Hotel occupancy in the Carpathians in winter 2026 is expected to be 85-95%, and in cities — 50-65%, according to a study by the Ribas Hotels Group.
According to analysts, an increase in average hotel occupancy is expected in mountainous regions. With normal snow cover, peak occupancy in Bukovel will be 85-95%.
In cities, according to Ribas Hotels Group forecasts, hotel occupancy will be approximately 50-65%. Winter hotel occupancy in Odesa will reach 45-65% depending on the concept of the enterprise.
According to a survey conducted by the company, this year people prefer aparthotels and cottages that satisfy their need for privacy and autonomy. City business hotels are also in stable demand, allowing guests to work comfortably thanks to quiet areas and uninterrupted internet.
Among the trends is an increase in group bookings among different population groups. Stable demand in December and February comes from corporate groups. An increase in interest among families and friends is expected, with the number of family bookings likely to grow by 10–15% and the size of “groups of friends” from 4–6 to 6–8 people. This is why there is a growing need for family rooms, two-room apartments, and cottages, which necessitates booking rooms for groups in advance during peak dates. In 2026, a significant increase in the “booking window” is predicted — from 7–14 days to 21–35 days.
“Guests are taking vacation planning more seriously. In search of more favorable offers, they prefer early bookings with a fixed price,” the company’s analytics note.
This winter, there has been a 25-30% increase in direct bookings through the website. At the same time, although OTA platforms such as Booking, Expedia, etc. provide stable demand, their share is declining to 10-20% this winter season. The most effective booking channels are currently social networks (especially Instagram/Telegram) and quick sales through administrators and chatbots (up to 60%). This is due to their convenience, transparent special offers, more active advertising, and bonuses for repeat guests.
“For the first half of 2026, we predict the rise of major trends: guests’ desire for comfort and privacy, hyper-personalization of service, and the workation format (combining leisure with work). Due to affordability, people are traveling more often within Ukraine and spending more time on travel. A partial return of deferred demand is expected this winter season,” the study notes.
A number of factors influence the dynamics of domestic tourism: transportation prices, stability of energy supply in hotels, and healthy lifestyle trends. That is why the number of wellness hotels is actively growing in Ukraine.
Ribas Hotels Group is an international management company founded in 2014 in Odesa, whose flagship service is the operational management of hotel and restaurant complexes. The company also provides services in concept development, design, support for all stages of project implementation, consulting, and franchising for developers.
The company comprehensively manages and exclusively books 28 city, beach, and ski hotels under the Ribas Hotels, Ribas Rooms, WOL home + hotel, and Mandra Glampings brands. The operator’s total room capacity is over 1,000 rooms. In total, the portfolio includes more than 50 projects, including those in the design and construction stages. The company is also currently developing properties in Poland and Indonesia.
ICU Investment Group forecasts a slowdown in Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, while in July the company forecast GDP growth of 2.5% this year and 2.8% next year.
“Macroeconomic risks are under control, but economic recovery is slow,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast released on Tuesday.
ICU noted that the European Union’s (EU) decision to grant Ukraine a loan should provide the preconditions for macroeconomic stability, financing the budget deficit, and supporting the National Bank’s reserves in 2026-2027, as well as creating the basis for the implementation of a new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund for at least the next two years.
At the same time, according to the investment group, Ukraine will need additional bilateral loans and grants to fully cover its defense needs.
ICU expects economic growth to slow down primarily due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure from Russian attacks, electricity shortages, and complications with maritime exports, which will cause temporary downtime for large manufacturers.
Additional restraining factors include a gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as business hesitation to invest due to high security risks. Private consumption will remain the key driver of growth.
According to ICU’s forecast, annual inflation at the end of 2026 will be 6-7%, and the National Bank of Ukraine will move to ease monetary policy at the end of January with a cumulative reduction in the discount rate by 200 basis points during the year to 13.5%.
According to the company, the National Bank will slightly weaken the hryvnia in 2026 amid slowing inflation and growing external imbalances, and forecasts the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate at the end of next year at UAH 44.3/$1, which is slightly better than the July forecast of UAH 44.9/$1. Reserves, according to the investment group’s estimates, will remain at record levels thanks to EU funding.
According to ICU estimates, at the end of 2025, inflation will be 8.3%, the hryvnia exchange rate will be 42.4 UAH/USD, international reserves will be $53.1 billion, the current account deficit will be 18.2% of GDP, the budget deficit (before official grants) will be 22% of GDP, and public debt will be 101% of GDP.
For 2026, the company forecasts inflation at 6.3%, international reserves at $52.3 billion, a current account deficit of 16.8% of GDP, a budget deficit of 19% of GDP, and public debt of 109% of GDP.As reported, at the end of October, the National Bank downgraded its forecast for the country’s economic growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.9% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production facilities, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%.
Weather conditions may complicate the work of energy, construction, and utility companies, as well as transportation on Monday, December 29, according to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
“On December 29, there will be icy roads, on the right bank, except for Zakarpattia, wind gusts of 15-20 m/s, blizzard (level I danger, yellow),” the report says.
blizzard, FORECAST, icy roads, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
The volume of freight traffic carried by Ukrzaliznytsia in 2025 will decrease by 7% compared to last year, from 173 million tons to 160 million tons, and in subsequent years it will only be possible to increase it to 161 million tons and 162 million tons, respectively, the company announced to journalists during a presentation on November 7.
According to the presentation, it is expected that in 2025-2026, the volume of ore and manganese transportation will amount to 44 million tons compared to 43 million tons last year, and in 2027, it will decrease to 42 million tons.
Grain and flour transportation in 2025-2027 is forecast at 31 million tons, which is 22.5% or 9 million tons less than in 2024.
Ukrzaliznytsia noted that it expects a reduction in the transportation of building materials from 35 million tons in 2024 to 30-32 million tons in 2025-2027.
According to the presentation, coal transportation volumes in 2025-2027 will decrease by 17.4% compared to 2024, from 23 million tons to 19 million tons.
The company plans to partially offset these losses by increasing the transportation of other cargo from 32 million tons last year to 36 million tons this year, and then increasing it by 1 million tons annually.
Ukrzaliznytsia added that the total volume of cargo transportation from 2021 to 2025 decreased by 49% – from 315 million tons to 160 million tons. In particular, during this period, there was a 43% reduction in ore transportation, 52% in building materials, and 62% in coal.
According to the presentation, the forecast for the profitability of freight transportation is even worse: last year’s profit of UAH 20.4 billion will decrease to UAH 3.2 billion next year, and the following year, freight transportation will bring a loss of UAH 0.6 billion, and in 2027 – UAH 4.8 billion.
The company cites the freezing of tariffs, which were last increased in 2022, as the reason, although the producer price index has risen by 69.3% since then.
In September 2025, Valery Tkachov, deputy director of the commercial department of Ukrzaliznytsia, reported that the company expects freight traffic to decline this year to 162-165 million tons from 175 million tons last year, after partially recovering from a drop to 150-155 million tons in the first two years of Russia’s full-scale aggression from 312-315 million tons.
Tkachov then stressed that in order to rectify the situation, an active search for new cargoes is underway, in particular, retail and small and medium-sized business cargoes, ranging from forest products to industrial products and a large number of other segments.
Serhiy Leshchenko, deputy chairman of the supervisory board of Ukrzaliznytsia, reported last week in the Verkhovna Rada that the company’s net loss for the first nine months of this year amounted to UAH 7.195 billion.
According to him, the company proposes to index freight tariffs by 27.5% from January 1 next year and by another 11% from July 1.
The volume of Ukrzaliznytsia’s export shipments in January-June 2025 decreased by 13.5% to 38.7 million tons, domestic shipments by 11.7% to 35.5 million tons, while the volume of import transportation increased by 5.4% to 5.3 million tons.
In 2024, the company increased its revenue by 11.1% to UAH 102.87 billion, but incurred a net loss of UAH 2.71 billion compared to a net profit of UAH 5.04 billion in 2023.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat production in 2025 is forecast to reach around 809.7 million tons, which is 1.3% higher than in 2024.
The growth is expected to be driven by increased yields in Canada, Kazakhstan, China, and India, while southern Europe and North Africa remain at risk of lower production due to drought.
“The outlook for the global wheat market remains generally positive, and global stocks at the end of the season will remain stable despite active exports from the Black Sea region,” the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief notes in its October review.
Top 20 countries in the world by wheat production in 2025 (FAO and USDA estimates)
These twenty countries produce more than 90% of the world’s wheat.
Despite overall growth in yields, global wheat stocks could decline by 1.6% to around 312 million tons by the end of 2025. This is due to increased domestic consumption in Asia and the Middle East, as well as active exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Average global wheat prices remain volatile, but FAO analysts predict their relative stabilization while maintaining harvest and stock volumes.
Despite the war, Ukraine retains its status as one of the largest grain exporters. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the 2024–2025 marketing year, the country exported about 15 million tons of wheat, supplying it to Egypt, Indonesia, Spain, Turkey, and Tunisia.
Ukraine ranks 11th–12th in the world in wheat production and is among the top five global exporters thanks to its high yields and logistics routes through the Danube and Baltic ports.
A detailed overview of the world’s major wheat producers from 1970 to 2024 can be found in the Experts Club analytical video: Watch on YouTube
