According to Experts Club, Ukrainian citizens received 335,100 first-time residence permits in European Union countries in 2025, ranking first among citizens of all non-EU countries, according to Eurostat data.
Ukrainians accounted for 8.7% of all first-time residence permits issued in the EU to third-country nationals. Citizens of India ranked second with 227,600 permits, or 5.9%, while Morocco ranked third with 202,100 permits, or 5.2%.
Compared to 2024, the number of first-time residence permits issued to Ukrainians increased by 13.6%. A year earlier, there were about 295,000. Thus, despite the continuation of the temporary protection mechanism, the flow of Ukrainians who are transitioning to or initially applying for other grounds for legal residence in the EU remains significant.
The main reason Ukrainians obtained their first residence permit was employment. According to Eurostat, approximately two-thirds of the permits issued to Ukrainian citizens in 2025 were related to employment.
Poland remained the primary destination: it accounted for 72% of all first residence permits issued to Ukrainians in the EU.
At the same time, Eurostat specifically notes that these figures do not include individuals benefiting from temporary protection in connection with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Temporary protection is accounted for in separate statistics; therefore, the 335,100 permits reflect other grounds for residence—primarily work, family, education, and other categories.
In total, EU countries issued approximately 3.9 million first-time residence permits to third-country nationals in 2025.
EU, Eurostat, EXPERTS CLUB, MIGRATION, RESIDENCE PERMIT, UKRAINE
Direct funding for security and defense in Ukraine’s draft 2027 state budget amounts to approximately UAH 4.855 trillion, or 66.8% of all planned expenditures, reports the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Including UAH 30 billion in state guarantees, the government declares a total defense resource of UAH 4.885 trillion. Compared with the 2026 plan, this represents an increase of approximately UAH 517.8 billion, or 11.9%.
Most of the increase is allocated to military pay and salaries with related charges, which rise from UAH 1.454 trillion to UAH 1.792 trillion. Meanwhile, the comparable allocation for weapons and military equipment in the Finance Ministry’s presentation remains virtually unchanged at UAH 2.299 trillion, compared with UAH 2.297 trillion in 2026.
Civilian sectors will also receive nominal funding increases. Social spending rises to UAH 540.3 billion, education to UAH 328.5 billion, and healthcare to UAH 292.5 billion. However, part of these increases will be absorbed by projected average annual inflation of 8.6%.
The draft budget also relies on several tax measures that still require legislative approval. In particular, the calculations include an increase in the standard VAT rate from 20% to 21%, expected to generate an additional UAH 58.7 billion. Four proposed tax measures together are expected to raise UAH 117.3 billion.
The macroeconomic forecast assumes real GDP growth of 1.3% in 2027, average annual inflation of 8.6%, and an average exchange rate of UAH 47.1 per US dollar, compared with an expected UAH 44.4 in 2026. The year-end 2027 exchange rate is projected at UAH 48.3 per dollar.
Canada ranked first in terms of the balance of positive and negative attitudes among Ukrainians among Ukraine’s 50 largest trading partners, while China, which leads in trade turnover, received the lowest indicator, and attitudes toward Poland deteriorated significantly, according to the results of a study by Active Group and the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the published ranking, the balance of positive and negative assessments of Canada amounted to plus 73.8 percentage points. It was followed by Sweden – plus 70.6 p.p., the Netherlands – 69.7 p.p., Finland and Norway – 69.3 p.p. each, France – 69.1 p.p., Italy – 67.1 p.p., Lithuania – 65.9 p.p., Switzerland and the United Kingdom – 65.6 p.p. each.
This indicator is the difference between the shares of positive and negative responses. In particular, 76.3% of respondents have a positive attitude toward Canada, 2.5% have a negative attitude, and 19.2% have a neutral attitude.
The worst balance was recorded for China – minus 25.4 p.p.: 18.2% of respondents assess it positively, 43.6% negatively, and 33.9% neutrally. India also has a negative indicator – minus 14.3 p.p., Hungary – minus 12.7 p.p., and Lebanon – minus 9.2 p.p.
Doctor of Sociological Sciences and head of the Kyiv branch of the Sociological Association of Ukraine Olga Bezrukova called China an illustrative example of the gap between the scale of economic interaction and the country’s public image.
“We saw that China is Ukraine’s largest economic partner in terms of total trade turnover, but this is in no way converted into a positive public image. This shows that Ukrainian citizens clearly distinguish between the pragmatism of economic interaction and the overall assessment of a state. Economic dependence and interaction do not equal public sympathy for this country,” she emphasized at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday.
One of the most noticeable changes was the deterioration in attitudes toward Poland. While in March 2026 the balance of assessments stood at plus 41.7 p.p., in August positive and negative responses were practically equal, with a slight predominance of negative ones. A positive attitude was expressed by 34.6% of respondents, a negative one by 37%, and a neutral one by 25.4%.
“At the beginning of the invasion, Poland was perceived almost as the main partner. We asked about the rapprochement between Ukraine and Poland, political and economic, even about uniting into some kind of common union, and we saw enormous positive results. But here we see: Poland seemingly still remains a key partner, but the idea of unification has already been forgotten, and we see stable negativity,” said Active Group founder Andriy Yeremenko.
He linked the deterioration in assessments to the position of part of the Polish authorities, which he considers anti-Ukrainian.
At the same time, the balance of attitudes toward Hungary improved from minus 33.6 p.p. in March to minus 12.7 p.p. in August, although negative assessments still prevail. For the United States, the indicator rose from plus 19.4 to plus 38.4 p.p. Some 55% of respondents have a positive attitude toward the United States, 16.6% a negative attitude, and 25.6% a neutral attitude.
When asked who contributes most to achieving peace in Ukraine, 44.6% of respondents named European Union countries, 25.2% the United States, 23.3% the United Kingdom, 4.1% China, 1.8% India, and 1% Brazil. Regarding priority development of trade and economic relations, 69.9% chose EU countries and the United Kingdom, 11.9% the United States, and 8.4% China.
According to Bezrukova, assessments of the U.S. role in achieving peace remained relatively stable throughout the three waves of the study.
“General sympathy toward a country and an assessment of its functionality at the international level are related but not identical things. Images of countries are multidimensional. A person may change their emotional attitude toward a state but continue to recognize its international weight,” the sociologist explained.
Another model, she said, is demonstrated by India: 48.3% of respondents express a neutral attitude toward it, but among formed assessments negative ones prevail – 31.5% versus 17.2% positive.
The economic indicators were presented by Experts Club founder, deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine agency and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin. According to State Customs Service data cited by him, in the first half of 2026 Ukraine’s trade turnover amounted to $70.3 billion, exports to $21 billion, and imports to $49.3 billion. The negative balance of trade in goods reached $28.3 billion.
“If we compare this with the first half of 2025, there was also an imbalance then, but now exports have increased by approximately 5%, while imports have risen by almost 30%. That is, the deficit increased by more than $10 billion over the year. Therefore, it is very important for us to analyze our main partners,” he emphasized.
According to the materials presented, trade turnover with China in January-June amounted to about $14.68 billion. Ukraine exported $778 million worth of goods to China and imported $13.90 billion, forming a deficit of approximately $13.12 billion. Poland remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian goods, with a volume of $2.38 billion. Türkiye ranked second among export markets with $1.78 billion, and Italy third with $1.28 billion.
In terms of total trade volume, China is followed by Poland – $7.05 billion, Türkiye – $4.90 billion, Germany – $4.48 billion, and the United States – $3.07 billion. Yeremenko highlighted Türkiye as an example of a combination of significant trade turnover and predominantly positive perception: 52.3% of respondents have a favorable attitude toward it, while 7.4% have a negative attitude.
Urakin separately drew attention to partners with which trade provides Ukraine with a positive balance. In the first half of the year, the largest was with Spain – $578.1 million, Egypt – $527.1 million, and Moldova – $467.2 million. They were followed by Algeria – $309.2 million, the Netherlands – $221.5 million, and Lebanon – $220.5 million. Libya, Tunisia, Iraq, and Yemen also entered the top ten.
At the same time, neutral attitudes prevail toward a number of these partners. Egypt is assessed neutrally by 61.3% of respondents, Algeria by 65.8%, and Tunisia by 67.3%. Participants in the press conference linked this to insufficient awareness among Ukrainians about these countries and emphasized the need for more active economic and public diplomacy.
“It is necessary to develop not only general awareness better. First of all, business associations, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to work to develop bilateral relations and improve the balance. In conditions where Ukraine already lacks financing and we live, essentially, at the expense of external borrowing, cooperation should be expanded with countries where we can have a positive balance,” said Active Group director Oleksandr Pozniy.
Urakin recommended that embassies accredited in Ukraine ensure full communication in the Ukrainian language, openness to the media, and regular reporting on the results of cooperation.
“The first recommendation is to regularly show concrete deeds, concrete actions, the presence here of foundations, embassies, teams, diplomats in the humanitarian sphere and in science. Second, to be open to questions and requests from the media and the public. We also need to use our sociology to draw conclusions and cement our relations, primarily trade relations,” he added.
This is the third wave of the study; the previous ones were conducted in August 2025 and March 2026. The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-completed online questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel. A total of 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and over were surveyed. According to the organizers, the sample is representative by age, gender and region, and the stated maximum theoretical statistical margin of error at a 95% confidence level is 3.5%.
ACTIVE GROUP, CANADA, CHINA, EXPERTS CLUB, POLAND, PUBLIC OPINION, TRADE, UKRAINE, UNITED STATES
In January–August 2026, Ukraine increased imports of aluminum and aluminum products by 31.7% compared with the same period last year, reaching $453.439 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, aluminum and aluminum product imports totaled $64.792 million in August.
Exports of aluminum and aluminum products in January–August of this year rose by 25.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching $123.934 million; in August, they totaled $14.369 million.
As previously reported, in 2025 Ukraine increased imports of aluminum and aluminum products by 15.3% compared to 2024, reaching $514.098 million. Exports of aluminum and aluminum products in 2025 rose by 22.9% to $152.919 million.
Aluminum is widely used as a structural material. The main advantages of aluminum are its light weight, formability, corrosion resistance, high thermal conductivity, and the non-toxic nature of its compounds. In particular, these properties have made aluminum extremely popular in the production of cookware, aluminum foil in the food industry, and for packaging. The first three properties have made aluminum the primary raw material in the aviation and aerospace industries (though it has recently been displaced by composite materials, primarily carbon fiber). After construction and packaging production—aluminum cans and foil—the energy sector is the largest consumer of this metal.
For a more detailed overview of global aluminum production from 1970 to 2024, watch the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
ALUMINUM, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, METALLURGY, UKRAINE
In January–August of this year, Ukrainian companies increased their imports of copper and copper products by 13.3% in monetary terms compared to the same period last year—to $139.044 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, exports of copper and copper products rose by 22.7% over the eight-month period, reaching $75.529 million.
In August, copper imports totaled $15.771 million, while exports totaled $9.646 million.
As previously reported, in 2025, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products by 23.2% in monetary terms compared to 2024—to $173.453 million—while exports of copper and copper products rose by 17.7%—to $103.848 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, in the manufacture of pipes, for creating alloys, in medicine, and in other industries.
Previously, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video on global copper production and leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
China has updated its defense mobilization legislation, strengthening requirements for industry, technology companies and civilian infrastructure to be prepared to operate for defense needs, the Experts Club information and analytical center reports.
The revised National Defense Mobilization Law was adopted on August 28, 2026, and will take effect on October 1. The document contains 14 chapters and 82 articles, compared with 72 articles in the 2010 version, and provides more detailed mechanisms for shifting the state, economy and society from peacetime to wartime conditions.
One of the key changes is the stronger role assigned to data and technology within the mobilization system. Enterprises given mobilization assignments must reserve not only equipment, materials and components, but also technologies, data and software. Authorities are also required to assess the resilience of production and supply chains, the availability of resources and companies’ ability to rapidly expand production of necessary goods.
Following a mobilization decision, designated companies may be required to fulfill military procurement contracts, switch production to required items or increase output. Suppliers of critical resources would be expected to give priority to defense-related tasks.
China’s industrial capacity makes these mechanisms particularly significant. In 2025, the country’s GDP reached approximately CNY 140.19 trillion, while manufacturing value added amounted to about CNY 34.7 trillion. China produced 34.8 million vehicles, 484.3 billion integrated circuits and 773,000 industrial robots. Research and development expenditure reached CNY 3.93 trillion.
At the same time, adoption of the law does not in itself mean that China has declared mobilization or decided to go to war. Many of the mechanisms were already present in the previous legislation. The reform primarily modernizes the system technologically, clarifies preparedness procedures and potentially reduces the time between a political decision and the industrial implementation of defense tasks.
China’s official defense budget for 2026 stands at CNY 1.94 trillion. According to SIPRI estimates, Chinese military expenditure reached approximately $336 billion in 2025, marking the 31st consecutive year of growth.
For the global economy, China’s increased mobilization readiness matters because of its central role in the production of electronics, batteries, machinery, ships and industrial equipment. In a crisis scenario, changes in supply priorities could affect international supply chains and the availability of components.
