In a new episode of the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who estimates that about 50% of citizens will return after the war.
“Demographics is an important factor for economic recovery, but the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in the demographic growth potential in Ukraine can only be offset by migration,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
Prospects for the Global Economy
The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP in developed countries. We are witnessing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. These rate hikes are driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, they limit economic activity,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, economy review, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN, world economy
Representatives of the Slovak carriers’ union blocked truck traffic through the Vysne-Nemecke checkpoint, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported on Monday.
“This information was reported at 16.10 by Slovak border guards. Carriers are restricting the movement of trucks traveling from Ukraine to Slovakia. The traffic of trucks leaving Slovakia is not blocked,” the telegram channel said.
Currently, there are 1263 trucks in the electronic queue to leave Slovakia at the Uzhhorod checkpoint, adjacent to the Slovak Vysne Nemecke checkpoint. Passenger cars and buses are being processed as usual.
OTP Bank (Kyiv) has signed a loan agreement with Concern Khlibprom PJSC, part of OKKO Group, for UAH 200 million for a three-year period to replenish working capital, the financial institution said in a release on Monday.
“Financing of food industry enterprises is currently one of the priority areas for the development of OTP Bank’s corporate business. The agreement with Concern Khlibprom is another confirmation of the successful implementation of this strategy,” Alla Biniashvili, a member of the Management Board of OTP Bank, said in the statement.
There is no information on the cost of the loan and its other terms.
According to the release, Concern Khlkbprom is one of the largest enterprises in the Ukrainian bread market, producing over 160 tons of bread, bakery, confectionery, and semi-finished dough and coffee products daily. The company’s structure includes five production units with a total staff of over 3000 employees.
In particular, the company’s products are represented on the Ukrainian and international markets by such brands as Agrola, Vinnytsiakhlib, Bandinelli, TM 2GO, Grill & Bakery, and Ljubljana. Khlibprom also owns its own coffee brand Harmony Sentivi.
“In 2022, Concern Khlibprom increased its net profit by 23.7% to UAH 21.1 million on revenue growth of 15.4% to UAH 1 billion 702.1 million, and its assets grew by 8.4% to UAH 920.3 million. Long-term liabilities increased by 1.2% to UAH 270.2 million, while current liabilities increased by 16.5% to UAH 327.7 million.
Effective interest rates on hryvnia loans ranged from 13.31% to 15.95% at the beginning of this year.
OTP Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hungarian OTP Bank Plc, was 10th among 63 Ukrainian banks in terms of total assets (UAH 103.14 billion) as of the beginning of October 2023.
Polish carriers have ended the blockade of the Dorohusk-Yahodyn checkpoint, and truck traffic is moving as usual, the State Border Guard Service reports.
“Today at 2 p.m., the protest action of Polish carriers in front of the Dorohusk-Yagodyn checkpoint ended. Registration and passage of trucks across the border in both directions is carried out as usual,” the State Border Guard Service said in a statement posted on its telegram channel on Monday.
Drivers are asked to take this information into account when planning international transportation.
According to the State Customs Service, as of now, there are 1,000 trucks in line to enter Ukraine, 0 buses, 100 trucks to leave Ukraine, 473 trucks in the electronic queue, and 0 buses.
Key indicators of state budget (monthly), UAH bln
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Yulia Svyrydenko, First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, and Peter Kmec, Vice Prime Minister for Recovery, Resilience and Use of European Funds of Slovakia, discussed the possibility of oil supplies through the Odesa-Brody pipeline.
“We discussed the situation at border crossings, bilateral trade, industrial cooperation, and energy. We are inspired by the implemented project to supply oil through Ukraine to Slovakia through the port terminal and pipeline from Odesa,” Svyrydenko wrote on Twitter (X).
According to her, Ukraine is also interested in providing Slovakia with natural gas storage services in its underground storage facilities (UGS).
As part of the Ukrainian delegation’s visit, Ukrtransnafta CEO Volodymyr Tsependa met with a representative of the operator of the Slovak section of the Druzhba pipeline, Transpetrol’s Chairman of the Board of Directors Martin Ruzhynsky.
According to the Ukrainian operator, the parties summarized the results of cooperation in 2023 and discussed plans for organizing transportation work for the next year.
“The results of the year demonstrate well-coordinated cooperation with our European partners. We want to maintain this result in the future, so we discussed all issues related to oil transportation in 2024, in particular, the modes of pumping through the Druzhba pipeline,” Cependa said in a statement.
