In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated an increase in foreign trade, but there are still problems that limit its opportunities in international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics, and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, and Yevheniia Lytvynova, president of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, analyzed the trends of 2024 and assessed the development prospects for 2025.
Trade balance: export growth but large deficit
According to experts, the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 reached USD 113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.
Key figures:
Despite the growth in exports, the main problem remains a significant trade deficit. This indicates that the economy is dependent on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and requires finding new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.
“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine is still dependent on imports, especially in the field of technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany
Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s top 10 trading partners in terms of exports:
1. Poland – 4.7 billion dollars
2. Spain – 2.9 billion dollars
3. Germany – 2.8 billion dollars
4. China – 2.3 billion dollars
5. Turkey – 2.1 billion dollars
6. The Netherlands – 1.98 billion dollars
7. Italy – 1.93 billion dollars
8. Egypt – 1.6 billion dollars
9. India – 986 million dollars
10. Moldova – $935 million
“In 2024, Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products due to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be borne in mind that a significant portion of these exports is re-exported via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.
At the same time, China has traditionally been in the lead among Ukraine’s top 10 importers:
1. China – $14.4 billion
2. Poland – $7 billion
3. Germany – 5.4 billion dollars
4. Turkey – 4.72 billion dollars
5. USA – 2.86 billion dollars
6. Italy – 2.27 billion dollars
7. Bulgaria – 2.22 billion dollars
8. India – 1.88 billion dollars
9. Czech Republic – 1.78 billion dollars
10. France – 1.75 billion dollars
Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials
Food products account for the largest share of exports – about $25 billion. Other main products include metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion).
“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value remains abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” emphasized Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel
In 2024, the largest categories of imports were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemicals ($11.7 billion), and energy ($8.9 billion).
“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that companies are actively upgrading production and importing machinery,” explained Maksym Urakin.
New markets: opportunities and obstacles
In 2025, many Ukrainian companies are planning to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively. In particular, a free trade agreement is expected to be signed with Turkey, which will make the country an even more important trading partner.
“Turkey is already one of Ukraine’s top five partners. If the FTA is ratified, we will see an even greater increase in trade turnover,” emphasized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The United States has already begun to impose new duties on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.
“If the US imposes additional duties, it could lead to a chain reaction in global trade, and price increases will affect even Ukraine. Our companies should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” said Maksym Urakin.
What should Ukrainian businesses do?
When it comes to the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts identified the following areas:
1. It is necessary to diversify markets by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of high value-added products.
3. Increase competitiveness by adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.
4. Preparing for changes in global trade by adapting the strategy in response to possible duties and trade barriers.
“We have to learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for changes, the market will be quickly taken over by someone else,” summarized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTERS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
By standard measures such as job and GDP growth and the stock market, the US economy was in excellent shape
Donald Trump keeps saying he inherited a terrible economy from Joe Biden and many Americans believe him, even though that’s not true. During his White House marketing event for Tesla on Tuesday, Trump said the US and its economy “went to hell” under Biden. Last week, in his national address to Congress, Trump said: “We inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare.”
But the truth is that by standard economic measures, the US economy was in excellent shape when Biden turned over the White House keys to Trump, even though most Americans, upset about inflation, told pollsters the economy was in poor shape.
When Biden left office, the unemployment rate was a low 4.1%, and during Biden’s four years in office, the average jobless rate was lower than for any president since the 1960s. Trump has repeatedly railed against the high inflation under Biden, but the fact is that by the time Biden left office, the inflation rate had fallen to just 2.9% – down more than two-thirds from its peak and near the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal.
Stocks tank and egg prices soar under Trump
Not only that, the nation’s GDP growth has been impressive, rising at a solid 3.1% rate at the end of Biden’s term. Ever since the pandemic ended, economic growth in the US has been considerably stronger than in the UK, France, Germany and other G7 nations. Shortly before election day, the Economist magazine ran a story saying the US economy was “the envy of the world” and had “left other rich countries in the dust”.
Trump often says job growth under Biden was terrible, but the fact is that the US added 16.6m jobs during Biden’s presidency, more than during any four-year term of any previous US president. Under Trump, job growth was far worse – during his first four-year term, the nation lost 2.7m jobs overall, making Trump’s presidency the first since Herbert Hoover’s during which the nation suffered a net loss in jobs. The pandemic was largely responsible for this, but even during Trump’s first three years in office, before the pandemic hit, job growth was only half as fast as it was under Biden.
Recently, Trump has repeatedly boasted how his tariffs will bring back manufacturing. Trump fails to note, however, that Biden had considerable success in bringing bring back manufacturing and factory jobs. Under most recent presidents, the US lost manufacturing jobs, but under Biden, the nation gained an impressive 750,000 factory jobs, the most under any president since the 1970s. A big reason for this was that as a result of Biden’s green jobs legislation and the Chips Act to boost semiconductor production, manufacturing investment boomed, more than doubling during Biden’s four years in office.
Biden took considerable pride about how the economy performed under him, even though he failed to persuade most Americans that the it was doing well. In December, Biden wrote: “Incomes are up by nearly $4,000 adjusted for inflation [since he took office], and unions have won wage increases from 25% to 60% in industries like autos, ports, aerospace, and trucking. We’ve seen 20 million applications to start small businesses. Our economy has grown 3% per year on average the last four years – faster than any other advanced economy. Domestic energy production is at a record high.”
Many economists vigorously disagree with Trump’s claim that he inherited a poor economy. Paul Krugman wrote that in January, when Biden left office, the US had what was “very close to a Goldilocks economy, in which everything is more or less just right”. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, had even more glowing words. “President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets,” he said. “The US economy is the envy of the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly post-pandemic than pre-pandemic.”
Trump pays attention to one measure of the economy above all others: how the stock market is doing. During Biden’s four years, Wall Street did very well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 39% and the S&P 500 soared by 55.7%, including a 28% jump during 2024. In contrast, the stock market is down overall since Trump took office as investors have grown alarmed about the president’s tariff war against the US’s trading partners.
To be sure, there were some serious economic problems under Biden. Housing affordability was a major problem, and inflation rose to uncomfortable levels. The spike in prices was caused largely by two factors: the pandemic, which gave rise to worldwide supply chain problems, and Putin’s war in Ukraine, which pushed up food and fuel prices. But Trump, in denouncing Biden on inflation, ignores all that.
As Trump’s trade war spooks the markets and makes nervous CEOs rethink their investment plans, many economists are saying it’s more and more likely the US will stumble into recession this year.
Trump has a long history of refusing to accept blame for mistakes and problems, and by repeatedly claiming he inherited a horrible economy, he seems to be laying the groundwork to blame Biden if the country slides into a painful recession.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/mar/16/trump-biden-economy
The U.S. economy remains strong despite increased uncertainty, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said at an event at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
He reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush to cut the benchmark interest rate further.
“Despite rising uncertainty, the U.S. economy is still in good shape,” Powell said. – We don’t need to rush; we are quite prepared to wait for greater clarity.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Friday that the Fed probably won’t have enough clarity on U.S. economic conditions until “late spring or summer” to continue adjusting monetary policy.
Bostic said it is difficult to predict at this point where the U.S. economy might move given the change in U.S. policy and will wait to see the effects of trade duties, weakening consumer confidence and lower immigration flows begin to be reflected in economic data.
Powell said in his speech that it is “the implications of these changes that will matter for the U.S. economy and monetary policy.”
He added that surveys of homeowners and businesses indicate growing concern about the outlook for the economy.
“We will just have to wait to see how all of this affects future spending and investment,” he said.
Powell also said progress in slowing inflation is likely to continue but will be uneven.
The Fed kept the benchmark rate in a range of 4.25-4.5 percent per annum at the end of its January meeting. The rate was cut by 1 percentage point last year.
The next meeting of the Fed will be held on March 18-19.
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global changes in trade flows continue to affect economic development. Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, noted that Ukraine is showing signs of gradual economic recovery despite the difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
– Agriculture: the recovery in exports and the expansion of sales markets provided an increase of 6.5%.
– IT sector: IT services remained a key source of foreign exchange earnings, showing an increase of 10.4%.
– Construction: thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Amid the ongoing war and global turmoil, Ukraine’s economy is showing both signs of recovery and certain problems that need attention,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, which is higher than in 2024 (12%). This is due to rising food and energy prices. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating between UAH 39-40 per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export earnings.
“The decline in inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but an important task remains to increase the level of household incomes to compensate for the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
In January 2025, Ukraine’s exports increased to $3.1 billion, driven by shipments of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy and equipment. The negative balance of foreign trade remains.
“Export dynamics show that Ukrainian companies are actively looking for new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin said.
In January 2025, the state budget revenues of Ukraine amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more than in January 2024, respectively. The main role in this was played by revenues from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international assistance. Ukraine’s international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. However, it is important to lay the foundation for independent economic growth now,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown are the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in the financial markets and a decline in global demand.
THE UNITED STATES: The economy is showing moderate growth at 2.3%, driven by robust domestic demand and investment in innovative industries.
European Union: The growth rate remains low at 1.1% due to the ongoing energy crisis and problems in the industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, due to the real estate crisis and a decline in exports.
India: Stable growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the fastest growing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are related to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies are better able to cope with these challenges,” – Mr. Urakin said.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to be under pressure, with an average gas price of €67 per MWh, due to persistent supply shortages.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export capacity of developing countries.
Central banks in major economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps to reduce inflation.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks associated with inflation, foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid remain. The global economy is slowing down, which creates additional challenges for emerging market countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential and strengthening its domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome the current difficulties and create the basis for long-term growth,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Ukraine’s economy demonstrates steady but uneven growth amid ongoing challenges caused by the war, inflationary risks, and global instability.
GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January-October 2024. The growth rate slowed slightly compared to the first months of the year due to the impact of external economic factors and a decline in exports.
“The Ukrainian economy demonstrates strength and adaptability even in the face of large-scale challenges. However, for sustainable development, it is necessary to continue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and supporting exports,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be one of the key issues. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, annual inflation was 9.1% in October, accelerating from 8.5% in September. The main factors behind the price increase were higher energy prices, hryvnia depreciation and high logistics costs.
“Inflation puts pressure on the consumer spending power of the population. It is important that the government pays more attention to tools to curb price growth, including support for national production and the development of the domestic market,” Urakin emphasized.
Foreign trade
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 6.4% over ten months compared to the same period last year and amounted to $22.1 billion. Exports decreased by 4.8%, especially for agricultural products and metallurgy, while imports increased by 3.2%, mainly due to purchases of fuel and industrial equipment.
“Ukraine needs to develop export channels more actively, diversify its sales markets and support its producers. This will help to balance the trade deficit and strengthen its position in international markets,” Urakin added.
State budget and reserves
State budget revenues in January-October amounted to UAH 1.91 trillion, which is 12% higher than in the same period of 2023. However, a significant portion of the revenues was provided by international financial assistance. In October, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 6.7% to $37.2 billion, due to the repayment of external liabilities and a decrease in foreign exchange earnings.
Global economic situation
The global economy continues to face uncertainty caused by high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the weakening of key economies.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is in line with forecasts but below the average of recent decades.
USA – the economy grew by 2.5%, supported by high domestic consumption and investment.
Eurozone – growth was 0.8%, due to the recession in Germany and a slowdown in industrial production.
China – GDP grew by 4.6%, but the economy is facing problems in the real estate sector and a decline in exports.
India – remains one of the leaders of growth, showing a 6.9% economic recovery.
“The global economy is balancing between recovery and new challenges. In the coming months, geopolitical instability, energy price fluctuations and financial constraints due to high interest rates will remain the main risks,” – Mr. Urakin noted.
Global trends:
1. Financial markets remain volatile as central banks in leading countries are in no hurry to cut rates.
2. The energy crisis in Europe continues to put pressure on the economy.
3. Rising commodity prices, including oil and gas, are affecting inflationary processes around the world.
Ukraine’s economy has shown moderate growth in the first ten months of 2024, but faces challenges in the form of inflation, trade imbalance, and pressure on the state budget. The global economy remains exposed to risks associated with the high cost of borrowed funds and the slowdown in key countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue reforms aimed at supporting business and attracting investment. This is the only way to ensure long-term economic stability and create a solid foundation for future growth,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
Economic development forecasts for the Netherlands for 2025 point to moderate growth, driven by domestic demand and investment.
According to the forecasts of the Central Planning Bureau of the Netherlands (CPB), after an expected modest economic growth of 0.6% in 2024, the country’s GDP could increase by 1.6% in 2025.
According to the Central Bank of the Netherlands (DNB), inflation in the country in 2025 is projected at around 3% per year, which is higher than the eurozone average.
In 2025, the Dutch government plans revenues of €425.1 billion and expenditures of €457 billion, which will lead to a budget deficit of about 2.5% of GDP, which is in line with European Union standards.
The Netherlands’ exports, which are a key driver of the economy, are expected to reach €70.5 billion in 2025.
According to forecasts, the growth of housing prices in the Netherlands will slow down from 13% in 2024 to 8-10% in 2025 and 6-8% in 2026.
Economic growth in the Netherlands may be at risk if trade conflicts escalate, especially between the United States and the European Union. The possible imposition of high import duties and retaliatory measures could negatively affect the country’s exports and investments.
In general, the outlook for the Dutch economy in 2025 remains positive, but the country should be prepared for possible external challenges and adapt its policies to the changing global economic situation.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/forecast-economic-development-neder/
