Amid high corn prices, Ukrainian farmers have already exported about 1.8-1.9 million tons and are still maintaining good shipment rates, but the situation on the global market may soon change, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“Today, Ukrainian corn looks quite expensive on the global market. For example, we offer corn to the Spanish market at $257-260 per ton, while Argentine products are $10-15 cheaper at $245-248. As a result, the key consumers in the EU are not showing active demand. Moreover, in April, new batches of Argentine grain are expected to come in, which will put even more pressure on prices,” the analysts explained.
Experts pointed out that according to the satellite monitoring data, the soil moisture level in the so-called “small” states, which account for almost 45% of corn production, is decreasing in Brazil. If weather conditions continue to deteriorate, this could affect yields and trigger a new price increase.
“The climate in Brazil has a distinct seasonality: first, it rains heavily, then there is a long heat wave without precipitation. If the moisture reserves are not accumulated sufficiently, corn will not form the necessary vegetative mass. As of the end of March, there is a downward trend in soil moisture, and the risk zone is gradually expanding. If this continues, we may see a new round of price growth in May,” experts predict.
At the same time, they note that there is positive news coming from Turkey: the country has reduced the duty on corn imports and opened a quota. It is the demand from this direction that is currently supporting the prices of Ukrainian corn. However, according to experts, the quota may be enough for a week, provided active trade.
“The current price of corn on CPT-port basis is over $230 per ton, which is actually the price for Turkey. As soon as Turkey exhausts its quota, the market may drop to $215-220 in April, which is in line with seasonal patterns. Against this background, farmers should carefully weigh the decision to sell,” the analysts emphasized.
Thus, the situation on the corn market remains ambiguous: in the short term, prices may fall, but in the medium term, under the negative scenario in Brazil, growth in May-June is possible.
“Ukrainian producers should closely monitor the weather conditions in South America and be prepared for both scenarios,” Pusk called for.
Change in prices of food raw materials from Ukraine (forecast up to 2025), %
As of March 26, Ukraine exported 32.214 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year, including 3.032 mln tonnes shipped since the beginning of the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the data of the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of March 27 last year, the total shipments amounted to 34.199 mln tons, including 4.529 mln tons in March.
At the same time, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 12.912 mln tonnes of wheat (13.504 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.196 mln tonnes of barley (1.957 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1 thsd tonnes), and 16.621 mln tonnes of corn (18.447 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of March 26 is estimated at 52.8 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 78.1 thsd tonnes), including 48.9 thsd tonnes of wheat (74 thsd tonnes).
In February, global steel production decreased by 3.4% (to 144.7 million tons). The top ten largest producers saw a decline in volumes, except for India (+6.3%) and South Korea (+0.7%).
Top 10 steel producing countries in February 2025:
China – 78.92 million tons (-3.3%)
India – 12.66 million tons (+6.3%)
Japan – 6.4 million tons (-8.5%)
USA – 6.03 million tons (-7%)
Russia – 5.8 million tons (-3.4%)
South Korea – 5.15 million tons (+0.7%)
Turkey – 2.92 million tons (-5.6%)
Brazil – 2.72 million tons (-1.6%)
Germany – 2.7 million tons (-13.5%)
Italy – 1.81 million tons (-0.6%)
Overall, in January-February 2025, global steel production amounted to 301.96 million tons, down 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
The full dynamics of steel production by the top twenty countries of the world is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
In February 2025, Ukrainian steelmakers produced 572 thousand tons of steel, up 7.5% from February 2024. However, volumes decreased by 6.4% compared to January.
According to Worldsteel, Ukraine ranked 21st among 69 steel-producing countries. In the first two months of 2025, the country increased production by 9.9% to 1.183 million tons.
The full dynamics of steel production by the world’s top twenty countries is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
The average price of an Easter basket in Ukraine in 2025 is UAH 1124.77, which is 17% higher than in 2024, due to increased demand for a number of products and inflationary processes, according to a study by sodes.com.ua.
The researchers decided to compare the cost of a standard Easter basket containing 10 eggs, 1 kg of hard cheese, 1 kg of sausage, 1 white loaf, 1 pack of horseradish, and a set of three candles in the most popular supermarket chains in Ukraine.
An ATB customer will have to pay UAH 950.19 for this set, METRO – UAH 1083.93, Auchan – UAH 1114.40, Silpo – UAH 1124.67, and Novus – UAH 1189.73.
The analysts also calculated the average cost of making a homemade Easter cake, which consists of 700 g of flour, six chicken eggs, 180 g of butter, 300 g of milk, 400 g of sugar, raisins, and 40 g of yeast. The estimated price of the pastry is 202 UAH.
It is noted that the number of people who make Easter cakes at home and those who buy them in cafes or shops is almost equal – 31% and 33%, respectively.
To save money on Easter shopping, researchers advise taking advantage of supermarket discounts – prices drop by 5-20% before the holiday, looking for promotional codes and promotions, and using store loyalty cards: ATB can save up to 40%, and METRO has a wholesale discount system.
