The Experts Club information and analytical center, with the assistance of the Ukrainian Cement Manufacturers Association (Ukrcement), has conducted an analysis of the Ukrainian cement industry.
Over the past five years, the Ukrainian cement industry has experienced a peak in production in 2021, a sharp decline in 2022, a gradual recovery in 2023, and stabilization in 2024. However, the current level is still far from pre-war indicators.
According to trade union and industry reviews, output was about 11 million tons in 2021, fell to 5.4 million tons in 2022, recovered to 7.43 million tons in 2023, and reached 7.93 million tons in 2024. In 2025, manufacturers are talking about an actual “ceiling” — approximately 8 million tons under current risks and logistics, which is likely to be the maximum figure.
The dynamics of domestic cement consumption show a similar trend of “decline and normalization.” In 2021, before the full-scale invasion, consumption was around ~10.6 million tons. In 2022, the cement market fell sharply to approximately 4.5 million tons, rose to 6.2 million tons in 2023, and stabilized at around 6.3 million tons in 2024. Thus, the country approached a stable level of “war” demand, which is almost half of the pre-war level, within the range of 6–6.5 million tons.
The structure of demand has changed: the share of traditional residential and commercial construction has given way to infrastructure and defense projects. The key short-term drivers are fortification works, shelters, emergency repairs of roads and bridges, as well as targeted housing programs such as “єОселя,” which supported demand in 2023–2024, although they did not return it to the 2021 level. The market expects demand to remain stable in 2025, sensitive to the volume of budgetary and international financing.
Amid declining domestic demand, a natural step to support production capacity utilization was the gradual reorientation of part of the cement output to foreign markets. In 2021, cement exports amounted to about 971,000 tons (9% of production), and in 2024, about 1.7 million tons (21.3% of production). The main destinations remain neighboring countries—Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Moldova—as confirmed by both statistical data and industry estimates. The industry has repeatedly emphasized that as soon as domestic consumption begins to grow, the export share will decline in favor of Ukrainian construction sites.
Imports, on the contrary, have declined. After approximately 1 million tons in pre-crisis 2020, deliveries in 2024 decreased to ~40 thousand tons (including niche items such as white cement). This was also influenced by anti-dumping duties: against Turkey — 33–51% (in effect until September 2026), and against Russia/Belarus/Moldova, measures have been extended until 2030. Under the current conditions, when production capacities and logistics are adapted to the “military” level of consumption, demand is fully covered by domestic resources.
The market structure in 2024–2025 is highly concentrated. The key producers are PJSC Ivano-Frankivskcement, the CRH group (after the AMCU approved the deal to acquire CRH’s Dyckerhoff/Buzzi assets — PJSC VIPCEM, Podolsky Cement JSC, Mykolaivcement PJSC, Cement LLC) and Kryvyi Rih Cement PJSC. Despite market discussions, legal disputes, and attention from antitrust authorities—which is to be expected for transactions of this scale—the CRH deal creates potential for integration into global production and logistics chains, attracting new investments, modernizing production, and raising the standards of the competitive environment. In the context of the country’s future large-scale recovery, the agreement opens up opportunities to strengthen supply stability, improve product quality, and develop a competitive environment.
Who is currently driving domestic consumption? In peacetime, the main stabilizers of demand were mass housing construction and infrastructure. In 2023–2025, basic demand will be driven by roads and engineering structures (including fortifications and shelters), municipal and energy facilities, selective reconstruction projects, as well as the private sector — repairs and local construction.
Road construction is an important factor in economic and social development. The introduction of the latest technologies, the use of high-quality materials, and compliance with environmental requirements are key aspects of the successful development of this industry.
The development of the construction and repair of cement concrete roads based on cement mixtures can play a key role in stimulating stable cement consumption in conditions of war and reconstruction. This infrastructure direction makes it possible to maintain the production capacity of enterprises, jobs, and economic activity, despite a significant reduction in residential and commercial construction. Thanks to their durability and endurance, cement concrete pavements are the optimal solution for both military and civilian logistics. The implementation of such projects not only ensures constant demand in the industry, but also the development of related sectors, creating a multiplier effect for the economy even in crisis conditions. This issue will be the focus of a specialised seminar organised by NIRI and the Ukrcement Association on 15-16 October 2025, where the advantages and role of cement concrete solutions in the reconstruction of Ukraine will be discussed (details at ukrcement.com.ua).
In terms of sales channels, the market remains predominantly B2B: most of the cement is purchased by contractors, road and infrastructure companies, large developers, reinforced concrete manufacturers, and concrete plants. The B2C channel (retail chains of building materials, small contractors) continues to play a significant role in repairs and low-rise construction, but in terms of total volume, it is inferior to the project segment. Industry reviews of construction projects and reports on fortification works in 2024–2025 provide further confirmation of the “infrastructure” shift.
The geography of foreign sales shows a stable “corridor” and proximity to the EU. According to trade statistics for 2023, Romania accounted for the largest value of supplies, followed by Poland and Hungary; in 2024, Romania, Poland, and Hungary remained in the lead.
This reflects shortages in the EU border markets and the competitiveness of Ukrainian prices with close logistics.
What limits growth. Military risks and energy infrastructure (in particular, the availability of electricity), regional logistics, as well as regulatory and competitive issues. A large-scale jump in consumption (approximately 12–13 million tons) requires a steady inflow of investment resources for reconstruction of around $35 billion per year — the association considers such a scenario to be technically and operationally realistic. Predictable competition rules and price monitoring are important in the equation so that the “reconstruction” multiplier is not absorbed by costs.
Conclusion by Experts Club. The industry has found a “military balance”: production of about 8 million tons, domestic consumption of ~6.3 million tons, and exports as insurance at the level of 1.5–1.7 million tons. With the scaling up of energy restoration and strengthening programs, a shift from exports to the domestic market is logical. The key to acceleration is stable financing of infrastructure and housing, affordable energy, and maintaining fair competition between major players. In such a scenario, cement remains one of the first materials that quickly transforms the budget into employment and GDP — through concrete, reinforced concrete structures, roads, and fortifications.
Sources: Global Cement (production and consumption; import duties), Interfax-Ukraine/Ukrcement (exports in 2024; estimates of reconstruction needs), OEC (export destinations in 2023), CEMBUREAU (imports, exports, and consumption, in particular the benchmark for 2024), industry and business media regarding the CRH/Dyckerhoff deal and the competitive situation.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/rynok-czementu-ukrayiny-doslidzhennya-experts-club/
Sunflower processing in Argentina in August 2025 increased to 488 thousand tons compared to 330 thousand tons in the same month of 2024, according to the APK-Inform agency, citing data from Oil World. At the same time, the figure was only slightly lower than in July of this year (491,000 tons).
According to experts, processing in September and October will continue to significantly exceed last year’s figures, as Argentine processors are taking advantage of the decline in sunflower harvests in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Bulgaria.
Argentine sunflower oil is currently the most competitive on the world market and is sold at significant discounts compared to products from the Black Sea region. Thus, exports in August amounted to 172,000 tons, compared to 116,000 tons a year earlier. The main destinations are India (90,000 tons compared to 21,000 tons a year earlier) and Iraq (14,000 tons compared to 31,000 tons).
According to data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, the sunflower harvest in 2025 exceeded forecasts and amounted to 5.3 million tons, compared to 3.9 million tons in 2024. The country’s authorities expect to maintain high production levels in 2026 by increasing the area under cultivation by 10% annually.
Analysts at the Experts Club note that the growth in processing and exports from Argentina is putting pressure on the global sunflower oil market, lowering prices and increasing competition.
For Ukraine, one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of oil, this could mean a reduction in export revenues and the need to actively seek new markets, as well as to focus on deeper processing and improving product quality.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of May 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
The first five months of 2025 saw a modest recovery amid high uncertainty. According to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in the first quarter of 2025 (seasonally adjusted: –0.3% q/q), reflecting the fragile but still positive dynamics of domestic demand and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions.
Inflationary pressure intensified in May: annual inflation accelerated to 15.9% (month-on-month: +1.3%), mainly due to a jump in food prices and the impact of energy factors. The NBU directly pointed to seasonal and supply factors and at the same time expects a slowdown in the summer months.
Against this backdrop, the NBU Board consistently maintained the policy rate at 15.5% per annum in March, April, and June, emphasizing the priority of anchoring inflation expectations and exchange rate stability.
Foreign trade in goods remained in deep deficit in January–April: exports amounted to $15.8 billion, imports to $29.3 billion, and the negative balance to about $13.4 billion. During the same period, exports of services amounted to $12.7 billion, imports to $7.4 billion. Structurally, imports are dominated by fuel, machinery, and transport, while commodity exports are concentrated in raw material groups.
Despite the trade gap, international reserves reached historically high levels at the end of May, amounting to $44.5 billion as of June 1, 2025 (thanks to official receipts and NBU operations).
At the same time, the debt burden is high: total public and guaranteed debt as of May 31, 2025, was $180.97 billion (7.52 trillion UAH).
“The current macro dynamics are more like driving with the handbrake slightly engaged: the economy is capable of moving, but without acceleration. The positive aspect is that we are maintaining growth and gradually curbing inflation. The negative aspect is the sources of this balance: reserves and external inflows are replacing investments and export revenues. If we do not convert record reserves and access to international programs into an investment impulse in manufacturing, energy, and logistics in the summer, we will have to extinguish structural fires in the fall, rather than price fires,” notes Maxim Urakin.
The expert also emphasizes the quality of demand. According to Urakin, consumption is reviving, but it is fragile and uneven — it is being sustained by the IT sector, services, and part of trade. Industry without major infrastructure repairs, cheap long-term money, and access to ports is like an engine running at minimum speed.
“Add the risks of energy during peak periods, and we get an economy that needs not isolated injections but systemic therapy: insurance of military risks for investors, fast ‘windows’ for importing equipment, duty-free corridors for exporters, and large-scale public-private partnership projects. Otherwise, we will preserve the trade deficit and dependence on external financing,” the economist stressed.
Global economy
The global picture at the end of May 2025 remains mixed. In its April WEO, the IMF forecasts global economic growth of around 2.8% in 2025, with a further decline in inflation, but with risks related to geopolitics and trade protectionism remaining.
After overheating in 2024, the US saw negative GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025: according to the BEA’s second estimate, a 0.3% decline in annual terms, explained by a sharp increase in imports and a reduction in government spending; domestic final demand remained stable. In May, core PCE inflation remained close to 2.6% y/y, and the Fed kept the rate range at 4.5–4.75% at its meeting on May 1 (in June, it continued its cycle of moderate easing).
China reported official GDP growth of 5.4% y/y (1.2% q/q) in Q1, supported by industry, transport, and IT services; at the same time, the real estate sector remains a restraining factor.
The European economy is gradually emerging from stagnation. In its spring forecast, the European Commission expects GDP growth of 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the eurozone in 2025; inflation is converging with the ECB’s target. The first quarter provided positive momentum: eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q.
The UK was a pleasant surprise for the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1, and on May 8, the Bank of England lowered its rate to 4.5%, maintaining cautious rhetoric due to inflation risks.
Turkey continues to experience a combination of growth and high inflation: in Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.7% y/y, while inflation in May stood at 35.4% y/y despite tight monetary policy.
India maintains high momentum: according to official data, in the fourth quarter of the 2024/25 fiscal year (January–March 2025), real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y; for the entire fiscal year, the government estimates growth of approximately 6.5–6.9%.
Brazil added 1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in the first quarter, but inflation remained high in May — around 5.3% y/y, forcing the central bank to maintain tight financial conditions.
“The world in May 2025 is a multi-speed economy. The US is cooling down with negative Q1 statistics, but demand and the labor market are still driving growth. Europe, despite low growth rates, is on a trajectory consistent with its inflation target; the UK is showing resilience; China is holding steady at 5%+, but with weak private demand; India is the clear leader in terms of growth among the major economies; Turkey is experiencing high inflationary turbulence; Brazil is growing, but paying dearly for it,” comments Maxim Urakhin.
According to the expert, for Ukraine this means a new configuration of opportunities: cheaper global money will not appear quickly, but the “window” for investment in the relocation of production, energy, and defense-industrial chains is already open.
“The main thing is to design growth not as a simple restoration of the pre-war structure, but as a leap in productivity: processing instead of raw materials, logistics with high added value, digital services, and engineering that are export-scalable. Then macrofinancial stability will cease to be fragile and will become a platform for development,” added the founder of Experts Club.
Conclusion
In January–May 2025, the Ukrainian economy is in a mode of sustained stabilization: moderate annual growth at the start of the year, inflation peaking in May, record reserves, and high debt burden. The strategic choice is to transform external support and import resources into a source of investment in productivity and exports. The global context is asymmetrical and risky, but it opens up niches where Ukraine can grow faster than the world if it focuses on structural projects and policies that convert stability into development.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Industrial production in Ukraine increased by 3.2% in July 2025 compared to July last year. This is the second consecutive month of growth: in June, the indicator rose by 2.9%, while in May and April, a decline was recorded, according to the State Statistics Service.
In January-July 2025, the total volume of industrial production was 3% lower than in the same period of 2024. The decline in the extractive industry was 11.1%, and in the production of coke and petroleum products, 6.3%.
The volume of industrial products sold over seven months reached UAH 2,296.5 billion, of which UAH 406.4 billion was accounted for by exports.
The main industries that showed growth in July compared to last year were:
– pharmaceuticals — +23.6%;
– furniture manufacturing — +22%;
– rubber and plastic products manufacturing — +12.7%;
– electricity, gas, and steam supply — +10.2%;
– woodworking — +8.4%;
– food industry — +3.4%;
– coke production — +2.5%;
– electrical equipment — +1.8%;
– automotive industry — +0.5%;
– oil and gas production — +0.4%.
At the same time, there was a decline in:
– coal mining — by 1.6%;
– metal ore mining — by 7.7%;
– textile manufacturing — by 7.1%;
– computer and electronics manufacturing — by 6%;
– metallurgy — by 0.8%;
– mechanical engineering — by 0.1%.
Interestingly, the mining and quarrying segment recorded growth of 49.1%.
Compared to June 2025, industrial production in July increased by 0.6%.
In 2024, industrial production in Ukraine grew by 4.6%.
According to Maxim Urakhin, co-founder of the Experts Club analytical center, July’s growth shows that Ukraine’s industry is gradually adapting to military conditions and external challenges:
“We are seeing a local recovery in pharmaceuticals, wood processing, and energy. These are the sectors that respond most quickly to domestic demand and the needs of the economy. However, the decline in metallurgy and mining reminds us of structural problems: export-oriented industries continue to suffer from logistics and declining global demand. By the end of the year, industry may show a moderate recovery, but investment in modernization and expansion of export routes is necessary to achieve sustainable growth,” Maxim Urakin noted.
In the first two months of the new marketing year (2025/2026 MY), which began on July 1, Ukraine exported 1.456 million tons of wheat, which is 28% less than in the same period last season (2.026 million tons), according to APK-Inform.
Egypt became the key importer of Ukrainian wheat, almost doubling its purchases to 699,000 tons and becoming the largest buyer.
At the same time, most other traditional importers reduced their volumes:
Supplies also decreased to:
As of early September, Ukraine had harvested 30.4 million tons of grain crops on an area of 7.2 million hectares, which is about 63% of the total crop.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center presented a study of Ukraine’s main trading partners in the first half of 2025, where Egypt ranked first in terms of positive balance among all of Ukraine’s trading partners.
“Egypt is an extremely important and profitable trading partner for the country, along with a number of other Arab states. Partnerships with these countries provide the country with currency and somewhat correct the extremely negative trend of recent years with Ukraine’s constantly growing trade deficit,” emphasized Maxim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In terms of total trade volume, Ukraine cooperates most closely with China, Poland, and Germany. These countries form the basis of the state’s foreign economic relations, exerting a critical influence on imports and exports.
China remains the leader with a total trade volume of $8.99 billion. Poland ranks second with $6.04 billion, while Germany and Turkey are almost equal with $4.28 billion and $4.25 billion, respectively. The United States ranks fifth with $2.86 billion.
The top 10 also includes Italy ($2.38 billion), the Czech Republic ($1.64 billion), Bulgaria ($1.54 billion), Hungary ($1.53 billion), and Romania ($1.50 billion).
“The top ten partners form the basis of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. China and the EU countries account for the largest volumes of trade, but it is important to take into account the significant negative balance in relations with these countries,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He added that although the large volume of trade indicates Ukraine’s integration into global supply chains, dependence on imports from China and Europe creates strategic risks.
“Poland and Germany are key hubs for Ukrainian exports, but at the same time they are significant sources of imports. Therefore, it is critically important to balance trade flows, preserving positive sectors such as agriculture and metallurgy, and reducing dependence on critical imports,” Urakin noted.
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