In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated an increase in foreign trade, but there are still problems that limit its opportunities in international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics, and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, and Yevheniia Lytvynova, president of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, analyzed the trends of 2024 and assessed the development prospects for 2025.
Trade balance: export growth but large deficit
According to experts, the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 reached USD 113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.
Key figures:
Despite the growth in exports, the main problem remains a significant trade deficit. This indicates that the economy is dependent on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and requires finding new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.
“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine is still dependent on imports, especially in the field of technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany
Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s top 10 trading partners in terms of exports:
1. Poland – 4.7 billion dollars
2. Spain – 2.9 billion dollars
3. Germany – 2.8 billion dollars
4. China – 2.3 billion dollars
5. Turkey – 2.1 billion dollars
6. The Netherlands – 1.98 billion dollars
7. Italy – 1.93 billion dollars
8. Egypt – 1.6 billion dollars
9. India – 986 million dollars
10. Moldova – $935 million
“In 2024, Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products due to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be borne in mind that a significant portion of these exports is re-exported via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.
At the same time, China has traditionally been in the lead among Ukraine’s top 10 importers:
1. China – $14.4 billion
2. Poland – $7 billion
3. Germany – 5.4 billion dollars
4. Turkey – 4.72 billion dollars
5. USA – 2.86 billion dollars
6. Italy – 2.27 billion dollars
7. Bulgaria – 2.22 billion dollars
8. India – 1.88 billion dollars
9. Czech Republic – 1.78 billion dollars
10. France – 1.75 billion dollars
Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials
Food products account for the largest share of exports – about $25 billion. Other main products include metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion).
“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value remains abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” emphasized Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel
In 2024, the largest categories of imports were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemicals ($11.7 billion), and energy ($8.9 billion).
“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that companies are actively upgrading production and importing machinery,” explained Maksym Urakin.
New markets: opportunities and obstacles
In 2025, many Ukrainian companies are planning to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively. In particular, a free trade agreement is expected to be signed with Turkey, which will make the country an even more important trading partner.
“Turkey is already one of Ukraine’s top five partners. If the FTA is ratified, we will see an even greater increase in trade turnover,” emphasized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The United States has already begun to impose new duties on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.
“If the US imposes additional duties, it could lead to a chain reaction in global trade, and price increases will affect even Ukraine. Our companies should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” said Maksym Urakin.
What should Ukrainian businesses do?
When it comes to the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts identified the following areas:
1. It is necessary to diversify markets by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of high value-added products.
3. Increase competitiveness by adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.
4. Preparing for changes in global trade by adapting the strategy in response to possible duties and trade barriers.
“We have to learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for changes, the market will be quickly taken over by someone else,” summarized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
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ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTERS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
Greenland ‘s pro-independence supporters have won the local parliamentary elections held the day before, Danish Radio reported on Tuesday.
With 100% of the votes counted, the Demokraatit (Democrats) party became the largest party in the 31-seat parliament, winning ten seats. The party adheres to a liberal ideology and advocates gradual independence. The second place was taken by the Nalerak (“Aspiration”) party, which also advocates the island’s independence. It will be represented in the local parliament by eight deputies.
The left-wing socialist party Inuit Ataqvatigiit (Eskimo Union), which was in power in Greenland before the election, was defeated, receiving only seven seats. Their partners from the Social Democratic Party “Siumut” (“Forward”) will be represented in the new parliament of Greenland by four deputies.
Two more seats were won by representatives of the liberal conservatives from the Atassut (“Solidarity”) party.
Voter turnout in the elections was 70.9%.
Meanwhile, although the Democrats received the largest representation in the new parliament of Greenland, they failed to gain a parliamentary majority of 16 seats, so they will have to start coalition negotiations.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
Polling stations have opened in Greenland, where elections to the local parliament are taking place on Tuesday, the Associated Press reports. Approximately 41 thousand residents of the island are eligible to vote.
The voters will have to choose from several parties, the favorites of which are two – the left-wing socialist Inuit Atakatigiiit (Eskimo Union), which is currently in power, and the social democratic Siumut (Forward).
In addition to them, representatives of the liberal Demokraatit (“Democrats”) party, the centrist Nalerak (“Aspiration”) party, which supports the island’s independence, and the liberal conservatives from the Atassut (“Solidarity”) party are competing for seats in the local parliament.
According to the BBC, a coalition of the Inuit Atakatigiit and Siumut parties currently controls the majority in parliament – 21 out of 31 seats. Both are in favor of independence, but the largest Inuit Atakatigiiit is in no hurry to hold a referendum, while Siumut promises to hold one in the next four years.
The announcement of the initial election results will begin immediately after the polls close, but the situation may be complicated by weather conditions, as a large part of the island is located in the Arctic zone. The time of the announcement of the final election results will also depend on this.
Observers note that the results of these elections should also reveal which way the island’s residents prefer: to remain a self-governing territory of Denmark, to choose a direction towards independence, or to listen to the statements of US President Donald Trump, who suggested that the Danish authorities buy Greenland.
The results of recent pre-election polls conducted by the Verian research company and regional media show that 85% of voters oppose becoming part of the United States, 6% are in favor, and 9% are undecided.
In addition, 60% of respondents are in favor of Greenland’s possible accession to the EU; 40% share the opposite opinion. The same results were shown in the 2021 survey. However, compared to 2021, the percentage of those who support parties that advocate independence from Denmark has now decreased from 80% to 69%.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
Experts club presents the 2024 ranking of all steel-producing countries in the world. The ranking is compiled by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), which updates data for all steel-producing countries on a monthly basis. Below is the production data in million tons, with percentage of production in 2023 in parentheses.
Global steel production continued to perform strongly in 2024, despite fluctuations in demand and the impact of economic factors. China remained the undisputed market leader, producing 1,005.1 million tons of steel, accounting for more than half of the global total. India, which took second place, continues to increase production, reaching 149.6 million tons, while Japan rounds out the top three with 84 million tons, followed by the United States and Russia.
Pro-Russian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu was detained on Wednesday.
“Călin Georgescu was going to submit his new candidacy for the presidency. About 30 minutes ago, the system stopped him on the road and took him to a hearing at the prosecutor’s office! Where is democracy, where are the partners who are supposed to defend democracy?” – reads a message from his communications team posted on Georgescu’s personal Facebook page on Wednesday.
Earlier in the day, he reported massive searches of his supporters, calling the current government a “communist-bolshevik system,” and called on everyone to gather for a protest on Victory Square in Bucharest on Saturday, March 1.
As reported, Georgescu became the leader of the first round of elections held in the country on November 24, with 22.94% of voters supporting him. The second place with 19.18% of the vote went to the leader of the liberal progressive party “Union for the Salvation of Romania” Elena Lasconi. However, one of the presidential candidates, Cristian Terges, who is supported by the Romanian National Conservative Party, claimed election fraud. The Romanian Constitutional Court unanimously decided to recount all valid and invalid ballots, and on December 6, unanimously decided to cancel the results of the first round of the presidential election two days before the second round. The election was canceled against the backdrop of declassified information from the intelligence services indicating Russian interference in the election.
Later, the ruling coalition in Romania decided on the date of the new presidential elections, which will be held on May 4 and May 18.
Georgescu called Ukraine a “fictitious state” and said that its territories would be divided by neighboring countries. According to him, if elected, he will not allow the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports through Romania and further military aid to Kyiv. He also claimed that Bucharest is not obliged to comply with NATO’s defense spending commitments and questioned the effectiveness of the use of EU funds that have contributed to economic growth and infrastructure development in Romania. Earlier, the Experts Club and Active Group released a video analysis of the most important elections in the world in 2025, for more details, see the video review – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=-rc6YHH7EA1pnr7w
Information and analytical center Experts Club analyzed the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the external debts of states and their ratio to the GDP of states. The video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel. In 2023, the leader in terms of public debt to GDP was Sudan – its figure reached 252%. This is due to the economic crisis, the consequences of the armed conflict and hyperinflation.
In second place is Japan (206%), which traditionally holds a high debt burden due to large-scale government borrowing and debt financing of the budget.
Third place went to Lebanon (195%), whose economy continues to suffer from the effects of the financial crisis, corruption and political instability.
Further down in the ranking are:
4. Greece – 185%
5. Singapore – 177%
6. Argentina – 155%
7. Italy – 132%
8. Zambia – 127%
9. Bahrain – 123%
10. Maldives – 123%
11. Bhutan – 116%
12. Laos – 116%
13. Cape Verde – 114%
14. Barbados – 113%
15. USA – 112%
16. Cyprus – 112%
17. Portugal – 105%
18. Great Britain – 101%
19. Dominica – 100%
20. Republic of Congo – 99%
Maxim Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, PhD in Economics, said that a high level of public debt in relation to GDP is a serious challenge for the economy of any country.
“In some cases, such as Sudan or Lebanon, this is a consequence of structural crises, armed conflicts, and political instability. At the same time, countries such as Japan and Singapore, despite their high debt ratios, have sustainable economic models that allow them to effectively manage their financial obligations. It is crucial for Ukraine to find a balance between attracting external financing and ensuring economic sustainability to avoid a debt trap and excessive dependence on creditors,” Urakin said.
As of 2023, Ukraine’s external debt totaled $132.4 billion and its ratio to GDP was 87%. Ukraine is not among the top 20 countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio, but ranks high among countries with large government liabilities.
In terms of absolute debt, Ukraine is about 30th in the world, but due to the military conflict and the need for external financing, this indicator continues to grow.
If the situation does not stabilize, further growth of the debt burden is predicted, which may lead to difficulties in debt servicing and increased dependence on international creditors.
Video analysis is available at the link – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oT_5cTOnM8k
