakin emphasized.
Ukraine’s international reserves reached $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, having increased by 9.7% in December.
“This is a positive signal. Reserves are growing due to receipts from international partners. This ensures macro-financial stability and stability of the hryvnia,” the expert said.
Global economy
According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth in 2024 amounted to 3.2% . However, geopolitical instability, trade wars and slowing growth in key economies continue to put pressure on the outlook.
“The global economy is recovering but remains vulnerable. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates and lower consumer demand in developed countries are the main factors of instability,” said Urakin.
The U.S. economy showed stable growth. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, helped by a rise in consumer spending
“Strong domestic demand is a driver of the U.S. economy. However, rising debt burdens and expensive credit could slow the momentum in 2025,” the economist said.
The Eurozone economy showed weak growth rates. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter .
India continues to show stable growth. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP grew by 8.2% in 2024.
China’s economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
“China needs to restart domestic consumption. Without demand stimulus, growth may slow down even more,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion
Economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for 2024 show a mixed picture. GDP growth and positive signals in global markets are combined with inflation risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from multiple uncertainties.
“For Ukraine, the key challenges remain structural reforms, increasing exports, modernizing infrastructure and actively attracting investment. This is the key to sustainable economic growth in 2025 and beyond,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
