The difficult situation in the ports of Odessa and logistics problems are limiting activity in the oilseed sector in Ukraine, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“Russian army missile attacks on Ukrainian ports, damage to terminals, warehouses, and other infrastructure will cause a reduction in shipments in the coming months and may destabilize the situation on the global agricultural market,” analysts explained.
They noted that last week, price growth on the Ukrainian soybean export market stalled, which was due to both missile attacks on ports and pressure from the global market, despite the fact that demand for Ukrainian soybeans remained quite high and export rates grew in the first half of December.
Experts added that demand prices for GM soybeans in Ukrainian ports remained at their highest levels since August 2024 – $420-425 per ton (CPT port).
“The European Union has finally postponed the implementation of the EUDR regulation for another year, which will allow companies to increase supplies of soybeans and soybean meal in this direction,” APK-Inform predicts.
In January-November 2025, Ukraine imported 44.18 thousand tons of coffee and 10.21 thousand tons of tea, which is 0.6% and 13.3% less than in the same period of 2024, according to the State Customs Service.
According to published statistics, in monetary terms, coffee imports increased by 39.2% to $352.18 million compared to $252.97 million for the same period a year earlier.
The main suppliers of coffee to Ukraine in the first 11 months of this year were Poland, which accounted for 15.5% of imports, or $54.67 million in monetary terms, Germany – 13.1% and $46.24 million, and Italy – 11.9% and $41.86 million.
A year earlier, the top three coffee suppliers to Ukraine for the corresponding period remained unchanged, except for their share in supplies: Poland (16.2%, $41.07 million), Italy (15.3%, $38.63 million), and Germany (13.1%, $33.09 million).
Tea imports during January-November 2025 decreased by 11.9% in monetary terms, to $38.92 million, compared to $44.19 million last year.
At the same time, the top three tea suppliers to Ukraine for the first 11 months of this year remained unchanged: Sri Lanka (30.3% or $11.8 million), Kenya (17.6% or $6.86 million), and China (12.5% or $4.85 million). Last year, these countries accounted for 31.6%, 20.1%, and 10.8% of the market, with tea supplies to Ukraine bringing them $13.96 million, $8.87 million, and $4.791 million, respectively.
Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykola Trofimenko expects that after the war ends, the number of foreign students in Ukraine may grow to 100,000.
“Today, our universities combine many areas of study, including those that are important for society, such as resilience. Europeans cannot understand this. And this, by the way, is one of the factors that will contribute to an increase in the number of foreigners after the war ends. Because now we have 20,000 foreigners studying here, and before the full-scale war there were about 80,000. The goal is to recover after the war ends to 100,000 foreign students,” Trofimenko said in an exclusive interview with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
He stressed that everything must be done to ensure that our universities maintain this network of contacts and their ability to teach foreigners.
“And after the war ends, we will see a significant recovery in the number of foreign citizens who will receive education at our Ukrainian universities,” the deputy minister added.
As reported, in 2025, 5,475 foreign students were enrolled in Ukrainian higher education institutions, which is 534 more than in 2024 (4,941).
The draft law proposed by the Ministry of Finance “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine Regarding the Registration of Single Tax Payers as Value Added Tax Payers,” which changes the system for sole proprietors by introducing VAT for them, eliminates the very philosophy of the simplified taxation system, according to Taras Onishchenko, partner at the law firm Barristers Commercial.
“The proposed changes effectively eliminate the very philosophy of the simplified taxation system, which was created to support and develop the middle class. The introduction of VAT for microbusinesses with a turnover of UAH 1 million looks like an attempt to solve budget problems at the expense of the least protected market participants. Although the Ministry of Finance refers to the requirements of the IMF and the need for European integration, the implementation of these changes without a significant increase in the registration threshold could lead to the disappearance of legal small businesses as a class,” he told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Onishchenko noted that the only criterion for mandatory VAT registration is “an income threshold of UAH 1 million over the last 12 calendar months.”
“In practice, this means that any entrepreneur — whether a coffee shop owner, hairdresser, IT specialist, or salesperson in a local store — will be required to obtain VAT payer status if they exceed this limit. The only exception is for a narrow category of e-residents. Thus, the state plans to cover almost the entire spectrum of small businesses with VAT, from market trading to the provision of household services, which was previously the prerogative of the general taxation system,” he said.
The expert noted that “the government’s intentions are serious and clearly planned in terms of timing; in particular, in response to an appeal from the National Association of Lobbyists of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance disclosed details of agreements with international partners.”
According to the Ministry of Finance, the introduction of VAT for “simplified taxpayers” is part of the implementation of the conditions of the new 48-month cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund (Extended Fund Facility – EFF), an agreement on which was reached at the expert level on November 26, 2025. This program provides access to $8.1 billion in financing.
The reform schedule provides that amendments to the Tax Code will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada in January 2026, and from January 1, 2027, the requirement for mandatory VAT registration for all “simplified taxpayers” with a turnover of more than UAH 1 million will become mandatory.
At the same time, the lawyer notes that the Ministry of Finance expects the reform to have a fiscal effect of more than UAH 40 billion in additional budget revenues in the first year of its implementation.
At the same time, Onishchenko believes that this initiative carries much deeper risks that could offset the potential fiscal benefits.
“The most critical point is the threshold of UAH 1 million itself. In the current inflationary environment, this amount is equivalent to a turnover (not profit!) of UAH 83,000 per month. This is an indicator of a microbusiness, which is often run by one person or a family. Forcing such businesses to administer VAT is placing an excessive administrative burden on them,“ he explains.
The expert also predicts an increase in the shadow economy and a mass exodus of businesses into the ”shadow.”
“Entrepreneurs whose turnover fluctuates between UAH 1.5-2 million will be faced with a choice: either raise prices by 20% and hire an accountant, losing competitiveness, or split the business among relatives, or switch to cash payments ‘off the books’ so as not to artificially exceed the limit of UAH 1 million.
Meanwhile, large and medium-sized taxpayers who use simplified tax systems in their work will be able to simply increase their number and continue to use them,” he said.
Onishchenko also predicts that the introduction of tax changes will lead to higher inflation and more expensive goods and services for end consumers. He estimates that the cost of a haircut, shoe repair, or coffee will automatically increase by at least 20%, which will trigger a new round of inflation in the service sector, and these changes will also lead to increased corruption risks.
“It is also worth considering the problem of blocked tax invoices. While this is currently a headache for medium and large businesses, after the reform, thousands of small entrepreneurs may become hostages of the system. For small businesses, even a week-long stoppage due to bureaucratic obstacles can be fatal,” he stressed.
Onishchenko noted that “although the Ministry of Finance refers to the requirements of the IMF and the need for European integration, the implementation of these changes without a significant increase in the registration threshold could lead to the disappearance of legal small businesses as a class.”
“That is why it is critically important for the business community to join the discussion of this bill on the Ministry of Finance website while it is still in the consultation stage,” the expert emphasized.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian restaurant chain Chornomorka is entering Romania: the first establishment in Bucharest is planned to open this winter in the renovated Unirea shopping center (Piata Unirii 1).
The company is already recruiting a team: they are looking for administrators, chefs, as well as waiters, fish sellers, cooks, and a cleaning manager.
The restaurant has an area of 280 square meters and is designed to seat 98-102 people.
The Unirea shopping center (approximately 80,000 square meters) is undergoing renovation, with Colliers Romania overseeing the redesign project. At the same time, a large-scale reconstruction of Piata Unirii is underway, with work expected to take approximately two years.
According to the chain’s website, by December 2025, Chernomorka will have 40 establishments in Ukraine, Moldova, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
Ukraine continues to be one of the largest suppliers of cheese to the Uzbekistan market, ranking among the top 10 exporters of this product. Dairy products traditionally occupy an important place in the diet of the Uzbekistan population, where fermented drinks such as kefir, ayran, and bifidok are particularly popular. At the same time, the most dynamically growing segments are ready-made baby food, drinkable yogurts, and butter, which indicates a gradual expansion of consumer preferences and demand for products with higher added value.
As Olga Gvozdeva, advisor to the director of the Office for Entrepreneurship and Export Development, noted, demographic and infrastructure factors are important for market development. “The average age of the population is 29, and the level of urbanization is only 51%, which creates certain logistical difficulties, especially for products that require a cold chain,” she said.
The growing demand for dairy products in a country that is home to 38% of Central Asia’s population makes Uzbekistan the largest potential consumer market for dairy products in the region.
There is a free trade agreement between Ukraine and Uzbekistan, which provides for a zero customs duty rate for products with a Ukrainian CT-1 certificate. Currently, 16 Ukrainian companies have official permission to export dairy products to Uzbekistan. Among them are:
Agroprosperis LLC
Molochny Aliance LLC
Yuriya-Plus LLC
Lvivmolprodukt LLC
Kyivmolprodukt LLC
Rogan Dairy Factory LLC
Prostokvashino LLC
Podillya LLC
Zarechnoye LLC
Starokostiantynivsky Milk Plant LLC
Shostka LLC
Volynmoloko LLC
Ivano-Frankivsk Milk Plant LLC
Bukovina LLC
Milko Dnipro LLC
Ternopil Milk Plant LLC
Uzbekistan is actively updating its regulatory system. In particular, in 2023, outdated technical regulations were abolished, and new sanitary standards and product safety assessment mechanisms were introduced. Particular attention is paid to compliance with Halal standards, in particular, the national certification system has been in operation since May 2023. The “Foydalilik belgysi” (Usefulness Mark) label was also introduced, which classifies products according to their nutritional value.
Thus, Ukraine has significant prospects for increasing exports of dairy products to Uzbekistan, which, given the growing demand and regulatory changes, is a lucrative opportunity for Ukrainian producers.
