The prolonged cold spell in Europe is pushing gas prices up. The spot price for “day ahead” delivery on the benchmark European TTF hub closed at $486 per 1,000 cubic meters on Wednesday, adding 11% in just one trading day. This is the highest level since June 2025.
On Thursday, trading opened at $491. At the moment, the price has adjusted to $477.
Air temperatures in Europe in January this year are falling to their lowest levels in the last decade and a half. Overall, January (which is already the coldest winter month) is expected to be three degrees colder than the climatic norm and four degrees colder than last year.
Clear weather is accompanied by low wind speeds, or even calm conditions. This increases the load on the power system, as it reduces the output of wind farms. The reliability of the power system is maintained primarily by underground gas storage facilities, which are the most flexible source and closest to the points of consumption.
The average level of gas reserves in underground storage facilities in Europe fell to 48.4% at the end of the gas day on January 20, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. This is 15 percentage points lower than the average for the last five years. At the moment, European underground gas storage facilities are ahead of the usual rate of consumption by four weeks. Moreover, the GIE observation base knows of examples when such a level (or even much higher – 59%) of reserves was reached only by the end of the withdrawal season and the start of injection.
By the end of 2025, countries in the region had purchased 109 million tons of LNG (142 billion cubic meters in regasified volume), which is 28% more than in 2024. In January 2026, liquefied gas imports could reach 10 million tons, which is 24% higher than a year earlier. And this could be a new record for the European gas industry. Despite high demand, there remains a large unused capacity reserve – on January 20, terminals were operating at 51% of their capacity. There is also a noticeable trend of declining LNG stocks at terminals.
According to the Serbian Economist, Serbia’s preparations for the international specialized exhibition EXPO 2027 in Belgrade are accompanied by discussions about the scale of investments and their comparability with the effect of similar events in the world. The exhibition is scheduled to open on May 15, 2027 and close on August 15, 2027.
Serbian authorities earlier presented the “Leap into the Future – Serbia 2027” program, including 323 projects across the country, the total amount of which was estimated at €17.8 billion, with Finance Minister Sinisa Mali emphasizing that the direct costs of the exhibition itself will amount to about €1.2 billion, while the remaining amounts relate to broader infrastructure and development initiatives.
Separately, the EXPO 2027 orgs point out that the “EXPO project cost” in their interpretation is estimated at around €1.29 billion and includes the exhibition site and a number of related facilities and communications (including transport and engineering components), rather than the national investment program as a whole.
In parallel, the project is already reflected in the budget architecture. In the budget for 2026 adopted by Serbia, the Serbian Economist allocates the largest single item of capex for EXPO 2027 – 47.5 billion dinars.
Comparison with the experience of other exhibitions usually shows that direct revenues rarely offset the total bill, and the key is the “legacy” – infrastructure, tourist flows, business connections and reuse of facilities. For example, World Expo 2010 in Shanghai attracted about 73 million visitors and Expo 2015 in Milan about 21.5 million, while Expo 2020 Dubai reported 24.1 million visits. For Belgrade, as a specialized exhibition, the expected scale is lower: the official resource of EXPO 2027 states expectations of “more than 4 million” visitors.
In the Serbian case, the key question is how effectively the costs will be “landed” in the long-term economy: the utilization of the new exhibition infrastructure after August 2027, the impact on tourism and urban development, as well as the ability to contain budget risks and avoid underutilization of facilities.
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Oil prices fell significantly on Thursday, with traders’ attention shifting back to supply and demand prospects after the hype around Greenland subsided.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that the United States wants to immediately begin negotiations to purchase Greenland from Denmark and does not intend to use military force to seize the island.
Trump later wrote on Truth Social that he had abandoned plans to impose tariffs on a number of European countries in February because he had been able to agree with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on a basis for further negotiations on Greenland.
“We are now seeing a decline in the risk premium associated with events surrounding Greenland and the situation in Iran,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
The price of March Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange at 13:15 GMT is $64.42 per barrel, which is $0.82 (1.26%) lower than at the close of previous trading.
WTI crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose in price by $0.76 (1.25%) to $59.86 per barrel.
On Thursday, the market’s attention is focused on the weekly report on energy reserves in the US, which will be released at 7:00 p.m.
Estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Wednesday night, showed an increase in US oil reserves last week of 3.04 million barrels.
Traders also continue to monitor the situation in Kazakhstan, where oil production at the Tengiz and Royal fields was suspended this week due to problems with the power distribution systems.
The number of personnel in research and development (R&D) in Ukraine has decreased significantly since independence, and spending on science as a share of GDP has fallen to one of its lowest levels, according to the Expert Club Information and Analytical Center.
According to the data presented in the article, the share of research and development spending in Ukraine’s GDP in recent years has been around 0.33%, while in 2010 it was estimated at 0.75%. In absolute terms, R&D spending in 2023 is estimated at UAH 21.35 billion.
The authors of the material note that the scientific workforce is deteriorating due to low funding and the status of the profession: the number of people employed in R&D has fallen from over 400,000 in 1991 to 63,800 in 2024. The publication also gives an example of the level of remuneration: the salary of a senior researcher at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine is estimated at UAH 13,034.
The article separately mentions the impact of the war: with reference to a UNESCO report, it states that as a result of Russian aggression, 12% of scientists were forced to emigrate or relocate within the country, with about 30% starting to work remotely.
As noted, the problem of an aging workforce is also intensifying: the most numerous age group in science is scientists over 65, and the share of researchers aged 55+ is estimated at approximately 40%.
Experts Club also describes state initiatives to support the human resources potential of science, including the concept of the “National System of Researchers of Ukraine,” and lists the proposed measures: compliance with the norm on financing science at the level of 1.7% of GDP, increasing the remuneration of scientists, and expanding competitive funding for scientific teams.
The author of the material is Volodymyr Khaustov, scientific secretary of the State Institution “Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”;
Source: Information and Analytical Center “Club of Experts” and Khaustov’s article posted on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency – https://interfax.com.ua/news/blog/1134413.html
The National Association of Lobbyists of Ukraine (NALU) has developed an alternative bill on the introduction of value added tax for individual entrepreneurs. As reported to Interfax-Ukraine by the NALU, the initiative was prepared by NALU Chairman Alexei Shevchuk, Deputy Chairwoman of the Board of Trustees Lyudmila Kozhura, and NALU Development Director and member of the Taxpayers Association Nazarii Valyansky.
“The purpose of the alternative bill is to protect small and medium-sized businesses in the context of martial law and post-war recovery, while gradually adapting Ukraine’s tax system to the requirements and standards of the European Union,” the association said.
The NALU noted that, unlike the government’s approach, which currently shifts the tax burden onto small businesses, the NALU’s alternative bill “offers a balanced solution that takes into account economic realities, security risks, and the institutional weakness of businesses during a crisis.”
The NALU cites the protection of small and microbusinesses in wartime as one of the key advantages of its alternative bill compared to the government’s version.
“The bill introduces temporary moratoriums on expanding the circle of VAT payers, increasing tax rates, and changing the limit for mandatory VAT registration for the entire period of martial law and until the end of the year after its termination,” the NALU noted.
In addition, the NALU cited the flexible VAT registration limit as an advantage of its bill, taking into account the economy and proposing, instead of a fixed limit of UAH 1 million, to link the VAT registration threshold to the minimum wage, which allows for automatic adjustment for inflation, changes in GDP, and macroeconomic dynamics.
The NALU also cited the gradual harmonization with EU law “without shocks to business” as one of the advantages of its bill:
the alternative draft provides for a gradual approach to the European VAT threshold (around €85,000) by 2031, avoiding administrative and financial pressure on entrepreneurs in crisis conditions.
In addition, the NALU noted that their bill provides for the preservation of a simplified taxation system, i.e.
it does not introduce mandatory VAT registration for single tax payers in the third group, preserving the simplified accounting and reporting system as the foundation for the development of small businesses.
Another advantage of the bill, according to the NALU, is the encouragement of voluntary VAT registration and the fight against abuse.
“A ‘carrot and stick’ model is being introduced: incentives for voluntary registration by VAT payers through the differentiation of single tax rates, as well as clear mechanisms to combat abuse, in particular the practice of so-called ‘salaried sole proprietorships’,” the association noted.
The NALU bill also provides for the protection of businesses in frontline and war-affected regions
by introducing special guarantees for businesses operating in areas where hostilities are ongoing or have taken place. In particular, the draft law provides for a moratorium on unscheduled tax audits of such taxpayers, which will reduce administrative and fiscal pressure and preserve business activity and jobs in conditions of increased security risks.
The NALU notes that “the proposed approach allows for the reconciliation of the fiscal interests of the state, Ukraine’s European integration commitments, and the real capabilities of small and medium-sized businesses, which remain a key pillar of the country’s economy today.”
Uzbekistan has approved a special legal procedure regulating the activities of investment platforms in the form of a “regulatory sandbox.”
This legal regime creates conditions for the launch and development of investment platforms that allow funds to be raised directly from investors, primarily for start-ups, as well as small and medium-sized businesses for which entering the stock market is difficult or premature.
The regulation establishes permissible formats for investing through electronic platforms, including investments in shares, participation in partnerships, venture and joint projects, as well as other project models. Unlike the traditional stock market, such investments do not involve the issuance and circulation of securities, listing, or the mandatory participation of investment intermediaries.
The document establishes the procedure for registering participants in the special legal regime, the conditions for their inclusion in the register of investment platform operators, and the grounds for exclusion from the list of participants.
Only legal entities that are residents of Uzbekistan and operate as investment platform operators can participate in the special legal regime.
An investment platform must be a comprehensive software, technical, and organizational mechanism that ensures:
The introduction and further expansion of investment platforms will help build a legal framework for boosting investment activity, which will give an extra boost to:
