The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its June report has improved the projections for the export of Ukrainian sunflower oil in 2021/22 marketing year (September-August) by 1.02 million tonnes (a rise of 18.9% compared to 2020/21), to 6.4 million tonnes, its production – by 1.05 million tonnes (a rise of 17.7%), to 6.98 million tonnes.
According to a report published on the USDA website, the projection for sunflowerseed production in Ukraine in the current marketing year has been improved by 2.6 million tonnes (a rise of 18.5%), to 16.7 million tonnes.
In its June report, the USDA improved its forecast for Ukraine’s exports of sunflowerseed meal in 2021/22 by 0.7 million tonnes (a rise of 15.2% versus 2020/21), to 5.3 million tonnes, its production – by 1.01 million tonnes (a rise of 17.7%), to 6.71 million tonnes.
According to the USDA, Ukraine in 2021/22 will remain the main world exporter of sun sunflowerseed flower oil, while world production of sunflowerseed oil will grow by 10.2%, to 21.15 million tonnes.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022.
“Considering the fast-paced recovery of the global economy and higherinflationary pressures, the NBU revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022 and settle at this level further on,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
The central bank said that inflation will peak in Q3 2021. Inflation will start to decelerate in autumn, return to the 5% ± 1 pp target range in H1 2022, and subsequently remain there.
The steep rise in inflation was largely driven by temporary factors, such as growing global prices for food and energy. A revival in the global economy and the effects of smaller harvests continued to push up prices. A low comparison base also played an important role.
Underlyinginflationary pressures increased due to sustained growth in consumer demand, which was, among other things, fueled by higher wages, the NBU said.
Retail turnovers consistently exceeded pre-crisis levels, being 5.6% year-over-year larger in February, the central bank said.
Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.9%, up from 4% in the February forecast.
As evidenced by the May forecast, which is available to Interfax-Ukraine, the analysts have worsened their expectations for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 to 3.7% compared to the February forecast being 4.2%, and in 2023 they expect the decline in rates to continue – growth to 2.9%.
Strong growth in industrial production in April, a year after a series of lockdowns, marks a turning point that will see GDP grow by almost 5% this year, and then just over 3.5% in 2022, Oxford Economics said.
At the same time, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate in 2021 is expected at UAH 28.60/$1, in 2022 – UAH 29.30/$1, in 2023 – UAH 29.40/$1, according to Oxford Economics.
The analysts have raised their inflation forecast to 7.2% this year (in the February forecast it was 6.9%), and in the next two years they expect prices to rise by 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively.
The analysts continue to expect the current account to return to a deficit of 1.5% of GDP this year, while in 2020 the current account surplus reached 4% of GDP. According to their estimates, in 2022 and 2023 this indicator will remain in deficit and will amount to 2% and 1.7%, respectively.
Private investment is projected to recover cautiously, so the recovery will be more dependent on household and government spending. However, rising demand will push companies to further expand their production capacity from 2022.
Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit this year to be 4.6%, and in 2022 and 2023 it will decrease to 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively.
At the same time, the analysts predict a reduction in the ratio between public debt and GDP from 59.2% in 2020 to 56% in 2021, as well as to 52.4% and 49.7% in the next two years.
Oxford Economics expects Ukraine to be able to unlock the IMF program in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, political risks remain high, according to the forecast.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture maintains its forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 at 4.6%, Minister Ihor Petrashko, has said, commenting on a statement by Deputy Head of the Office of the President Yulia Svyrydenko about the expected GDP growth of 5.1% in 2021.
“We keep our forecast at 4.6%, the first quarter it is 3% down, so far for the two months it is 2.2% down,” Petrashko said in an exclusive comment to Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday on the sidelines of the Ukraine 30 forum.
This forecast takes into account the risks of additional lockdowns, the minister said.
“We hope that there will be no [strict quarantine restrictions]. Last year we predicted a 4.8% decline of the economy, but in fact we got a drop of 4.2%,” Petrashko said.
“There are no such talks [about an all-Ukrainian lockdown] for the entire Ukraine,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in May improved the forecast for the export of Ukrainian sunflowerseed oil in 2021/2022 (September-August) by 18.9% compared to 2020/21, to 6.4 million tonnes, with an increase in its production by 17.7%, to 6.99 million tonnes. According to the monthly report of the department, in 2021/2022, an increase in sunflowerseed production in Ukraine is expected by 18.4% compared to 2020/2021, to 16.7 million tonnes, sunflowerseed meal exports are expected to grow by 16.4%, to 5.3 million tonnes.
The USDA said that the growth in exports of sunflower oil and meal compared to the low level of the last marketing season will be due to the recovery of oil extraction volumes in Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture also said that Ukraine rapeseed production is forecast to recover from last season’s low level, rising 200,000 tonnes to 3.0 million. Exports are projected to rise 190,000 tonnes to 2.6 million. Exports of rapeseed meal at 175,000 tonnes and oil at 165,000 tonnes are forecast to rise.
J.P. Morgan is committed to its forecast of 5.6% growth for Ukraine’s economy in 2021, despite continuing quarantine restrictions, the bank said in its April commentary.
The bank still believes that in 2021 growth will exceed 5%, mainly due to internal factors, but will also be supported by external demand. As the European and global economy recovers in the second half of 2021, Ukrainian exports should increase in volume and contribute to growth,” the analysts said.
They pointed to good performance in the fourth quarter of last year and strong growth in retail sales, confirming the view that consumption will be an important driver of growth this year as well.
J.P. Morgan said that a serious decline in investment and a reduction in inventories were the main negative factors in the decline in GDP by 4% last year, but this year the situation in these areas will improve. In particular, the analysts expect investments to rebound by almost 30% after falling by more than 24% last year and reaching pre-crisis levels. In their opinion, restocking will provide significant additional impetus to growth in 2021.
According to the bank’s forecast, vaccination will progress very slowly, more than half of the population will be vaccinated by about the middle of 2022; therefore, consumer spending will be mostly domestic.
J.P. Morgan pointed out a possible serious aggravation of the situation with COVID-19 or geopolitical events among the risks.
Commenting on cooperation with the IMF, the analysts maintain expectations that Ukraine will receive financing from the IMF in the third quarter, despite the slow implementation of the commitments. In their opinion, the IMF mission is likely to return in the second quarter of 2021 and among the main issues will be the discussion of the laws on the High Council of Justice, NABU and strengthening responsibility for electronic declarations introduced to the Rada, as well as the preservation of the NBU’s independence. J.P. Morgan also said that U.S. officials named the resumption of cooperation with the IMF and IFIs, as well as reforms in the justice sector, among the conditions of financial support for Ukraine.
Speaking of inflation, the analysts expect it to rise to about 9% by the third quarter of 2021 and increase the key policy rate by the National Bank by 50 basis points – to 7% at the next meeting. In their opinion, further this year the key policy rate will reach 7.5%, and next year – 9.5%. J.P. Morgan believes that 2022 will be more challenging for the NBU, as rather high real interest rates will be required to bring inflation down to 5%, especially given the expected current account deficit compared to a large surplus in 2020.
According to the document, a high GDP deflator (9.8% last year) implies an increase in budget receipts in 2021, in connection with which the analysts predict the budget deficit this year is slightly higher than 4% of GDP compared to 5.5% of GDP in the official forecast.
