According to the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global wheat production in 2025 will amount to 795 mln tonnes, which is the same as in 2024. The organization recorded mixed trends among the largest producing countries.
In the EU, production is expected to increase to 135.5 million tons (+12% yoy) due to the expansion of crops and improved weather conditions. At the same time, the FAO points to the lack of precipitation in the eastern part of the bloc, which may affect the final yield.
In Russia, wheat production is expected to decline due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage. A similar situation is observed in the US, where drought has affected winter wheat crops, which will lead to a decrease in the overall harvest.
According to FAO, wheat production in Ukraine will be below the five-year average. The main reasons are the ongoing armed conflict and dry weather conditions.
In Canada, wheat acreage is expected to increase due to price incentives, but this will be balanced by lower yields. Production will remain at the level of 2024, but will exceed the five-year average.
FAO predicts that India’s harvest will reach a record level of 115.4 million tons. The growth is due to the expansion of acreage, government subsidies and high market prices.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the harvest is expected to decline amid a lack of precipitation. In Argentina, production is expected to increase due to the expansion of crops. In Australia, a moderate decline in harvest volume is forecast, but the figure will remain above 30 million tons.
According to the FAO, the global grain production in 2024 amounted to 2.849 billion tons, which is 0.3% lower year-on-year. The forecast of grain consumption in 2024/25 marketing year is 2.868 billion tons, including 1.534 billion tons of feed grains (+1.1% yoy) and 795.4 million tons of wheat, which is slightly lower than the previous season.
According to national sources, Serbia plans to keep the wheat harvest within 3 mln tons. It is expected that weather conditions will allow to achieve above-average results. The country will continue to export to Italy, Turkey and other countries in the region.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club released the analysis of the main wheat producers by countries for the period of 1991-2023 – https://youtube.com/shorts/NMwidrCI6iY?si=hE3BXbdvWOG30Nld
The National Bank of Ukraine has revoked the financial services licenses of six non-banking financial institutions and excluded them from the State Register of Financial Institutions.
According to the regulator’s website, this applies to FC BI.Money LLC and Rulla Ukraine LLC, which provided funds and bank metals on credit, Prostozaym LLC, State Enterprise Ukrainian Center Security, State Innovative Financial and Credit Institution – Financial Leasing, PO Lombard Onyx Plus Chernik and Company – provided funds and bank metals on credit in the form of pawn loans.
Another non-banking financial institution changed the scope of the license for the activity of a financial company.
In addition, on the basis of its own application LLC “Financial Company Liberty Finance” agreed to change the scope of the license for the activity of a financial company. Such financial services as factoring, financial leasing, provision of guarantees were excluded from it.
After changing the scope of the license, the company will have the right to carry out activities to provide financial services – the provision of funds and bank metals on credit, the activity of trading in foreign currency values in cash on the basis of the appropriate license for foreign exchange transactions.
The relevant decisions of the Committee on supervision and regulation of non-banking financial services markets adopted on April 3, 2025.
In May, Saudi Arabia will reduce prices for all grades of oil for Asian buyers by $2.3 per barrel – the maximum since October 2022.
As a result, the main grade supplied to Asia – Arab Light – will fall to its lowest price in 4 months. It will cost $1.2 more than the Oman/Dubai oil basket, state-owned Saudi Aramco said in a statement. Prices for all oil grades for the U.S. will be reduced by $0.2 per barrel, for buyers from Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean – by $0.5 per barrel.
Representatives of the CDU are concerned about the safety of Germany’s gold reserves in storage at the US Federal Reserve, Bild reports. In particular, the publication cites the opinion of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) MP Marco Vandervitz, who, according to Bild, unsuccessfully tried to inspect the gold reserves in 2012, trying to force the Bundesbank to either take on a more active role as custodian or repatriate them to Germany.
MEP Markus Ferber (CDU) also called for more thorough inspections of German gold stored in the United States.
“Bundesbank officials should personally count the bullion and document their results,” Bild quoted him as saying.
Germany has the second largest gold reserves in the world, and keeps 37% of them – about 1,236 metric tons worth 113 billion euros – in the vaults of the Federal Reserve System of New York. These reserves of the precious metal ensure that the Bundesbank will have access to what it can exchange for US dollars (or any other hard currency) if needed.
German politicians are concerned about both Trump’s tariff policy and his attempts to expand his powers and become above the US judicial system.
In February, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told Bild: “We have (…) no doubt that in the New York Fed we have a reliable partner for the storage of our foreign exchange reserves.”
The publication points out that concerns about the fate of gold have been exacerbated by “none other than billionaire and senior Trump administration official Elon Musk, who called for a review of the US’s own foreign exchange reserves.”
Ferrexpo plc, a mining company with major assets in Ukraine, produced 1 million 347.749 thousand tons of pellets in January-March this year, down 26% year-on-year (1 million 813.973 thousand tons).
According to the company’s press release on Monday, the total production of marketable products (pellets and iron ore concentrate) in 1Q2025 increased by 3% compared to 1Q2024 to 2 million 125.467 thousand tons. In particular, the production of iron ore concentrate amounted to 777,718 thousand tons compared to 240,516 thousand tons in 1Q2024. The company also produced 81,879 thousand tons of DR pellets (not produced in Q1-2014), 1 million 105,049 thousand tons of premium pellets (down 36%) and 160,913 thousand tons of other pellets (up 95%).
The press release notes that during the quarter, the group operated two pelletizing lines (out of four) in addition to producing commercial concentrate, however, due to the recently announced suspension of VAT refunds, operations were reduced to one line.
Commenting on the group’s performance, Lucio Genovese, interim CEO, stated that in the first quarter of 2025, total commercial production was the highest quarterly figure since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. This is due to increased production of high-grade concentrates sold to customers in Asia, combined with stable production of premium products. We
“The increase in production, however, did not translate into improved earnings due to persistently high production costs, in particular imported electricity, and deteriorating premiums and prices for iron ore pellets. The environment in which we operate is becoming increasingly challenging. In March, the Ukrainian tax authorities announced their decision to suspend VAT refunds for January 2025 to our two main operating subsidiaries, PGOK and Yenakiieve Iron Ore Enrichment, in the total amount of UAH 512.9 million (approximately $12.5 million). This suspension of VAT refunds, which is significant, resulted in a decrease in available liquidity to finance operations. This has forced us to immediately reduce our operations to one pellet production line and implement significant cost-cutting measures across the business, impacting labor, mining and processing, repair and maintenance, capital expenditures, and humanitarian and social funding,” Genovese emphasized.
According to him, this will have a broader impact on the economic and social fabric of the 50,000-strong city of Horishni Plavni, where the company is the main employer, and the Poltava region and the 3,000 small and local businesses that depend on Ferrexpo. It will also have an impact on the national economy through reduced taxes and fees, payments to suppliers, including energy suppliers, UZ and ports.
“We continue to appeal to the Ukrainian government and other stakeholders to restore VAT refunds so that we can maintain our business at higher operating levels, support our workforce and the integrity of our operations,” the top manager emphasized.
As reported earlier, Ferrexpo increased pellet production by 58% in 2024 compared to 2023, up to 6 million 70.541 thousand tons from 3 million 845.325 thousand tons. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company produced 1 million 503.373 thousand tons of pellets, up 18% quarter-on-quarter (1 million 269.727 thousand tons).
At the same time, the total production of marketable products (pellets and iron ore concentrate) in 2024 increased by 66% compared to 2023, to 6 million 889.879 thousand tons from 4 million 152.028 thousand tons. In particular, the production of salable concentrate amounted to 819,338 thousand tons compared to 306,703 thousand tons in 2023. The company also produced 489,720 thousand tons of DR pellets, 4 million 984,990 thousand tons of premium pellets and 595,831 thousand tons of other pellets.
In 2023, Ferrexpo produced 3.845 million tons of pellets, which is 36.5% less than in 2022.
Ferrexpo owns a 100% stake in Yeristovo Mining, 99.9% in Bilanivsky GOK and 100% in Poltava Mining.
Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the fifth week of spring, from March 29 to April 4, with the end of school holidays, increased by 11.4% – from 237 thousand to 264 thousand, according to the State Border Guard Service’s Facebook page.
According to the data, the flow of people leaving the country decreased by 11.8% – from 254 thousand to 237 thousand.
Thus, the net inflow to Ukraine for this week amounted to 40 thousand and completely covered the net outflow for the previous two weeks, which amounted to 33 thousand.
The number of vehicles that crossed the checkpoints this week decreased from 124 thousand to 122 thousand, while the flow of vehicles with humanitarian cargo increased from 546 to 625.
According to the State Border Guard Service, as of 6:00 a.m. on Sunday, there were no queues at all checkpoints on Ukraine’s western border.
The total number of people crossing the border this week in 2025 is slightly higher than last year’s: 232 thousand people left and 252 thousand entered Ukraine in the same seven days, with a traffic flow of 117 thousand. Last year, in the fifth week of spring, passenger traffic fell by 10.0%, and the following week it fell by another 2.5%.
As reported, on May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the outbreak of war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022 and amounted to 409 thousand people. However, since the end of September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving has been exceeding the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223 thousand people.
In the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Guard Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25 thousand, while in the third year – by 187 thousand, and since the beginning of the fourth year – by another 19 thousand.
As Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank estimated the outflow from Ukraine in 2024 at 0.5 million (0.315 million according to the State Border Guard Service). In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad will increase to 6.8 million in 2024. The NBU also maintained its outflow forecast for 2025 at 0.2 million.
According to updated data from the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of March 20, 2025, was estimated at 6.373 million, and 6.933 million worldwide, which is 26 thousand more than as of February 19.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data, 3.665 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), including approximately 160 thousand people, were displaced from the frontline areas in the east and south between May and October 2024 due to the intensification of hostilities.
