Ukraine’s economy may grow by about 4% in 2025, but the outlook remains fragile and depends entirely on external factors. This is stated in the latest report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Regional Economic Prospects: Under Pressure.
According to the document, the main source of support for the Ukrainian economy is international financial aid, which is used to cover budget expenditures, social payments and defense. An additional driver of growth is the export of agricultural products through the EU “solidarity corridors” and alternative routes along the Danube and overland, which partially compensates for restrictions on maritime transportation.
There has also been a gradual recovery of infrastructure, including roads, bridges and the power grid, which is supporting economic activity.
However, the EBRD warns of high risks. Among them are a protracted war, high levels of public debt and inflation, as well as the vulnerability of export flows, which could be sharply reduced if sea routes are blocked.
According to the bank’s experts, digitalization of public services, agro-technology and development of renewable energy remain promising areas for Ukraine. However, this requires sustainable peace or conflict freezing, deeper integration with the EU market, as well as progress in judicial and anti-corruption reforms.
At the end of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP was estimated at around $160 bln. More than 60% of exports were agro-products (grain, oilseeds and processed products). The metallurgy, IT and energy sectors also retain potential for recovery.
The EBRD emphasizes that the Ukrainian economy is “under pressure”, but with continued international support and access to external markets, it can grow rapidly, laying the foundations for post-war transformation.
Digitalization is becoming a key driver of private medicine development in Ukraine, with online appointment, electronic medical histories, telemedicine consultations and automatic reminders forming a “new culture of care”, Oxford Medical claims.
“Today’s patient wants to get a consultation quickly and conveniently. Online appointment in two clicks, test results in an app, personalized treatment plans – this is the standard without which private medicine no longer exists,” said Angelina Moroz, medical director of the Kiev branch.
The company also introduces personalized support: administrators and managers act as guides for patients, and doctors remain involved at all stages – from diagnosis to postoperative follow-up.
Oxford Medical – a network of clinics, founded in 2005, covers dozens of cities in Ukraine. Hundreds of specialists work in the staff. The company relies on digitalization, telemedicine and integration with the NHS, developing standards of quality service and focusing on the needs of patients.
In terms of total trade volume, Ukraine cooperates most closely with China, Poland, and Germany. These countries form the basis of the state’s foreign economic relations, exerting a critical influence on imports and exports.
China remains the leader with a total trade volume of $8.99 billion. Poland ranks second with $6.04 billion, while Germany and Turkey are almost equal with $4.28 billion and $4.25 billion, respectively. The United States ranks fifth with $2.86 billion.
The top 10 also includes Italy ($2.38 billion), the Czech Republic ($1.64 billion), Bulgaria ($1.54 billion), Hungary ($1.53 billion), and Romania ($1.50 billion).
“The top ten partners form the basis of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. China and the EU countries account for the largest volumes of trade, but it is important to take into account the significant negative balance in relations with these countries,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He added that although the large volume of trade indicates Ukraine’s integration into global supply chains, dependence on imports from China and Europe creates strategic risks.
“Poland and Germany are key hubs for Ukrainian exports, but at the same time they are significant sources of imports. Therefore, it is critically important to balance trade flows, preserving positive sectors such as agriculture and metallurgy, and reducing dependence on critical imports,” Urakin noted.
BULGARIA, CHINA, CZECH REPUBLIC, ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, FOREIGN TRADE, GERMANY, HUNGARY, ITALY, POLAND, ROMANIA, TURKEY, UKRAINE, USA, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
Vitamin D test has become one of the most demanded analyses in Ukraine, which surprises specialists, Deputy Director General of Sinevo Ukraine Mykola Skavronsky said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“I am a bit surprised by the great popularity of this expensive analysis. Moreover, it is paid for by the state through the medical guarantee program. Even many rich countries do not cover the vitamin D test at the expense of the budget,” he said.
Skavronsky noted that the popularity of the test is due to the active promotion of vitamin D preparations on the market since 2017-2018. “Pharmaceutical companies have made it part of the medical discourse, and the demand has taken hold,” he added.
“Synevo Ukraine is part of Synevo’s international laboratory network operating in more than 10 countries in Europe.”
Ukraine maintains a significant positive trade balance with a number of key partners, which partially offsets the deficit in relations with China and EU countries.
The largest surplus in the first half of 2025 was recorded in trade with Egypt — $605.0 million. Spain ranks second with a balance of $515.3 million, followed by the Republic of Moldova — $448.4 million. Positive dynamics are also observed in relations with the Netherlands ($357.6 million), Algeria ($276.6 million), and Lebanon ($243.8 million).
Ukraine also has a high trade surplus with Iraq ($189.0 million), Libya ($133.6 million), Saudi Arabia ($128.4 million), and Kazakhstan ($113.6 million).
“The positive trade balance indicates that Ukraine is capable of competing effectively in international markets, especially in the agricultural sector and metallurgy. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that these markets are vulnerable to changes in the global economic situation, price fluctuations, and political factors,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
According to him, maintaining a positive balance in relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa is a key element of Ukraine’s foreign trade strategy.
“Egypt, Spain, and the countries of the Arab world are stable importers of Ukrainian agricultural products. This is a strategic direction that needs to be developed further, as it creates a safety cushion for the economy against the backdrop of significant import costs,” Urakyn emphasized.
Analysts note that consolidating positions in the African and Middle Eastern markets could become a long-term factor in strengthening Ukraine’s foreign economic balance.
Agricultural exports, ALGERIA, ECONOMY, EGYPT, EXPERTS CLUB, FOREIGN TRADE, IRAQ, KAZAKHSTAN, LEBANON, LIBYA, MOLDOVA, NETHERLANDS, positive balance, SAUDI ARABIA, SPAIN, UKRAINE, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
China remains the undisputed leader among Ukraine’s trading partners in terms of import volume. In the first six months of 2025, Ukraine imported Chinese goods worth US$8.15 billion. This is more than twice the figures for Poland ($3.58 billion) and Germany ($3.18 billion), which ranked second and third, respectively.
High import volumes were also recorded from Turkey ($2.53 billion) and the United States ($2.31 billion). Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and France round out the top ten key suppliers with volumes ranging from $1.2 billion to $979 million.
“The formation of such an import structure indicates Ukraine’s excessive dependence on Chinese goods, especially in the electronics, technology, and industrial products segments. Such an imbalance poses risks to economic stability, as any political or logistical restrictions will immediately affect the domestic market,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
At the same time, experts point to the diversification of supplies from European Union countries. Poland, Germany, Italy, and France together account for more than $8.5 billion in imports, forming a significant segment of the domestic consumer and industrial market.
Economists predict that, provided the hryvnia exchange rate remains stable and import flows continue at current levels, the trade deficit with China will continue to grow. This will require an adjustment of state trade policy towards stimulating domestic production and searching for alternative markets.
ACTIVE GROUP, CHINA, ECONOMY, EU, EXPERTS CLUB, GERMANY, IMPORTS, POLAND, SunFlower Sociology, TRADE BALANCE, TURKEY, UKRAINE, USA, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
