As of February 14, Ukraine exported 27.275 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year, of which 1.585 mln tonnes were shipped since the beginning of the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of the same date last year, the total shipments amounted to 26.269 million tons, including 2.393 million tons in February.
In particular, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 11.464 mln tonnes of wheat (10.14 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.106 mln tonnes of barley (1.507 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1 thsd tonnes), and 13.27 mln tonnes of corn (14.355 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of February 14 is estimated at 45.5 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 70.6 thsd tonnes), including wheat – 42 thsd tonnes (66.9 thsd tonnes).
The Export Credit Agency (ECA) supported UAH 1.31 billion of Ukrainian exports in January 2025, which is twice as much as in the entire first quarter of 2024, First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said.
“One of the key areas of the ‘Made in Ukraine’ policy is to support and develop non-resource exports. Thanks to cooperation with the ECA, Ukrainian exporters reduce their risks and get the opportunity to get cheaper loans, and thus increase sales abroad.
It is important that such cooperation is expanding, and each hryvnia of insurance liability is converted into almost UAH 14 of future export revenue,” the press service of the Ministry of Economy quoted her as saying.
The ministry noted that in the first month of 2025, export credits in the ECA were insured by Creditwestbank, FUIB, and Oschadbank. Entrepreneurs from Khmelnytskyi and Zaporizhzhia regions and the city of Kyiv used this opportunity most often.
These companies produce furniture, ready-made grain and flour products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and dairy products. Their products are exported to 17 countries, including Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, the United Arab Emirates, and Romania, the Ministry of Economy added.
As reported, in 2024, the ECA supported UAH 7.53 billion of Ukrainian exports. The tools of the Export Credit Agency of Ukraine are one of the elements of the “Made in Ukraine” policy. Its goal is to support non-resource exports, develop production and attract investment in the real sector.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024-June 2025) and lowered it by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, and corn by 1 million tons to 22 million tons.
The updated USDA forecast for February indicates that in 2024/25 MY wheat and corn production in Ukraine will remain at 22.9 mln tonnes and 26.5 mln tonnes, respectively.
At the same time, a slight increase in wheat production and consumption is expected, however, according to USDA, trade volumes and ending stocks will be lower. Accordingly, the forecast for global wheat production was increased by 0.6 million tons to 793.8 million tons, due to increased production in Kazakhstan (+0.6 million tons, to 18.6 million tons) and Argentina (+0.2 million tons, to 17.7 million tons).
Global wheat consumption will also increase by 1.8 mln tonnes to 803.7 mln tonnes due to higher use of feed grains and transitional residues in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.
At the same time, the global wheat trade will decrease by 3 million tons to 209 million tons due to the decline in exports by the EU (-1.0 million tons, to 28.0 million tons), Mexico, Russia (-0.5 million tons, to 45.5 million tons), Turkey and Ukraine (-0.5 million tons, to 15.5 million tons). The largest reduction is expected in China – by 2.5 million tons, to 8.0 million tons, which will be the lowest imports in the last five years, although last year this country was the world’s leading supplier of wheat.
The same picture is expected for the world ending stocks in 2024/25 MY, which, according to the updated forecast, will decrease by 1.3 mln tonnes to 257.6 mln tonnes, due to the reduction in China, partially offset by the increase in stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
In 2024/25 MY, the global corn market is expected to decline in all indicators. The global corn production is expected to decline by 1.9 mln tonnes to 1 bln 212.5 mln tonnes, mainly due to Argentina (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 50.0 mln tonnes) due to lower yields as a result of heat and Brazil (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 126.0 mln tonnes) and slow sowing.
The main changes in the world corn trade are related to the decrease in the forecasted corn exports from Brazil (-1.0 million tons, to 46.0 million tons), Ukraine (-1.0 million tons, to 22.0 million tons) and South Africa. External ending stocks of corn for 2024/25 MY were reduced by 3 million tons to 290.3 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s grain production by 13% and exports by 26% due to the country’s depleted stocks.
According to the February forecast, the country’s ending grain stocks in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) are estimated at 1.8 million tons, up 19% from last year, but significantly lower than before the large-scale invasion in February 2022.
The EU will remain an important destination for Ukraine given its liberalized trade policy and geographical proximity. At the same time, Ukrainian exporters continue to regain their traditional markets, made possible by the efficient operation of the Black Sea ports, the report says.
According to the USDA, the wheat harvest in 2024/25 MY in Ukraine will amount to 22.9 mln tons, which is the same as last year, but its exports will decrease by 19% to 15 mln tons. The barley harvest will be 3% lower than in the season-2023/24, and is estimated at 5.9 million tons, while exports will amount to 2.6 million tons. The forecast for rye production was lowered by 18% to 190 thousand tons.
Rye has become a niche crop for Ukrainian farmers, so its production and exports can vary significantly from year to year, the USDA said.
The USDA forecasts the largest reduction in corn, the production of which will decrease by 24% compared to 2023/24 MY – to 24.6 mln tons, while exports will fall by 33% – to 19.6 mln tons. The ending stocks of the grain are forecasted at 722 thsd tonnes, up slightly from the previous year, but significantly lower than the 2.8 mln tonnes that were in reserve at the end of the 2022/23 season.
Ukraine’s imports of goods in January 2025 increased by 7.8% y-o-y, from $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, while exports decreased by 5.9%, from $3.4 billion to $3.2 billion, the State Customs Service reported on Monday.
According to information on its website, January imports are the highest since 2023, when they reached $4.8 billion, while exports returned to the level of 2023, when they amounted to $3.1 billion.
“Taxed imports (in January-2025 – IF-U) amounted to $4.1 billion, which is 74% of the total volume of imported goods. The tax burden per 1 kg of taxable imports in January 2025 amounted to $0.49/kg,” the State Customs Service said in a statement.
It is noted that China imported the most goods to Ukraine – by $1.4 billion, Poland – by $487 million and Turkey – by $389 million.
Ukraine exported most of its goods to Poland – by $352 million, Italy – by $205 million, and Spain – by $202 million.
In the total volume of goods imported in January 2025, 68% were in the categories of machinery, equipment and transport – $2.2 billion (UAH 12.9 billion, or 27% of customs revenues, was paid to the budget), chemical products – $901 million (UAH 7.3 billion, 15%), and fuel and energy – $734 million (UAH 14.2 billion, 30%).
The top three most exported goods from Ukraine were food products ($1.8 billion), metals and metal products ($325 million), and machinery, equipment, and transport ($282 million).
In January 2025, a total of UAH 22.2 million was paid to the budget during customs clearance of exports of goods subject to export duties.
In January 2025, Ukraine exported 8.1 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 12% more than in December 2024, and 23% more than in January 2024, the Association of Milk Producers (AMP) reported, citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that the main export categories were milk and cream, condensed – 29%, milk and cream, not condensed – 21%, whey – 18% and cheeses – 12%.
In January 2025, compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased natural exports of butter to 749 tons (+71%), ice cream to 490 tons (+37%), condensed milk and cream to 2.33 thousand tons (+16%), whey to 1.44 thousand tons (+12%), butter to 422 tons (+10%) and cheese to 935 tons (+9%). However, over the past month, Ukrainian exporters have reduced shipments of milk and cream, not condensed to 1.72 thousand tons (-9%) and did not supply casein to foreign markets.
The AMP noted that January exports in 2025 increased compared to January 2024 for the following products: butter (+198%), ice cream (+77%), whey (+55%), cheeses (+52%), butter (+42%), and condensed milk and cream (+38%). Ukrainian exporters shipped milk and cream, not condensed, by 32% less than last year.
AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleshvili suggested that Ukrainian companies stepped up export activity in January 2025, taking advantage of high prices for commodities in the world. In particular, the European market was in demand for large wholesale quantities of butter. Consequently, demand for butter, cheese, and milk powder increased in January on export markets, likely due to preparations for the Chinese New Year and Ramadan.
At the same time, in January 2025, Ukraine imported 5.02 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 34% less than in December and 6% less than in January 2024. Compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased imports of whey to 628 tons (+17%), butter to 615 tons (+165%) and ice cream to 51 tons (+53%), the AMP summarized.
