Japan’s economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter relative to the previous three months, according to preliminary government data. Analysts, whose average estimates are quoted by Trading Economics, had expected a 0.4% decline in GDP.
According to the revised data, the economy was unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2023, while previously reported growth of 0.1%.
On an annualized basis, Japanese GDP contracted 2% last quarter after a revised zero change a quarter earlier. The consensus forecast called for a 1.5% drop in January-March.
Consumer spending in the first quarter decreased by 0.7% relative to the previous three months, business investment – by 0.8%. Government spending rose by 0.2%.
Exports decreased by 5% after growth of 2.8% quarter earlier, imports – by 3.4% (+1.8% in October-December).
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
UN economists have improved their forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.7% from 2.4% expected in January.
In 2025, it will increase by 2.8%, while previously it was expected to be 2.7%.
The average growth rate of the global economy in the coming years is expected to remain below the 3.2% recorded on average in 2010-2019.
The revision of the estimate for the current year is mainly due to more positive changes in the economies of a number of large developed and developing countries, in particular Brazil, India, Russia and the United States, the organization’s report says.
According to UN estimates, the US economy will grow by 2.3% this year (1.4% was expected in January), the UK – by 0.8% (0.4%), China – by 4.8% (4.7%), Brazil – by 2.1% (1.6%), India – by 6.9% (6.2%), and Japan – by 1.2% (unchanged).
At the same time, the forecasts for the European Union and the euro area were revised downward – to 1% from 1.2% and to 0.8% from 1.1%, respectively.
“For both the European Union as a whole and the euro area, we expect a gradual recovery in economic activity in 2024-2025, after a noticeable stagnation in many European countries over the past year,” said Grigoriy Agabekyan of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
This should be facilitated by a slowdown in inflation (it is falling faster than expected in Europe due to a sharp decline in energy costs), income growth in real terms, and the expected easing of monetary policy.
“In fact, a number of central banks in Eastern Europe and the Swiss central bank have already cut their key interest rates, and as inflation returns to its target level, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to begin their easing cycles this year. It is also expected that as global trade recovers, exports from European countries will increase,” the expert said.
“As for the somewhat more modest forecasts for the European Union compared to those presented in January, this revision is explained by the fact that against the background of continued sluggish industrial production, economic growth forecasts for a number of countries on the continent that depend on the manufacturing industry have been lowered. This list includes, in particular, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. At the same time, Germany’s economy, which is the leading economy in the European Union, shrank by 0.3% in 2023, and in 2024 we assume a recovery of only 0.3%,” Agabekyan said.
The UN forecasts global trade growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.6% next year.
GDP growth in developed countries is expected to reach 1.6% in 2024 and 2025, and in developing countries – by 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
According to Ukrainians, the countries of the Arab world are neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This was revealed by a joint study by Active Group and the Experts Club think tank, “Attitudes of Ukrainians toward the Middle East and Central Asia,” which was presented at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
“The analysis includes a predominantly positive attitude of our citizens towards such countries as Israel (72.5%) and Turkey (55%), while the attitude towards other countries in the region is mostly neutral. Ukrainians are extremely negative about Iran (76%) and mostly negative about Afghanistan (52.6%),” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the research company Active Group.
In addition, the expert added that Ukrainians are mostly positive about countries with which they have trade or cultural ties. This is natural, as such ties promote mutual respect between societies and countries.
In his turn, Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the research company Active Group, emphasized that the attitude of Ukrainians towards the Middle East and Central Asia varies depending on many factors.
“We can see that the attitude of citizens is really certain only in relation to two countries – Iran and Israel. These are the countries where the percentage of those who find it difficult to answer is less than 20%. The rest of the countries have a much higher percentage of uncertainty, which indicates that Ukrainians are not well informed about these countries,” emphasized Eremenko.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, added that building cooperation with the Middle East and Central Asia is very important for the development of the Ukrainian economy, especially in the agricultural and IT sectors. These industries have great potential for development and can become the basis for a mutually beneficial partnership.
“It is necessary to implement a state strategy to reduce the trade deficit and increase Ukraine’s export potential. This will create a more balanced and sustainable economy that will be less dependent on external factors. Ukraine may be interested in agricultural products, IT clusters, and educational services. We are interested in sales markets, agricultural technologies, metallurgy, and chemistry,” Urakin emphasized.
According to him, trade between Ukraine and the countries under study is currently growing rapidly.
“Turkey is the largest trading partner among the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, accounting for more than half of all trade with these countries. This shows the importance of Turkey for the Ukrainian economy,” the founder of Experts Club added.
According to Urakin, a balanced foreign economic policy in the region can not only significantly improve Ukraine’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, but also have a positive impact on the overall state of the economy.
The results of the study are available here.
ACTIVE GROUP, ALEXANDER POZNIY, ANDREY EREMENKO, CENTRAL_ASIA, ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MAXIM URAKIN, MIDDLE_EAST, POLL, SOCIOLOGY
The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Turkey’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings to “B+” from “B”.
The ratings outlook is “positive,” according to a press release from S&P.
“We expect that following the municipal elections held in the country, the Turkish authorities will continue to fight inflation aggressively through tightening monetary policy and gradual fiscal consolidation,” the agency’s experts say.
S&P predicts a decline in Turkey’s current account deficit over the next two years, along with weakening inflation and slowing dollarization of the economy. At the same time, the agency’s analysts believe that the country’s inflation rate will remain double-digit until early 2028.
The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep the key interest rate at the current level of 50% until the end of 2024, according to S&P.
“We could upgrade Turkey’s rating again if the country’s balance of payments continues to improve, inflation slows, and domestic savings in Turkish lira increase, allowing the country to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves,” the agency said in a press release.
S&P may change the outlook on Turkey’s ratings to stable if pressure on the country’s financial stability or state budget increases, for example, if the lira’s depreciation fails to stop, or if the authorities abandon inflation control measures.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a detailed video analysis of how economic and political life is developing in Turkey, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/SUqOMFI5HbI?si=uEIZZOORj65VElUQ
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2024 by the same period last year at 3.1%, while in January it forecast it at 7.1%.
“Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, according to NBU estimates, was weaker than expected, primarily due to restrained budget expenditures amid uncertainty about the receipt of external financing. An additional factor was the blockade of the western border, which restrained the activity of certain types of activities,” the National Bank explained in the Inflation Report published on its website.
At the same time, as the NBU pointed out, stable operation of the sea corridor, favorable weather and increased domestic demand supported economic growth. The central bank added that fiscal policy remained accommodative and, together with the effect of a significant increase in fiscal spending at the end of 2023, significantly fueled aggregate demand.
Earlier, in late April, the Economy Ministry estimated Ukraine’s GDP growth at 4.5% in the first quarter of this year.
As the National Bank notes, moderate GDP growth rates will remain until the end of 2024. “The main factors of growth will remain the preservation of soft fiscal policy, revitalization of external demand, as well as further adjustment of business and population to the conditions of significant security threats. However, the pace of economic growth will slow given the impact of the war and the depletion of growth momentum from the low base of 2022,” the NBI pointed out.
It added that the recovery will also be constrained by the impact of the destruction of energy infrastructure.
According to the updated forecasts, GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in the second quarter (the NBU expected it at 4.8% in January) before slowing to 1.3% (1.7%) in the third quarter and accelerating again to 4.1% (2.0%) in the fourth quarter.
Overall, for 2024, the NBU worsened its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy to 3% from 3.6% in its January report, and for 2025 to 5.3% from 5.8%.
“The negative contribution of revised estimates of the e/e deficit to the change in real GDP in 2024 is estimated at 0.6 percentage points (pp), and 0.5 pp in 2025. Instead, the impact on GDP of a smaller grain harvest in 2024 will be insignificant due to the reorientation of agricultural producers to more marginal crops, particularly oilseeds,” the central bank said.
According to the regulator, the balance of risks of the baseline forecast is shifted towards deterioration of Ukraine’s economic growth rates and increased price pressure.
The National Bank in the updated Inflation Report increased the number of key risks of the forecast (with a strong impact and probability of 25-50%) to three: to the risk of a longer period and intensity of the war added the risk of large budgetary needs (a quarter earlier the NBU estimated its probability at 15-25%) and large damage to energy and port infrastructure (a quarter earlier the impact of this risk the central bank considered moderate).
At the same time, the probability of the risk of reduction of volumes and loss of rhythm of international aid receipts and continuation of partial blocking of cargo traffic across the border by some EU countries was reduced from 25-50% to 15-25%, but the degree of impact of the latter risk was increased from weak to moderate.
In addition, the NBU added a new risk – aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea, but estimated its probability at 15-25% and the degree of influence as low, as well as excluded the risk of increasing the capacity of maritime export routes, which is positive for the forecast.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksym Urakin presented data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022 and the forecast for 2024.
“The baseline scenario of the NBU’s macroeconomic forecast assumes the continuation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at maintaining macrofinancial stability. Ukraine is also expected to fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, which will continue to provide financial support in sufficient amounts. The forecast envisages a significant reduction in security risks starting in 2025, which will allow unblocking seaports, expanding opportunities for investment and economic activity, and facilitating the return of forced migrants to Ukraine. “, – emphasized Urakin.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international assistance.
“Risks such as additional budgetary needs, in particular for maintaining defense capabilities and eliminating the consequences of destruction, as well as significant deficits, in particular in the energy sector, remain relevant. Significant damage to the port and energy infrastructure will limit exports, and the continued partial blocking of borders with certain EU countries for freight transportation will limit both imports and exports. Another risk is the deepening of negative migration trends,” the economist said.
According to the expert, the pace of international assistance to Ukraine decreased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023
I quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the economic recovery this year in the context of the war.
Prospects for the Global Economy
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“The analysis of the global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. In this context, Ukraine needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=HO-KT2UC8pYdUwCH
