Oxford Economics has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast, and the risks of further lockdowns and expectations of tightening fiscal and monetary policy led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5%.
The disappointing Q2 data prompted us to cut our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4% from 4.4% last month. And with Ukraine’s vaccination rate being one of the lowest in Europe, the COVID-19 infection rate may rise sharply again, according to the forecast of Oxford Economics for August.
According to the analysts, due to the lack of vaccines and hesitation regarding vaccination, the proportion of fully vaccinated is kept at less than 7% of the population. These factors pose significant downside risks to short-term growth forecasts.
Oxford Economics expects inflation to average 9.2% this year, with further declines to 6.7% and 5.4% in 2022 and 2023. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate on average in 2021 is projected at the level of UAH 28.4/$1, in 2022 – UAH 29.3/$1, in 2023 – UAH 29.4/$1.
As for further cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the resumption of the Stand-By Arrangement this year, Oxford Economics considers it unlikely, since the government manages the proceeds from two issues of eurobonds. The upcoming peak public debt repayments will help cover $ 2.7 billion from the new IMF SDR allocation.
In 2022, Ukraine will have to pay $ 6.5 billion on public debt. This year, Ukraine may miss the chance to receive a new tranche of the IMF due to lack of political will. In this case, the resumption of cooperation with the fund next year remains probable, the forecast says.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its 2021 inflation forecast from 8% (in its April forecast) to 9.6%, and expects that inflation will return to 5% in H2 2022.
“With global prices surging and demand recovering further, the NBU has revised its 2021 inflation forecast from 8% to 9.6%. After peaking in the fall of this year, inflation will begin to slow as the new harvest arrives and global energy prices adjust… inflation in H2 2022 will decline to its 5% target and remain there going forward,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
Inflation will soon rise to slightly above 10%, but it will weaken at the end of 2021 and return to its 5% ± 1 pp target range in H2 2022.
The rise in inflationary pressure, including its fundamental component, is also driven by the dynamic recovery of the economy, as evidenced by monthly and other high-frequency indicators. By tightening its monetary policy, in particular through raising its key policy rate and rolling back its emergency monetary measures, the NBU will also keep inflation expectations under control and gradually reduce underlying inflationary pressures.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July report has improved the forecast for the production and export of Ukrainian wheat in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 500,000 tonnes compared to the forecast in June, to 30 million tonnes and 21 million tonnes, respectively.
In July, the USDA kept its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2021/2022 MY at 30.5 million tonnes, harvest – at 37.5 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture also predicts an increase in world grain trade in the 2021/2022 MY by 800,000 tonnes to a record 204 million tonnes due to increased exports from the EU, Ukraine and Australia, while Canada, Kazakhstan and the United States will reduce exports of this crop.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 3% to 3.5%, according to its June forecast.
GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in both 2021 and 2022, the EBRD said in its June regional economic prospects.
According to the report, the main risks are associated with the slow progress of reforms in the country and the relatively slow pace of vaccination, the bank’s analysts say.
Although the economy contracted 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 due to prolonged quarantine restrictions, there are indications that it is gradually returning to growth in the second quarter thanks to higher commodity prices, the EBRD said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its June report has improved the projections for the export of Ukrainian sunflower oil in 2021/22 marketing year (September-August) by 1.02 million tonnes (a rise of 18.9% compared to 2020/21), to 6.4 million tonnes, its production – by 1.05 million tonnes (a rise of 17.7%), to 6.98 million tonnes.
According to a report published on the USDA website, the projection for sunflowerseed production in Ukraine in the current marketing year has been improved by 2.6 million tonnes (a rise of 18.5%), to 16.7 million tonnes.
In its June report, the USDA improved its forecast for Ukraine’s exports of sunflowerseed meal in 2021/22 by 0.7 million tonnes (a rise of 15.2% versus 2020/21), to 5.3 million tonnes, its production – by 1.01 million tonnes (a rise of 17.7%), to 6.71 million tonnes.
According to the USDA, Ukraine in 2021/22 will remain the main world exporter of sun sunflowerseed flower oil, while world production of sunflowerseed oil will grow by 10.2%, to 21.15 million tonnes.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022.
“Considering the fast-paced recovery of the global economy and higherinflationary pressures, the NBU revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022 and settle at this level further on,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
The central bank said that inflation will peak in Q3 2021. Inflation will start to decelerate in autumn, return to the 5% ± 1 pp target range in H1 2022, and subsequently remain there.
The steep rise in inflation was largely driven by temporary factors, such as growing global prices for food and energy. A revival in the global economy and the effects of smaller harvests continued to push up prices. A low comparison base also played an important role.
Underlyinginflationary pressures increased due to sustained growth in consumer demand, which was, among other things, fueled by higher wages, the NBU said.
Retail turnovers consistently exceeded pre-crisis levels, being 5.6% year-over-year larger in February, the central bank said.
