Ukraine’s total public debt in August 2023 increased by 3.1% to a new historic high: in dollar terms – by $4bn to $132.92bn, in hryvnia terms – by UAH 146.2bn to UAH 4 trillion 860.6bn, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
According to them, the direct state debt increased by 3.3% to $123.63 billion, or up to UAH 4 trillion 521.1 billion, and amounted to 93.0% of the total amount of public and state-guaranteed debt.
It is reported that external direct debt in August increased by 4.4%, or $3.52 billion, to $83.41 billion, while domestic direct debt increased by 1.1%, or UAH 15.8 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 470.75 billion (equivalent to $40.22 billion).
The total external public debt of Ukraine in August-2023 increased by 4.1%, or $3.58 billion, to $90.77 billion, while the total domestic debt increased by 1.0%, or UAH 15.2 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 541.4 billion.
As a result, the share of total external government debt increased to 68.3%.
As a result, the share of total external government debt rose to 68.3%.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of August rose to 28.36%, in U.S. dollars – to 26.66%, while in hryvnia decreased to 28.87%, in SDR – to 12.89%, in Canadian dollars – to 2.48%, and in yen and British pounds remained at 0.72% and 0.02%, respectively.
The office also clarified that 64.86% of government debt has a fixed interest rate, while 12.89% is pegged to the IMF rate, 7.85% to SOFR, 3.88% to EURIBOR and 0.72% to TORF.
Another 2.99% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, while 6.49% is tied to the NBU discount rate. We are talking about government bonds from the portfolio of the National Bank. The newest of them were securities linked to the discount rate, which were purchased by the NBU within the framework of emission financing of the budget.
Finally, 0.31% of government debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of interest rates on individual deposits, used in portfolio guarantee programs.
As reported, Ukraine’s public and state-guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion to $111.45 billion in 2022. In the first eight months of this year, the state debt increased by $21.47 billion, or 19.3%.
In the framework of the first revision of the EFF extended financing program with Ukraine at the end of June, the IMF significantly improved the forecast of the government debt growth this year – from 98.3% of GDP to 88.1% of GDP, including by revising its estimate for the end of last year from 81.7% of GDP to 78.5% of GDP.
Experts Club Research Project and Maxim Urakin recently released an analytical video about the economy of Ukraine and the world:
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel by following the link – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The YouTube channel “Experts Club” has published a new video in which the founder of this think tank, Maksym Urakin, provides his analysis of Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators and the state of the global economy in the first half of 2023.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Speaking about the demographic factor in the development of the Ukrainian economy, the expert cited data from the Opendatabot portal, which shows that the birth rate in the country continues to decline. According to these data, about 97 thousand children were born in the first half of 2023, which is 28% less than in the same period of 2021.
“The birth rate has been declining by about 7% annually since 2013. However, the full-scale war has aggravated the situation, causing the largest crisis in natural population growth. The demography of our country continues to be under pressure due to the current circumstances,” said Maksym Urakin.
According to him, in the first half of 2023, the number of marriages fell by 17% compared to the same period last year, while the number of divorces increased by a third, especially in Kyiv.
Economic recovery
Turning to the macroeconomic sphere, the economist emphasized that the Ukrainian economy has started to show signs of recovery.
“According to the NBU, Ukraine’s economy grew by 18.3% in the second quarter relative to the same period last year. This growth is relative to the period of the greatest decline at the beginning of the war.”, – said the founder of the club of experts.
Nevertheless, Maxim Urakin expressed concerns about the long-term outlook.
“Despite the current positive trend, the main risk for the Ukrainian economy continues to be related to the duration and intensity of the war. This may complicate the recovery, as well as cause problems with inflation and currency exchange rate,” Urakin noted.
According to him, the main negative factors affecting economic activity are a decrease or instability of international aid, as well as possible further destruction of energy infrastructure and problems with electricity supply in the fall and winter period.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maxim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of growth of the negative balance of foreign trade, which has been noted since the beginning of the war.
“The country’s negative foreign trade balance continues to grow, reaching $9 billion in the first five months of this year, according to Gosstat estimates. This suggests that Ukraine is spending more currency on importing goods than it earns from exporting them. We see a sharp drop in exports of mineral products by 39.3%, ferrous and non-ferrous metals by 21.4%, wood and wood products by 17.7%, machinery products by 18.2%, chemical industry by 21.4% and other industrial goods by 4.1%,” – said the candidate of economic sciences.
However, not all the news in this sphere was pessimistic. Urakin emphasized the growth of food exports by 9.9%, which indicates the potential of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex, which will probably become one of the main drivers of the country’s economic recovery in the coming years.
As for the balance of foreign trade in services, although still negative, the pace of its reduction gave some grounds for optimism.
“We see that the deficit of foreign trade in services is shrinking, which may indicate a gradual recovery of some service sectors in Ukraine,” the expert concluded.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
However, equally important aspects of the economy, according to the expert, are government debt, international reserves and inflation.
“The country’s public debt continues to increase its volume. By the middle of 2023 he Ukraine approached the mark of 140 billion dollars. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecasts on the level of the country’s public debt, reducing it from 98.3% of GDP to 88.1% of GDP. Despite this ‘positive’ realistic revision, this level of debt represents a significant burden for the national economy,” Maxim Urakin said.
The main source of financing of Ukraine’s budget, according to the expert, is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed by taxes and fees, while the rest comes from international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
Nevertheless, the country’s international reserves have shown positive dynamics.
“By August this year, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a record $41.72bn, which is 6.9% higher than the previous record. This increase is probably the result of active external financial support,” the analyst said.
As for inflation, it showed a slowdown. “After a record 27% inflation in 2022, this indicator fell to close to 4% in July this year,” Urakin noted.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the “Experts Club”, continues to be complex and multifaceted, requiring careful monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
World economy in 2023: analysis and forecasts
In the last presented studies of the “Experts Club” the economic situation in Ukraine was actively considered, however, according to Maxim Urakin, the dynamics of the world economy also has a significant impact on our country. According to the latest data, the world economy shows stable signs of growth, but there are also certain risks.
“The IMF has recently provided its forecasts for global economic growth. A growth of 3% is forecast for 2023 and the same is expected in 2024. The decisions taken by the US to resolve issues related to the level of public debt, as well as active actions in the US and Swiss banking sectors, have helped to reduce the immediate risks of a crisis in the global financial market. However, as the IMF emphasized, “the balance of risks remains tilted towards a possible deterioration of the economic situation at the global level,” the economist explained.
Inflation continues to be in the center of experts’ attention. Although the IMF lowered its inflation forecast for the current year to 6.8%, expectations for 2024 were adjusted upward.
Based on this information, Maxim Urakin concludes that the global economy is on the way to stabilization, but the situation remains ambiguous due to a number of uncertain factors. It is important for countries and their economies interacting in the global market to monitor changes and prepare for possible challenges.
Economic development in individual countries
According to the founder of the “Experts Club”, the global economy in 2023 is showing mixed results. While some countries are overcoming the effects of the pandemic and are on the path to stable growth, others are facing challenges from internal and external factors.
“The U.S. economy exceeded expectations, posting above-forecast growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending and government spending also showed solid growth, but residential investment continues to decline. China, which is on the road to recovery from the pandemic, showed strong economic growth, although the construction industry continues to experience a crisis. The Eurozone has shown moderate growth, with the region’s largest economy, Germany, facing recession. At the same time, the UK and Japan have positive adjustments to their GDP forecasts. India continues to strengthen its economic position, showing dynamic growth. Meanwhile, Brazil, although showing growth in the current year, expects a decline by 2024,” summarized the expert.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
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ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, REVIEW_OF_ECONOMICS, URAKIN, WORLD_ECONOMY
On August 19-20, the capital’s SPORT LIFE fitness center became the main competition arena for squash fans from all over Ukraine and the world. The Zenit Ukraine Open 2023 charity tournament brought together more than 100 players who came from Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Kherson and Odesa, as well as from France, the USA, Turkey and Moldova.
The participants competed in various categories ranging from Lady B to Men A. The winners in their categories were:
Lady B category:
Anetta Siganevich
Veronika Levkivska
Yulia Yakimova
Lady A category:
Daria Vlasenko
Tatiana Stanko
Veronika Usenko
Category Men D:
Roman Popov
Anton Babushko
Stepan Kobzev
Category Men C:
Anton Skaballanovich
Kirill Leonov
Araik Sargsyan
Category Men B:
Maxim Shumelda
Rostyslav Zavinskyi
Dmytro Baluta
Category Men A:
Nikita Panov
Ruslan Petrovych
Maxim Tokar
After the sports part, the winners were awarded at the Brugge restaurant, where a charity auction and a patriotic buffet were also held. The joint efforts of the participants and the host Andriy Dzhedzhula raised over UAH 100,000. These funds will be used to support squash players and the army.
The event could not have become so bright and successful without the support of partners and sponsors:
The main fitness partner “SPORT LIFE“;
The event was organized by the Ukrainian Squash Federation;
Information partner – Interfax Ukraine news agency, Open4Business;
Official sponsor – Experts Club;
Medical partner – Adonis chain of clinics;
Partner of the award ceremony – “VILLA TINTA”;
Prizes and gifts were presented by Sport Life, Reima and Tecnifibre;
The official water of the tournament is KRAINA;
Beer for participants and guests was provided by TERMO-PAB;
All tournament guests were accommodated at FAVOR HOTEL;
The award ceremony and party were held in partnership with the BRUGGE restaurant.
The tournament confirmed that charity and sport can go hand in hand, bringing joy and helping people.
Source https://interfax.com.ua/news/press-release/930405.html
BLAGOPOLETNY, FESTIVAL, PECHENOK, SHCHERBAKOV, UMAN, URAKIN, WINE, ФСУ
The festival was held at the Forest Club Sherwood hotel and restaurant complex. The event was attended by well-known Ukrainian wineries: TM My Wine, SHABO, BOLGRAD, Cotnar, Villa Tinta, and Vladyslav Zakrevsky’s winery. Also represented were Honey Badger liqueurs and tinctures, White Church Distillery, Osnova cheese factory, Zinka TM, Kozatski Kozyrni Syry, producers of meat chips and snacks Snacks by Bandera, and others.
Interesting lectures for visitors were held at the festivals. Visitors were introduced to the world of winemaking: Liudmyla Boiko, chief technologist of the Honey Badger family enterprise; Stepan and Olha Kutsipak, owners of the Snacks by Bandera brand; Natalia Blahopoluchna, president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers, head of the first Ukrainian sommelier school “Master Class”; Bogdan Panchuk, brand ambassador of Leleka Wines; Eduard Gorodetsky, founder of Tiras Winery; Natalia Burlachenko, sommelier and brand ambassador of Vinos de la Luz; Vita Oliynyk, representative of Zinka TM. The event was also attended by Ricardo Fernandez Nunez, the owner of Vinos de la Luz group of companies.
In addition to wine lectures, visitors were able to attend a master class “How to open champagne with a glass or modern sabrage” by Mykola Blagopoluchny, head of the Master Class sommelier school and director of the All-Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers.
The highlight of the first day of the festival was a soulful concert by Ukrainian singer PIANOBOY.
On July 30, the festival hosted a roundtable discussion on the development of winemaking and viticulture in Ukraine during the war. The participants were Ihor Vishtak, Director of the Crop Production Department of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine; Volodymyr Pechko, Head of the UKRSADVINPROM NGO; Iryna Kovaleva, Director of the V.E. Tairov Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club. Maxim Urakin, founder of the analytical center “Club of Experts”, publisher, marketing director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency; Yegor Belov, chef-sommelier of the InterContinental Kyiv hotel, winner of the All-Ukrainian Sommelier Competition 2018; Dmytro Saprykin, brand ambassador of Alcoline and Oleg Antipin, brand ambassador of SHABO; Konstantin Tintulov, commercial director and co-owner of Vinhol Oksamytne LLC.
The roundtable was also attended by Dmytro Natalukha, a Ukrainian politician and public figure, Member of the Parliament of Ukraine of the IX convocation, lawyer, human rights activist, Chairman of the Committee on Economic Development in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the IX convocation. Member of the parliamentary faction of the Servant of the People political party. Deputy Member of the Permanent Delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Co-chair of the group on interparliamentary relations with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The roundtable ended with a pre-premiere screening of the movie Wounded Land. This is a documentary about the stories of Ukrainian winemakers who have suffered from Russian aggression. The film was directed and co-produced by Roman Zayats, the founder of the Heartland project.
The festival has a charitable component. Charity auctions and fundraisers were held for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The event raised UAH 142,050! The main lot of the festival – a unique wine from Vinos de La Luz with a label of Ivan Marchuk’s painting – was sold for UAH 120 thousand. The funds raised were distributed as follows:
UAH 120,000 was donated for the treatment of cancer to Serhiy Kovalenko, a veteran of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a well-known winemaker.
UAH 22050 was donated to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Consumer tasting was held during the two days of the event. Visitors of the event chose the best wine. Wines from TM My Wine won the Consumer Choice competition.
The event was organized by Focus event.
The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
In the first quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s real GDP fell by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022, after falling by 31.4% in the fourth quarter, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter, and 14.9% in the first quarter of last year.
Overall, analysts expect modest GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023. Thus, the World Bank slightly downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 2% from 3.3%, which it predicted in January 2023. Raiffeisen Bank maintained its forecast of 1.8% growth in Ukraine’s gross domestic product for 2023.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Kyiv-based think tank Club of Experts, drew attention to key macroeconomic indicators. “Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have stabilized, and international reserves due to borrowings are breaking records, but Ukraine’s negative foreign trade balance is having a negative impact on the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
Inflation in Ukraine will decline to 15.5% in 2023, and real incomes will increase by 1%, according to the updated improved forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the first review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program.
Ukraine’s total public debt grew by 3.6% and reached a new historical high: in dollar terms, by $4.37 billion to $124.28 billion, and in hryvnia terms, by UAH 159.9 billion to UAH 4 trillion 544.9 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance website.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves as of June 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $37 billion 311.3 million, up 4% or $1.358 billion in May, and have updated an 11-year high, the National Bank reported.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2023 accelerated to 0.5% from 0.2% in April after slowing from 1.5% in March, 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January.
In January-April 2023, Ukraine reduced electricity production by 19.4% (by 8.8 billion kWh) compared to the same period in 2022, to 36.5 billion kWh.
On Friday, July 31, the conference hall of the Kyiv-based think tank Experts Club hosted the fourth scientific and practical seminar-tasting of vintage drinks for people aged 20 to 80. The event was attended by Ukrainian and international wine experts, retailers and media representatives. Ricardo Nuñez, one of the world’s leading winemakers and an investor in the Ukrainian wine industry, was the guest of honor.
Igor Magalyas, a leading expert collector of vintage alcoholic beverages, introduced the participants to his collection, which includes the most popular Ukrainian and European brands of wines and brandies, including:
1. Italian wine Muscat, produced in 1999, which has a unique bouquet, characterized by luxury and depth.
2. Black Doctor 2005 – a wine with a wonderful multi-component aroma, which harmoniously combines the tones of dark grapes.
3. Massandra sherry made in 1983 is a unique wine from the Crimea, famous for its palette of aromas and flavors.
4. Sicilian semi-dry Marsala of the 1990s – this drink gives off a feeling of rich flavor, complemented by notes of cherry, fruit and vanilla. Marsala is considered one of the most famous Italian wines and is a symbol of Sicilian winemaking.
5. Green apple liqueur from the 1970s – this drink is attractive for its fresh and fruity aroma, with a balance of acid and sweetness. Its unique flavor evokes memories of summer, green apples and outdoor picnics.
6. Apricot liqueur of the 1980s is a sweet, but not over-colored drink that explodes with natural apricot flavors.
7. Poncho 1974 is a citrus alcoholic beverage with a unique flavor bouquet that combines the acidity of lemon, orange and grapefruit with light notes of spices. Made according to a traditional recipe, Poncho is a classic of cocktail culture.
8. Bobadilla 103 Sherry Brandy 1977 – with an unsurpassed bouquet of vanilla, caramel and nuts, this brandy is a model of sherry style. It has a balance between sweet and dry, with a rich and intense flavor.
9. Terry Centenario Sherry Brandy 1975 is a perfect representative of Spanish sherry, known for its deep aroma, with notes of nuts, fruits and spices. Its rich, delicious flavor and long aftertaste are the unique features of this exceptional drink.
10. Sherry brandy from the 1950s is a true relic of the past, with a rich and intense flavor that includes notes of caramel, nuts and dried fruit. This old sherry brandy is a reminder of the long and glorious history of winemaking in Spain.
The most intriguing part of the tasting was the rare dessert drinks, which are a real “living museum” of the alcohol industry of the 1970s. These are four special drinks: grapes, cherries, plums and raisins infused in different types of brandy and liqueurs. Among them, the Muscat raisin grappa was especially appreciated by experts, as it is distinguished by its unique bouquet.
High-quality gastronomic pairings for the drinks presented during the tasting program were provided by one of the best Ukrainian meat producers, Karapyshivski Kovbasy, a trademark of the company.
Igor Magalyas noted that all the presented drinks are in an affordable price segment, and their cost does not exceed the cost of modern vintage alcohol in Ukrainian supermarkets.
“These drinks were purchased by collectors in Europe at auctions or sales of private collections. They have a number of flavor and quality advantages over modern drinks,” he said.
Maxim Urakin, the event’s organizer, emphasized the importance of systemic support for Ukrainian winemaking.
“Long-standing Ukrainian-made beverages have traditionally been at the top of our experts’ preferences. However, without new systemic efforts by the government to support the industry, the situation will deteriorate. That’s why the Club of Experts analyzes the situation and provides its proposals in this regard,” emphasized Maxim Urakin.
ALCOHOL, CLUB_OF_EXPERTS, EUROPEAN_WINE, KOROPYSHIVSKI_SAUSAGES, MAGALIES, RICARDO_NUNEZ, SEMINAR, TASTING, UKRAINIAN_WINE, URAKIN, WINE, WINE_INDUSTRY, WINEMAKING
