The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted Bill No. 15111-d on the automatic exchange of information regarding income earned through digital platforms in its second reading and as a whole. The bill was supported by 241 members of parliament.
If the president signs the law, the rules for taxing the income of citizens who earn money through online platforms will change in Ukraine. This includes the sale of goods, property rentals, the provision of personal services, vehicle rentals, and other transactions conducted through digital services.
In practice, the law may affect users of marketplaces, classified ad services, delivery platforms, taxi services, housing rentals, freelance services, and other platforms through which individuals earn income.
The main change is that platforms will be required to provide tax authorities with information about users’ income and, in some cases, act as tax agents. This means that tax may be withheld automatically, without the need for a separate tax return from the individual.
For users, this means bringing part of their income out of the “gray zone.” Whereas previously, the sale of goods or services online was often not declared, after the new mechanism is launched, information about such income will be reported to the tax authorities.
In the final version of the bill, some of the controversial provisions were softened. The requirement for sellers to open special accounts and provisions regarding the disclosure of bank secrecy were removed from the text. The final version also provides for a preferential 5% personal income tax rate on income earned through digital platforms. However, taking into account the military levy, the actual tax burden for citizens could amount to about 10% of their income.
This means that for income of 1,000 UAH earned through the platform, the tax burden could be about 100 UAH; for 5,000 UAH, about 500 UAH; for 10,000 UAH, about 1,000 UAH; and for 20,000 UAH, about 2,000 UAH.
As noted by the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, if a person earns 30,000 UAH per month through the platform, their additional tax expenses could amount to about 3,000 UAH per month, or 36,000 UAH per year. With an income of 50,000 UAH per month—about 5,000 UAH per month, or 60,000 UAH per year.
For citizens who sell personal items on an irregular basis, the impact may be limited, but for those who are effectively engaged in ongoing commercial activity through marketplaces or classified ad services, expenses will increase significantly.
Estimated calculation:
Income via the platform of 5,000 UAH per month — tax of about 500 UAH, net income of about 4,500 UAH.
Income of 10,000 UAH per month — tax of about 1,000 UAH, net income of about 9,000 UAH.
Income of 20,000 UAH per month — tax of about 2,000 UAH, net income of about 18,000 UAH.
Income of 50,000 UAH per month — tax of about 5,000 UAH, net income of about 45,000 UAH.
Income of 100,000 UAH per year — tax of about 10,000 UAH.
Annual income of 300,000 UAH — tax of about 30,000 UAH.
Annual income of 600,000 UAH — tax of about 60,000 UAH.
For buyers, a second effect is possible: some sellers may try to pass the tax on to the price of the goods or services. To maintain their previous net income, the seller will have to raise the price by approximately 11%.
For example, if a seller previously wanted to earn a “net” 1,000 UAH, then with a 10% withholding, they would need to set the price at around 1,111 UAH. Then, after taxes, approximately 1,000 UAH would remain.
If the previous price of a service was 5,000 UAH, then to maintain the same net income, the price may rise to approximately 5,556 UAH. For a good or service priced at 10,000 UAH—to approximately 11,111 UAH.
However, an automatic increase in all prices should not be expected. In competitive categories, some sellers may absorb the tax burden themselves to avoid losing customers. In less competitive segments, the tax is more likely to be partially factored into the price.
For the state, the law is important not only as a tax tool. Its adoption is part of Ukraine’s commitments to international partners, including the IMF and the EU. The document is linked to the implementation of international automatic exchange of tax information on income via digital platforms.
For the market, this means increased transparency in online commerce and services. For citizens, it means the need to recognize that income generated through platforms is gradually ceasing to be “invisible” to the tax authorities.
Key takeaway: The law does not impose a tax on the mere use of platforms, but it does make income generated through them subject to oversight. For those who sell goods or provide services on a regular basis, additional costs could amount to about 10% of turnover, taking into account personal income tax and the military levy. If sellers pass these costs on to customers, final prices could rise by approximately 10–11%.
The international financial service NovaPay (TM NovaPay), part of the Nova Group, has fully placed its 14th bond issue—Series “N”—issued by its subsidiary NovaPay Credit, with a face value of UAH 200 million.
According to the company, the bonds were issued in the traditional denomination of UAH 1,000 each, with a coupon rate of 18% per annum payable at maturity, and will be used in repo transactions, which serve as an alternative to deposits.
The financial service plans to allocate the funds raised from the placement of Series “N” to the development of credit products.
“Series N is a continuation of the course we have consistently followed since 2023. We were the first in the industry to offer Ukrainians public corporate bonds during a full-scale war, and this past May we fully redeemed the second such issue,” said Yana Levada, acting Deputy CEO for Retail Business at NovaPay, as quoted in the press release.
The website of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) reports that the bond placement report was approved on May 22, 2026.
On the same day, the Commission registered NovaPay’s 15th bond issue—Series “O”—with a total nominal value of UAH 200 million, which will be carried out through a public offering.
The company noted that as of early 2026, more than 7,900 clients had become holders of NovaPay bonds, with the total portfolio exceeding UAH 4 billion.
In February, NovaPay announced the full placement of Series “M” bonds with a nominal value of UAH 200 million.
In total, between 2023 and 2025, NovaPay carried out 13 bond issues with a total nominal value of UAH 1.39 billion. Securities from all series, except for three, are used for the repo program as an alternative to bank deposits; they are available for purchase in the NovaPay mobile app, and interest payments on them are scheduled to be made once upon redemption. Interest payments on bonds for institutional investors are made quarterly. They also come with an annual offer, and the nominal yield rate for the first year of circulation is 18% per annum. Series “K” is the third for institutional investors, but the first such series, “A,” worth UAH 100 million, was redeemed this year.
NovaPay was founded in 2001 as an international financial service, part of the Nova Group (“Nova Poshta”), and provides financial services both online and offline at “Nova Poshta” branches. In 2023, the company became the first non-bank financial institution in Ukraine to receive an expanded license from the NBU, which allowed it to open accounts and issue cards, and at the end of last year, it became the first non-bank to launch its own financial app offering a wide range of financial services.
In 2025, NovaPay increased its revenue by 10.4% to UAH 10.01 billion, while its net profit decreased by 22% to UAH 2.58 billion.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company increased the volume of transfers by 53% compared to the same period in 2025—to over UAH 200 billion—while the number of transactions grew by 12%—to 126 million.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the company accounts for approximately 22.7% of the total volume of domestic money transfers.
Vchasno Group, a group of Ukrainian IT companies, has signed an agreement to increase its stake in the home healthcare service “Medix Opika” (Medix Opika LLC and Medix Management Company), with which it began collaborating in 2025, to 73.5%, according to a company announcement on LinkedIn on Tuesday.
“Interest in ‘Medix Opika’ was driven by the service’s operational model, its potential for scaling, and the significant role of digital tools in the company’s operations,” Vchasno Group co-founder and CEO Mykola Palienko is quoted as saying in the release.
According to the announcement, by the end of 2026, the company plans to expand the medical service’s presence in communities and regional centers, develop specialized areas of medical care, and increase the volume of services for veterans with severe injuries.
According to information on the Vchasno Group’s official website, over the past year, “Medix Opika” has expanded its operations eightfold. Specifically, the company currently serves more than 8,000 patients, provides services in 19 regions of Ukraine, and employs over 350 doctors of various specializations who form multidisciplinary teams in the regions where the service operates.
It is noted that the medical care service operates under contracts with the National Health Service of Ukraine (NHSU) and provides medical services in a home care setting. The service’s activities include stabilizing patients’ conditions, providing medical care at home, and training family members on how to respond to emergencies.
Vchasno Group is a group of Ukrainian IT companies that creates digital solutions for businesses and the government; Mykola Palienko is the group’s co-owner and CEO. The company’s projects include the “Vchasno” service and the Zakupivli.Pro platform for government and commercial procurement.
The “Vchasno” service is designed for companies and individuals and allows users to sign, exchange, and store electronic documents. The ecosystem includes the services “Vchasno.KEP,” “Vchasno.EDI,” “Vchasno.Zvit,” “Vchasno.Kasa,” “Vchasno.TTN,” and “Vchasno. Kadry.”
According to data from YouControl, in 2025, Medix Management Company LLC (Khmelnytskyi) increased its revenue 4.4-fold—to UAH 127.94 million—while its net profit grew 11.3-fold—to UAH 15.38 million.
In addition to Zakupivli. Pro,“ which owns 73.75%, the co-owners of ”Medix Opika” also include Director Volodymyr Buzhan—5%, Oleksandr Rusin—15%, Dmytro Matsiuk and Serhiy Moskalchuk—2.5% each, as well as Oleksii Marunchak—1.25%, while the beneficiaries listed are Palienko – 41.25% and Rusin – 33.75%.
IT, medical services, Medix Opika, National Health Service of Ukraine, VCHASNO GROUP
The European Commission proposes new sanctions against Russia in the areas of finance and cryptocurrencies: for the first time, a complete ban on crypto-asset services in third countries is being proposed, and new banks have been added to the list.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced this on Tuesday in Brussels while unveiling the 21st package of sanctions against Russia.
“My second point concerns financial and cryptocurrency restrictions. We are expanding our banking transactions to include 31 Russian banks and up to 20 crypto firms or platforms and oil traders in third countries that have served Russian organizations and individuals subject to sanctions or circumvented our measures,” she said.
It is also proposed to impose a complete ban on crypto-asset services in third countries. “This will be a powerful deterrent for hosting platforms in countries that help Russia circumvent our sanctions,” von der Leyen emphasized.
BANKS, CRYPTOCURRENCY, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, RUSSIA, SANCTIONS
The “Angel-Guardian” Charitable Foundation has donated a modern WAW WATER water treatment plant to the “Kyiv Sport” Children’s and Youth Sports School, which will provide the school’s students with drinking water, announced Vilen Fatalov, chairman of the foundation’s supervisory board.
According to him, this is already the third water treatment plant donated to children’s and social institutions as part of the foundation’s program.
The plant was provided by Boris Vykhovants Research Center LLC, the manufacturer of WAW WATER water treatment systems.
The handover ceremony was attended by the chairman of the supervisory board of the “Angel-Guardian” Charitable Foundation Vilen Fatalov, the foundation’s ambassador, actor and TV host Yevgen Koshovyi, the head of the Svyatoshynskyi District State Administration in Kyiv, Heorhii Zantaria, the foundation’s director Leonid Dembitskyi, and the founder of the Research Center, Boris Vykhovanets.
“Caring for children’s health is an investment in the future of our country. We are convinced that creating safe and comfortable conditions for learning, sports, and youth development should be one of society’s priorities. That is why the foundation consistently supports projects aimed at improving the quality of life for children,” noted Fatalov.
Foundation ambassador Yevgen Koshovyi emphasized the importance of supporting the younger generation.
“Our children are the future of Ukraine. They will study, work, rebuild the country, and bring it glory through their achievements. That is why it is extremely important today to create the best conditions for their development and healthy lives,” he said.
Georgiy Zantaria, Head of the Svyatoshyn District State Administration, highlighted the significance of such initiatives for the development of children’s sports.
“The development of youth sports is inextricably linked to the formation of a healthy nation. Every step aimed at improving conditions for training and the daily lives of young athletes is a contribution to Ukraine’s future success and the strengthening of our citizens’ health,” Zantaria noted.
According to Boris Vykhovants, the WAW WATER system is a compact water treatment station with a multi-stage system for purifying, enriching, and structuring water. The unit involves ten sequential stages of filtration and purification to remove mechanical, organic, and other impurities from the water.
The manufacturer notes that the system was developed and is manufactured in Ukraine based on years of research into the properties of water. According to the company, the technology also reduces the content of radionuclides and radioactive isotopes in water.
The foundation noted that previously, with the assistance of the “Angel-Guardian” Charitable Foundation, similar water treatment stations were donated to the Teteriv Psychoneurological Boarding School and the Novoboriv Children’s Boarding School.
The “Angel-Guardian” Charitable Foundation implements humanitarian and social initiatives aimed at supporting children, social institutions, and vulnerable segments of the population, engaging businesses, the public, and government agencies in cooperation.
The foundation also expressed its gratitude to volunteers Dmytro Bezpaly and Oleg Titov for their long-standing cooperation and support.
The “Angel-Guardian” Charitable Foundation is a charitable organization that implements social and humanitarian projects in Ukraine. The foundation’s main areas of activity include helping children, supporting social institutions, and improving conditions for education, development, rehabilitation, and daily life for vulnerable groups.
CHARITABLE FOUNDATION, Children’s and Youth Sports School, Guardian Angel, Kyiv Sports, WAW WATER
