The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2026/27 season amid ongoing supply constraints from Ukraine.
In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on August 12, the forecast for U.S. corn exports was raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, or approximately 83.8 million metric tons. Compared to the July estimate, the increase amounts to about 1.9 million metric tons, or 2.3%.
The USDA explicitly attributes the increase in the U.S. export forecast to rising global demand and limited export capacity from Ukraine.
At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons—from 23 million to 22 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s corn harvest itself, on the contrary, was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—from 30 million to 31.8 million metric tons.
Thus, Ukraine may harvest more corn than the USDA expected just a month ago, but a smaller portion of the harvest will be able to reach foreign markets.
As a result, the forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks has been increased from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than 2.3 times the previous figure. At the same time, the USDA left its forecast for domestic consumption virtually unchanged.
The situation on the global market is different. The USDA raised its forecast for global corn trade in the 2026/27 season by 0.6 million metric tons—from 209.88 million to 210.48 million metric tons.
The United States is the main source of this additional supply. At the same time, the USDA lowered its export forecast not only for Ukraine but also for the European Union.
The U.S. agency also raised its forecast for EU corn imports, while estimates for purchases by China and Turkey were lowered.
The growth in U.S. exports is occurring against the backdrop of a virtually unchanged forecast for U.S. corn production. The harvest is expected to reach about 16 billion bushels and could be the second-largest in the country’s history. However, the increase in export demand will lead to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks by 137 million bushels—to 1.7 billion bushels.
The USDA also raised its forecast for the average corn price for U.S. farmers by $0.10 to $4.50 per bushel.
Consequently, difficulties with Ukrainian corn exports are already beginning to shift the global market in favor of competing suppliers. The U.S. stands to increase shipments by nearly 2 million metric tons compared to the previous forecast, while Ukraine risks accumulating significant additional domestic stockpiles.
As of August 12, 2026, Ukraine had exported, since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), 2.952 million metric tons of grains and legumes, which is 4.8% more than it exported by the same date last year, when the figure stood at 2.818 million metric tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service (SCS), total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 2.955 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago—an increase of 4.6%.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 18.3%—to 1.239 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively. Specifically, 175,000 metric tons of wheat were exported in August of this year, compared to 759,000 metric tons a year ago.
Barley exports fell by 28.1%, to 333 thousand metric tons from 463 thousand metric tons; specifically, 37 thousand metric tons of this product were shipped abroad in August, compared to 206 thousand metric tons in August 2025.
Corn exports as of the reporting date for the season increased by 66.4%, to 1.376 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year ago; in August, 68,000 metric tons of corn were shipped to other countries, compared to 184,000 metric tons in August of last year.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
Flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 54.1% to 2,800 metric tons. As of the same date last marketing year, they stood at 6.1 thousand metric tons. In grain equivalent, flour exports totaled 3.7 thousand metric tons, compared to 8.1 thousand metric tons a year earlier.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—$195 and $185 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis—while the price of corn fell by $5 to $195 per metric ton CPT Odessa, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
The price of sunflower seeds on a CPT mill basis was $550 per metric ton; rapeseed on a CPT port basis fell by $20 to $500 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis it rose by $5 to $545 per metric ton. The price of GMO soybeans fell to $420 per metric ton CPT port and to $435 per metric ton FCA Chop, while non-GMO soybeans on an FCA Chop basis rose by $10 to $470 per metric ton and fell by $10 to $440 per metric ton on a CPT port basis.
“This week, the Ukrainian physical market moved away from a direct correlation with exchange dynamics. The SPIKE CPT Odessa corn index fell to $195 (-$5 for the week), while 11.5% food wheat and feed wheat held steady at $195 and $185, respectively. On the western basis, SPIKE FCA Chop corn adjusted to $220 (-$3), maintaining a premium of about $25 to the port destination,” the report states.
According to Spike Brokers, the price of corn on an FCA Chop basis also fell—by $3, to $220 per metric ton. The sunflower seed price of $550 per metric ton is linked to processors’ transition to new-crop prices.
The port price of rapeseed fell by $20 per metric ton, while at the western border it rose by $5. From August 1–6, Ukraine exported 27.9 thousand metric tons of rapeseed.
During this period, Ukraine exported 33.5 thousand metric tons of corn, 93.2 thousand metric tons of wheat, and 4.2 thousand metric tons of soybeans. Sunflower oil exports totaled 30.7 thousand metric tons.
As of July 31, 2026, Ukraine had exported, since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), 2.601 million metric tons of grains and legumes, which is 54.9% more than on the same date a year ago, when this figure stood at 1.679 million metric tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service, total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 2.603 million metric tons, compared to 1.684 million metric tons on the same date last marketing year.
Specifically, wheat exports totaled 1.059 million metric tons, compared to 744,000 metric tons a year ago; corn exports totaled 1.244 million metric tons, compared to 627,000 metric tons; and barley exports totaled 294,000 metric tons, compared to 267,000 metric tons. As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
Flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 1,800 metric tons, which is half the volume recorded on the same date last marketing year (3,600 metric tons). In particular, wheat flour exports also halved—to 1,700 metric tons from 3,400 metric tons a year ago.
