The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy for January-December 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Such key aspects as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends were considered.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance
Ukraine’s economy showed moderate growth in 2024 despite ongoing challenges related to war and external economic factors. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year . Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 7.66 trillion, with a deflator at 12.3%.
“Despite the challenges associated with the war and unstable geopolitical situation, Ukraine has managed to hold macroeconomic stability. GDP growth of 2.9% is a signal of economic recovery and investor confidence,” Maksim Urakin noted.
Inflation remains a significant problem for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 11.2% in November . Consumer prices rose by 1.4% in December compared to November.
“The rise in inflation is a worrying signal. It is the result not only of internal factors, but also of external pressures: rising import prices, energy risks, as well as exchange rate fluctuations. The policy of the National Bank will play a crucial role in stabilizing the situation,” the expert explained.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period of 2023, reaching $25.239 billion . Exports rose 16.5% to $38.423 billion and imports rose 11% to $63.662 billion.
“The increase in the negative trade balance suggests that imports are outpacing exports. Ukraine should focus on expanding its export potential and supporting strategic industries: agro-industrial complex, IT and machine building,” Urakin emphasized.
Ukraine’s international reserves reached $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, having increased by 9.7% in December.
“This is a positive signal. Reserves are growing due to receipts from international partners. This ensures macro-financial stability and stability of the hryvnia,” the expert said.
Global economy
According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth in 2024 amounted to 3.2% . However, geopolitical instability, trade wars and slowing growth in key economies continue to put pressure on the outlook.
“The global economy is recovering but remains vulnerable. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates and lower consumer demand in developed countries are the main factors of instability,” said Urakin.
The U.S. economy showed stable growth. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, helped by a rise in consumer spending
“Strong domestic demand is a driver of the U.S. economy. However, rising debt burdens and expensive credit could slow the momentum in 2025,” the economist said.
The Eurozone economy showed weak growth rates. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter .
India continues to show stable growth. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP grew by 8.2% in 2024.
China’s economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
“China needs to restart domestic consumption. Without demand stimulus, growth may slow down even more,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion
Economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for 2024 show a mixed picture. GDP growth and positive signals in global markets are combined with inflation risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from multiple uncertainties.
“For Ukraine, the key challenges remain structural reforms, increasing exports, modernizing infrastructure and actively attracting investment. This is the key to sustainable economic growth in 2025 and beyond,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
According to the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global wheat production in 2025 will amount to 795 mln tonnes, which is the same as in 2024. The organization recorded mixed trends among the largest producing countries.
In the EU, production is expected to increase to 135.5 million tons (+12% yoy) due to the expansion of crops and improved weather conditions. At the same time, the FAO points to the lack of precipitation in the eastern part of the bloc, which may affect the final yield.
In Russia, wheat production is expected to decline due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage. A similar situation is observed in the US, where drought has affected winter wheat crops, which will lead to a decrease in the overall harvest.
According to FAO, wheat production in Ukraine will be below the five-year average. The main reasons are the ongoing armed conflict and dry weather conditions.
In Canada, wheat acreage is expected to increase due to price incentives, but this will be balanced by lower yields. Production will remain at the level of 2024, but will exceed the five-year average.
FAO predicts that India’s harvest will reach a record level of 115.4 million tons. The growth is due to the expansion of acreage, government subsidies and high market prices.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the harvest is expected to decline amid a lack of precipitation. In Argentina, production is expected to increase due to the expansion of crops. In Australia, a moderate decline in harvest volume is forecast, but the figure will remain above 30 million tons.
According to the FAO, the global grain production in 2024 amounted to 2.849 billion tons, which is 0.3% lower year-on-year. The forecast of grain consumption in 2024/25 marketing year is 2.868 billion tons, including 1.534 billion tons of feed grains (+1.1% yoy) and 795.4 million tons of wheat, which is slightly lower than the previous season.
According to national sources, Serbia plans to keep the wheat harvest within 3 mln tons. It is expected that weather conditions will allow to achieve above-average results. The country will continue to export to Italy, Turkey and other countries in the region.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club released the analysis of the main wheat producers by countries for the period of 1991-2023 – https://youtube.com/shorts/NMwidrCI6iY?si=hE3BXbdvWOG30Nld
Over the past six months – from September 2024 to March 2025 – the debt of the state-owned enterprise Guaranteed Buyer (Guaranteed Buyer) to renewable energy producers operating at the feed-in tariff has decreased by 37.7% to UAH 22.3 billion from UAH 35.8 billion.
This was announced by Artem Nekrasov, Head of Guaranteed Buyer, at a meeting of the Energy Development League press club on March 27.
According to him, the state-owned enterprise’s settlements with renewable energy generation have increased to 93% since the beginning of 2025, compared to 86% last year. In turn, NPC Ukrenergo’s payments to Guaranteed Buyer for renewable energy services in 2025 increased to 85.2% from 72.9% in 2024.
“There are positive developments. For the first time in my memory, a weighted tariff for electricity transmission services (for Ukrenergo – IF-U) was approved for this year. In addition, we started signing contracts with Ukrenergo not in 1.5-2 years, as it used to be before, but, for example, the January contract has already been signed and payments have already been made,” the CEO said.
According to Nekrasov, the development of the renewable energy market largely depends on the repayment of debts that have historically been accumulated after 2020.
He recalled that in 2020, the government and investors in renewable energy signed a memorandum in which the state confirmed payment guarantees. In particular, the government decided to add an additional part of the funds to the system operator’s tariff, which the state will compensate from the state budget. However, every year, when adopting the state budget, MPs exclude this provision from consideration, which has resulted in the NPC’s tariff remaining underfunded for several years, and Guaranteed Buyer’s debts to market participants are equal to Ukrenergo’s debts to Guaranteed Buyer.
Nekrasov said that Guaranteed Buyer will continue its activities to resolve the debt problem, for which a special roadmap will be developed in a dialogue with market participants.
“Regarding the debts of previous periods, it should be understood that no one in a country at war will immediately raise UAH 15-20 billion to repay them. However, a memorandum or a roadmap for debt repayment will be developed at the level of renewable energy companies, Guaranteed Buyer, Ukrenergo, the Ministry of Energy and the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission, which establishes the sources of payments,” the Chairman summarized. According to him, such a map will include reasonable repayment periods and clear sources of funding.
In turn, the positive dynamics in Guaranteed Buyer’s settlements with market participants was also confirmed at the meeting by the heads of specialized associations and owners of renewable energy installations.
“The development of solar energy is facilitated by the gradual reduction of debt to renewable energy sources, as well as the fact that solar equipment can be installed quite quickly and in many cases does not require special permits,” said Vladyslav Sokolovskyi, Chairman of the Board of the Solar Energy Association of Ukraine.
For his part, Andriy Konechenkov, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, said that wind energy will receive a new wave of development in 2025, which will yield qualitative results in 2026-2027.
“Currently, six wind farms are under construction in different regions of Ukraine,” he added.
The event was supported by the information and analytical center Experts Club.
EXPERTS CLUB, Guaranteed Buyer, RENEWABLES, UKRENERGO, ГОЛІЗДРА, Некрасов
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a significant increase in the US national debt over the next 30 years. According to CBO’s forecast, the national debt will reach 100% of GDP in the current fiscal year and increase to a record 107% of GDP in fiscal year 2029. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 156% of GDP.
“Rising public debt will slow economic growth, lead to higher interest payments to foreign debt holders, and pose significant risks to budget and economic projections,” the CBO said in its review.
Earlier this week, international rating agency Moody’s warned that import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump could prevent the country from getting its growing budget deficit under control.
The CBO expects the US budget deficit to increase to 7.3% of GDP by 2055 from 6.4% of GDP in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 6.2% of GDP.
The CBO forecast assumes a slowdown in US economic growth this year to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2024. Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
In February, global steel production decreased by 3.4% (to 144.7 million tons). The top ten largest producers saw a decline in volumes, except for India (+6.3%) and South Korea (+0.7%).
Top 10 steel producing countries in February 2025:
China – 78.92 million tons (-3.3%)
India – 12.66 million tons (+6.3%)
Japan – 6.4 million tons (-8.5%)
USA – 6.03 million tons (-7%)
Russia – 5.8 million tons (-3.4%)
South Korea – 5.15 million tons (+0.7%)
Turkey – 2.92 million tons (-5.6%)
Brazil – 2.72 million tons (-1.6%)
Germany – 2.7 million tons (-13.5%)
Italy – 1.81 million tons (-0.6%)
Overall, in January-February 2025, global steel production amounted to 301.96 million tons, down 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
The full dynamics of steel production by the top twenty countries of the world is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
In February 2025, Ukrainian steelmakers produced 572 thousand tons of steel, up 7.5% from February 2024. However, volumes decreased by 6.4% compared to January.
According to Worldsteel, Ukraine ranked 21st among 69 steel-producing countries. In the first two months of 2025, the country increased production by 9.9% to 1.183 million tons.
The full dynamics of steel production by the world’s top twenty countries is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
