According to preliminary estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukraine’s international reserves in May decreased by 7.9%, or $3.4 billion, to $39 billion 033.8 million.
“This dynamics is due to the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions to ensure exchange rate stability and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency, which were partially offset by proceeds from the placement of foreign currency domestic government bonds (foreign currency government bonds) and from international partners,” the NBU website explained on Thursday.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of the macroeconomy in Ukraine and globally, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/P_-qI9k9Xjc?si=nIQFriaWTYRqdvkU
The National Bank clarified that in April, its net sales of foreign currency amounted to $3.08 billion, which is 30.7% more than in the previous month: The NBU sold $3.09 billion in the foreign exchange market and bought back $11.1 million in reserves.
“This is due to the growth in demand in the foreign exchange market, primarily against the backdrop of increased government spending due to the rhythmic flow of foreign aid in March-April,” the central bank explained the dynamics.
In addition, the current volume of reserves was affected by revenues in favor of the government and payments for servicing and repaying public debt.
In May, $143.1 million was transferred to the foreign currency accounts of the Cabinet of Ministers, while $412.3 million was allocated for the servicing and repayment of the public debt.
It is noted that Ukraine also paid $240.8 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The central bank added that the volume of reserves was positively affected by the revaluation of financial instruments, adding $216.1 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides financing for 5.1 months of future imports,” the regulator said.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves in April decreased by 3.1%, or $1.4 billion, after reaching a historic high of $43 billion 762.7 million in late March due to record external receipts of more than $9 billion for the month.
On April 25, the NBU raised its reserve forecast for the end of this year to $43.4 billion from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion from $42.1 billion at the end of next year.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksym Urakin released a video analysis on the macroeconomy of Ukraine and the world in 2024, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/P_-qI9k9Xjc?si=nIQFriaWTYRqdvkU
The British Parliament stopped working on Thursday in connection with the general election on July 4, according to the parliament’s website.
“Parliament was dissolved on Thursday, May 30, 2024. All business in the House of Commons and the House of Lords has been completed. There are currently no MPs, and all seats in the House of Commons remain vacant until the general election on July 4, 2024,” the website said.
Sky News notes that the parliament was dissolved immediately after midnight.
The dissolution of parliament before elections is a standard procedure.
Earlier, The Guardian reported that on July 9, the parliament would reconvene with a new composition to elect a speaker and swear in MPs.
The opening ceremony is scheduled for July 17.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, the possible elections in the UK are in the TOP 5 most important in the world in 2024, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
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The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited the National Bank of Ukraine’s data on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022 and the forecast for 2024.
“Optimistic forecasts for international financing, recovery of supply chains, seasonal business revival and growth in domestic demand, as well as slowing inflation, have contributed to positive expectations for economic stabilization in the near future. However, damaged energy infrastructure, rising logistics and labor costs, and a shortage of qualified personnel due to demographic factors remain constraining factors,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the risks to the economy also include a possible intensification of military operations in the summer and instability of international assistance.
“The baseline scenario for the macroeconomic situation in the country envisages further implementation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies with a focus on maintaining financial stability. Ukraine must consistently fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, which will lead to an increase in the public debt to GDP ratio,” the economist said.
Global Economic Outlook
Maksim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slight improvement in the situation compared to the previous forecast.
“Global economic growth in 2024 may slightly exceed last year’s level, as countries such as India, China and the United States have picked up in recent months. However, the global economic recovery is still constrained by geopolitical conflicts, protectionist policies of major powers and persistent inflation,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, global GDP growth is likely to remain at 2.9% to 3.2% this year and will only slightly accelerate to 3.4% in 2025.
For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in mainland China’s economy in January-April fell 27.9% year-on-year to 360.2 billion yuan ($49.7 billion), according to the country’s Ministry of Commerce.
That included 58.5 billion yuan in FDI last month, the lowest since November. The figure fell 36% year-over-year and 32% month-over-month.
In January-April, about 12.7% of total investment was in the PRC’s high-tech sector.
As reported, FDI in 2023 fell 8% to 1.13 trillion yuan.
Experts Club Analytical Center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
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CHINA, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, INVESTMENT, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
Germany’s central bank expects the country’s economy to grow in April-June for the second consecutive quarter after falling at the end of 2023.
According to preliminary calculations of the statutory office of the Federal Republic of Germany, in January-March GDP increased by 0.2% compared to the previous three months. It fell 0.5% in October-December 2023.
“The economy is likely to expand slightly again in the second quarter,” the Bundesbank said in a statement on Wednesday.
Activity in the services sector was likely to have continued to strengthen on the back of rising household income and consumer spending.
“Growth in household disposable income is likely to take the upper hand from consumer uncertainty,” Central Bank analysts suggested.
However, they noted that the construction sector remains very weak.
The German labor market is expected to remain resilient and wages look set to continue to rise rapidly. This could be a risk to cooling inflation, which the Bundesbank estimates will accelerate slightly again in May.
The final data on Germany’s first-quarter GDP dynamics will be released on May 24, while preliminary information for the second quarter will be presented on July 30.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed over the past years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
CENTRAL BANK, ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, GERMANY, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
The growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in April 2024 slowed to 4.1% y-o-y due to Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, compared to 4.8% in March, 5% in February and 5.2% in January, according to the Monthly Economic Monitor of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“Due to the intensification of shelling, a significant part of the maneuvering generation was damaged, which caused power outages for businesses and households. Restrictions on electricity supply will lead to a further decline in GDP growth,” commented Oleksandra Betliy, a leading researcher at the IER, quoted in the statement.
Earlier, the Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Among the positive news, she highlighted the growth of exports and imports due to better logistics through both the Ukrainian sea corridor and road transport, although in April rail transportation decreased by 5% compared to March this year and by 29% by April 2023 to 15.2 million tons.
The IER clarified that the growth of real gross value added (GVA) in the manufacturing industry in April was 10%, while in the mining industry it was about 3%. Better logistics contributed to the revival of the performance of metallurgy and iron ore mining, it said.
According to the Institute, the growth rate of GVA in construction was high, partly due to the construction of fortifications, while the growth rate of trade slowed to 3% against the background of a higher statistical base.
The IER also pointed out that in April, both the tax and customs services exceeded their revenue targets, while the NBU transferred twice as much revenue to the budget.
As reported, after Ukraine’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2023, the National Bank expects it to slow down this year to 3%, while the government expects it to slow down to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth in January-March this year was 4.5%, while the NBU estimated it at 3.1%.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
