Retail prices for automotive liquefied petroleum gas in Ukraine may rise to 66 UAH per liter at certain gas station chains in the second half of November 2026 due to a global shortage of the resource, rising import costs, and logistical challenges.
This was reported by the “A-95” Consulting Group in a press release dated November 6, based on the results of monitoring the Ukrainian and European fuel markets.
According to analysts, during October, the average retail price of autogas in Ukraine increased by 13.75 UAH/liter, to 57.66 UAH/liter. Thus, in just one month, the price of the fuel rose by approximately 31%.
As of November 6, the average price of liquefied gas at Ukrainian gas stations approached 60 UAH/liter.
Experts cite limited supply of propane and butane on the global market as the main reason for the price increase. Reduced production in the Gulf countries and disruptions to maritime transport due to security risks have led to a decrease in supplies from the Middle East.
As a result, Asian buyers, who traditionally purchase significant volumes of liquefied gas in this region, have begun to compete more actively with European consumers for American supplies.
At the same time, on the Ukrainian market, additional pressure on prices is being created by a shortage of liquefied gas in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania, which are the main sources of autogas imports into Ukraine.
The situation is complicated by rising transportation costs due to security risks in the Black Sea and queues at road border crossings.
According to “A-95,” as of November 6, offer prices for imported autogas at the Polish-Ukrainian border exceeded $1,500 per metric ton. At southern border crossings, the wholesale price also approached $1,500 per metric ton.
“Given the current offer prices for imported autogas, prices at certain gas station chains may rise to 66 UAH/liter in the second half of the month,” the “A-95” Consulting Group notes.
The forecast refers to possible price levels at specific chains, not the average price of autogas across Ukraine.
The “A-95” Consulting Group specializes in research on the Ukrainian petroleum products market, price monitoring, and analysis of fuel imports and fuel logistics.
According to Experts.news, prices for gasoline and motor oils for private vehicles in European Union countries rose by 31.4% in September 2026 compared to September of last year, the EU’s statistical office (Eurostat) reported.
The largest price increases were recorded in Bulgaria (+42.2%), Estonia (+40.6%), and Lithuania (+40.2%). The lowest rates of price growth were observed in Hungary (+6.9%), Ireland (+17.7%), and Sweden (+19.9%).
Ranking of EU countries by fuel price inflation in September 2026, % year-over-year:
1. Bulgaria — +42.2%
2. Estonia — +40.6%
3. Lithuania — +40.2%
4. Czech Republic — +37.5% 5–15. Other EU countries with increases exceeding 30% — according to Eurostat, there were 15 such countries in total, including Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic.
5. Portugal — +30.3%
6. Sweden — +19.9%
7. Ireland — +17.7%
8. Hungary — +6.9%
According to Eurostat, in September, compared to August, diesel prices in the EU rose by 5.9%, and gasoline prices by 6.7%. In August, the corresponding increases were 8.3% and 3.3%.
According to Ukrainian retail price monitoring data, the average price of A-95 gasoline in Ukraine at the end of September was approximately 89.3 UAH per liter, and diesel fuel was 98.4 UAH per liter. At the beginning of the month, these figures were approximately 80.3 UAH and 91.4 UAH per liter, respectively.
Thus, during September, A-95 gasoline rose in price by approximately 11.1%, and diesel fuel by 7.7%.
At the same time, these figures reflect price changes over the course of a single month, whereas the Eurostat ranking cited is based on annual trends. Therefore, without comparable data for September 2025, it is incorrect to include Ukraine in the overall ranking of countries based on annual rate of price increases.
Total operating tax payments (excluding fuel excise taxes and customs duties) in January–June 2026 amounted to 8.727 billion UAH, which is 15.8% more than in the same period of 2025 and 58% more than in the first half of 2024.
This was reported by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95 Consulting Group,” citing data from the Verkhovna Rada’s Temporary Investigative Commission on Economic Security.
“Perhaps the most telling indicator of fuel chains’ gradual emergence from the ‘shadow economy’ is the trend in the payment of ‘wage’ taxes (personal income tax and unified social tax) and, accordingly, the growth in official salaries,” – he wrote in “DT” on October 20.
Overall, according to the expert, payroll tax payments among the top 40 gas station chains rose by 82%—from 1.993 billion to 3.618 billion hryvnias in the first half of 2024 and 2026, respectively. And the average calculated salary of employees for the comparable periods increased from 12,100 to 22,700 UAH per month, or by 88%.
“These figures indicate that just two years ago, this industry predominantly paid ‘under the table.’ There were those who officially paid even less than the state-mandated minimum wage. However, some progress has been made,” Kuyun noted.
According to him, the market was forced to revise its “wage” practices in 2025, when “economic” retention of employees began, particularly for companies in the fuel and energy sector. One of the criteria is an official salary per legal entity of at least 20,000 UAH, which the government raised on September 1 of this year to three times the minimum wage—25,941 UAH.
As the expert explained, another interesting indicator of the fuel market is the income tax (IT), which, until December 2024, the vast majority of gas station chains either did not pay at all or paid only a nominal amount. It is for this very reason that the government and parliament established a fixed fee—an advance payment on corporate income tax that is non-refundable regardless of business performance. The base payment is 60,000 UAH per month, which applies to many fuel stations.
“The result speaks for itself: in the first half of 2026, the top 40 chains paid 1.72 billion UAH in corporate income tax (CIT), which is 70% more than during the same period in 2024—that is, before the advance CIT was introduced,” emphasized the director of “A-95.”
According to him, the situation in the industry is currently deteriorating due to intensified attacks by the aggressor, as well as damage to and destruction of assets. At the same time, government pressure on fuel prices is becoming increasingly evident. Statistics show that, despite rising costs, gas stations’ markups on diesel and gasoline remained stable from 2024 to 2026.
“All of this could lead to a decline in tax revenue. On the other hand, as the figures show, there is potential for further reduction of the shadow economy,” Kuyun believes.
A-95, FUEL, GAS STATIONS, reduction of the shadow economy, SALARY, TAXES, КУЮН
Prices for both types of diesel fuel, as well as autogas, continue to rise, according to monitoring of a number of filling station chains conducted since February 2026 by the Energoreforma internet portal.
According to the monitoring data, as of October 20, compared with October 16, the price of diesel fuel and diesel fuel+ increased by UAH 1–3 per liter, while autogas rose in price by UAH 1.6–3.5 per liter. At the same time, the price of regular diesel at state-owned UKRNAFTA reached UAH 99.9 per liter.
Gasoline prices have remained largely stable for several weeks.
Fuel prices (average) as of 10:00 a.m. on October 20 compared with October 16 (based on Energoreforma’s monitoring of filling station chains’ websites and applications)
| Chain | 95 (UAH/l) | Premium 95 (UAH/l) | Diesel fuel (UAH/l) | Premium diesel fuel (UAH/l) | Gas (UAH/l) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UKRNAFTA | 88.90 (88.90) | 91.90 (91.90) | 99.90 (98.90) | 101.90 (100.90) | 49.90 (47.90) |
| UPG | 88.90 (88.90) | 91.90 (91.90) | 101.90 (99.90) | 103.90 (101.90) | 51.50 (49.90) |
| OKKO | 92.90 (92.90) | 95.90 (95.90) | 104.90 (101.90) | 107.90 (104.90) | 51.90 (49.90) |
| WOG | 92.90 (92.90) | 95.90 (95.90) | 104.50 (102.50) | 107.50 (105.50) | 52.50 (50.50) |
| SOCAR | 94.90 (94.90) | 97.90 (97.90) | 105.00 (105.00) | 108.00 (106.00) | 54.40 (50.90) |
As reported, on September 21, SOCAR was the first filling station chain to “release” the price of diesel fuel, raising it to UAH 103 per liter and UAH 104 per liter for regular diesel and diesel+, respectively.
On September 25, WOG and OKKO raised the price of premium diesel above UAH 100 per liter, from UAH 99.9 per liter to UAH 102.9 per liter, while the price of regular diesel fuel remained at UAH 99.9 per liter.
Dmytro Leushkin, founder and CEO of Prime Group, explained at the time that diesel fuel prices should already have exceeded UAH 100 per liter several days earlier, but there was an unofficial request from the government to restrain them.
On October 15, a number of filling station chains exceeded the UAH 100 per liter mark for regular diesel fuel, whose price had long been kept at UAH 99.9 per liter. A distinctive feature of that day was that the state-owned UKRNAFTA chain, which serves as a kind of “price restraint mechanism,” set the price of diesel fuel+ at UAH 100.9 per liter.
At the same time, autogas became more expensive again at almost all the chains monitored, increasing by between UAH 0.6 and UAH 2 per liter.
Several days earlier, Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group, had forecast that autogas prices would rise by approximately 10% over the following 7–10 days due to an increase in global prices.
At that time, he also drew attention to the rise in diesel fuel quotations on London’s ICE exchange to $1,483 per tonne (an increase of more than $100 per tonne), noting that such a jump had dashed hopes of stabilizing prices for this type of fuel.
Kuyun also emphasized that retail prices for regular diesel at filling station chains were lower than wholesale prices, which, in particular, stood at UAH 101 per liter in the central part of the country. According to him, at such wholesale prices, the price at the pump should be at least UAH 105–106 per liter. At the same time, he pointed out that there was no fuel shortage in Ukraine.
autogas, DIESEL FUEL, FILLING STATIONS, FUEL, FUEL PRICES, UKRAINE
In September 2026, Ukraine imported 537,000 metric tons of diesel fuel, which is 21% less than in the same month of 2025 and 9% lower than in August, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group.
Since the beginning of the year, diesel fuel imports have reached 4.7 million metric tons, which is 3% higher than the January–September figure from last year.
The main feature of September was unusually weak demand. A-95 attributes this, in particular, to massive attacks on industrial enterprises, as well as to problems with the export of agricultural products from the new harvest, including disruptions in maritime logistics.
“We do not yet have precise data, but there are all signs that retail sales of diesel fuel have also declined due to record prices caused by unprecedented global market rates,” note analysts at “A-95”.
The decline in demand is also confirmed by supply trends in the third quarter. During this period, approximately 1.7 million metric tons of diesel fuel were imported into Ukraine, which is about 10% less than a year earlier.
According to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, the Ukrainian fuel market continues to operate amid unprecedented logistical and pricing challenges related to the war.
“The fuel market continues to face unprecedented difficulties caused by Russian attacks. Importers are actively developing new logistics channels and expanding their fleets, particularly of gasoline tankers,” the company notes.
The “A-95” consulting group specializes in research on the Ukrainian petroleum products market, price monitoring, logistics, and resource supply for the fuel market. Its director is Serhiy Kuyun.
According to Experts.news, gasoline imports to Ukraine in September 2026 totaled 145,000 metric tons, which is 5% less than in August but 3% higher than in September of last year, the A-95 Consulting Group reported based on the results of a special study.
From January through September, Ukraine imported 1.26 million metric tons of gasoline—15% more than during the same period in 2025.
“The decline in gasoline supplies in September occurred against the backdrop of a seasonal drop in consumption. Demand was also weighed down by this year’s record-high retail prices, which prompted car owners to conserve fuel,” the A-95 Consulting Group reported.
Lithuania remained the largest source of gasoline supplies in September, accounting for 46,400 metric tons, or 32% of the total volume. Compared to August, supplies fell by 10.4%.
Poland ranked second with 36,800 metric tons, or 25% of Ukraine’s imports. A month earlier, 40,100 metric tons were supplied from that country.
Thus, the combined share of Lithuania and Poland in September fell from 60% to 57%. Supplies from the largest supplier—the ORLEN Group—from these two countries decreased from 78,800 to 67,800 metric tons. Despite the decline, ORLEN accounted for about 47% of all Ukrainian gasoline imports.
At the same time, the geography of supplies changed. Imports from Germany fell by 25% compared to August—to 13,600 metric tons. Of this volume, 8,300 metric tons, or 61%, were imported by the UPG network.
At the same time, the share of southern supplies increased. Gasoline shipments from Romania rose by 29%—from 23.4 thousand to 30.1 thousand metric tons. As a result, Romania moved into third place among supplier countries and accounted for over 20% of September’s imports.
Supplies from Greece, on the other hand, fell by 28%—from 15,000 to 10,800 metric tons. Imports from Moldova more than doubled—from 1,900 to 4,100 metric tons.
Thus, despite the decline in total imports in September, shipments remain higher than last year’s level, and in the first nine months of 2026, Ukraine imported 15% more gasoline than in the same period a year earlier.
Source: A-95 Consulting Group.
