Tourism should become a tool for Ukraine’s economic recovery, and a significant increase in the volume of Ukraine’s tourism industry is possible after the end of the war and complete security stabilization, according to Natalia Yakimenko, director of the travel agency “I’ll fly wherever I want!”
According to the annual study by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), by 2035, the contribution of travel and tourism to Ukraine’s GDP could grow 1.5 times to $16.1 billion, exceeding the pre-pandemic 2019 figures, when this indicator was 620.4 billion UAH ($15.5 billion, 6.3% of GDP). The global tourism market has already managed to recover after the decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the war in Ukraine is still preventing tourism from being fully utilized as a tool for economic development.
“A 1.5-fold increase in foreign tourism is possible primarily after the end of the war and complete security stabilization. An important factor could be the restoration of the possibility for men to travel abroad freely, as many families are currently unable to travel together. The market will also be supported by the potential return of Ukrainians from abroad, as people who have lived in other countries for some time will retain the habit of traveling,” Yakimenko commented to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
She stressed that a necessary factor is the restoration of direct air links, which will make travel to and from Ukraine easier and more affordable. “Provided there is economic growth and income stabilization, demand may recover fairly quickly,” Yakimenko said.
The Ukrainian hospitality industry has significant potential for growth in volume and an increase in its share of the economy as a whole. For comparison: according to WTTC data, the contribution of travel and tourism to global GDP was $11.7 trillion in 2025, which is 7.3% more than in 2024 and 13.6% more than in pre-pandemic 2019. Travel and tourism accounted for 10.3% of the global economy, up from 10% in 2024 but still below the 10.5% recorded in 2019. In 2025, the sector supported a total of 371 million jobs worldwide (10.9% of jobs), compared to 356.6 million (10.6%).
As for Ukraine, last year tourism accounted for 5.2% of GDP, reaching UAH 413.1 billion ($10.3 billion), which is 15.2% more than in 2024, but 33.4% less than in 2019.
According to Yakimenko, the average vacation check in Ukraine is already growing, our compatriots travel less often but go for longer periods due to complex logistics, and more often choose more comfortable hotels and better infrastructure. “Many customers consciously avoid mass budget resorts and destinations with many Russian tourists, even if it is more expensive. After prolonged stress, people want a full rest and emotional recovery, so they are willing to invest more in one trip,” she says.
There is a trend toward job recovery: in 2024, 766,700 people were employed in the industry (6.2% of all jobs in Ukraine), which is less than in 2019 (1.15 million, 6.9%), but 21.9% more than in 2024. At the same time, women make up the majority of those employed in the industry — 61.1% — and the share of young people under 24 is also significant (6.7%). Only 8% are high-paying jobs.
“Traditionally, more women work in tourism—this is a feature of the service industry. Young people are also actively involved, as the market requires flexibility and quick adaptation. At the same time, there is a growing focus on corporate social responsibility—companies are creating opportunities for veterans and internally displaced persons,” Yakimenko said, outlining labor market trends.
By the end of 2025, foreign tourists will have brought 58 billion hryvnia ($1.4 billion) to the domestic economy, which is one and a half times more than in 2024, but 61.3% less than in 2019. Domestic tourism is more stable – in 2025, it generated UAH 287.2 billion ($7.2 billion), which is 11.6% more than in 2024, but 16% less than in 2019. Overall, foreign visitors accounted for only 12.6% of the total in 2025. Business tourism also accounts for a small share (5.3%), with leisure tourism accounting for the bulk of tourist traffic (94.7%).
According to WTTC forecasts for the next decade, the share of tourism in global GDP will remain stable at around 11.5%, the total volume will grow to $16.5 trillion, and the number of jobs will increase to 461.6 million.
As for Ukraine, according to the WTTC’s analytical conclusions, by 2035 the industry will generate about 6.1% of GDP, with an estimated volume of $16.1 billion. Between 2026 and 2035, up to 400,000 new jobs will be created, bringing the total number of jobs to 1.16 million. In terms of revenue, foreign visitors could bring in $4.8 billion in 2035, while domestic visitors could bring in $8.7 billion.
According to Yakimenko, the trends that intensified in Ukraine after 2022 will continue. In particular, quiet resort destinations, beach and wellness vacations are now more popular, there is less spontaneity (the demand for short trips of up to 3 days and hot tours has completely disappeared), and the share of solo trips has increased. Themed trips are also popular (fitness tours, gastronomic tours, trips with influencers, retreats, etc.). “Separately, we see the prospect of developing inclusive tourism: our agency is actively researching this area and forming a list of hotels and destinations that are convenient for people with disabilities, because after the war, the demand for accessible recreation will only grow,” said Yakimenko.
Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are expected to reach 17.6 million tons, which is 11.5% more than in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association estimates the gross harvest for the current season at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in 2024/2025 MY.
According to analysts, the increase in production was made possible by the expansion of cultivated areas to 5.1 million hectares (by 4.8%), which offset the decline in average yield to 4.5 tons/hectare due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the same time, the current harvest is still 6.2% below the average for the last five years.
The UACB predicts that the increase in harvest will allow for an increase in shipments after a drop in exports in the previous season to 15.8 million tons. Experts cite the stable operation of Ukraine’s own sea route as the main factor in the recovery.
At the same time, domestic demand in Ukraine continues to decline due to the temporary occupation of territories and population migration. Total wheat consumption in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at 6.2 million tons, of which 3.7 million tons will be used for food, 1.5 million tons for feed, and 825,000 tons for seeds.
“The Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the UCAAB concluded.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
Reuters reported, citing an analytical note from JPMorgan Chase, that the bank expects gold prices to rise to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a sharp correction in the precious metals market.
According to the bank’s assessment, the key drivers will remain steady demand from central banks and investors, as well as the trend toward diversifying reserves in favor of real assets and reducing dependence on the US dollar. In particular,
JPMorgan Chase expects central bank gold purchases to total around 800 tons in 2026.
At the same time, gold fell 9.8% on January 30, the sharpest decline since 1983, and the decline intensified after the CME Group raised margin requirements in the spot market. On February 2, prices reportedly fell to $4,677.17 per ounce after hitting a record high of $5,594.82 last week.
Separately, Deutsche Bank AG confirmed its gold price forecast of $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, also linking growth potential to continued demand from the official sector and investors.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
According to the results of 2025, Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, increased its revenue and EBITDA by 24-26%, exceeding the forecast announced in November 2025, according to a press release from telecommunications holding company VEON, the main shareholder of Kyivstar Group with an 89.6% stake.
According to preliminary unaudited estimates, capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to be in the range of 29-31% of revenue.
VEON expects the results to exceed the 2025 forecast published on November 10, 2025, along with the financial results for the third quarter of 2025, the release said.
As reported, Kyivstar served 22.5 million mobile subscribers in the third quarter of 2025, down 3.6% from the previous year, while the number of 4G customers grew by 2.4% to 15 million.
In the third quarter of 2025, the company’s EBITDA was UAH 7.1 billion, which is 21.5% more than in the third quarter of 2024, and in dollars, the growth was 20.4% to $171 million.
In the first half of 2025, Kyivstar increased its EBITDA by 32% to $06 million, while its revenue grew by 28% to $539 million.
In August 2025, Kyivstar Group Ltd. (Nasdaq: KYIV) announced the completion of its listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq) and the start of trading in the shares of the largest mobile operator Kyivstar under the ticker KYIV.
In its January review, the International Grains Council (IGC, headquartered in London) raised its forecast for global grain harvest in 2025/26 (July-June) by 31 million tons to a record 2 billion 461 million tons.
This is primarily due to improved forecasts for corn harvests, mainly in the US and China, and barley harvests in Canada and Australia.
In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 2 billion 238 million tons.
“Thanks to an increase in yield (by 5%) and an increase in acreage (by 1%), the grain harvest in the 2025/26 season will break all existing records. In addition to record corn and wheat harvests, barley and sorghum harvests are also expected to reach multi-year highs,” the review says.
The estimate for grain consumption has been raised by 16 million tons to 2.416 billion tons. Carryover stocks at the end of the season are forecast at 634 million tons, which is almost 16 million tons higher than the previous estimate.
Global trade this season is estimated at 446 million tons, which is 4 million tons higher than the previous forecast and 5% higher on an annualized basis.
The wheat harvest forecast has risen to 842 million tons, which is 12 million tons higher than the previous estimate. In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 801 million tons. “It is expected that in the 2026/27 season, the area sown with wheat will decrease slightly, and assuming average yields in the next season, the harvest is preliminarily forecast to decline by about 2%,” the review says. “As demand has reached a new peak, a slight reduction in global stocks is expected, but aggregate stocks in major exporting countries will remain at comfortable levels.”
The corn harvest forecast for the 2025/26 season has been raised to 1.313 billion tons from the previous 1.298 billion tons. Last season, 1.238 billion tons were harvested.
The estimate for global rice production has remained virtually unchanged at 543 million tons. Taking into account a slight decline in consumption, stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season will increase by 2 million tons. Expectations for global trade volume in calendar year 2026 have declined slightly, but at 60 million tons (a 2% increase), it will still be a record high, the review notes.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented a video analysis of global grain production by leading agricultural countries in the period 1991-2024. The video is available here: https://youtube.com/shorts/2XwiBWf9GrM?si=F9-QsXbWRl2jqV8M
