The EU is preparing to impose increased tariffs on Ukrainian imports within a few weeks, which will hit Ukraine’s economy at a crucial moment in its fight against Russian aggression, the Financial Times reported.
According to the publication’s sources, the decision to abruptly terminate special trade agreements that allowed most Ukrainian goods to be imported into the EU duty-free was made after Poland led a movement to protect the bloc’s farmers.
European diplomats said that this transitional proposal, recently sent to EU member states, would sharply reduce duty-free quotas for agricultural products.
Two EU diplomats told the FT that the European Commission’s transitional measure would split the annual duty-free quota into 12 monthly quotas to reduce imports while negotiations continue.
This will have the greatest impact on corn, sugar, honey, and poultry. The corn quota will be reduced from 4.7 million tons to 650,000 tons per year. The quota for poultry will fall from 57,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and for sugar from 109,000 tons to 40,700 tons.
A European Commission representative confirmed that the military agreements will not be reinstated “because we are currently working on revising” the free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine.
“The Commission is also looking into possible transitional measures in case the talks aren’t finished and aren’t applied by June 6,“ he added.
“This is a really bad signal for Ukraine,” said Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, adding that the search for a solution will continue until at least October.
His committee will hear the European Commission’s position on Wednesday on why the promised trade talks have stalled, given that the June deadline was “known for a long time,” Lange said.
According to the publication, the Ukrainian government estimates that a return to pre-war trade conditions would reduce the country’s revenues by approximately EUR 3.5 billion.
“This is a huge step backwards. What we are seeing now is a lack of understanding,” said Mykhailo Bno-Ayriyan, trade representative of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine.
As reported, the EU has a free trade agreement with Ukraine, and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU temporarily suspended customs tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural products. These agreements expire on June 6, and the EU plans to replace them with “transitional measures” while both sides update their joint trade agreement.
The duty-free regime established in 2022 applied to poultry meat, wheat, and sugar from Ukraine, most of which passed through EU countries on their way to Africa and Asia. But farmers and politicians in Poland, France, and other countries have blamed Ukrainian exports for driving down domestic prices. Ahead of the May 18 presidential election, Warsaw asked the European Commission to postpone the highly unpopular trade talks with Kyiv to minimize the chances of nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki.
Since early 2025, the European Commission has stated its intention to abolish preferential trade in agricultural products for Ukraine. It was expected that trade measures to support Ukraine would be more modest and that imports into the EU would decline.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its first forecast for grain exports from Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY): it expects wheat exports to grow to 16.5 million tons from 16 million tons in 2024/25 MY and corn exports to grow to 24 million tons from 22 million tons.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, this year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease slightly to 23 million tons from 23.4 million tons last year, while domestic consumption will decline to 6.6 million tons in this MY from 6.7 million tons in the previous MY, with carryover stocks remaining at 1.49 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA expects its harvest to increase to 30.5 million tons from 26.8 million tons last year, as well as an increase in domestic consumption to 6.23 million tons from 5.15 million tons and carryover stocks from 0.31 million tons to 0.6 million tons.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the total harvest of feed crops this year will amount to 37.04 million tons, compared to 33.47 million tons last year, and their exports in 2025/26 MY will reach 27.58 million tons, up from 24.48 million tons in 2024/25 MY.
Overall, the USDA expects wheat harvests to increase this year to 808.5 million tons from 799.7 million tons last year, and corn harvests to increase to 1,265.0 million tons from 1,221.3 million tons.
As for wheat exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture, in 2025/26 MY, they will increase to 212.99 million tons from 206.12 million tons this MY, and corn exports will increase to 195.81 million tons from 189.35 million tons.
On May 8, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified a strategic agreement with the United States of America on the joint use of mineral resources, which was an important step in strengthening the economic partnership between the two countries. The agreement provides for the creation of a Joint Reconstruction Investment Fund, which will give the US priority access to Ukrainian minerals, including lithium, titanium, graphite, and uranium. At the same time, Ukraine expects increased military support and economic stability.
Volodymyr Khaustov, scientific secretary of the State Institution “Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,” honored economist of Ukraine, and candidate of technical sciences, shared his vision for the prospects of this agreement in a video from the Experts Club expert and analytical center.
“Ukraine has significant potential in the field of strategic mineral extraction. However, it should be understood that realizing this potential requires significant investment and time. Many deposits, particularly lithium deposits, are located in regions where infrastructure needs to be modernized and geological data is based on outdated Soviet research,” Khaustov said.
The expert also highlighted the technological challenges associated with the extraction and processing of Ukrainian minerals.
“Most lithium deposits in Ukraine contain ores that are difficult to enrich using existing technologies. This requires the development of new processing methods, which in turn requires time and financial resources,” he explained.
The agreement also stipulates that profits from joint projects will be reinvested in Ukraine during the first ten years, which should contribute to the country’s economic recovery. However, Khaustov warns against excessive optimism about quick results.
“The implementation of such large-scale projects is not a matter of one year. All risks and challenges, including geopolitical and economic ones, that may affect the implementation of the agreement must be taken into account,” he stressed.
Overall, the expert believes that the signing of the agreement with the US is an important step for Ukraine, opening up new opportunities for the development of the mining industry and strengthening the economy. However, the successful implementation of the agreements requires a comprehensive approach, strategic planning, and close cooperation between all interested parties.
“This is a chance for Ukraine to become an important player in the global market for strategic minerals. But this requires not only desire, but also real action, investment, and technological solutions,” Volodymyr Khaustov concluded.
Thus, the agreement between Ukraine and the US opens a new page in the economic partnership between the two countries, but its successful implementation depends on many factors that require careful analysis and balanced decisions.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s mineral resources in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFI5sUBX3gc&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel at: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The possibilities for increasing exports of Ukrainian mineral fertilizers and controlling their imports, in particular preventing the import of fertilizers from the aggressor country through other countries, were discussed by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Vitaliy Koval, at a working meeting with representatives of domestic mineral fertilizer producers at the ministry, according to a press release on the ministry’s website.
“This meeting was supposed to answer the question of how to increase exports of Ukrainian fertilizers to Africa, Asia, and further to the EU. Representatives of Ostchem (the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers) and the Union of Chemists of Ukraine were unanimous at this meeting: imports remain the key problem,” said Oleg Arestarkhov, director of corporate communications at Group DF, to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
According to him, it is imports that prevent Ukrainian companies from expanding production and increasing exports, primarily imports from countries of the former Soviet Union, which have a single market with Russia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, which account for almost half (300,000 tons) of all nitrogen fertilizer imports.
“They have access to cheap gas, so they can dump prices. Total imports of nitrogen fertilizers in the first four months of 2025 amounted to 1.2 million tons, of which 689,300 tons were nitrogen fertilizers. For comparison, Ukrainian production for the four months will be about 500,000 tons,” Arestarkhov said.
He added that Ukraine is losing the urea market, and a new trend is that China has begun to actively supply low-quality cheap ammonium sulfate.
According to the Ostchem representative, due to growing imports, Ukrainian enterprises are operating at the break-even point, which is holding back capital investment in industrial sites and forcing them to lay off workers.
An additional problem for Ukrainian producers is Russian shelling, after which Ostchem had to shut down its workshops several times in the first quarter due to damage to the external gas and energy infrastructure.
“It is logical that we are waiting for support from the government. We spoke openly about this at the meeting and provided them with all the statistics. The dominance of imports is one of the reasons for the decline in the industry. This is also the reason why Dniproazot and the state-owned Odesa Port Plant cannot start production. If the government lends a helping hand, it will see an increase in exports,” Oleksiy Golubov, president of the Ukrainian Chemists’ Union, told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
In turn, Minister Koval emphasized the instructions of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to expand the geography of exports, in particular to the Middle East and Africa, as well as to open a mineral fertilizer hub in South Africa and develop trade between the two countries.
“Ukraine has all the prerequisites for mineral fertilizers to become not only a means of strengthening food security within the country, but also a strategic export commodity,” said the head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
According to the press release, representatives of investment companies, including umgi, also participated in the meeting.
In April 2025, Ukraine doubled its electricity exports compared to March, reaching 151.6 thousand MWh, while imports fell by almost a third to 187 thousand MWh, according to the Ukrainian energy and climate think tank DiXi Group, citing Energy Map.
As explained by DiXi Group experts on the center’s Facebook page, at the beginning of the month, electricity consumption increased due to lower air temperatures, in particular due to additional heating needs. However, in the second half of April, stable weather conditions – warmer and sunny weather – reduced the load on the power grid and contributed to an increase in exports.
Of the 151.6 thousand MWh, 38% (57.1 thousand MWh) went to Hungary, 35% (52.8 thousand MWh) to Moldova, 15% (23.3 thousand MWh) to Romania, 12% (18.4 thousand MWh) to Slovakia. Supplies to Poland have been suspended since mid-March.
Compared to April 2024, exports increased 12.6 times: at that time, they amounted to only 12 thousand MWh.
The distribution of 187,000 MWh of electricity imports by country is as follows: 45% (83,100 MWh) came from Hungary, 18% (34,200 MWh) from Slovakia, 18% (34.2 thousand MWh) from Poland, 13% (24.5 thousand MWh) from Romania, and 6% (11 thousand MWh) from Moldova.
Compared to April 2024 (223.8 thousand MWh), imports decreased by 16%.
“Despite the growth in exports, the total volume of imports in April still exceeds exports by 19%,” DiXi Group experts note.
As reported, Ukraine increased electricity exports by 131% in March to 76.3 thousand MWh, while imports increased by 11% to 272.3 thousand MWh.
Ukrainian companies are maintaining their export activity despite military action and internal restrictions. As Gennady Chizhikov said in an exclusive interview with the news agency Interfax-Ukraine, at the end of 2024, exports amounted to 129.2 million tons of goods worth $41 billion.
“Even in wartime, Ukrainian businesses continue to export. This confirms not only their resilience but also their ability to adapt to new global realities,” Chyzhykov said.
According to him, the CCI actively supports businesses in matters of certification, technical regulation, and digitalization of export processes.
For more details, see the interview at https://interfax.com.ua/news/interview/1069297.html
