As expected, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the discount rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16% per annum, citing sustained fundamental price pressures, secondary effects from supply shocks, and heightened medium-term inflationary risks as the reasons for this decision.
“This decision will support the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets and the stability of the foreign exchange market, which will help keep inflation expectations under control and return inflation to a sustainable downward trajectory toward the 5% target over the policy horizon,” the regulator noted in a press release on Thursday.
It noted that in August, consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year and slightly exceeded the trajectory of the NBU’s July forecast. The regulator attributed this primarily to a stronger-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid the escalation of the war in the Middle East and faster growth in certain administrative tariffs due to the consequences of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure.
The central bank expects inflation to be slightly higher in the coming months than previously projected, but to return to a downward trajectory in 2027.
The regulator also noted that official external financing in July and August was lower than expected, causing international reserves to decline. At the same time, provided Ukraine fulfills its obligations under support programs, a significant portion of the funding should be replenished in the coming months.
Among other risks, the National Bank cited the possible emergence of additional budgetary needs for defense and reconstruction, as well as increased pressure on wages due to labor shortages. At the same time, a deterioration in the security situation could cool consumer demand and the labor market, which would have a disinflationary effect.
“If, in the coming months, the deterioration in the security situation leads to a noticeable cooling of consumer demand and the labor market, the NBU will consider easing monetary conditions,” the press release states.
As previously reported, in late January 2026, the National Bank lowered the discount rate from 15.5% to 15% per annum and subsequently kept it at that level for three consecutive meetings. At its previous meeting in July, the regulator raised the rate by 0.5 percentage points—to 15.5% per annum—in a move that caught the market by surprise, and announced the possibility of another hike before the end of the year.
The NBU will announce the results of the Monetary Policy Committee’s discussion on raising the discount rate to 16% per annum on September 28.
The next meeting of the National Bank’s Board on monetary policy will take place on October 29, 2026.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week increased the sale of dollars on the interbank market by $124.5m, or 21.6%, to $700.9m, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. According to the NBU, for the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of purchase and sale of foreign currency by legal entities increased to $71.3 million from $58.2 million for the same period a week earlier and totaled $285.3 million.
On the market of foreign exchange transactions of households, the negative balance, on the contrary, decreased to $33.4 million on Saturday-Thursday from $43.4 million the week before last, and all days the sale of non-cash currency exceeded its purchase.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at UAH 41.9782/$1, weakened to UAH 42.0641/$1 in three days, but ended the week at UAH 42.0423/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week changed over the trajectory of the official one, and in general, the dollar rose by about 12 kopecks during the week: buying – to UAH 41.86/$1, and selling – to UAH 42.23/$1.
Analysts of the multi-service FinTech platform KYT Group, which is a major player in the cash FX market, noted a gradual depreciation of the hryvnia, but under full control of the National Bank, which is helped by record international reserves and last week’s receipt of another EUR5.9 bln from the EU.
According to their forecast, short-term (1-2 weeks) the hryvnia will be in the base range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1 with likely gravitating towards the upper boundary of the forecast.
“Medium-term (2-3 months) – 42.0-42.9 UAH/$1. Now there is every reason to strengthen the dollar in the international market, where positive sentiment reigns because of the understandable easing policy from the Fed. But for Ukraine the main role will be played by such factors as the situation in the energy sector, further possible advances of the RF Armed Forces troops on the territory of the country and stability of financial aid receipts from partners”, – KYT Group believes.
Long-term (6+ months), the company maintains the forecast scenario of hryvnia devaluation. Subject to timely and rhythmic receipt of international aid, they cite as a benchmark range of 43.40-44.60 UAH/$1 until mid-2026, taking into account the current context of the military and political situation in Ukraine.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1120665.html
In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 61.5 million tons from 57.9 million tons in its July report, but lowered its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
“According to the NBU’s assumptions, in 2026-2027, grain and legume harvests will grow thanks to further increases in agricultural productivity and an increase in corn and other grain crops in regions less affected by climate change,” the document says.
However, according to the National Bank, the harvest of oilseeds, which are mainly grown in the southern regions, will be lower due to the negative impact of climate change, exacerbated by the long-term consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant for the region’s irrigation systems.
“The security situation in the frontline regions of the south will continue to have an impact, worsening conditions for the 2026 sowing campaign and slowing down the pace of land demining,” the report also says.
As a result, the National Bank has improved its grain harvest forecast for 2026 from 59.6 million tons to 62.9 million tons, and for 2027 from 60.4 million tons to 63.5 million tons.
At the same time, oilseed harvest expectations have been reduced to 21.4 million tons next year from 22.0 million tons, and to 22.2 million tons in 2027 from 22.8 million tons.
“However, the NBU expects the livestock sector to continue to make a negative contribution to agricultural value added due to a further reduction in livestock numbers (with the exception of poultry),” the report also notes.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of early crops (wheat, barley, rapeseed, legumes) as of October 1, 2025, reached 32.6 million tons, while the 2024 harvest yielded 31.9 million tons (+2.1%). The current growth is primarily due to higher yields of wheat (+3.9%) and legumes (+35%), while the barley harvest has practically reached last year’s level (-0.6%), and the rapeseed harvest is 10.7% lower than last year.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center made a video analysis of wheat production by the world’s leading countries for the period 1991-2024.
The chairman of the supervisory board of SK Veles (Odessa), Suren Sardaryan (who owns 56.249% of the insurer’s shares), and member of the supervisory board Karini Sardaryan (42.918%) have submitted their resignations. This was reported in the company’s information posted on the NSSMC information system. It is also specified that they held these positions from April 28, 2023, to May 16, 2025, and are currently vacant.
As reported, on May 5, 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine imposed sanctions on Veles Insurance Company (Odessa) for submitting its 2024 financial statements to the NBU after the deadline.
Veles Insurance Company has been operating in the market since 1998. It has 15 licenses for voluntary and compulsory types of insurance. It is a member of the Insurance Business Association. Its authorized capital is UAH 39 million.
member of the supervisory board, NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, Veles Insurance Company
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its forecast for the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% thanks to rapid repairs and the development of distributed generation.
“Quick repairs to maneuverable generation and energy infrastructure, the development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacity, against the backdrop of sustained electricity imports, allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU stated in its Inflation Report for April 2025, comparing it with the January report.
According to Nabank, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, the report states that the impact of energy supply constraints on real GDP growth will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas generation facilities connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 12 kopecks after the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate rose by 8 kopecks on Thursday. – to 41.4313 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
“The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the discount rate on March 6 and the US Fed policy,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.
In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in spring, in particular, if the foreign trade deficit grows. Analysts forecast an average corridor for the U.S. dollar in the range of UAH 42.50-44.00/$1.
“The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and the growth of the budget deficit,” KYT Group said.
The hryvnia-US dollar exchange rate will be at 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, experts believe.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.4341 UAH/$1 at 12:00 Friday against 41.5274 UAH/$1 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the dollar in the cash market has fallen in price today: when buying its rate decreased by 3 copecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling – by 1 copeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual indicator of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of UAH 45/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6% or UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1051560.html
