In the world of politics, 2024 promises to be one of the most significant and dynamic periods, given the planned elections in almost 70 countries with a combined population of almost 4 billion people, which is more than in any other year in the history of the world. That is why many have already called 2024 the year of elections, and the results of some of them could be fateful for all of humanity. On the YouTube channel of the Experts Club think tank, we analyzed the top 10 most important elections in the world that could lead to dramatic changes in the international agenda.
The United States: the return of Donald Trump?
The most anticipated political event of 2024 is the presidential election in the United States scheduled for November 5.
“These elections could lead to significant changes in the political landscape of the world, with the potential return of former President Donald Trump being of particular interest. His candidacy has already sparked a lot of debate, in particular regarding his impact on American foreign policy, relations with allies, and support for Ukraine. The results of this election may determine America’s global course for the coming years,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Great Britain: time for change for the Conservatives?
The United Kingdom is also preparing for important parliamentary elections, which, according to the expert, could be a turning point for the ruling Conservatives.
“Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing many challenges, including polls that predict a ‘heavy defeat’ for his party. The elections in Britain could dramatically change the country’s political course,” emphasizes Maxim Urakin.
According to all the polls, the Conservatives are 15-20% behind Labor.
Taiwan: elections amid tensions with China
In Taiwan, where the presidential election is scheduled for January 13, the political situation is burdened by growing tensions with China.
Urakin notes that the elections in Taiwan could exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region, especially between China and the United States.
“Of the three presidential candidates vying for victory, Lai Tsingde, who is the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, is fiercely anti-Chinese. The second candidate, Hou Yu-yi of the opposition Kuomintang, wants to start negotiations with Beijing. The third candidate, Ko Wen-jeou of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and former mayor of Taipei, offers an intermediate position closer to reconciliation. Polls favor the candidate with an anti-China stance,” the founder of Experts Club emphasized.
India: Elections in the World’s Largest Democracy
India, the world’s largest democracy, will also face important elections. It is expected that elections to the lower house of the Lok Sabha will be held in April-May.
“These elections are not only important for India, but also important for the entire international community, given India’s growing role on the world stage,” – Urakin said.
The year 2024 will undoubtedly be a year that will bring important changes in international relations and domestic policies of states that are key players on the world stage. Political analysts and experts are eagerly awaiting the results of these elections, which may set the global agenda for the coming years.
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The state budget deficit of Ukraine in December 2023 amounted to a record UAH 285 billion, compared to UAH 145.1 billion in November and UAH 98.4 billion in October, according to the State Treasury. It specified that the general fund deficit jumped to UAH 274.4 billion from UAH 162.5 billion in November and UAH 87.7 billion in October. The Ministry of Finance noted that the cash expenditures of the state budget in December also became a record and exceeded UAH 548.2 billion compared to UAH 337.9 billion in November and UAH 292.1 billion in October.
The general fund expenditures increased to UAH 397.7 billion from UAH 286.3 billion in November and UAH 228.1 billion in October.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in December 2023, revenues to the general fund of the state budget increased slightly to UAH 127.1 billion from UAH 121.7 billion in November, which is, however, less than UAH 139.4 billion in October, while US grant international assistance amounted to UAH 20.5 billion, while in November it was not, and in October it amounted to UAH 42 billion.
In total, in 2023, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, including UAH 1.66 trillion from the general fund, of which UAH 425.4 billion was international grant aid (the US – UAH 400.5 billion).
Last year’s cash expenditures of the state budget exceeded UAH 4 trillion, including UAH 3.03 trillion from the general fund, or 98% of the plan, compared to 93% a month earlier.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 1.33 trillion, including a deficit of UAH 1.36 trillion in the general fund against the deficit of UAH 1.83 trillion planned in the general fund plan.
In 2022, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 911.1 billion, including UAH 909.5 billion in the general fund, including UAH 99 billion and UAH 101.3 billion in December, respectively, and in pre-war 2021, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine was equal to UAH 166.8 billion.
State budget expenditures in 2022 amounted to UAH 2.70 trillion, including UAH 2.41 trillion for the general fund, which was 91.7% higher than in 2021. In December 2022, cash budget expenditures amounted to UAH 408.8 billion, including UAH 330.5 billion for the general fund.
The general fund of the state budget in 2022 received UAH 1.491 trillion, of which grant funding amounted to UAH 480.6 billion, while in 2021 revenues amounted to UAH 1.084 trillion. In December 2022, the general fund revenues amounted to UAH 229.2 billion, of which UAH 138.4 billion was grant aid.
As reported, on October 6, the Verkhovna Rada approved the next amendments to the state budget for 2023, mainly to increase spending on the security and defense sector. The new amount of state budget expenditures amounted to UAH 3 trillion 393.0 billion, including UAH 3 trillion 94.5 billion for the general fund, while revenues amounted to UAH 1 trillion 416.4 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 253.9 billion for the general fund. The limit for the deficit was set at UAH 2 trillion 10.35 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 834.6 billion for the general fund.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Last Friday, the Experts Club analytical center hosted the final seminar-tasting of Ukrainian wine and vintage drinks. This event once again brought together representatives of the Ukrainian wine industry, professional tasters, retail experts and media representatives.
Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts club, opened the event, emphasizing the importance of reviving and developing the culture of wine and vintage drinks in Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian wines presented at today’s tasting are limited editions that have not yet been presented to the general public, but have already been recognized at both Ukrainian and international competitions. Our events are held to support the development of domestic winemaking and spirits production, which will allow Ukrainian products to regain their leading positions, primarily in the domestic market, which, unfortunately, have been lost in recent years,” said Urakin.
The founder of Experts club also emphasized that a systematic approach to supporting Ukrainian producers will also lead to their entry into foreign markets and help the development of our economy as a whole.
In his turn, Andriy Strelets, General Manager of Knyaz Trubetskoy, emphasized that despite the destruction his winery suffered as a result of military operations, production continues to revive and develop.
“The wines that are presented at today’s event are new limited collections of 2022. And this is a sign that our winery is resuming production and working to expand its range. We have decided to change the name of our brand to Stoic Ukrainian winery, as it should symbolize the resilience of Ukraine in these difficult times,” said Strelets.
Sergiy Parkhomchuk, Marketing Director at PrJSC Knyaz Trubetskoy, spoke about the company’s new projects.
“Dnipro Hills is a new Ukrainian wine created in cooperation between STOIC Ukrainian winery and Chateau Pinot winery. At a critical moment in the 125-year history of our winery, Chateau Pinot provided us with invaluable support.
Representatives of a new industry for Ukraine – the production of craft distilled beverages, Oleksandr and Lesya Slobodian, presented their own products, including whiskey, calvados and grappa made in Ukraine. CraftSAD is a family-owned distillery with a unique history and philosophy, created by the Slobodian couple. Even after the loss of their laboratory and home during the war, they did not give up, but found a way to continue creating unique signature drinks for their fans. Their work is based on two key principles: the use of local raw materials (grains, berries, fruits) and the priority of quality over quantity. This provides CraftSAD with the opportunity to produce products that preserve the unique aroma and taste of natural ingredients and guarantee the uniformity of each batch.
“The event presents the author’s drinks that are already loved by many. “Zapechena” is based on an old Cossack recipe, a spicy honey brew that will first surprise and then impress with its richness of flavors. Aged for more than 3 years, the exquisite whiskey and calvados are truly worthwhile drinks, of which there are very few left after the house was destroyed,” said Lesia Slobodian.
In general, the event emphasized the importance of supporting Ukrainian wine and spirits producers and promoted the popularization of unique domestic alcohol brands.
The partner of the Experts club was Myasnyi Rai.
Andriy Strelets, COGNAC, craft drinks, craft wines, CraftSAD, Dnipro Hills, EXPERTS CLUB, Lesya Slobodian, Meat Paradise, Oleksandr Slobodian, Sergiy Parkhomchuk, Stoic Ukrainian winery, TASTING, Whiskey, WINE
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2023 increased 3 times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $22.363 billion from $7.108 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) reported.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine for the period compared to January-October 2022 decreased by 19% to $29.827 billion, while imports increased by 18.8% to $52.19 billion.
The State Statistics Committee specified that in October-2023 compared to September-2023, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 4.8% to $2.475 billion, while imports decreased by 1.6% to $5.251 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in October-2023, as in the previous month, was negative at $2.776 billion compared to $2.736 billion before.
The export-import coverage ratio in January-October 2023 was 0.57 (0.84 in January-October 2022).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 228 countries. Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club presented an analysis of macroeconomics of Ukraine and the world. For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and world economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Experts Club” at the link:
Subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In a new episode of the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who estimates that about 50% of citizens will return after the war.
“Demographics is an important factor for economic recovery, but the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in the demographic growth potential in Ukraine can only be offset by migration,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
Prospects for the Global Economy
The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP in developed countries. We are witnessing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. These rate hikes are driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, they limit economic activity,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, economy review, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN, world economy
INVESTMAN UKRAINE is a place of strength and partnerships for all interested in the business space of Ukraine, as the main place of Investmen, where everyone contributes to the development of the investment sphere, leading industries and the economic front of our country as a whole.
When – 30.11.2023 (Thu)
Where? – Parkoviy ECC (Kyiv)
What time? – start of registration 10:00,
start of the event program at 11:00
networking and informal part from 17:00.
It will be held in the format of the First Investment Exhibition, which will include:
– Expo-zones of investment companies and projects by areas;
– Topical panel discussions and QA sessions in separate mini-halls;
– Lots of networking and socializing;
– Drawings from partners;
– Charitable initiatives
– Setting a Ukrainian Record.
Sponsor of the event in the direction of technological projects – “Brave Inventors“.
Partner of the event on land investments – “ZemInvest“.
Let’s create together a productive synergy of business activity and trend actualization, negotiations and networking, providing or attracting investments, successful contracts and partnerships, expert opinions and exchange of experience in an unforgettable atmosphere of community of the most courageous investors of Ukraine.
THE NUMBER OF VISITORS IS LIMITED BY SECURITY CONDITIONS
Don’t hesitate and choose your best participation format – https://www.investman.com.ua/doluchitisya/.
Media partners: Interfax-Ukraine, open4business, Experts club, Fixygen
