The Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association (UREA) supports the revision of electricity transmission tariffs for NPC “Ukrenergo” and proposes simultaneously launching the practical implementation of a mechanism to protect vulnerable electricity consumers and accelerating the introduction of targeted monetary support for the population.
This is stated in the association’s official letter addressed to the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NEURC) and the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, published on Facebook.
“The UAVE emphasizes: the discussion should not be limited solely to the tariff rate. A comprehensive solution is needed—a financially sound tariff must be combined with a gradual reduction of cross-subsidization and the launch of targeted monetary support for vulnerable consumers,” the association stressed.
The UAVE also considers it necessary to work with the Ministry of Social Policy, Ukrenergo, distribution system operators (DSOs), and other stakeholders to develop a data-sharing mechanism for launching targeted monetization of subsidies.
The association asserts that this approach will help maintain the financial stability of the energy sector, preserve social protection for the population, and reduce distortions in the electricity market. The transition to targeted support also aligns with Ukraine’s commitments regarding market liberalization to the EU, the IMF, and other international partners.
In turn, as stated in the association’s appeal to the NEURC and the Ministry of Energy, the UEA supports Ukrenergo’s position on the electricity transmission tariff, as the financial stability of the transmission system operator (TSO) is critical for the reliable operation of the power system, the fulfillment of special obligations, stable settlements between market participants, and the restoration of energy infrastructure.
The association cited Ukrenergo data, according to which the projected volume of electricity transmission in 2026 will be approximately 89.6 million MWh, which is significantly lower than the figure used when setting the current tariff. At the same time, costs to cover transmission losses have increased, the configuration of power grids is changing, and the volumes of electricity imports and long-distance transmission are growing—a situation that, against the backdrop of ongoing damage to energy infrastructure, requires significant financial investment.
“Trends such as the accumulation of debt among market participants, deteriorating payment discipline, reduced opportunities for the restoration and development of grid infrastructure, and a decline in the investment attractiveness of the energy sector—all in the absence of a source to cover the TSO’s costs—will intensify,” the UAVE emphasized.
At the same time, as the association noted, amid systematic attacks on energy infrastructure, the development of distributed generation, renewable energy sources (RES), and energy storage systems has become one of the key elements of energy security, as these facilities provide additional stability to the power system, increase its flexibility and maneuverability, and reduce the risk of shortages.
“Therefore, ensuring timely and predictable payments to renewable energy producers is not only a matter of fulfilling financial obligations but also a crucial factor in the further development of Ukraine’s energy resilience,” the UAVE concluded.
As reported, the NEURC proposes setting the tariff for NPC “Ukrenergo” for electricity transmission at 903.53 UAH/MWh (excluding VAT) effective July 1, 2026, which is 21.62% higher than the current rate.
It is noted that the updated tariff component for Ukrenergo’s special obligations regarding payment for electricity from alternative sources amounts to 367.56 UAH/MWh within the transmission tariff structure.
Accordingly, it is proposed to increase the dispatch tariff by 7.83% to 118.64 UAH/MWh.
The Experts Club analytical center assesses the situation in Ukraine’s warehouse real estate market in 2026 as a transition phase from post-shock recovery to a new growth cycle, in which the main constraints are not demand but a shortage of high-quality space, high construction costs, and security risks.
Following a sharp decline in 2022, when a significant portion of the Kyiv region’s warehouse infrastructure was damaged or destroyed, the market gradually resumed activity in 2023–2025. The most notable recovery occurred in the Kyiv region and in western Ukraine, primarily in the Lviv region.
By the end of 2025, the Kyiv warehouse market had shown the highest level of activity in the past decade. Gross absorption of warehouse space reached approximately 217,000 sq. m, which is 30% more than the previous year. New supply amounted to approximately 216,000 sq. m, and total supply effectively returned to pre-war levels—about 1.57 million sq. m.
Vacancy rates in the Kyiv market remained very low—around 3.5%. This means that despite the introduction of a significant volume of new space, the market is quickly absorbing it. For tenants, this creates a challenge in finding large, high-quality spaces, especially those exceeding 5,000–10,000 sq. m. For developers and property owners, however, this creates conditions for a gradual increase in rental rates and the launch of new projects.
In 2026, Experts Club expects more balanced dynamics. Following a record-breaking 2025, the volume of new supply in the Kyiv region may decline to approximately 90,000 sq. m. This means that the increase in supply will be significantly lower than last year, while demand from key tenant groups will remain steady.
The main drivers of demand remain retail, e-commerce, 3PL operators, the pharmaceutical sector, distributors, FMCG companies, and businesses that are restructuring their logistics to adapt to wartime conditions. Within the demand structure, the role of companies requiring not just “bare-bones warehouses” but modern Class A and B facilities with energy efficiency, autonomy, enhanced security, docking infrastructure, temperature control capabilities, and adaptation to pharmaceutical or food standards is growing.
Rental rates remain stable. In the Kyiv region, the prime rate in 2025 was approximately $5.3 per square meter per month, excluding VAT and operating costs, which corresponds to the pre-war peak level. In hryvnia terms, rates for dry warehouses have risen by approximately 9% since the start of the year and ranged between 200–250 UAH per sq. m per month. In 2026, a further moderate increase in rates is likely, particularly in the segment of high-quality properties with scarce characteristics.
The Lviv region remains the second key center for warehouse real estate development. Its advantages include relative security, proximity to the EU border, its role as a western logistics hub, and demand from relocated businesses, e-commerce, retail, and international operators. Average rates in the Lviv region for Class A and B warehouses in 2025 were approximately $5–5.5 per sq. m per month, and according to some estimates, $6–6.5 in high-quality properties.
At the same time, a local increase in vacancy rates is already noticeable in the Lviv region due to the introduction of new phases of warehouse complexes. This does not indicate oversupply, but signals a gradual transition of the market to a more competitive phase. The most promising areas remain those near the Polish border, routes toward Kyiv, and zones of future industrial parks.
In the central regions, particularly the Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil regions, demand is driven primarily by agricultural companies, local manufacturers, distributors, and businesses seeking to locate warehouses closer to domestic consumers. These regions lag behind Kyiv and Lviv in terms of liquidity but have potential for the development of Class B warehouses, agri-logistics, production-and-warehouse complexes, and regional distribution.
The eastern and frontline regions remain the highest-risk areas. There, demand is largely concentrated on temporary or lower-grade warehouse space, but investment activity is constrained by security concerns. Dnipro retains its status as a major industrial and logistics hub, but investors apply a higher risk premium to projects there.
A key trend for 2026 is the growing demand for specialized formats. This includes multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical warehouses, food logistics facilities, e-commerce facilities, last-mile logistics near major cities, as well as build-to-suit projects tailored to specific tenants. The supply shortage is most acute in these formats.
A separate factor is energy resilience. Following attacks on the power grid, tenants are increasingly evaluating warehouses not only based on location and rent, but also on the presence of generators, alternative energy sources, high-quality engineering, backup power capabilities, fire safety, and stable operation during outages.
Investor interest in warehouse real estate is recovering but remains selective. The most attractive assets are ready-to-use or nearly ready Class A warehouses in the Kyiv and Lviv regions, as well as projects with reliable tenants and long-term leases. For investors, the key considerations are not only yield but also asset liquidity, tenant quality, location security, and the cost of completion.
Current market yields on high-quality warehouse assets in Ukraine may remain higher than in most EU countries due to a war risk premium. However, it is precisely this premium that is the main constraint on the widespread influx of institutional capital. Foreign investors are interested in the segment but are mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach or considering partnerships with local players.
For developers, 2026 will be challenging due to high construction costs. Rising costs of materials, energy, logistics, insurance, financing, and construction work are limiting the launch of new projects, especially without a prior lease agreement. Therefore, the share of speculative construction will remain limited, while build-to-suit and phased development will be more popular models.
Key market risks in 2026:
security threats and the risk of infrastructure damage;
a shortage of high-quality land plots near key transportation corridors;
high construction and financing costs;
currency risks associated with hryvnia-denominated rent payments;
a shortage of large ready-to-use lots;
limited access to long-term capital;
instability in energy supply;
caution among foreign investors.
At the same time, fundamental demand for warehouse real estate remains strong. The Ukrainian market is still structurally underserved with high-quality logistics space compared to Central European countries. The war has accelerated changes in logistics: businesses need more flexible warehouses, closer to consumers, with better engineering, autonomy, and the ability to quickly adjust supply chains.
According to Experts Club’s base scenario, in 2026, Ukraine’s warehouse real estate market will see moderate growth in rental rates, low vacancy rates in the Kyiv region, activity in the Lviv region, and a gradual expansion of high-quality supply in central regions. The greatest demand will be for Class A properties, multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical logistics, last-mile warehouses, and build-to-suit projects.
The optimistic scenario anticipates a more active return of foreign capital, the launch of new industrial parks, and accelerated construction in western and central Ukraine. The negative scenario is linked to heightened security risks, further damage to logistics infrastructure, rising financing costs, and a decline in investment activity.
Experts Club Conclusion: warehouse real estate remains one of the most resilient segments of Ukraine’s commercial real estate market. By 2026, this market will no longer appear to be in crisis, but it will not yet be fully normalized. Its main characteristic is a shortage of quality supply while real demand from retail, logistics, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and distribution remains steady.
For developers, this means an opportunity to launch new projects provided they work closely with tenants. For investors, it is a chance to enter a segment with higher returns but increased risk. For tenants, it is a necessity to plan warehouse needs in advance, as finding a high-quality large warehouse “here and now” in Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult.
OpenAI, the U.S.-based developer of ChatGPT, has privately filed for an initial public offering in the United States, Reuters reports, citing sources.
According to the agency, the company may be targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion, and the offering could take place as early as September 2026. However, the specific terms of the IPO, the size of the offering, and the timing of the listing have not yet been officially disclosed.
A potential OpenAI IPO could become one of the largest offerings in the history of the tech sector and a significant test for the artificial intelligence market. Investor interest in AI companies remains high amid growing demand for generative AI, cloud infrastructure, data centers, and computing power.
OpenAI became one of the most prominent companies in the field of artificial intelligence following the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. The service quickly became a mass-market product and intensified competition among the largest tech companies for leadership in generative AI.
OpenAI’s IPO could provide the company with additional capital to develop infrastructure, train new models, and compete with other market players. At the same time, its public status will require the company to demonstrate greater financial transparency and regularly disclose performance metrics to investors.
OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a research organization in the field of artificial intelligence. The company is known for its ChatGPT products, developer APIs, the GPT family of models, image and video generation tools, and corporate AI solutions. Among OpenAI’s key investors and partners is Microsoft, which actively integrates the company’s technologies into its own products and the Azure cloud platform.
OpenAI’s main competitors in the artificial intelligence market include Anthropic, the developer of Claude; Google DeepMind with its Gemini models; Meta with the Llama family; Elon Musk’s xAI with Grok; the French company Mistral AI; as well as Perplexity, Cohere, and a number of other companies developing generative AI, enterprise language models, and AI search.
Competition in the sector is intensifying not only due to the quality of models but also due to access to chips, data centers, corporate clients, and distribution. In this context, OpenAI’s IPO could become not just a financial event but a new phase in the battle for leadership in the global artificial intelligence market.
The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted Bill No. 15111-d on the automatic exchange of information regarding income earned through digital platforms in its second reading and as a whole. The bill was supported by 241 members of parliament.
If the president signs the law, the rules for taxing the income of citizens who earn money through online platforms will change in Ukraine. This includes the sale of goods, property rentals, the provision of personal services, vehicle rentals, and other transactions conducted through digital services.
In practice, the law may affect users of marketplaces, classified ad services, delivery platforms, taxi services, housing rentals, freelance services, and other platforms through which individuals earn income.
The main change is that platforms will be required to provide tax authorities with information about users’ income and, in some cases, act as tax agents. This means that tax may be withheld automatically, without the need for a separate tax return from the individual.
For users, this means bringing part of their income out of the “gray zone.” Whereas previously, the sale of goods or services online was often not declared, after the new mechanism is launched, information about such income will be reported to the tax authorities.
In the final version of the bill, some of the controversial provisions were softened. The requirement for sellers to open special accounts and provisions regarding the disclosure of bank secrecy were removed from the text. The final version also provides for a preferential 5% personal income tax rate on income earned through digital platforms. However, taking into account the military levy, the actual tax burden for citizens could amount to about 10% of their income.
This means that for income of 1,000 UAH earned through the platform, the tax burden could be about 100 UAH; for 5,000 UAH, about 500 UAH; for 10,000 UAH, about 1,000 UAH; and for 20,000 UAH, about 2,000 UAH.
As noted by the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, if a person earns 30,000 UAH per month through the platform, their additional tax expenses could amount to about 3,000 UAH per month, or 36,000 UAH per year. With an income of 50,000 UAH per month—about 5,000 UAH per month, or 60,000 UAH per year.
For citizens who sell personal items on an irregular basis, the impact may be limited, but for those who are effectively engaged in ongoing commercial activity through marketplaces or classified ad services, expenses will increase significantly.
Estimated calculation:
Income via the platform of 5,000 UAH per month — tax of about 500 UAH, net income of about 4,500 UAH.
Income of 10,000 UAH per month — tax of about 1,000 UAH, net income of about 9,000 UAH.
Income of 20,000 UAH per month — tax of about 2,000 UAH, net income of about 18,000 UAH.
Income of 50,000 UAH per month — tax of about 5,000 UAH, net income of about 45,000 UAH.
Income of 100,000 UAH per year — tax of about 10,000 UAH.
Annual income of 300,000 UAH — tax of about 30,000 UAH.
Annual income of 600,000 UAH — tax of about 60,000 UAH.
For buyers, a second effect is possible: some sellers may try to pass the tax on to the price of the goods or services. To maintain their previous net income, the seller will have to raise the price by approximately 11%.
For example, if a seller previously wanted to earn a “net” 1,000 UAH, then with a 10% withholding, they would need to set the price at around 1,111 UAH. Then, after taxes, approximately 1,000 UAH would remain.
If the previous price of a service was 5,000 UAH, then to maintain the same net income, the price may rise to approximately 5,556 UAH. For a good or service priced at 10,000 UAH—to approximately 11,111 UAH.
However, an automatic increase in all prices should not be expected. In competitive categories, some sellers may absorb the tax burden themselves to avoid losing customers. In less competitive segments, the tax is more likely to be partially factored into the price.
For the state, the law is important not only as a tax tool. Its adoption is part of Ukraine’s commitments to international partners, including the IMF and the EU. The document is linked to the implementation of international automatic exchange of tax information on income via digital platforms.
For the market, this means increased transparency in online commerce and services. For citizens, it means the need to recognize that income generated through platforms is gradually ceasing to be “invisible” to the tax authorities.
Key takeaway: The law does not impose a tax on the mere use of platforms, but it does make income generated through them subject to oversight. For those who sell goods or provide services on a regular basis, additional costs could amount to about 10% of turnover, taking into account personal income tax and the military levy. If sellers pass these costs on to customers, final prices could rise by approximately 10–11%.
The international financial service NovaPay (TM NovaPay), part of the Nova Group, has fully placed its 14th bond issue—Series “N”—issued by its subsidiary NovaPay Credit, with a face value of UAH 200 million.
According to the company, the bonds were issued in the traditional denomination of UAH 1,000 each, with a coupon rate of 18% per annum payable at maturity, and will be used in repo transactions, which serve as an alternative to deposits.
The financial service plans to allocate the funds raised from the placement of Series “N” to the development of credit products.
“Series N is a continuation of the course we have consistently followed since 2023. We were the first in the industry to offer Ukrainians public corporate bonds during a full-scale war, and this past May we fully redeemed the second such issue,” said Yana Levada, acting Deputy CEO for Retail Business at NovaPay, as quoted in the press release.
The website of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) reports that the bond placement report was approved on May 22, 2026.
On the same day, the Commission registered NovaPay’s 15th bond issue—Series “O”—with a total nominal value of UAH 200 million, which will be carried out through a public offering.
The company noted that as of early 2026, more than 7,900 clients had become holders of NovaPay bonds, with the total portfolio exceeding UAH 4 billion.
In February, NovaPay announced the full placement of Series “M” bonds with a nominal value of UAH 200 million.
In total, between 2023 and 2025, NovaPay carried out 13 bond issues with a total nominal value of UAH 1.39 billion. Securities from all series, except for three, are used for the repo program as an alternative to bank deposits; they are available for purchase in the NovaPay mobile app, and interest payments on them are scheduled to be made once upon redemption. Interest payments on bonds for institutional investors are made quarterly. They also come with an annual offer, and the nominal yield rate for the first year of circulation is 18% per annum. Series “K” is the third for institutional investors, but the first such series, “A,” worth UAH 100 million, was redeemed this year.
NovaPay was founded in 2001 as an international financial service, part of the Nova Group (“Nova Poshta”), and provides financial services both online and offline at “Nova Poshta” branches. In 2023, the company became the first non-bank financial institution in Ukraine to receive an expanded license from the NBU, which allowed it to open accounts and issue cards, and at the end of last year, it became the first non-bank to launch its own financial app offering a wide range of financial services.
In 2025, NovaPay increased its revenue by 10.4% to UAH 10.01 billion, while its net profit decreased by 22% to UAH 2.58 billion.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company increased the volume of transfers by 53% compared to the same period in 2025—to over UAH 200 billion—while the number of transactions grew by 12%—to 126 million.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the company accounts for approximately 22.7% of the total volume of domestic money transfers.
