Experts Club Information and Analytical Center has analyzed the inflation rate and its trends in Romania in recent years. Inflation in Romania in 2025 continues to show a moderate decline, while remaining above the National Bank’s target level. According to the National Institute of Statistics, in March 2025, annual inflation amounted to 4.86%, down from 5.02% in February.
Main components of inflation in March 2025.
Food products: price increase by 5.10%
Non-food products: increase by 3.84%
Services: up 6.99%
The greatest pressure on the overall price level is exerted by services, especially health care, education and utilities.
Historical inflation dynamics
To understand current trends, let’s look at the inflation rate in Romania in recent years.
2021: 5.05%
2022: 13.80%
2023: 10.40%
2024: 5.60%
These data show a significant increase in inflation in 2022, driven by global economic turmoil, and a gradual decline thereafter.
According to the European Commission’s forecasts, inflation in Romania is expected to continue to decline, reaching 3.4% by the end of 2025. However, risks related to fiscal policy and possible changes in tax legislation remain.
Romania’s central bank is taking a cautious approach, aiming to reduce inflation without damaging economic growth. With upcoming elections and increased public spending, the scope for further interest rate cuts is limited.
One of the largest grain market operators in Ukraine, Nibulon JV LLC, is entering new markets in the Middle and Upper Danube, expanding its operations in the region and offering a full cycle of grain and metal exports, as well as cargo transportation of all types of goods via the Danube, the grain trader’s press service reported on Facebook.
The agricultural holding reminded that the first steps in the Middle and Upper Danube markets were voyages with metal products on the routes Izmail – Lom (Bulgaria) and Izmail – Smederevo (Serbia), which were carried out by the tugs Pereyaslavsky and Kozatsky using barges of its own production. These shipments confirmed the company’s readiness to work efficiently with various categories of cargo, opening up new business opportunities in Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania and other countries in the Danube region.
“Our fleet is capable of transporting various types of cargo, and this is just the beginning. We offer comprehensive solutions to the Balkan business: grain exports combined with our logistics on the Danube to Constanta, as well as river transportation of any goods between the ports of the region,” said Sergey Kalkutin, Nibulon’s Logistics Director.
Nibulon assured that expansion to the Middle and Upper Danube is part of the agricultural holding’s long-term strategy aimed at developing international river logistics.
Currently, the agricultural holding is ready to offer a competitive alternative to traditional ways of supplying grain and other cargoes. This includes grain exports to 75 countries using its own river fleet, cargo transportation on the Danube for the agricultural, metallurgical and construction sectors, and flexible terms of cooperation: DAP, EXW, FCA, FOB, real-time online cargo tracking, international experience and reputation as a reliable partner.
“Thanks to its own modern fleet and efficient logistics, Nibulon guarantees stable and safe transportation on the Danube, which opens up access to new markets,” the agricultural holding emphasized.
Nibulon JV LLC was established in 1991. Prior to the Russian military invasion, the grain trader owned 27 transshipment terminals and crop reception complexes, facilities for simultaneous storage of 2.25 million tons of agricultural products, a fleet of 83 vessels (including 23 tugs), and the Mykolaiv Shipyard.
“Before the war, Nibulon cultivated 82 thousand hectares of land in 12 regions of Ukraine and exported agricultural products to more than 70 countries. In 2021, the grain trader exported the highest ever 5.64 million tons of agricultural products, reaching record volumes of supplies to foreign markets in August – 0.7 million tons, in the fourth quarter – 1.88 million tons, and in the second half of the year – 3.71 million tons.
Currently, the grain trader is operating at 32% of capacity, has set up a special unit to clear agricultural land of mines and had to move its headquarters from Mykolaiv to Kyiv.
BULGARIA, CARGO TRANSPORTATION, Danube, NIBULON, ROMANIA, SERBIA
Ukrainian one-dollar store chain Aurora has opened 33 stores in the Romanian market in the first year since entering the market and generated about EUR10 million in revenue, said Taras Panasenko, CEO of the chain.
“For this year, we have a plan of EUR40 million in revenue in Romania, which means to grow four times,” he said at the Exporters Summit organized by Forbes Ukraine in Kyiv.
According to anInterfax-Ukraine correspondent, Panasenko added that the number of checks has reached 1 million, and 98% of buyers are local.
As reported, Aurora invested UAH 2.5 billion in the development of its network in Ukraine in 2024. Last year, the chain’s revenue increased by 42.5% to UAH 38.5 billion (excluding VAT).
“Aurora was founded in 2011 by Lev Zhidenko, Taras Panasenko and Lesya Klymenko. At the end of 2024, the chain had more than 1600 stores in Ukraine and 30 in Romania. The company employs about 14 thousand people. The retail chain is headquartered in Poltava.
According to Forbes, citing Panasenko, Aurora plans to open 340-350 new stores in Ukraine in 2025.
“We want to go public, but we are waiting for the right time for retail companies. Now, for example, Polish Żabka has launched an IPO, and it was successful. However, the main factor that will have a positive impact on our IPO is the end of martial law in Ukraine,” the CEO also said.
According to him, the company does not plan to enter new markets yet, but will focus on the development of Romanian stores. “But we are looking at Uzbekistan, Moldova, Bulgaria,” Forbes quoted Panasenko as saying.
Pro-Russian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu was detained on Wednesday.
“Călin Georgescu was going to submit his new candidacy for the presidency. About 30 minutes ago, the system stopped him on the road and took him to a hearing at the prosecutor’s office! Where is democracy, where are the partners who are supposed to defend democracy?” – reads a message from his communications team posted on Georgescu’s personal Facebook page on Wednesday.
Earlier in the day, he reported massive searches of his supporters, calling the current government a “communist-bolshevik system,” and called on everyone to gather for a protest on Victory Square in Bucharest on Saturday, March 1.
As reported, Georgescu became the leader of the first round of elections held in the country on November 24, with 22.94% of voters supporting him. The second place with 19.18% of the vote went to the leader of the liberal progressive party “Union for the Salvation of Romania” Elena Lasconi. However, one of the presidential candidates, Cristian Terges, who is supported by the Romanian National Conservative Party, claimed election fraud. The Romanian Constitutional Court unanimously decided to recount all valid and invalid ballots, and on December 6, unanimously decided to cancel the results of the first round of the presidential election two days before the second round. The election was canceled against the backdrop of declassified information from the intelligence services indicating Russian interference in the election.
Later, the ruling coalition in Romania decided on the date of the new presidential elections, which will be held on May 4 and May 18.
Georgescu called Ukraine a “fictitious state” and said that its territories would be divided by neighboring countries. According to him, if elected, he will not allow the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports through Romania and further military aid to Kyiv. He also claimed that Bucharest is not obliged to comply with NATO’s defense spending commitments and questioned the effectiveness of the use of EU funds that have contributed to economic growth and infrastructure development in Romania. Earlier, the Experts Club and Active Group released a video analysis of the most important elections in the world in 2025, for more details, see the video review – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=-rc6YHH7EA1pnr7w
Automagistral Pivden SRL (Ukraine) – Precon Transilvania SRL (Romania) has been recognized as the winner of one of three lots for the construction of the Arad-Oradea section of the highway with a project budget of EUR 600 million, the press service of Avtomagistral-Pivden reports.
The Ukrainian Embassy in Romania noted that the victory of the Ukrainian company in one of the largest infrastructure construction tenders is a significant event in terms of strengthening bilateral economic relations between Ukraine and Romania.
“The presence of the largest Ukrainian construction company in Romania will help strengthen the position of Ukrainian business in the EU market, develop joint projects and partnerships between Ukrainian and European companies, and exchange of experience. The EU market is traditionally represented by the world’s leading companies. The victory in the competition with the strongest rivals is evidence of the Romanian customer’s trust in the Ukrainian contractor,” the embassy said in a Facebook post.
In total, the four-lane Arad-Oradea highway will have a total length of 120.47 km and will provide a connection to the Romanian-Hungarian border. The lot won by an association of Ukrainian and Romanian companies includes a 47.07 km section, to which a connecting road to the Arad West industrial zone (2.9 km) is added. The project provides for 29 bridges with a total length of 2.5 km, six traffic interchanges, four sites for large vehicles, and two road repair stations (for highway maintenance).
“The victory of Avtomagistral-Pivden is evidence that our country is able to successfully enter the European market with high-tech services. Our company’s participation in one of the largest infrastructure projects in the EU will be important for dozens of other Ukrainian companies that supply materials and services,” the release says.
Avtomagistral-Pivden LLC has been on the market since 2004. It designs and builds highways, bridges, interchanges, airfield complexes, and hydraulic structures. The company’s owner is listed in Opendatabot as Oleksandr Boyko. According to the financial results for 2023, the company’s net profit amounted to UAH 624.9 million, and revenue was UAH 8.215 billion.
CONSTRUCTION, HIGHWAY, ROMANIA, TENDER, Автомагістраль-Південь
The ruling coalition in Romania has decided on the date of the new presidential elections, which will be held in Romania on May 4 and May 18, Reuters reports, citing sources in the Liberal Party of Romania.
According to the coalition parties, they have agreed to support a single presidential candidate to prevent the far-right from winning, and today their candidate is Crin Antonescu, the former leader of the Liberals, but experts suggest that another candidate from the ruling coalition may be nominated.
According to Politico, despite the cancellation of the results of the previous elections, pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu remains popular in Romania, as evidenced by a poll conducted by Digi 24 at the request of Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who also plans to run for president of Romania as an independent candidate in the re-election. The poll showed that at least 40 percent of Romanians plan to vote for Dănăsca, Dan told Digi24, without specifying how many people were interviewed.
On Wednesday, Elena Lascone, the leader of the liberal progressive party “Union for the Salvation of Romania”, which came in second in the previous elections with 19.18% of the vote, promised to run again.
As reported, in December 2024, the Romanian Supreme Court overturned the results of the first round of the November 24 presidential election due to allegations of foreign interference after the victory of pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video about the most important elections in the world, the video is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=zWf7UqPASklCy5nr
