Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.8% in 2025, which is lower than the previous estimate of 2% by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) and the Ministry of Economy’s forecast of 2.2%.
According to the institute’s Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine (MEMU), economic growth was 5.2% in November, but slowed to 3.4% in December amid ongoing Russian attacks on energy and railway infrastructure. Positive dynamics at the end of the year were supported by the contribution of agriculture, where gross value added (GVA) growth was 54% in November and 35% in December, as well as the trade sector (GVA growth was 5.9%), business services, and public services.
“This growth was partly supported by the population’s continued efforts to adapt to regular planned and emergency power cuts,” the IER explains.
At the same time, December saw a significant drop in GVA in the extractive industry — by about 19% (compared to December 2024) due to the negative impact of Russian attacks on gas, ore, and coal production. Electricity and gas production and distribution fell by 18% (compared to December 2024) due to large-scale damage to generation facilities, which led to power outages in the Odesa, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost its external power supply again on January 2.
Real GDP in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.9% in December (compared to December 2024) due to problems with access to electricity, but the decline was mitigated by businesses adapting through the use of generators, cogeneration plants, and solar panels, as well as by defense purchases. In the transport sector, the decline in GDP accelerated to 10% due to massive shelling of ports and railway infrastructure.
In December, the energy sector showed a 53% increase in electricity imports compared to November, to 640,000 MWh, while there were no exports. In total, 762 MW of new gas generation was commissioned in Ukraine in 2025, and the capacity of qualified cogeneration plants exempt from excise tax reached 3.1 GW.
Consumer inflation in December fell to 8% compared to 2024, while compared to November 2025, the consumer price index rose by only 0.2%, which was one of the lowest figures for December since the country’s independence. According to the IER, the slowdown in inflation was facilitated by a good harvest, stable world food and oil prices, as well as moderate consumer demand and high competition among non-food products.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine estimates Ukraine’s real GDP growth for 2025 at 2.2%. According to its information, the economy is growing thanks to domestic trade, construction, thanks to reconstruction projects, as well as the processing industry, in particular, the production of defense products and metallurgy. On the other hand, economic growth was hampered by massive Russian missile attacks on power generation facilities and, for the first time in years of full-scale war, on gas production infrastructure; lower yields of certain crops due to unfavorable weather conditions – a 26.9% decrease in soybean yields, a 15.8% decrease in sunflower yields, a 7.6% decrease in rapeseed yields, and a nearly 14% decrease in sugar beet yields; however, grain yields increased by more than 3%.
The ICU investment group also lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, while in July 2025, the company predicted a 2.5% increase in GDP in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026 due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure, electricity shortages and complications with maritime exports, a gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as businesses delaying investments due to high security risks.
In 2025, Ukraine increased exports of insulated wires and cables, including fiber optic cables, by 10.6% compared to 2024, to $1.41 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service. According to statistics, Germany remained the largest importer of Ukrainian products, with deliveries to this country falling by 6.2% to $471.7 million, and Germany’s share in total exports decreasing by 6 percentage points to 33.4%.
The top three markets also included Hungary ($239.1 million, almost 17%) and Poland ($224 million, 15.9%). In 2024, the main buyers, apart from Germany, were Poland ($184.4 million) and the Czech Republic ($165.6 million).
In December 2025, Ukraine exported insulated wires and cables worth $95.1 million, which is 25.5% more than in December 2024.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2024, Ukraine increased exports of these products by 60.2% compared to 2023, to $1.275 billion.
Ukrainian cement producers require equal conditions with their European counterparts in the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from 2026.
“While EU companies have support and equal conditions for investments in decarbonization, Ukrainian companies do not have such support. During martial law, the cost of CBAM certificates puts Ukrainian exports at a disadvantage compared to EU producers and creates additional obstacles for Ukrainian enterprises, exacerbating the negative consequences of the war,” said Lyudmila Krypka, executive director of the Ukrcement Association, on Wednesday during the event “CBAM and the readiness of Ukrainian industry for decarbonization: from methodology to competitive advantage,” organized as part of the STEP IN 2 EU program.
She reminded that Ukraine does not have developed financial markets that would allow it to attract funding for decarbonization. Instead, there are challenges and barriers, one of which is the war and constant round-the-clock rocket and drone attacks, destroyed energy facilities, including generation, staffing problems due to mobilization and emigration, and much more.
As reported, on December 17, 2025, the European Commission (EC) took measures to strengthen the effectiveness of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). From 2026, updated, stricter benchmarks will come into force and a surcharge will be applied to the default values: 10% (2026), 20% (2027), and 30% (from 2028).
According to the expert, to ensure transparency and meaningful participation of all relevant stakeholders, it is important to review the default values as early as 2026, as the values proposed for Ukraine range from 1,500 to 1,794, which are several times higher than the actual figures.
Thus, actual CO2 emissions in the 1990s amounted to 0.956 kg, provided that a larger number of enterprises in the industry (up to 15 enterprises) were operating and production amounted to 17-18 million tons; from 2017 to 2020, emissions decreased from 891 to 879 kg (production decreased from 6,333 to 7,419 thousand tons, the number of enterprises was 10). According to forecasts, in 2025, emissions will be around 0.700 kg, not 1,500.
“The production of 1 ton of cement clinker emits approximately 850 kg of CO2. When using alternative fuels, 90% of CO2 emissions will amount to 672 kg/1 ton of clinker,” Kripka gave an example.
Unfortunately, she added, the alternative fuel market in Ukraine is not working, and Ukrainian cement producers buy it in the EU. Over the past two years, cement companies have been using 20 to 30% alternative fuels, with the goal of increasing the share of alternative fuels to 40% by 2030.
Ukrcement has made a number of proposals to level the playing field for Ukrainian companies subject to the ETS. First of all, our producers should receive free quotas similar to those in the EU; the tax should be applied to actual emissions rather than default values; Ukrainian legislation needs to be harmonized with EU rules on biomass taxation. It is also necessary for producers to be able to use tax “environmental” payments to decarbonize their own enterprises. Cooperation with European verifiers and training courses on CBAM calculation are important.
The Ukrcement Association was established in January 2004 through the reorganisation of the Ukrainian Concern of Cement Industry Enterprises and Organisations “Ukrcement”. The association has four members, comprising eight enterprises that meet 100% of the domestic Ukrainian market’s cement needs.
Ukraine ranked 20th in the annual Global Firepower (GFP) military power ranking for 2025 among 145 countries, while in the 2024 ranking it ranked 18th, according to the resource’s data.
According to Ukraine’s GFP data, its PowerIndex (PwrIndx) in the 2025 ranking is 0.3755 (in the GFP methodology, a lower value means a higher assessment of potential).
The GFP ranking is calculated based on more than 60 factors, including the structure and size of the forces, the availability of equipment, financial parameters, logistics, and geographical characteristics.
Global Firepower is an online project that was officially launched in 2005 and publishes annual comparative reviews of countries’ military capabilities; however, the composition of factors and the assessment formula change from year to year, which means that direct comparisons between different years may be limited in their accuracy. The ranking is widely cited in the media as a benchmark for comparing “conventional” capabilities, but it is not an official assessment by government agencies and is based on publicly available statistics and assumptions about a number of parameters.
The top 20 in the GFP-2025 ranking include: the United States, Russia, China, India, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, Germany, Israel, Iran, Spain, Australia, Egypt, and Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, reiterated his intention to seek control over Greenland and, commenting on the topic, said: “I’m just asking for a piece of ice.”
According to Reuters and AP, Trump claimed that the US would not use force to obtain the island, while insisting on the need for negotiations and calling Washington’s request a “small request” in the context of the US’s role in ensuring the security of its allies.
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. Trump’s statements about a possible change in the island’s status previously provoked a sharp reaction in Europe, where the inadmissibility of a forceful scenario and the importance of respecting sovereignty were emphasized.
The island is interesting for its reserves and prospects for the extraction of critically important minerals, including rare earth elements, which are important for high-tech industries and energy transition.
Greenland is also associated with the planet’s largest reserves of fresh water in the form of ice – together with Antarctica, the ice sheets contain more than 99% of the Earth’s fresh ice.
Its key advantage is its geography: its location on Arctic and North Atlantic routes, including the GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom) area, which NATO considers a strategic maritime “corridor” between the Arctic and the Atlantic.
Ukrnafta JSC announces a commercial procurement for the provision of road transport services for light petroleum products to supply its network of filling stations.
Due to the expansion of its network and increased sales of petroleum products, the company invites qualified suppliers of oil and gas products to submit commercial proposals.
The procurement will take place on the platform https://zakupivli.pro/ in two stages; proposals submitted by other means will not be considered.
For more detailed information on participation in commercial procurement and the selection process, please contact us by email: Dmytro.Sles@Ukrnafta.com or follow this link.
Commercial proposals will be accepted until January 27, 2026, inclusive.
We are looking forward to working with reliable partners!
JSC Ukrnafta is Ukraine’s largest oil production company and the operator of the largest national network of gas stations, UKRNAFTA. In 2024, the company entered into asset management with Glusco. In 2025, it completed an agreement with Shell Overseas Investments BV to purchase the Shell network in Ukraine. In total, it operates 663 gas stations.
The company is implementing a comprehensive program to restore operations and update the format of its network of gas stations. Since February 2023, it has been issuing its own fuel vouchers and NAFTAKarta cards, which are sold to legal entities and individuals through Ukrnafta-Postach LLC.
The largest shareholder of Ukrnafta is Naftogaz of Ukraine with a 50%+1 share.
In November 2022, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to transfer the company’s corporate rights, which belonged to private owners, to the state, and they are now managed by the Ministry of Defense.
