Ukraine’s potato and vegetable production could decline by a combined 4.69 million tonnes in 2026 compared with the previous year. The sharpest decrease is expected in potato production, where the harvest could fall by more than 21%, the Experts Club information and analytical center reports, citing the National Bank of Ukraine’s updated forecast.
According to the NBU’s October 2026 Inflation Report, published on November 6, potato production is projected at 12.89 million tonnes, vegetable production at 7 million tonnes, and fruit and berry production at 1.77 million tonnes.
The potato harvest forecast was downgraded from 16.40 million to 12.89 million tonnes, a reduction of 21.4%. Compared with 2025, when 16.38 million tonnes were harvested, the expected decline amounts to 3.49 million tonnes. Relative to the pre-war year of 2021, when production reached 21.36 million tonnes, the decrease could approach 40%.
The regulator estimates that Ukraine’s vegetable harvest will reach 7 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 8.2 million tonnes in 2025. Production could therefore decline by 1.2 million tonnes, or 14.6%. Compared with the pre-war level of 2021, the reduction will be almost 30%.
Meanwhile, fruit and berry production is projected at 1.77 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year but approximately 21% below the 2021 level.
Experts Club analysts emphasize that a decline in total harvest volumes does not necessarily imply a proportional reduction in supplies to retail chains. A significant share of potatoes is grown by households for personal consumption, while market availability depends on product quality, storage conditions, and logistics.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine’s potato harvest could reach approximately 12.5 million tonnes in 2026, while direct household consumption is estimated at 2–2.5 million tonnes annually. These figures suggest there is no basis for predicting an inevitable nationwide shortage.
Experts Club founder and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin believes that the main priorities of agricultural policy should include improving productivity, reducing post-harvest losses, and developing modern storage infrastructure.
Investment in irrigation, energy-efficient vegetable storage facilities, refrigeration capacity, food processing, and greenhouse modernization will be particularly important.
The NBU has also downgraded its forecasts for 2027. Expected potato production has been reduced to 13.48 million tonnes, vegetable production to 7.4 million tonnes, and fruit and berry production to 1.87 million tonnes.
Experts note that declining output creates risks of additional price pressure, although food prices will also depend on imports, inventories, logistics, and seasonal factors.
According to the NBU forecast, overall inflation in Ukraine could reach 12.5% by the end of 2026, slow to 7.3% in 2027, and return to the 5% target in 2028.
Tbilisi is preparing to host the international conference AgriFuture Georgia 2026, which will bring together representatives of the agribusiness sector, technology companies, investors, producers, and experts to discuss new opportunities for agricultural development, the implementation of innovations, and the attraction of investment.
The event will serve as a platform for direct dialogue between agricultural producers, suppliers of modern technologies, financial institutions, and companies interested in developing agricultural projects in Georgia and the region.
One of the central themes of AgriFuture Georgia 2026 will be the transformation of agriculture driven by modern technologies. Participants will discuss the automation of production processes, the digitalization of agribusiness, and the application of innovative solutions in crop production, horticulture, and other areas of agricultural production.
Special attention will be given to investments in agriculture and the search for new financing models for agricultural projects. Representatives from the business and investment communities will have the opportunity to discuss promising investment areas, opportunities for scaling up existing operations, and launching new projects.
Another key focus of the conference will be the development of exports. For Georgian and regional producers, entering new markets remains one of the key drivers of further growth; therefore, participants will examine the requirements of international buyers, changes in demand patterns, and opportunities to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products.
The organizers expect the conference to serve not only as a forum for discussion but also as a venue for establishing new business contacts. As part of AgriFuture Georgia 2026, agribusiness representatives will be able to interact directly with potential partners, technology providers, investors, and experts.
The practical application of technologies will play a special role in the program. Participants will be presented with solutions that enable agricultural enterprises to increase productivity, use land, water, and energy resources more efficiently, reduce production costs, and improve product quality.
The holding of AgriFuture Georgia 2026 reflects the growing interest of the business community in the modernization of Georgia’s agricultural sector. The country has favorable conditions for producing fruits, vegetables, nuts, grapes, and other agricultural products; however, the sector’s further development increasingly depends on technological modernization, access to financing, and producers’ ability to operate in international markets.
The conference is aimed at owners and managers of agricultural enterprises, farmers, producers and exporters of agricultural products, investors, representatives of the banking sector, suppliers of equipment and technology, trading companies, international organizations, and industry experts.
AgriFuture Georgia 2026 is set to become a platform where representatives from various segments of the agricultural sector can discuss specific projects and form new partnerships to develop agribusiness in Georgia and the region.
Open4Business – Information Partner of the AgriFuture Georgia 2026 International Conference
As of late September–early October, agricultural exports from Ukraine—amid Russia’s ongoing blockade of Black Sea ports—amount to up to 50% of the potential volume, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky told reporters on Friday.
“Without access to deep-water Black Sea ports, we can export about half of our produce—the portion that has been grown and is intended for export. When we talk about the consequences, this means we are unable to export approximately 30 million metric tons of agricultural products worth about $30 billion during the current marketing year,” he noted.
The minister clarified that in September, 2.4 million metric tons were exported—46% of what was supposed to be exported—including 1.4 million metric tons of grains (38%), 444,000 metric tons of oilseeds (83%), oil—311,000 metric tons, or 64%, and meal—280,000 metric tons, or 46% of the potential required exports.
“This 46% figure has, in fact, remained unchanged since September 20. In other words, we are achieving what we predicted: that 45–50% is the objective maximum given the current logistics channels,” Vysotsky concluded.
According to him, 41%—or 993,000 metric tons—was exported by rail, which is in line with forecasts; 54%—or 1.3 million metric tons—via the Danube; and 5%—or 120,000 metric tons—by road.
“In September, we saw an increase in both rail and Danube shipments compared to August,” the minister added.
Sunflower meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year may increase to 3.3 million metric tons, up from 2.861 million metric tons in the previous season, according to a USDA forecast.
This represents an increase of about 15.3%, according to data from the September report “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade.”
At the same time, sunflower meal production in Ukraine is expected to reach 5.204 million metric tons, which is approximately 20% higher than the 2025/26 marketing year’s figure of 4.337 million metric tons.
The USDA estimates domestic consumption of sunflower meal at 1.875 million metric tons, compared to 1.675 million metric tons the previous season.
Ukraine will retain its second-place position among the world’s largest sunflower meal exporters, behind Russia. Russian exports are forecast at 2.8 million metric tons, while Ukraine’s figure is higher at 3.3 million metric tons; thus, for this product, Ukraine actually outpaces Russia.
Overall, global sunflower meal exports in the new season may increase from 8.809 million metric tons to 10.404 million metric tons, or by approximately 18%.
The growth in meal production is directly linked to the recovery of sunflower processing and increased oil output in the Black Sea region.
Source: USDA FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 2026.
According to The Serbian Economist, based on the latest available official data, the ranking of the average cost of arable land is as follows:
1. Slovenia — 28,348 thousand euros per hectare, data for 2024.
2. Greece — approximately 14,312 thousand euros, 2024.
3. Serbia — 9,583 thousand euros, 2025.
4. Romania — 8.7 thousand euros, 2024.
5. Bulgaria — 8,679 thousand euros, 2024.
6. Croatia — 6,723 thousand euros, 2025.
The data reflects the cost of vacant arable land without buildings or perennial plantings. The periods of statistical observation vary, so the ranking shows the general price level rather than a fully synchronized comparison.
The most expensive land in the region is in Slovenia, where supply is limited and plots are often small and fragmented. In Greece, prices depend heavily on access to water, proximity to the coast, and the possibility of construction. Serbia has already surpassed Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia in terms of average price, although its figures remain approximately 37% below the EU average.
For foreigners, price is not the only criterion. In Serbia, the direct purchase of agricultural land is almost entirely prohibited. In EU countries, citizens of other EU member states typically have more opportunities, while buyers from third countries may face restrictions, reciprocity rules, or the requirement to purchase through a local company.
Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not included in the ranking due to the lack of recent comparable national statistics. Listing prices there may differ significantly from the actual transaction values.
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Agricultural output in Ukraine from January through June 2026 decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2025, while growth for the first five months stood at 1.4%, according to the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat).
According to the published data, the negative trend was driven by the crop production sector at agricultural enterprises, where a decline of 14.8% was recorded.
In contrast, the livestock sector at agricultural enterprises showed growth of 10.7%.
The best performance in crop production across all categories of farms was recorded in the following regions: Volyn (80.1%), Kherson (54.5%), Dnipropetrovsk (23.8%), Ternopil (20.7%), and Cherkasy (16.3%).
The most significant decline in crop production across all categories of farms was recorded in Donetsk Oblast (52.6%), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (35.6%), and Odesa Oblast (34.3%).
The best performance among farms of all categories in the livestock sector was recorded in Kyiv (9.1%), Cherkasy (8.2%), Dnipropetrovsk (6.6%), Chernihiv (7%), and Kirovohrad (5.9%) regions.
The most significant decline in production among farms of all categories in the livestock sector was recorded in the Donetsk (53.9%), Zakarpattia (32.9%), and Kherson (16.3%) regions.
As previously reported, agricultural production in Ukraine decreased by 6.8% in 2025 compared to 2024.
AGRICULTURE, crop production, livestock farming, PRODUCTION, State Statistics Service
